ERC Synergy grant - 2013 - 610028: Quantify the responses of ecosystems and society in a world increasingly rich in N and C but limited in Phosphorus

P is an earthbound and finite element and the prospect of constrained access to mineable P resources has already triggered geopolitical disputes. In contrast to P, availabilities of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) to ecosystems are rapidly increasing in most areas of the globe. The resulting imminent change in the stoichiometry of available elements will have no equivalent in the Earth’s history and will bear profound, yet, unknown consequences for life, the Earth System and human society. The ongoing shifts in C:N:P balances in ecosystems will necessarily affect the structure, function and diversity of the Earth system. P-market crises might put pressure on the global food system and create environmental ripple effects ranging from expansion of agricultural land to P-price-induced changes in land management exacerbating the stoichiometric resource imbalance. Yet, the impacts of this unprecedented human disturbance of elemental stoichiometry remain a research enigma. IMBALANCE-P will provide improved understanding and quantitative foresight to formulate a range of policy options that will contain the risks and mitigate the consequences of stoichiometric imbalances in the Earth System. It will integrate some of Europe's leading integrated assessment and Earth system models, calibrated using ecosystem nutrient limitation data obtained from field experiments. The project will establish an international process of science-based P-diplomacy.

Latest additions:
2017-11-22
15:03
8 p, 1.2 MB Carbon and nitrogen allocation shifts in plants and soils along aridity and fertility gradients in grasslands of China / Luo, wENTAO (Zhongguo ke xue yuan. Erguna Forest-Steppe Ecotone Research Station) ; Li, Mai-He (Zhongguo ke xue yuan. Erguna Forest-Steppe Ecotone Research Station) ; Sardans i Galobart, Jordi (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals) ; Lü, Xiao-Tao (Zhongguo ke xue yuan. Erguna Forest-Steppe Ecotone Research Station) ; Wang, Chao (Zhongguo ke xue yuan. Erguna Forest-Steppe Ecotone Research Station) ; Peñuelas, Josep (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals) ; Wang, Zhengwen (Zhongguo ke xue yuan. Erguna Forest-Steppe Ecotone Research Station) ; Han, Xing-Guo (Zhongguo ke xue yuan. Erguna Forest-Steppe Ecotone Research Station) ; Jiang, Yong (Zhongguo ke xue yuan. Erguna Forest-Steppe Ecotone Research Station)
Plant carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) stoichiometry play an important role in the maintenance of ecosystem structure and function. To decipher the influence of changing environment on plant C and N stoichiometry at the subcontinental scale, we studied the shoot and root C and N stoichiometry in two widely distributed and dominant genera along a 2,200-km climatic gradient in China's grasslands. [...]
2017 - 10.1002/ece3.3245
Ecology and evolution, Vol. 7, issue 17 (2017) , p. 6927-6934  
2017-11-06
17:48
Icelandic grasslands as long-term C sinks under elevated organic N inputs / Leblans, Niki I. W. (Universiteit Antwerpen. Departement Biologie) ; Aerts, Rien (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) ; Vicca, Sara (Universiteit Antwerpen. Departement Biologie) ; Magnússon, Borgthór (Icelandic Institute of Natural History (Gardabaer, Islàndia))
About 10% of the anthropogenic CO₂ emissions have been absorbed by northern terrestrial ecosystems during the past decades. It has been hypothesized that part of this increasing carbon (C) sink is caused by the alleviation of nitrogen (N) limitation by increasing anthropogenic N inputs. [...]
2017 - 10.1007/s10533-017-0362-5
Biogeochemistry, Vol. 134, issue 3 (Aug. 2017) , p. 279-299  
2017-10-27
16:37
Velocity of change in vegetation productivity over northern high latitudes / Huang, Mengtian (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science) ; Piao, Shilong (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science) ; Janssens, Ivan A. (Universiteit Antwerpen. Departement Biologie) ; Zhu, Zaichun (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science) ; Wang, Tao (Zhongguo ke xue yuan. Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research) ; Wu, Donghai (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science) ; Ciais, Philippe (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement) ; Myneni, Ranga B. (Boston University. Department of Earth and Environment) ; Peaucelle, Marc (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals) ; Peng, Shushi (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science) ; Yang, Hui (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science) ; Peñuelas, Josep (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals)
Warming is projected to increase the productivity of northern ecosystems. However, knowledge on whether the northward displacement of vegetation productivity isolines matches that of temperature isolines is still limited. [...]
2017 - 10.1038/s41559-017-0328-y
Nature ecology and evolution, Vol. 1 (Nov. 2017) , p. 1649–1654  
2017-10-23
16:38
39 p, 6.6 MB ORCHILEAK (revision 3875) : a new model branch to simulate carbon transfers along the terrestrial–aquatic continuum of the Amazon basin / Lauerwald, Ronny (University of Exeter (Gran Bretanya)) ; Regnier, Pierre (Université Libre de Bruxelles) ; Camino Serrano, Marta (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals) ; Guenet, Bertrand (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement) ; Guimberteau, Matthieu (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement) ; Ducharne, Agnès (Université Pierre et Marie CURIE) ; Ciais, Philippe (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement)
Lateral transfer of carbon (C) from terrestrial ecosystems into the inland water network is an important component of the global C cycle, which sustains a large aquatic CO2 evasion flux fuelled by the decomposition of allochthonous C inputs. [...]
2017 - 0.5194/gmd-10-3821-2017
Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 2017  
2017-10-18
17:33
26 p, 1.5 MB A representation of the phosphorus cycle for ORCHIDEE (revision 4520) / Goll, Daniel (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environment) ; Peñuelas, Josep (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Biologia Animal, de Biologia Vegetal i d'Ecologia) ; Vuichard, Nicolas (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environment) ; Maignan, F. (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environment) ; Jornet-Puig, Albert (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environment) ; Sardans i Galobart, Jordi (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals) ; Violette, Aurélie (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environment) ; Peng, Sushi (Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry) ; Sun, Yan (Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry) ; Kvakic, Marko (Institut national de la recherche agronomique. Interactions Sol Plante Atmosphère) ; Gimberteau, Matthieu (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environment) ; Guenet, Bertrand (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement) ; Zaehle, Soenke (Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry) ; Peñuelas, Josep (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals) ; Janssens, Ivan A. (Universiteit Antwerpen. Departement Biologie) ; Ciais, Philippe (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement)
Land surface models rarely incorporate the terrestrial phosphorus cycle and its interactions with the carbon cycle, despite the extensive scientific debate about the importance of nitrogen and phosphorus supply for future land carbon uptake. [...]
2017 - 0.5194/gmd-10-3745-2017
Geoscientific model development, Vol. 10 (Oct. 2017) , p. 3745–3770  
2017-10-18
17:06
11 p, 1.4 MB Assessing the land resource-food price nexus of the Sustainable Development Goals / Obersteiner, Michael (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)
The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) call for a comprehensive new approach to development rooted in planetary boundaries, equity, and inclusivity. The wide scope of the SDGs will necessitate unprecedented integration of siloed policy portfolios to work at international, regional, and national levels toward multiple goals and mitigate the conflicts that arise from competing resource demands. [...]
2016 - 10.1126/sciadv.150149
Science advances, 2016  
2017-10-18
17:02
20 p, 4.1 MB Global gridded crop model evaluation : benchmarking, skills, deficiencies and implications / Müller, Christoph (Postdam-Institut fUr Klimafolgenforschung) ; Elliott, Joshua (University of Chicago) ; Chryssanthacopoulos, James (University of Chicago) ; Arneth, Almut (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology) ; Balkovic, Juraj (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) ; Ciais, Philippe (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement) ; Deryng, Delphine (University of Chicago) ; Folberth, Christian (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) ; Glotter, Michael (University of Chicago. Department of the Geophysical Sciences) ; Hoek, Steven (Alterra Wageningen University. Earth Observation and Environmental Informatics) ; Iizumi, Toshichika (Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences (Tsukuba)) ; Izaurralde, Roberto C. (University of Maryland. Department of Geographical Sciences) ; Jones, Curtis (University of Maryland. Department of Geographical Sciences) ; Khabarov, Nikolay (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) ; Lawrence, Peter (National Center for Atmospheric Research (Boulder, USA)) ; Liu, Wenfeng (Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology) ; Olin, Stefan (Lunds universitet) ; Pugh, Thomas A. M. (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology) ; Ray, Deepak K. (University of Minnesota. Institute on the Environment) ; Reddy, Ashwan (University of Maryland. Department of Geographical Sciences) ; Rosenzweig, Cynthia (Columbia University. Center for Climate Systems Research) ; Ruane, Alex C. (Columbia University. Center for Climate Systems Research) ; Sakurai, Gen (Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences (Tsukuba)) ; Schmid, Erwin (Universität für Bodenkultur Wien) ; Song, Carol X. (Purdue University. Rosen Center for Advanced Computing) ; Wang, Xuhui (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement) ; Wit, Allard de (Alterra Wageningen University. Earth Observation and Environmental Informatics) ; Yang, Hong (Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology)
Crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop yields at the global scale, but so far there is no general framework on how to assess model performance. Here we evaluate the simulation results of 14 global gridded crop modeling groups that have contributed historic crop yield simulations for maize, wheat, rice and soybean to the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). [...]
2017 - 10.5194/gmd-10-1403-2017
Geoscientific model development, p. 1403–1422, Vol. 10 (Oct. 2017)  
2017-10-18
16:59
19 p, 1.0 MB Gross changes in forest area shape the future carbon balance of tropical forests / Li, Wei (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement) ; Ciais, Philippe (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement) ; Yue, Chao (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de L’Environnement) ; Gasser, Thomas (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) ; Peng, Shushi (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science) ; Bastos, Ana (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement)
Bookkeeping models are used to estimate land-use change (LUC) carbon fluxes (ELUC). These models combine time series of areas subject to different LUC types with response curves of carbon pools in ecosystems and harvested products after a unit change of land use. [...]
2017 - 10.5194/bg-2017-291
Biogeosciences, Discussion started: 23 August 2017  
2017-10-18
16:56
23 p, 411.3 KB Analytically tractable climate-carbon cycle feedbacks under 21st century anthropogenic forcing / Lade, Steven J. (Stockholm University. Stockholm Resilience Centre) ; Donges, Jonathan F. Donges (Stockholm University. Stockholm Resilience Centre) ; Fetzer, Ingo (Stockholm University. Stockholm Resilience Centre) ; Anderies, John M. (Arizona State University. School of Sustainability) ; Beer, Christian (Stockholm University. Bolin Centre for Climate Research) ; Cornell, Sarah E. (Stockholm University. Stockholm Resilience Centre) ; Gasser, Thomas (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) ; Norberg, Jon (Stockholm University. Stockholm Resilience Centre) ; Richardson, Katherine Richardson (Statens Naturhistoriske Museum) ; Steffen, Will (Stockholm University. Stockholm Resilience Centre)
Changes to climate-carbon cycle feedbacks may significantly affect the Earth System’s response to greenhouse gas emissions. These feedbacks are usually analysed from numerical output of complex and arguably opaque Earth System Models (ESMs). [...]
2017 - 10.5194/esd-2017-78
Earth system dynamics, Discussion started:12 Sep 2017  
2017-10-18
16:43
19 p, 2.2 MB Accounting for the climate-carbon feedback in emission metrics / Gasser, Thomas (Université Paris-Saclay) ; Peters, Glen P. (CICERO Senter for Klimaforskning) ; Fuglestvedt, Jan S. (CICERO Senter for Klimaforskning) ; Collins, William J. (University of Reading. Department of Meteorology) ; Shindell, Drew T. (Duke University. Nicholas School of the Environment) ; Ciais, Philippe (Université Paris-Saclay)
Most emission metrics have previously been inconsistently estimated by including the climate–carbon feedback for the reference gas (i. e. CO2) but not the other species (e. g. CH4). In the fifth assessment report of the IPCC, a first attempt was made to consistently account for the climate–carbon feedback in emission metrics. [...]
2017 - 10.5194/esd-8-235-2017
Earth system dynamics, Vol 8, issue 2 (2017) , p. 235-253