1399ea97cae1d62e2c138ae218635056 DiFelice_et_al_2018_Sustainability_decarbonisation_eu.pdf 0bb68a238a3559bdd86bc9115b099e8ed47b81cf DiFelice_et_al_2018_Sustainability_decarbonisation_eu.pdf 6f2de07c7fb53e3c8d2a0f84f21809912edf1ecfa44ccec3da5628f83ab64edc DiFelice_et_al_2018_Sustainability_decarbonisation_eu.pdf Title: Deep Decarbonisation from a Biophysical Perspective: GHG Emissions of a Renewable Electricity Transformation in the EU Subject: In light of climate change and security concerns, decarbonisation has become a priority for industrialised countries. In the European Union (EU), decarbonisation scenarios used to support decision-making predict a steady decrease in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, mostly driven by changes in production mixes and improvements in efficiency. In the EU’s decarbonisation pathways, the power sector plays a large role, reaching zero emissions by 2050. From a biophysical perspective, decarbonisation becomes not just a matter of replacing carbon-intensive with carbon-neutral electricity flows, but also a matter of building and maintaining new infrastructure (funds) which, in turn, is associated with GHG emissions. By not accounting for the emissions associated with funds, particularly those required to increase grid flexibility, scenarios used to inform decarbonisation narratives in the EU are missing a key part of the picture. We show that a rapid and deep decarbonisation of the EU’s power sector through a production-side transition between the years 2020 and 2050 leads to cumulative emissions of the order of 21–25 Gt of CO2 equivalent, within a range of approximately 35–45%. The results are obtained by modelling two decarbonisation pathways where grid flexibility increases either through storage or through curtailment. The analysis suggests that scenarios informing decarbonisation policies in the EU are optimistic and may lead to a narrow focus on sustainable production transformations. This minimises the perceived urgency of reducing overall energy consumption to stay within safe carbon budgets. Keywords: modelling; science-policy interface; grid flexibility; bio-economics; energy transition; storage; curtailment Author: Louisa Jane Di Felice, Maddalena Ripa and Mario Giampietro Creator: LaTeX with hyperref package Producer: pdfTeX-1.40.18 CreationDate: Mon Oct 15 08:07:04 2018 CEST ModDate: Mon Oct 15 08:07:04 2018 CEST Tagged: no UserProperties: no Suspects: no Form: none JavaScript: no Pages: 17 Encrypted: no Page size: 595.276 x 841.89 pts (A4) Page rot: 0 File size: 2194400 bytes Optimized: no PDF version: 1.5 name type encoding emb sub uni object ID ------------------------------------ ----------------- ---------------- --- --- --- --------- QVVHYJ+URWPalladioL-Ital Type 1 Custom yes yes no 87 0 KSQSAZ+URWPalladioL-Bold Type 1 Custom yes yes no 88 0 MDKXMN+URWPalladioL-Roma Type 1 Custom yes yes no 89 0 CIQLLF+VnURWPalladioL Type 1 Custom yes yes no 90 0 IZBVAO+TimesNewRomanPS-BoldItalicMT Type 1C WinAnsi yes yes no 95 0 MCBCCI+SourceSansRoman-Regular Type 1C Custom yes yes no 112 0 MCBCCM+SourceSansRoman.613wght Type 1C Custom yes yes no 113 0 MCBCCO+SourceSansRoman-Bold Type 1C Custom yes yes no 114 0 BCDEEE+PalatinoLinotype-Roman TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 202 0 BCDFEE+PalatinoLinotype-Italic TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 203 0 BCDGEE+PalatinoLinotype-Bold TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 204 0 BCDHEE+PalatinoLinotype-Roman CID TrueType Identity-H yes yes yes 205 0 BCDEEE+PalatinoLinotype-Roman TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 252 0 BCDFEE+PalatinoLinotype-Italic TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 253 0 BCDGEE+PalatinoLinotype-Bold TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 254 0 BCDHEE+PalatinoLinotype-Roman CID TrueType Identity-H yes yes yes 255 0 CZKGAS+CMR10 Type 1 Builtin yes yes no 334 0 QSKIJG+CMSY10 Type 1 Builtin yes yes no 335 0 QQXUPP+PazoMath Type 1 Builtin yes yes no 370 0 BCDEEE+PalatinoLinotype-Roman TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 392 0 BCDFEE+PalatinoLinotype-Italic TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 393 0 BCDGEE+PalatinoLinotype-Bold TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 394 0 ArialMT TrueType WinAnsi no no no 395 0 BCDJEE+Calibri TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 396 0 BCDEEE+PalatinoLinotype-Roman TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 414 0 BCDFEE+PalatinoLinotype-Italic TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 415 0 BCDGEE+PalatinoLinotype-Bold TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 416 0 ArialMT TrueType WinAnsi no no no 417 0 BCDJEE+Calibri TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 418 0 BCDEEE+PalatinoLinotype-Roman TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 453 0 BCDFEE+PalatinoLinotype-Italic TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 454 0 BCDGEE+PalatinoLinotype-Bold TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 455 0 BCDJEE+Calibri TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 456 0 BCDEEE+PalatinoLinotype-Roman TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 472 0 BCDFEE+PalatinoLinotype-Italic TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 473 0 BCDGEE+PalatinoLinotype-Bold TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 474 0 BCDJEE+Calibri TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 475 0 HYYHEA+CMBSY10 Type 1 Builtin yes yes no 495 0 java.lang.ClassCastException: edu.harvard.hul.ois.jhove.module.pdf.PdfSimpleObject cannot be cast to edu.harvard.hul.ois.jhove.module.pdf.PdfDictionary at edu.harvard.hul.ois.jhove.module.PdfModule.readDocCatalogDict(PdfModule.java:1284) at edu.harvard.hul.ois.jhove.module.PdfModule.parse(PdfModule.java:525) at edu.harvard.hul.ois.jhove.JhoveBase.processFile(JhoveBase.java:825) at edu.harvard.hul.ois.jhove.JhoveBase.process(JhoveBase.java:614) at edu.harvard.hul.ois.jhove.JhoveBase.dispatch(JhoveBase.java:465) at Jhove.main(Jhove.java:296) Jhove (Rel. 1.6, 2011-01-04) Date: 2018-10-25 04:45:52 CEST RepresentationInformation: DiFelice_et_al_2018_Sustainability_decarbonisation_eu.pdf ReportingModule: BYTESTREAM, Rel. 1.3 (2007-04-10) LastModified: 2018-10-17 16:01:48 CEST Size: 2194400 Format: bytestream Status: Well-Formed and valid SignatureMatches: PDF-hul MIMEtype: application/octet-stream Checksum: 44cf5561 Type: CRC32 Checksum: 1399ea97cae1d62e2c138ae218635056 Type: MD5 Checksum: 0bb68a238a3559bdd86bc9115b099e8ed47b81cf Type: SHA-1