Declining global warming effects on the phenology of spring leaf unfolding
Fu, Yongshuo H.. (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Zhao, Hongfang (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Piao, Shilong (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Peaucelle, Marc (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environment)
Peng, Shushi (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Zhou, Guiyun (Dian zi ke ji da xue (Chengdu, China))
Ciais, Philippe (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Huang, Mengtian (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Menzel, Annette (Technische Universität München)
Peñuelas, Josep (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Song, Yang (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Department of Atmospheric Sciences)
Vitasse, Yann (Université de Neuchâtel. Institut de Géographie)
Zeng, Zhenzhong (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science)
Janssens, Ivan (Universiteit Antwerpen. Departement Biologie)

Data:	2015
Resum:	Earlier spring leaf unfolding is a frequently observed response of northern trees to climate warming1,2,3,4. Many deciduous tree species require chilling for dormancy release, and warming-related reductions in chilling may counteract the advance of leaf unfolding in response to warming5,6. Empirical evidence for this, however, is limited to saplings or twigs in climate-controlled chambers7,8. Using long-term in situ observations of leaf unfolding for seven dominant European tree species at 1,245 sites, we show here that the apparent response of leaf unfolding to climate warming (ST, expressed in days advance per °C) has significantly decreased from 1980 to 2013 in all monitored tree species. Averaged across all species and sites, ST decreased by 40% from 4. 0 ± 1. 8 days °C-1 during 1980-1994 to 2. 3 ± 1. 6 days °C-1 during 1999-2013. The declining ST was also simulated by chilling-based phenology models, albeit with a weaker decline (24%-30%) than observed in situ. The reduction in ST is likely to be partly attributable to reduced chilling. Nonetheless, other mechanisms may also play a role, such as 'photoperiod limitation' mechanisms that may become ultimately limiting when leaf unfolding dates occur too early in the season. Our results provide empirical evidence for a declining ST, but also suggest that the predicted strong winter warming in the future may further reduce ST and therefore result in a slowdown in the advance of tree spring phenology.
Ajuts:	European Commission 610028 European Commission 282250
Drets:	Tots els drets reservats.
Llengua:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió sotmesa a revisió
Publicat a:	Nature, Vol. 526 (Oct. 2015) , p. 104-107, ISSN 1476-4687

DOI: 10.1038/nature15402

Pre-print 31 p, 2.6 MB

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