Systemic trade risk of critical resources
Klimek, Peter (Medical University of Vienna)
Obersteiner, Michael (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Àustria))
Thurner, Stefan (Medical University of Vienna)

Data:	2015
Ajuts:	European Commission 317532 European Commission 318132 European Commission 610028
Nota:	In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, the role of strongly interconnected markets in causing systemic instability has been increasingly acknowledged. Trade networks of commodities are susceptible to cascades of supply shocks that increase systemic trade risks and pose a threat to geopolitical stability. We show that supply risk, scarcity, and price volatility of nonfuel mineral resources are intricately connected with the structure of the worldwide trade networks spanned by these resources. At the global level, we demonstrate that the scarcity of a resource is closely related to the susceptibility of the trade network with respect to cascading shocks. At the regional level, we find that, to some extent,region-specific price volatility and supply risk can be understood by centrality measures that capture systemic trade risk. The resources associated with the highest systemic trade risk indicators are often those that are produced as by products of major metals. We identify significant strategic shortcomings in the management of systemic trade risk, in particular in the European Union.
Drets:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, sempre que no sigui amb finalitats comercials, i sempre que es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Llengua:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Matèria:	Systemic risk ; Critical resources ; Network effects ; Trade risk ; Non-fuel mineral resources
Publicat a:	Science advances, Vol. 1, Issue 10 (November 2015) , ISSN 2375-2548

DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1500522
PMID: 26702431

8 p, 501.2 KB

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