Energy Research & Social Science 59 (2020) 101279 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Energy Research & Social Science journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/erss Original research article Socio-technical discourses of European electricity decarbonization: T Contesting narrative credibility and legitimacy with quantitative story- telling Ansel Rennera, , Mario Giampietroa,b ⁎ a Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, Catalunya, Spain b Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Catalunya, Spain ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Keywords: This paper presents an innovative approach to the responsible use of quantitative analysis when dealing with the Quantitative story-telling governance of sustainability. Rather than using complicated models which try to predict and control the future Renewable energy evolution of complex adaptive systems, quantitative story-telling is proposed to check, first of all, the plausibility of Storage proposed policies. As a case study, we check the plausibility of ‘a radical decarbonization of the European economy Complexity based on a quick deployment of alternative sources of electrical energy generation’. Although our case study includes a Electricity high-level set of quantitative results, it is primarily methodological. The procedure of quantitative story-telling in- cludes: (1) identification of the narratives used to inform policy; (2) identification of the relevant factors determining the feasibility, viability and desirability of expected results; (3) a quantitative analysis which falsifies at least one of these three factors, indicating an implausibility of the expected results; and (4) identification of knowledge gaps in the existing discussions over the issue. The modern European energy system does need an urgent and radical transfor- mation. However, before imposing drastic and ambitious policies, it is essential to check the quality of the diagnosis. Our analysis flags the existence of a few reasons for concern with regard to the current story-telling. 1. Introduction technological innovations driven by the invisible hand of the market. The expensive transition experiment done in Germany – the The European Commission maintains a flagship initiative to trans- Energiewende – is an illustration of this worry. Indeed, according to the form the European Union into a resource efficient and low-carbon German Federal Court of Auditors, the Energiewende has thus far been economy [1]. It contends that, within a few decades, economic growth “characterized by inefficiency” [6]. In concluding statement, the Court and energy use must be decoupled. Simultaneously, it contends that an states that the German Ministry of Economics and Energy has “so far not improvement of both economic competitiveness and energy security taken any steps to ensure that inefficient programmes which at the same time must be realized. Unprecedented societal determination and commit- contribute little to energy transition are phased out” (emphasis added) [6]. ment would be needed to realize such a heroic energy transition [2]. At the same time, significant economic investments (nearly €200 bn) in Entire sectors of the economy would necessarily reinvent themselves alternative energy sources in Germany has led to the highest electricity inside a very short period of time. A reflection on the Commission's prices in Europe [7] without significantly reducing emissions levels [8]. narrative choice reveals, however, that their ambitious energy policy This experience, including societal hesitance to question the decisions package for the European Union is based exclusively on structural and of the Energiewende policies, flags the existence of a systemic problem technological changes. Accordingly, the contextual understanding of with the quality of the scientific evidence used to inform the process of ‘sectoral reinvention’ is both reductionist and incomplete [3–5]. policymaking when dealing with complex issues [9]. Solutions inspired Perhaps more worrisome than this observation is the expectation by economics, such of the levelized cost of electricity – based on the that the Commission's transition is to be achieved by a series of assumption that “electricity output is perfectly interchangeable and Abbreviations: Li-ion, lithium-ion; GDP, gross domestic product; kW, kilowatt; MW, megawatt; GW, gigawatt; TW, terawatt; h, hour; yr, year; Gt, gigatonne; bn, billion; CO2-eq., carbon dioxide equivalent; bn, billion; MAGIC, Moving Towards Adaptive Governance in Complexity ⁎ Corresponding author at: Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB), ICTA-ICP (Edifici Z) Z/125, Carrer de les Columnes (Campus UAB), Cerdanyola del Vallès, 08193, Barcelona, Spain. E-mail address: ansel.renner@gmail.com (A. Renner). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2019.101279 Received 28 March 2019; Received in revised form 26 August 2019; Accepted 1 September 2019 2214-6296/ © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/BY/4.0/). A. Renner and M. Giampietro Energy Research & Social Science 59 (2020) 101279 homogeneous” [10], have not yet solved the problem [11]. the decision to explore the plausibility of that claim is timely and ad- The example of the Energiewende illustrates the risk of informing vantageous. Importantly, the fact that we check the plausibility of this policy with an incomplete hegemonic storyline. In particular, the story does not mean that we endorse or oppose its problem framing or Energiewende’s storyline is dominated by the representation of the any of the proposed solutions. We do not necessarily endorse nor op- performance of an electrical grid based on economic narratives [12]. pose a centralized electrical grid based on wind and solar primary en- Alas, when addressing sustainability issues it is unavoidable to face ergy sources. “wicked problems” [13] entailing the coexistence of a virtually infinite The text of the paper is organized as described in the following. set of relevant issues that should be considered simultaneously. When Firstly, we introduce the concept of quantitative story-telling and how non-equivalent dimensions and scales of analysis and legitimate but we conceptualize the problems associated with the scaling-up of the divergent expressions of concerns must be considered simultaneously, it supply of electrical energy generated by intermittent sources into the becomes difficult to derive an uncontested definition of what should be actual typologies of electrical grids. Secondly, we provide a quantitative considered rational and what should be considered fact [14–16]. The analysis of the plausibility of the proposed strategies for a quick tran- Cartesian dream of prediction and control [17,18] clashes against the sition to a low-carbon economy based on a massive surge in the supply complexity [13] associated with the sustainability predicament. A si- of alternative energy. Thirdly and finally, a quantitative story-telling tuation is created where ‘facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes based on the analysis of the results suggests that there are serious high and decisions urgent’ and the use of science for policy becomes concerns about the claims endorsed by European Union policies. This problematic [19]. In general, when dealing with large doses of un- result is intended as a warning that a political strategy based on the certainty, a massive generation of expectations translates into a poli- mobilization of expectations about results that are not reachable in the tical activity with the goal of mobilizing resources in order to ‘colonize’ promised time horizon may lead to the choice of unwise and unfair the future of the society [20]. Jasanoff and Kim refer to this generation policies. of societal expectations as the establishment of ‘social imaginaries’. Institutional imaginaries, they further say, often come with technolo- 2. Methods and problem conceptualization gical promises [21]. The establishment of a sociotechnical imaginary is an influential act 2.1. A new method of quantitative analysis insofar as it creates and manages future expectations [22]. Expecta- tions, through their creation of “dynamism and momentum” [20], play Any macro-level assessment which involves the scaling-up of elec- an essential role in “guiding technological innovation and sustainability trical energy generation depends largely on its specific expectations of transitions” [23]. In the context of a sustainability transition, an ag- growth in the consumption of electrical energy. Relevant assessments gressive mobilization of expectations translates into an ideological en- are required to consider determining factors of both demand and dorsement of justification narratives. Once expectations have attained a supply. On the demand side, the growth of various unique load forms is normative status, they need not be justified nor reflected upon [24]. of primary importance. For example, industrial, transportation, com- Any myths that may or may not exist in support of normative ex- mercial and residential components are frequently individuated. On the pectations are then no longer given space for critical and hesitative supply side, the factors determining the availability of resources are of reflection [23,25]. In the case of the Energiewende, a massive set of primary importance. For example, differentiating conventional and expectations has been created. Conflicting those lofty expectations with renewable resources and consideration of the growth of transmission widespread failures has recently lead to substantial disillusionment. To and distribution infrastructures are both frequent procedures. Even be sure, Kay Scheller, the president of the German Federal Court of more complex than these primarily engineering aspects, however, is the Auditors, is currently concerned that “voters could soon lose all faith in analysis of how changes in the demand and changes in the supply can the government because of [the Energiewende’s] massive failure” [12]. be integrated during a sector transition when considering several di- Given their urgent nature, societal disillusionment with a renewable mensions of analysis. Crucial dimensions of analysis include the desir- energy transition is quite an unfortunate and undesirable thing. ability of the specific mix of social practices as well as that mix's re- Janda and Toupizi [26] suggest that learning-type storylines can sulting economic viability and biophysical feasibility. Such an gainfully problematize hero-type storylines such as those of the Eur- assessment requires characterizing the pattern of electrical energy end opean Commission and Energiewende. Indeed, learning-type storylines uses on the demand side versus adjustments taking place in conven- are useful for challenging hegemonic narratives. The intent of pro- tional sources. In turn, this requires consideration of the economics and blematizing with learning storylines is not, however, to undermine. financials of fossil and nuclear fuel as well as renewable energy sources, Rather, the intent of problematizing is to balance and develop the the scaling-up of the generation of renewable sources against the standing discussion. The result of such investigation may be seen to variability of intermittent supply and the consequent problems of have a positive discursive feedback and lead valuably to the co-creation transmission and distribution congestion in respective networks. of increasingly robust transition imaginaries [27,28]. We are convinced For all these reasons, an energy sector transition is a very compli- that a more informed discussion about problems and potential troubles cated ordeal. Among other aspects, it requires a significant ‘rewiring’ of of energy transitions will benefit all social actors and allow a better the functional relations between and within sectors (i.e. a new sector policy framing through consideration of different, yet equally legit- coupling), a re-arrangement of social practices (associated with the imate, proposals of sustainability policies. patterns of consumption in both paid and non-paid work sectors), a To deal with this challenge, we propose a new approach to the use change in existing technologies, a revolution in the economic business of quantitative analysis termed ‘quantitative story-telling’. Quantitative models and a re-thinking of institutional regulation. Put differently, the story-telling aims towards a more responsible use of quantitative ana- electrical grid will have to go for ‘something completely different’. lysis as it informs decision making. In this approach, no solutions to the Necessary changes will be determined in an unpredictable way by the problem (whose problem?) are proposed. No improvements (for effects determined by a series of impredicative relations (chicken-egg whom?) are suggested. Quantitative story-telling aims simply to check causality dilemmas) over drivers of changes only observable across the quality of an elected story-telling and related policy narratives. In different dimensions and levels of analysis. When trying to predict the this paper, quantitative story-telling is applied to test the plausibility of evolution of this type of system – a complex adaptive system – and the claim that ‘in two or three decades, it will be possible to scale-up the especially when dealing with radical re-adjustments, one must expect supply of intermittent sources of electricity (wind- and solar-based) to the presence of large doses of uncertainty hampering prediction and obtain a significant decarbonization of European economies’. control [29,30]. While conventional economic analysis does play an Considering recent attention given to the failures of the Energiewende, important role in determining the viability of changes, it does not 2 A. Renner and M. Giampietro Energy Research & Social Science 59 (2020) 101279 contain a relevant set of methods pertinent to the assessment of the nuclear energy (e.g. in the case of fissile material energy carriers). In biophysical feasibility of changes. In the words of H.T. Odum, given a contrast to electrical energy, however, fossil and nuclear fuels are technology, a “gallon of gasoline will power a car the same distance no stocks of energy and therefore allow the generation of flows of energy matter what its price” [31]. By implication, within the corpus of learning- whenever a consumer desires. The chemical energy in the tank of a car, type storylines, economic narratives must be complemented with other for example, can be used whenever the owner decides to use the car. On narrative varieties. A check on the feasibility (compatibility with bio- the contrary, electrical energy requires the simultaneous operation of a physical constraints), the viability (compatibility with economic and device generating it and a device utilizing it. technical constraints) and the desirability (compatibility with institu- Due to this difference, electrical energy's flow aspect implies the need tions, normative values and aspirations of the actors in the society) for a high-resolution spatial and temporal balance between its supply and requires an integrated use of different disciplinary lenses. demand. Meaningful energy accounting measures must, therefore, in- Assuming all this to be the situation, a responsible use of quanti- dividuate the specific link to be established in space and time between tative analysis entails a change in the purpose of the analysis. Rather power capacity supplying electrical energy and power capacity de- than crunching numbers to identify an ostensibly optimal course of manding electrical energy. The consumption of a kWh of electrical en- action or to predict future states of the system, it is wiser to use ergy is an event that must be defined after adopting local scales of space quantification to check the robustness of the story-telling associated and time. Indeed, the long-term averaged value of a quantity of elec- with a given policy [9,32]. This approach, proposed and tested in the tricity loses the relevant information needed to characterize the social European project Moving Towards Adaptive Governance in Complexity desirability, economic viability and biophysical feasibility of electrical (MAGIC) [33], is called ‘quantitative story-telling’. In addition to energy. GWh per year, a common metric in energy accounting, has this complexity science, the process of quantitative story-telling draws drawback. To make an analogy between GWh per year and the ice cream philosophically on post-normal science for governance [29,34]. In post- metaphor, for a person selling ice-cream cones, information about the normal science for governance, the quality of analytical outcomes de- availability of one tonne of ice cream per year does not guarantee that pends on clarifying the choices that have shaped the content of the this quantity of ice cream will be accessible in the right quantity, at the evidence base and the modes of analysis considered as salient and right moment and in the right place. In contrast, meaningful energy credible. Quantitative story-telling is not, therefore, concerned with accounting for stocks of energy (cookies in the ice cream metaphor), may refinement of the minutiae of existing dynamical models. Instead, it is appropriately be made at a relatively coarse spatial-temporal scale. GJ of used to explore counterfactuals of hegemonic hero stories and question gasoline stocks per year at the national scale, for example. In summary, whether existing science-policy consensuses are ignoring crucial pro- successfully accounting for stocks of energy (e.g. fossil fuels) generally blems by taking too narrow a view of the challenges to be faced. requires significantly less spatial-temporal precision than successfully Quantitative story-telling is used in this paper to check the plausibility accounting for flows of energy (e.g. electrical energy). of the proposed set of strategies anticipating a quick transition to a low- The need for a high-resolution spatial and temporal balance be- carbon economy based on intermittent sources of electrical energy. tween the supply and demand of electrical energy additionally allows In the rest of this section, we illustrate the pre-analytical choices for the definition of a metric of quality of any given watt-hours. In that have shaped our quantitative analysis. We do this in order to make relation to regulatory aspects, three types of power capacity for pro- transparent our framing of the issue and the consequent identification ducing electrical energy may be identified: (i) base-load (predictable, of the relations to be considered when checking the plausibility of the but supply is difficult to regulate); (ii) peak-load (predictable and easy chosen story-telling [35]. to regulate); and (iii) intermittent (not predictable and supply cannot be regulated, only curtailed). The characteristics of these three forms of power capacity determine the quality of the watt-hours produced. By 2.2. “The” peculiar, policy relevant characteristic of electrical energy implication, from an engineering point of view and contrary to what is assumed by business-as-usual economic analyses based on price, dif- 2.2.1. Accounting for electrical energy ferent types of kWh can and should be distinguished due to implications Different forms of energy present different challenges and require in their possible use in the grid. When considering existing electrical different accounting techniques. The form of energy known as electrical grids, predictable and regulatable watt-hours are of the highest use- energy happens to be convenient, versatile, reliable and precise. fulness in matching supply and demand. It is, therefore, reasonable to Technologies which convert electrical energy to other useful forms of expect that the cost of production of peak-load watt-hours is higher energy – mechanical, chemical and thermal, to name a few – are, than that of base-load watt-hours. For the same reason, it is reasonable moreover, highly efficient. All these characteristics are of course highly to expect that the cost of production of base-load watt-hours is higher desirable for society. Electrical energy does, however, have a funda- than that of intermittent watt-hours. From this realization we can de- mental drawback in that it is a flow of energy. Flow resources are not duce that the fact that watt-hours produced by intermittent power ca- directly useful unless they are either put to immediate use or stored. pacity (e.g. wind turbines, solar photovoltaic panels) may be cheaper in One could claim that electrical energy is “better” than thermal energy terms of fixed and operating costs than watt-hours produced by other in the same way one could claim that ice cream is “better” than a forms of power capacity is not by itself a particularly relevant piece of cookie. While ice cream may be more delicious at the point of con- information for the design of a national electrical grid. These points sumption, if not eaten on the spot, ice cream will melt down and be- may be summarized in the crucial, yet in the case of contemporary come useless. The ice cream metaphor illustrates how electrical energy energy accounting for social systems frequently overlooked, realization can be considered, at the point of consumption, more user friendly than that not all watt-hours of energy are the same. Table 1 summarizes key chemical energy (e.g. in the case of fossil fuel energy carriers) and Table 1 Characterization of performance factors for different types of electric power plants. Usage rates based off [36], capacity factors calculated from the datasets used in Section 3 of this article (annual-national averages). Section 2.3 provides additional theoretical background to the content of this table. Type Power capacity Gross usage Capacity factor Grid demand Utilization factor Energy-to-power ratio Baseloaders 1 MW 6000+ h/yr 0.7+ Approx. 100% 0.7+ 6+ GWh/MW Peakable 1 MW 1000–4000 h/yr 0.1–0.5 Approx. 100% 0.1–0.5 1–4 GWh/MW Intermittents 1 MW 400–3000 h/yr 0.05–0.3 0–100% 0–0.3 0–3 GWh/MW 3 A. Renner and M. Giampietro Energy Research & Social Science 59 (2020) 101279 classificatory differences between the three types of power capacity e.g. measured in megawatts), GU stands for gross usage (the total time of mentioned. The Capacity factor scales Gross usage based off an 8760- use over given a period e.g. measured in hours/year), and GEel stands hour year. Grid demand, in particular for intermittents, defines cur- for gross electrical energy (gross generated e.g. measured in gigawatt- tailment. The Utilization factor is directly related to both the Capacity hours/year). In Eq. (2), GD stands for grid demand (the demand, placed factor and Grid demand. by the grid, on physically identifiable power capacity represented as a percentage of generated electrical energy), TEel stands for transmitted 2.2.2. Storage electrical energy and WEel stands for wasted electrical energy. GEel is It follows from the flow nature of electrical energy that, within the equivalent to the sum of TEel and WEel. Lastly, in relation to the pre- existing pattern of production and consumption of electrical energy vious Table 1, Eq. (1) is analogous to an extensive representation of based on a centralized system of production and distribution, supplied utilization factor in the case of 100% grid demand. Eq. (2) is analogous to electrical energy that is not immediately put to use must be either an extensive representation of utilization factor in the case grid demand is stored or ‘wasted’. Utility-scale storage is problematic. By using capa- less than 100%. citors, electrical energy can in fact be directly stored without conver- The predicament of an electrical grid with high intermittents pe- sion. Using capacitors (or better, supercapacitors) as a means of utility- netration is that intermittents power capacity is constrained by both GU scale energy storage in electrical grids, however, is not feasible neither and GD when not given grid priority. In this situation, curtailment ty- currently not in the foreseeable future. Supercapacitors self-discharge pically occurs when curtailment is economical. As a result, GU is lower completely in just 3-4 days, a self-discharge rate two orders of magni- than it would be if determined only by natural constraints and WEel tude higher than that of, for example, lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries. The increases. In other words, observed utilization factors decrease in re- energy density of supercapacitors is furthermore relatively low, at least lation to corresponding capacity factors. On the other hand, when in- an order of magnitude less than that of Li-ion batteries [37,38]. To termittents power capacity is given grid priority, only GU constrains the overcome these practical incompatibilities, electrical energy must in- equation. In that circumstance, however, intermittents power capacity stead be converted to another form of energy in order to be effectively will have either: (i) forced the curtailment of base-load power capacity stored. To name a few of the more common forms, energy might be (leading to an increase in losses at the system level similar to the pre- stored at the utility-scale in the form of mechanical energy (e.g. fly- vious case); (ii) created an additional requirement for peak-load power wheels), gravitational energy (e.g. pumped hydro), thermal energy or capacity capable of compensating low-quality supply of electrical en- chemical energy (batteries, e.g. flow, lead-acid, Li-ion, sodium or zinc ergy from intermittents with high-quality supply of electrical energy; or batteries). (iii) created a situation of unfulfilled demand (major power outages). In By far the most prevalent utility-scale energy storage technology to Section 3 a story-telling following a major scaling-up of intermittents date is pumped hydro, covering roughly 96% of storage capacity power capacity will be explored, the GD estimated, and the option globally [39]. In the developed world, however, relatively limited ex- space around WEel and GU discussed. pansion potential exists in terms of new pumped hydro sites. Most of In summary, mitigating the unwelcome effects which result from the the low-hanging fruit locations have already been developed. Other injection of large quantities of a ‘low-quality’ supply of electrical energy energy storage technologies are also rapidly becoming cost competitive. in the electrical grid (the effect of intermittents integration) is an ex- In particular, the battery family of storage technology has been gaining ceptionally delicate task. Subjective decisions must be made by elec- momentum in high-level policy [39]. Many outlook analyses also focus trical grid operators. In general, increasing the temporal ability for a on batteries. Lazard's annual Levelized Cost of Storage Analysis, for ex- base-load system subcomponent to dispatch (increasing its ability to ample, goes so far as to omit entirely mechanical, gravitational and ramp power output) causes that subcomponent to suffer in terms of thermal energy storage technologies. This omission is a decision based thermodynamic efficiency, capital investment and operational invest- on their identification of “limited current or future commercial deployment ment. The solution of peak-load power capacity, the classic example of expectations [for those technologies]” [40]. Bloomberg's New Energy which is open-cycle gas turbines, is both relatively expensive in fi- Outlook similarly maintains a substantial focus on batteries for storage, nancial terms and relatively inefficient in thermodynamic terms. although not entirely exclusively like Lazard [41]. 2.4. The importance of adopting a relational framework 2.3. The role of alternative sources in the existing electrical grid Up until this point, Section 2 has described how the large-scale After establishing a baseline understanding of electrical energy, accommodation of alternatives in a national-scale, centralized electrical including its beneficial and problematic aspects as well as its storage grid implies the need for any or all of: (i) a considerable non-inter- potential, it is meaningful to provide a baseline understanding of al- mittent operating reserve; (ii) a considerable energy storage ability; or ternatives in the electrical grid. The following symbolic equations (Eqs. (iii) a considerable change in the social practices creating the demand (1) and (2)) form a trivial comparison between a conventional fossil for electrical energy. Whereas options (i) and (ii) are structural changes, fuel-based electrical grid (Eq. (1)) and an electrical grid with a rela- option (iii) includes an important component of functional change. In tively large quantity of its electrical energy generated from inter- order to anticipate, in a holistic manner, the large-scale accommodation mittents power capacity (Eq. (2)). In practice, intermittents power ca- of alternatives in a national-scale electrical grid, a methodology capable pacity is power capacity converting solar and wind primary energy of coordinating both structural and functional analyses is, therefore, a sources into electrical energy. Key technologies include solar photo- prerequisite. By extension, reductionist approaches (which, by defini- voltaic panels and wind turbines. It's also worth noting that the in- tion, ignore function) miss part of the picture. troduction of intermittents power capacity in the electrical grid is by By shifting the analytical focus from epiphenomena (a non-causal and large fueling the contemporary renewables energy transition. Fol- byproduct – a simple recombination of the same structural elements) to lowing Table 1, Eqs. (1) and (2) represent a symbolic, macro-char- phenomena, the adoption of a relational analytical framework proves a acterization critical to the issue of scaling-up alternatives in the elec- radical departure from reductionist science. Relational analysis is cen- trical grid. tral to the methodology of this contribution's analysis [42]. In the re- lational mindset, and indeed in quantitative story-telling, structural PC × GU = GEel (1) elements are considered instances (specific realizations) of a system's functional relations. According to Rosen, conventional dynamical PC × GU × GD = TEel + WEel (2) modeling does not adhere to these methods. Instead, dynamical mod- In Eqs. (1) and (2), PC stands for power capacity (generally nameplate eling makes a dangerous claim that “a sufficiently elaborate 4 A. Renner and M. Giampietro Energy Research & Social Science 59 (2020) 101279 characterization of [a system's] structural detail will automatically lead to a has encouraged many European states (including both Germany and functional understanding of [that system's] behaviors” [43]. Spain) to implement substantial capacity mechanisms in recent years To illustrate the point, no level of material description of structures [54,55]. Such mechanisms stand chiefly in contrast to alternative vi- used to generate peak-load electrical energy (e.g. open-cycle gas tur- sions of a highly cooperative European super-grid. bines vs. the use of hydropower) and structures used to consume peak- In summary, three main objectives of the entailed analysis are: (i) to load electrical energy (e.g. certain consumer appliances) is sufficient to explore scale issues of intermittent renewable primary energy sources create a robust understanding of the inherently functional, social de- in the electrical grid; (ii) to illustrate how a relational analysis approach mand for peak-load electrical energy in the first place [44]. Similarly, may be used to inform electrical grid futures; and (iii) to provide an no understanding of the functional, social demand for peak-load elec- example of how electrical grid option spaces may be established. To trical energy suffices to create a robust understanding of the in- achieve these objectives, the extent of the anticipated worst annual stantiating structures. Both descriptions are inextricably needed and failure event is detailed at various consumer guarantee and confidence together they form an impredicative relation. In summary, social en- levels. Related to the worst annual failure event, the maximal in- ergy systems are characterized by the existence of inherently irre- stantaneous power gap and integrated energy gap – both critical aspects ducible, impredicative definitions. They are, by extension, non-simul- of contingency planning – are calculated. These numerical results are able (no largest model) and not purely synthetic. Effectively, they are then discussed from a structural-functional perspective. complex adaptive systems [45]. The recognition of this point formats the results generated in Section 3 and frames the discussion made in 3.2. Datasets Section 4. Spain and Germany were selected as exploratory cases due to their 3. Our quantitative analysis status as countries undergoing rapid renewable energy transitions. In the global context, and in both absolute and relative terms, both 3.1. Goal of the analysis countries are leaders in the use of intermittent primary renewable en- ergy sources (wind and solar). Table 2 introduces the datasets used in Our exercise in quantitative story-telling investigates additional this case study to detail electrical energy production. In general, the factors which could be used to inform policies such as the Energiewende. data is characterized by a high degree of completeness in the sense very We try to put ourselves in the shoes of a grid planner with the goal of few data points were missing or contestably outliers. A more detailed integrating intermittent sources of electricity into the existing German explanation of data fidelity may be found in Appendix A. While the data (and Spanish) electrical grid. We then use quantitative analysis to ask actually reflects electrical grid demand, it proxies total feasible re- whether grid problems, such as those experienced in the Energiewende, newable electrical energy generation remarkably well. To date, for could have been anticipated. In order to investigate these concerns, we Germany and Spain, for the current analytical purposes and in large anticipate a scaling-up of annual wind and solar generation in Germany part because of legal priority granted to it, a negligible amount of and Spain to what would be 100% of the current annual electrical grid electrical energy from renewable energy sources was curtailed (within demand for each country. While the case study is primarily illustrative the range of 0–2%) [56,57]. Following Table 2, Fig. 1 describes the in purpose, it does reflect current policies. In Spain, the most recent changes in the power capacity used to generate electrical energy by legal proposals make plans for 100% of the nation's electrical energy to detailing the power capacity profile at the start and end points of the be sourced from renewable primary energy sources by 2050 [46]. In datasets detailed in Table 2. Germany, the Renewable Energy Act states that renewable primary Perhaps the most striking aspect of Fig. 1 is the significant increase energy sources should fulfill “at least 80% of gross electricity consump- in total power capacity following a relative increase in electrical energy tion” by 2050 [47]. In order to fulfill their part of the Paris Agreement, sourced from intermittent primary energy sources. Specifically, Spain however, Germany will likely need to have 100% renewables in the observed a 17% increase in total system power capacity over 12 years electrical grid by just 2040 [48]. and Germany observed a 27% increase in 8 years, 14.5 GW and Admittedly, intermittent solar and wind primary energy sources do 47.5 GW respectively. This increase was a result of a respective 11% not fully encompass ‘renewable energy’. Indeed, hydro and biomass and 17% increase in intermittently sourced electrical energy genera- currently account for 10–12% of the net electrical energy generation in tion. While prodigious amounts of wind and solar power capacity were Germany and Spain [49]. As previously noted, however, both hydro added in both countries, conventional fossil-fuel and nuclear power and biomass have markedly limited expansion potential [48,50]. While capacity only marginally decreased regardless of a negligible change in neglecting hydro and biomass expansion potential introduces error to demand. This remarkable long-term trend is depicted in a more trans- the results, the margin of error introduced by their omission is in- parent manner in Fig. 2. substantial in comparison with other analysis uncertainties. For ex- ample, electric vehicle uptake is widely predicted to force a major in- 3.3. Results crease in electrical grid demand over both the medium- and long-terms (2030 and 2050, respectively). However, uncertainties surrounding the Following the discussion in Section 3.1, within existing electrical exact degree of electric vehicle uptake prohibit the precise character- grids decision makers operate in a high-dimensional option space. The ization of changes in overall grid demand [51]. As a result, anticipa- apparent historical decision to retain a majority of conventional power tions of grid demand in the medium- and long-term in e.g. the United Kingdom have fluctuated no less than 100% in just the past two years Table 2 precisely due to changing estimates of electric vehicle uptake [52,53]. Summary of datasets used in the case study. Intermittents penetration reflects The future of our electrical grids is a highly uncertain ordeal. the percentage of electrical energy generated by wind and solar primary energy An additional, final remark is that the enclosed analysis embarks sources in the respective country (annual average). Spain refers to Peninsular from a perspective of national security. From the perspective of national Spain only. Sources as follows. Spain: [58]. Germany: collated from the four German transmission system operators [59–62]. security, in the occasion of a failure event either an increasing amount of contingency power capacity (e.g. backup power plants or storage) Region Start date Length Resolution Intermittents penetration must be provided within national boundaries or the national social End Start demand profile must accommodate. As before, these assumptions re- Spain 1/1/2007 144 mo 10 min 20.1% 9.4% present just one possible, pessimistic future. Still, they are not entirely Germany 1/1/2011 96 mo 60 min 30.0% 13.3% far-fetched. Indeed, the issue of security of supply in the electrical grid 5 A. Renner and M. Giampietro Energy Research & Social Science 59 (2020) 101279 Fig. 1. Structural reading of the electrical grid power capacity composition. Refer to Table 2 for the points in time associated with the differing intermittents penetration levels (i.e. the Start and End points). Sources as follow. Spain: [58,63,64]. Germany: [59–62,65]. capacity regardless of a significant increase in renewables power ca- pacity (depicted in Figs. 1 and 2) represented just one of the many possible options decision makers had available to them. The original option space contained many alternative transition pathways. In the exploration of future grid possibilities, it is of primary importance to describe the option space in a manner capable of informing a plurality of decision makers each with different but equally relevant considera- tions and concerns. Table 3 provides a set of statistical information reflecting challenges which would need to be overcome by decision makers. Specifically, it describes energy and power dimensions of the predicted worst annual failure event. This event represents the crux of what would need to be overcome in an electrical grid with high inter- mittents penetration. In reality, each point of data in Table 3 is the basis of a unique scenario characterized by different functional assumptions about social demand. Each of these functional assumptions entails dif- ferent structural implications. To restate the assumptive basis, the en- semble of anticipations described imagines future electrical grids where intermittent renewable primary energy sources are used to generate electrical energy at a scale equal to 100% of the present-year electrical grid demand. In a closed, national and centralized electrical grid where electrical energy is sourced predominantly from intermittent primary energy sources, three categories of options are available to decision makers planning to accommodate the expected worst annual failure event (detailed in Table 3). Firstly, reserve conventional power capacity may Fig. 2. Electrical energy generation and growth in power capacities over time be retained. Secondly, social demands for electrical energy may, either during the Spanish and German renewable energy transitions. Additional forcibly or willingly, undergo major change. Thirdly, a major addition characteristic data available in Fig. 1. The generation data overlay is presented at a monthly resolution for Spain and yearly until 2008 for Germany, monthly of storage capacity may be made. Figs. 1 and 2 in Section 3.2 indicated thereafter. Sources as follow. Spain: [63,66]. Germany: [49,64,67]. that the first option – retention of reserve conventional power capacity – was apparently the one historically taken both in Germany and Spain. From Table 3 we could say that a majority of conventional power 6 A. Renner and M. Giampietro Energy Research & Social Science 59 (2020) 101279 Table 3 Statistical description of annual ‘worst events’ in two imagined electrical grids where 100% of the electrical energy is generated from intermittent sources (an annual average of combined wind and solar). The insight presented is helpful for informing subjective decisions within the option space. The power gap is characterized as both an absolute level (in GW) and a relative level (percentage of the total electrical energy demanded but unfulfilled). The energy gap described refers to a singular, continuous period where less than the guaranteed level of total electrical energy was fulfilled by intermittent energy sources. See Appendix A for extended discussion on the underlying statistical methods. capacity would need to be retained if the first option is to be taken in Table 4 are on the order of the entirety of greenhouse gas emissions for isolation (i.e. we expect failure events at a power magnitude equal to their respective countries (in 2016, 0.9 Gt and 0.3 Gt CO2-eq. for all that of the entire electrical grid). It's also worth noting, however, that sectors including indirect emissions1 for Germany and Spain, respec- the first option largely defeats the decoupling purpose of a renewables tively) [73]. While the financial costs are substantial, they are rather transition. The second option – changes in social demand profiles – is minor in relation to the cost of replacing existing conventional power inevitable. That said, the nature of the changes and the degree policy capacity with renewable alternatives assuming current price points guidance will play is unclear. Following the previous discussion of [74]. It should lastly be noted that Table 4 is a naïve interpretation of socio-technological imaginaries and technological promise, the second Table 3. The Table 4 estimates do not take into account additional option typically but unfortunately takes a backstage position in con- storage capacity required to avoid damaging depths of discharge, ad- temporary energy transition efforts [68,69]. This is due to the fact that ditional additive factors such as imperfect round-trip efficiency, self- contemporary energy transition efforts are primarily concerned with discharge rates, climate control of the storage facilities and compen- quantified change of the structural composition of the electrical grid sation for transmission losses and subtractive factors such as time-of-use [70]. In contrast to the first and second options, the third option – tariffs (−15 to 25%) and other grid flexibility measures [75]. Though storage – has gained significant traction in recent years [39]. many of these factors are functional decisions of confidence and guar- Following the generation gaps presented in Table 3, estimations of antee, decisions that electrical grid operators make as they align the monetary costs and greenhouse gas externalities associated with the themselves in the option space described by Tables 3 and 4, these use of Li-ion batteries as utility-scale electrical grid storage are provided factors serve to compound the quantitative estimates provided in this in Table 4. (The decision to explore the utility-scale use of Li-ion bat- section and are beyond the scope of this work. teries is justified in Section 2.1 and in Section 4.) Working as a peak electricity provider, the unsubsidized and levelized cost of Li-ion bat- 4. The plausibility of a quick scaling-up of intermittents teries is currently estimated to be between $285 and $581/MWh [71]. The greenhouse gas emissions resulting from manufacturing of just the In recent years in Germany and Spain there have been fleeting lithium batteries (i.e. none of the other required infrastructure) is es- moments where nearly all electrical energy consumed was derived from timated to be between 33 and 172 tons CO2-eq/MWh [72]. An example renewable primary energy sources. Clearly the combination of weather of interpreting Table 4 follows. If a Germany highly concerned with patterns and energy demand was remarkably favorable at these mo- national security aimed to guarantee 95% of their annual average 100% ments. Indeed, over the course of the past year, the average generation intermittents electrical energy generation at a 99% confidence level, from intermittents for Germany and Spain was between 20% and 30% they should expect to prepare contingency storage capable of providing for both countries. This figure is a far cry less than totality. Considering 22 TWh with an 84 GW peak output. Table 4 contextualizes the these facts, it is important to then realize that the continued policy structural costs of that storage related to the use of utility-scale Li-ion mandate to increase renewables power capacity results from largely batteries to be between $6.4 bn and $13 bn. In terms of greenhouse gas unquestioned assumptions of social practice and inflexible functional emissions, the structural costs of storage are expected to be between 0.74 Gt and 3.9 Gt CO2-eq. For context, the greenhouse gas emissions embodied in just the 1 Indirect emissions do not, in this case, include land-use, land-use change and manufacturing of the Li-ion batteries used as peakers and described in forestry (LULUCFs). 7 A. Renner and M. Giampietro Energy Research & Social Science 59 (2020) 101279 Table 4 Interpreted impacts for Table 3, where electrical energy discrepancies (unfulfilled guarantees) are fulfilled by Li-ion batteries. Monetary figures refer to the unsubsidized levelized cost of storage from Lazard [71], which includes capital, operation and maintenance, charging, taxes and extended warranty costs. Monetary figures in USD. Greenhouse gas figures refer only to the manufacturing of the battery, using range estimates from a review of the literature [72]. demand. From a historical perspective, modern society demands a flow anticipated 100% intermittent electricity system already represents of electrical energy at a remarkably high confidence level. An ideolo- some 7% (Spain) and 13.5% (Germany) of the world's proven lithium gical assumption has been made that, rather than change our social reserves and 4x (Spain) and 15x (Germany) the current annual pro- practices of consumption, the supply of electrical energy derived from duction volume of lithium, or 12x (Spain) and 43x (Germany) the renewable primary energy sources should increase. current annual production volume of lithium used in the production of Relatively few analyses attempt to estimate potential storage re- batteries [72,81–83]. Considering that the effective lifespan of a Li-ion quirements in a fully renewable electrical grid. This is a major oversight battery is on the order of 5–10 years [76,84], one can conclude that in the discourse since solving that problem is given the highest priority utility scale Li-ion battery electricity storage is not currently a large- by many supranational interest groups [i.a. 39,41,76]. Those analyses scale environmentally feasible or economically viable option for de- that do attempt to estimate general storage requirements are, however, veloped nations. While the use of utility scale Li-ion battery electricity compatible with the average results presented in Table 3. For example, storage may possibly be desirable domestically, given the anticipated assuming that grid expansions are limited to the national scale and that levels of extraction it is highly doubtful to be desirable from a global no backup generation is provided, [77] estimate that the European perspective. Indeed, contemporary levels of lithium extraction alone are Union would require between 7 and 30 days of storage to accommodate already highly contentious [85]. From the anticipated levels of lithium shares of 90% or more of intermittent renewable energy. The results are extraction, major desirability concerns over social and environmental also comparable with the specific analysis for Germany by Kuhn [78], justice would be anticipated [86]. These are all concerning points given which predicts a requirement of storage power output on the order of the reliance on Li-ion by major supranational energy outlooks. 53 GW by 2050. Bloomberg New Energy Finance, for example, estimates that an eye- Following the results in Table 4 and using the United Nation's [79] popping 1291 GW of new battery capacity (primarily but not ex- population estimates, while planning for the expected annual worst clusively Li-ion) will be added by 2050. 30% of that capacity is assumed event in the most extreme scenario (99% confidence interval, 95% to be driven by Europe where a 77% portion is expected to go to utility- guaranteed) the anticipated levelized costs of Li-ion battery storage scale batteries [41]. backup supply are on the order of 37–73 USD per capita for Spain and Naturally, as intermittent electricity generation penetrates the 77–157 USD per capita for Germany. These costs are relatively minor in electrical grid, system administrators have structural options alter- relation to other expenses in the renewable energy transition. On the native to Li-ion. One could import energy via Pan-European inter- other hand, annual greenhouse gas emissions from lithium battery connectors i.e. increase the range of effective spatial smoothing. manufacturing are on the order of 4–21 tons CO2-eq per capita for Spain Alternatively, one could build or maintain dispatchable backup con- and 9–47 tons CO2-eq per capita for Germany. These figures are majorly ventional power plants (the current solution). One could also majorly concerning. Putting these emissions into context, the figures are be- overbuild intermittent renewables power capacity. Even spatial tween 0.5x and 3x of the 2015 per capita greenhouse gas emissions smoothing within a country's borders, however, will prove difficult. (Kyoto basket) for both Spain and Germany [80]. The biophysical im- Kies et al. [57] estimate that, in Germany, even with considerably im- plications of the considered transition, even when considering coarse proved spatial smoothing and relatively available high voltage trans- assessments, include substantial reason for concern. mission lines, curtailment in a 100% renewables scenario may be forced More concerning than the emissions figures, however, is the mag- into the realm of 60–80%. In their simulations Kies et al. [57] estimate nitude of lithium that would be required. When considering the con- that utilization factors for wind farms in Northern Germany (where a servative functional options in Table 3 (99% confidence interval, 95% majority of the wind power capacity is currently located in Germany) guaranteed), the use of Li-ion storage that would be required in the would be on the order of 2%. This future is drastically different from the 8 A. Renner and M. Giampietro Energy Research & Social Science 59 (2020) 101279 present reality – current curtailment is negligible. It presents an addi- and desirable by the society (using non-economic narratives and story- tional complication with respect to the major scaling-up of alternatives tellings) are verified in relation to their reasonable chances of economic in the electrical grid. success, in order to be able to identify effective policies. Lastly, there will always exist special circumstances which allow In this paper we attempted to show the importance of considering some entities to pursue transition pathways alternative to the ones more than one lens at a time in order to obtain a better framing of described for Germany and Spain. Denmark, for example, has received sustainability issues. We used the discussion on alternative sources of widespread critical acclaim in recent years and in response to its re- electrical energy as a case study and learning-type story. For reasons of newable energy transition successes. However, while Denmark itself length, we focused primarily on one lens (biophysical feasibility). This has no significant hydropower potential, it sits on the doorstep of a choice does not imply that the other lenses are less important. The cooperative Norway and a cooperative Sweden which together have message of quantitative story-telling is that we need to learn how to nearly 70% of Europe's hydropower (maximum storage capacity) [87]. integrate the great diversity of available knowledge claims relevant to Every year there are multiple weeks where Denmark imports on the understanding of a wicked problem. To achieve this result we average 60-80% of the electrical energy it consumes [88]. The Denmark should avoid as much as possible the hegemonization of narratives and model is not easily reproducible. There will always be special cases and hero-type story-tellings [19,26]. Instead, a diversity of framings of a outliers. Successes aside – and there have been many – there remain given issue is essential in order to reduce the unavoidable generation of major functional hurdles between our present society and a future one ‘hypocognition’ [96] associated with any representation of a problem or powered on renewable electrical energy. solution. As a consequence, more informed and equitable choices may Despite major functional hurdles, physical-technical and economic be made. models continue to dominate the energy analysis discourse and related decision-making processes. Notwithstanding, there exists widespread 5. Conclusions acknowledgement that such models are poor predictors of the future [89–92]. Assessments of systemic factors affecting the adoption of The analysis provided in this manuscript points at an excessive re- transformative energy technologies find many reasons for their poor liance on economic narratives as one of the possible causes leading to predictive power. One such reason is that technology adopters are not the underestimation of the technical and biophysical hurdles in the homo economicus and are motivated by much more than financial con- implementation of renewable energy transition policies. This manu- siderations [89,93]. Concerning these points, quantitative story-telling script proposes that discussions about a future, completely distinct suggests moving away from a discussion based on ‘matters of fact’ and energy system should be complemented by other types of narratives. towards a discussion about ‘matters of concern’. We suggest moving away from a ‘Yes, we can!’ mode of discussion in This shift in analytical focus from fact to concern is non-trivial, which the solution is to set a business models with the goal of achieving however. In contrast to the assessment of a matter of fact, an analysis of a certain set of normalized expectations. We also suggest moving away a matter of concern is necessarily based on multiple, non-equivalent from a mode of discussion which assumes that ‘no matter the problem’ and non-reducible quality checks. One major issue with socio-techno- human ingenuity and the invisible hands of the market will be capable logical imaginaries is that they are often shaped more by narratives and of solving it. Instead, it may be advantageous to start exploring a mode endorsed storylines than biophysical reality [94,95]. In this sense, an of discussion based on ‘Houston, we've had a problem.’ analysis of a matter of concern relevant for decision makers should In this sense, the quantitative story-telling method proposal does include a quality check on its feasibility. In the example of quantitative not claim to provide uncontested ‘facts’ to the process of deliberation story-telling proposed in this paper, we illustrated that analysts should over sustainability policies. As a matter of fact, during the activities of be able to assess how much electrical energy can be produced by the the MAGIC project, we have been consistently confronted by strong different functional categories of production (base-load, peak-load, in- believers of a quick decarbonization through a massive and rapid de- termittents) when matching demand across space and time. This ana- ployment of intermittent electricity sources – supporters of the ‘eco- lysis of biophysical congruence is independent from the price of a kWh. nomics of techno-scientific promises’ [97]. This disagreement is per- We also made a call for analysts to discuss how to define a relation fectly legitimate. Any analysis of the possible evolution of a complex between power capacity and gross supply (i.e. utilization factor, power adaptive system can always be contested by challenging specific tech- load, or, the characterization based on production factors per typology). nical assumptions. However, critiques of this nature should not be used Depending on the level of centralization of the proposed electrical grid, to avoid the discussion of the proposed concerns. In fact, a discussion analysts should explore how much energy must be stored in order to about the plausibility of policies should not be focused on ‘what may integrate a given quantity of intermittents in the grid in order to bal- happen’ but rather on reaching an agreement on ‘what cannot happen’. ancing demand and supply. They should address storage loss profiles Numerous learning-type stories should be included to balance hero-type and the spatial/temporal distribution of dispatched, stored energy. stories [26]. In our stakeholder experience in the MAGIC project, those They should also consider degradation rates of storage infrastructure convinced that technological innovation represents a panacea in the and embodied inputs in the manufacturing and installation of that modern sustainable energy crisis tend to avoid discussing concerns storage infrastructure. about the plausibility of policies currently proposed. The usefulness of In addition to a feasibility check, the analysis of a matter of concern the quantitative story-telling methodology does not depend on whether should be based on quality checks on desirability and viability. the analysis presented should be considered as a fact. Rather, its use- Exploring that point, a desirability check requires establishing a bridge fulness depends on whether the concerns raised provide a sobering between a technical analysis and the implications of proposed changes reminder about the risks of bad planning. Quantitative story-telling is on the patterns of consumption in the society. This type of analysis has about learning how to handle ‘uncomfortable knowledge’ that is dis- not been presented in this paper, though it is developed in the activities turbing our visions and aspirations for the future. As stated by Rayner, of the MAGIC project. How will the proposed changes affect the ex- the systemic refusal to handle uncomfortable knowledge is the main pression of the current mix of social practices? How will they affect the mechanism of the social construction of ignorance in science and en- quality of life in terms of material standard of living and social activ- vironmental policy discourses [15]. ities? The establishment of this bridge is essential. Technical informa- In view of the analysis presented here, the descriptive and pre- tion will remain useless if the technical analysis of feasibility is not scriptive discourse surrounding the contemporary European renewable coupled to an analysis of its policy relevance, i.e. the implications of energy transition seems to be characterized by a critical lack of holistic choices in terms of desirability for society. Lastly, an economic viability (structural and functional) analyses. Indeed the term ‘energy transition’ check implies that those solutions that have been identified as feasible is nearly always used in reference to a change in the structural 9 A. Renner and M. Giampietro Energy Research & Social Science 59 (2020) 101279 composition of primary energy supply [2]. Unfortunately, over the past solutions. century, our economies have become so intertwined with oil and gas The experience created by a quick deployment of intermittents elec- that substituting fossil fuels will take an Olympic effort. This does not trical energy supply in Germany and Spain suggests that a primarily entail that a transition away from fossil energy cannot be done. We, as a structural analysis does not adequately speak towards the feasibility, via- society, will have to do it either willing or not. However, it is essential bility or desirability of decisions. When considering the implications of a to acknowledge that when dealing with a complex pattern of produc- massive and rapid build-up of an electrical energy generation system built tion and consumption (i.e. the metabolic pattern of social-ecological around wind and solar primary energy sources there are several concerns systems) it is unthinkable to imagine a transition based on the main- be addressed. For the building of a dependable backup generation or tenance of the same pattern of consumption (required for the stabili- storage, society would need a huge supply of material for the batteries, zation of existing institutions and social practices) coupled to the in- panels, infrastructures and transmission lines. When considering the costs troduction of a new pattern of production [98]. That is, in order to be of this transition, it is not even sure that this task is feasible. It is also not capable of using alternative sources of electrical energy we must change clear that the task would represent a low-carbon solution, especially if it the existing institutions and social practices. Society as a whole must must be implemented in just two or three decades. Of course, these move to a different integrated pattern of production and consumption. statements do not mean that we do not have to fight for alternatives. They This is not an easy task and above all this is not a task that can be do mean, however, that in our search for a more sustainable energy system achieved by technological change alone. Any change in the existing we must be careful to not filter out uncomfortable knowledge claims about pattern of production and consumption of energy will require adjust- the existence of potential problems. This point is important because of the ments in both the existing power structure and existing social relations. hegemonic role played by economic narratives in the definition of policies. In relation to this point, the natural inertia of social systems may ex- Indeed, the uncontested endorsement of economic story-telling represents plain why, globally, fossil fuel subsidies still outpace renewables sub- a formidable filter against uncomfortable knowledge about the sustain- sidies 4:1 [99]. The massive replacement of fossil fuel as an energy ability predicament [100]. carrier in modern economy is a task so complex that it will require an exercise of extreme humility by those attempting to analyze it. This Declaration of Competing Interest transition cannot be predicted and controlled by simple technocratic planning nor left to the invisible hands of the market in accordance None. with neo-liberal ideologies. In a situation where the characterization of the future is highly uncertain and highly contested, it is not advisable to operate under command and control or put blind faith in the market Acknowledgements forces. Otherwise, we risk propelling ourselves headlong and blindfold into a situation of structural-functional mismatch. A. Renner acknowledges financial support from the Spanish The general consideration of the factors discussed in this paper Ministry of Education, Culture and Sport, through the “formación de suggests that the scale and scope of the modern world's energy power profesorado universitario” scholarship program (FPU15/03376). Both systems has become so huge that there is no primarily technological or authors acknowledge financial support by the European Union's engineering fix to the problem of a renewable energy transition on a Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant timescale relevant to the forces that mandate that transition. Society Agreement No. 689669 (MAGIC) and the Spanish Ministry of Science, must re-define itself in order to be able to produce and consume energy Innovation and Universities, through the “María de Maeztu” program within a different metabolic pattern. This discussion must be based on for Units of Excellence (MDM-2015-0552). A previous version of this the simultaneous consideration of several non-equivalent narratives. work was presented at the SEES 2018 conference. The authors are Tables 3 and 4 presented just one of many ways of introducing a re- grateful for the comments of one anonymous reviewer in relation to lational analysis approach with functional and structural considerations that same conference and three anonymous journal reviewers. This made together. This approach may provide a more holistic vision by work only reflects the view of the authors; the funding agencies are not informing the discussion over potential consequences of proposed responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains. Appendix A A.1. Quantitative analysis In this appendix the methods for the creation of all non-trivial figures and tables are elaborated. A.1.1. Fig. 1 Data directly from sources listed except for Germany where final power capacities for 2018 are forecasted using ENTSOE-E growth ratios applied to the 2015 Eurostat values. Furthermore, the following aggregations were made: Spain. ‘Oil/Gas’ represents ‘fuel’, ‘gas’ and ‘combined cycle’ categories. ‘Hydro’ includes ‘Hydro: Mixed Conventional’, ‘Hydro’, and ‘Other Hydro’. ‘Solar’ includes ‘Solar: Photovoltaic’ and ‘Solar: Thermal’. Germany. ‘Coal’ includes ‘Hard Coal (Anthracite)’ and ‘Brown Coal (Lignite)’. ‘Wind’ includes ‘Wind: Onshore’ and ‘Wind: Offshore’. A.1.2. Fig. 2 ‘Intermittent Renewables’ includes all forms of wind and solar power capacity. ‘Other Renewables’ includes all other renewables save inter- mittents (hydro, biofuel, waste, geothermal etc.). ‘Conventional’ includes all non-renewable energy sources (oil, gas, coal, nuclear etc.). Generation data is net production measured at the power plant (i.e. before e.g. distribution losses). For Germany, generation data is at a yearly resolution until 2008, thereafter it is at a monthly resolution, due to data availability constraints. For Spain, generation data is at a monthly resolution for the complete timeframe. 10 A. Renner and M. Giampietro Energy Research & Social Science 59 (2020) 101279 A.1.3. Tables 3 and 4 Data curation. For several reasons, portions of the Spain and Germany electricity production datasets were interpolated. Overall, interpolated values represent only a minor portion not expected to significantly impact the results. In summary, 5.3% of the timestamps in the Spain dataset and 0.2% of the values in the Germany dataset contain interpolated values. The first pane of Fig. 3 and the first pane of Fig. 4 describe the frequency of the interpolated values in time. A piecewise cubic hermite interpolating polynomial (PCHIP) was selected for interpolation due to its preservation of monotonicity – it is not prone to exaggerating oscillations as e.g. a standard cubic spline interpolation may. The following list provides statistics for Fig. 3. Summary of Spain dataset describing: (i) temporal location of interpolated values representing 5.3% of the total; (ii) full break-down of electricity con- sumption 2007-2018 inclusive; (iii) relative generation mix between the three functional categories described in Section 2.3. Data for the second two panes is reported at a monthly resolution where the underlying data is at a 10-min resolution. Fig. 4. Summary of Germany dataset describing: (i) temporal location of interpolated values representing 0.2% of the total; (ii) full break-down of electricity consumption 2011–2018 inclusive; (iii) relative generation mix between the three functional categories described in Section 2.3. Data for the second two panes is reported at a monthly resolution where the underlying data is hourly. 11 A. Renner and M. Giampietro Energy Research & Social Science 59 (2020) 101279 the relative breakdown of missing or discarded values: 1 The following comment amending instances where not all accounting categories are reported (incomplete data). Spain: 3.6% (22,713; minor concentration bias between 3 h and 4 h); Germany: 0.2% (155). 2 Amending the unlikely autocorrelation between at least one of the individuated generation time series (set of windows ranging from 1 to 6 timestamps; allowance of 10% maximum delta between windows excepting in comparisons between windows where at least one of the windows averages less than 10 MW). For example, for Spain on 11 November 2007 between 12h20 and 12h40 hydroelectric generation trembles nearly 1500% and all other sources of generation are zeroed – this is unrealistic, the data is incorrect. Spain: 1.3% (8478); Germany: 0.0% (0). 3 High standard error between reported total demand and calculated total demand (sum of individuated generation sources). Errors more than 1 ± 0.25 discarded. The vast majority lie within 1 ± 0.01. Spain: 0.3% (2151); Germany: 0.0% (0). Lastly, in the circumstance multiple, distinct values were reported for the same time period, the first reported value was kept. This issue only presented itself with the Spain dataset. Statistical procedure. The following list details the general statistical procedure used to calculate the confidence levels and guarantees in Tables 3 and 4. 1 Calculate the percentage of the total generation sourced from intermittents (wind or solar) for each observation. 2 Find the yearly mean percentage generated for each point in time by taking the centered rolling mean with a one-year window for each year. 3 For each observation, calculate the guaranteed percentage for each of the guarantee levels (0.5, 0.75, 0.9 and 0.95) by multiplying the mean generation by each of the guarantee levels. 4 Calculate the discrepancy between the intermittents generation and the guaranteed percentage by multiplying the total production (power) by the intermittents generation percentage less the guaranteed percentage. 5 Locate all time intervals of the discrepancy values with an average under the guaranteed percentage (i.e. using a rolling sum method). 6 Calculate, in hours, the length of all located time intervals. 7 Calculate the maximum subarray (the contiguous subarray of the time series with the largest sum) of the hourly discrepancies. Calculate the additive inverse of the sum of that number, which represents the energy gap of the ‘most significant’ located time interval. Report this value in the table. 8 For each year, calculate the mean, max, min, standard deviation (‘n − 1’ method i.e. sample not population) and standard error of the located time interval lengths. 9 Report the 50% confidence level in the table. 10 Calculate and report the 75% and 99% confidence levels using 1-tailed normal z-scores of 0.68 and 2.33, respectively. Nota bene. It should be noted that the standard error and standard deviation methods were run over low population sizes (the number of complete years in the dataset). For Spain n = 12, for Germany n = 8. With regard to the relatively low n value, readers are reminded that the nature of this work's analysis is to illustrate the methodology described previously and highlight plausible concerns involved. References [12] F. Dohmen, A. Jung, S. Schultz, G. 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