Environmental Science and Policy 106 (2020) 87–98 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Environmental Science and Policy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/envsci The technique is never neutral. How methodological choices condition the T generation of narratives for sustainability Andrea Saltellia,b,*, Lorenzo Beninic, Silvio Funtowicza, Mario Giampietrod,e, Matthias Kaisera, Erik Reinerta,f, Jeroen P. van der Sluijsa,g,h a Centre for the Study of the Sciences and the Humanities, University of Bergen, Norway b Open Evidence Research, Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (UOC), Barcelona, Spain c European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark d Institute of Environmental Science and Technology, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Spain e ICREA, Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies, Spain f Tallinn University of Technology, Tallinn, Estonia g Department of Chemistry, University of Bergen, Norway h Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, The Netherlands A R T I C LE I N FO A B S T R A C T Keywords: How to tackle uncertainties and ensure quality in integrated assessment for sustainability? To what extent does Sustainability the choice of the methodology condition the narrative produced by the analysis? The present work argues that Integrated assessment the two questions are tightly coupled. The technique is never neutral. If we are the tools of our tools, as suggested Post normal science by Thoreau, then it can also be said that language is not only a vehicle for communication, it is the driver as well. Controversy studies For this reason, in sustainability assessment it is not unusual to discern a close relationship between arguments Sensitivity auditing Bioeconomics made and methods adopted. In the present work a set of six reflexive analytical tools – we call them lenses – is Ethics suggested which could be pooled to the effect to appraise and improve the quality of integrated assessment and Ethical matrices the resulting sustainability narratives, and to alleviate the constraints of the method-argument dependency. Non-ricardian economics None of the lenses is new and each has been used before. Never have they been used together. The lenses are (i) Heterodox economics Post-normal science (PNS), (ii) Controversy studies, (iii) Sensitivity auditing, (iv) Bioeconomics, (v) Ethics of Honeybees science for governance, and (vi) Non-Ricardian economics. The six lenses are illustrated together with a set of Insectageddon case/narratives/arguments. The lenses allow some narratives – or methodologies – to be shown as either im- Food ethics plausible or inadequate, and new narratives to be developed to tackle pressing sustainability issues, which Nexus water-energy-food expand the horizon of possible strategies for a solution. Circular economy Transitions Decarbonization Green growth European environment agency Relational ecology “It is not uncommon for political programs to be decided in advance narratives, deliberately or unconsciously, particularly when solutions to simply by the choice of what expert representatives are included in complex challenges are sought and option spaces scrutinised. For ex- the circle of advisers.” (Beck, 1992) ample, the integrated assessments developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) offer no scenario exploring the effects of discontinuing economic growth, globally or in the affluent countries, 1. Introduction as policy options around sufficiency or degrowth were considered im- plausible, making continued economic growth for the next 80 years the Narratives are a key element of sustainability assessments, even default choice (Spangenberg and Polotzek, 2019). Whether one agrees while they are not always explicitly articulated. In turn, worldviews, or not on the choice, the example points to the fact that integrated values and imaginaries shape both individual and societal sustainability ⁎ Corresponding author at: Centre for the Study of the Sciences and the Humanities, University of Bergen, Norway. E-mail address: andrea.saltelli@uib.no (A. Saltelli). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.01.008 Received 1 May 2019; Received in revised form 15 January 2020; Accepted 16 January 2020 1462-9011/ © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/BY/4.0/). A. Saltelli, et al. Environmental Science and Policy 106 (2020) 87–98 assessments are unlikely to result in ‘critical objective evaluations’ con- relationship did not go unnoticed to the fathers of the ecological trary to what was suggested by UNEP (United Nations Environment movement, with their early critique of risk and cost benefit analyses Programme, 2007). In reality, global environmental assessments face a (Winner, 1989). broad range of divergent political stakes, interests and ethical values, as well We show how the adoption of the selected lenses can provide an as different forms of disputed knowledge claims (Kowarsch et al., 2017) alternative or a critique to existing mainstream visions and imaginaries. which must be somehow responded to in order to ensure the essential It can be argued, for example, that qualities of integrated assessments: saliency, legitimacy and credibility (Eckley et al., 2001). In global environmental assessments, the resolu- - while the EC ‘Circular economy package (EuropeanCommission, tion of ‘scientific’ divergent viewpoints and uncertainties cannot be 2019)’ contains valuable elements, a truly circular economy is not disentangled from political or ethical considerations, given the en- around the corner; tanglement between facts and values, therefore integrated approaches - decarbonizing European and global economies will not be achieved are required (Kowarsch et al., 2017). The present work combines six in a couple of decades; different analytical lenses to critically appraise narratives for sustain- - evidence-based policy suffers from serious pathologies of power ability. The six lenses are complementary and are pooled to appraise asymmetry which would demand our urgent attention; and improve the quality of integrated assessments and the resulting - trade may not be beneficial for those who trade diminishing return environmental narratives. None of the lenses is new and each has been goods (e.g. raw materials) as compared to those who trade in- used before. Never have they been used together. This selection of creasing return goods (e.g. high-end manufacture); lenses and proponents may result from a “contingent gathering of - pollinators decline - the closest likely ecological catastrophe - is the personalities dissatisfied with the dominant paradigms of integrated result of systemic institutional and regulatory failure. assessment”, as noted by a perceptive reviewer. They can also be thought of as an advocacy coalition, if not yet a school, although the These are just examples, and the positions taken in this work are not Centre for the Study for Science and the Humanities at the University of meant to represent a corpus, containing a unique revealed truth, which Bergen has become a common home where these ideas have currency is offered as a substitute for existing narratives. Nor are they presented and are disseminated in books (Benessia et al., 2016; Kovacic et al., at the exclusion of other valid approaches which might be used to re- 2019), projects, articles, symposia and courses1 . Undeniably, because visit common wisdoms. It will be argued instead that these lenses taken of their history of cooperation, these authors and their closest colla- together already allow a considerable and useful broadening of the borators can be thought of as an epistemic community. The vision of spectrum of existing discourses on sustainability. This entails, as it five of the seven authors of the present work is used in the context of a should, a critical analysis of some of the existing stories told about large EC funded research on the nexus between water, energy and food development, sustainability, and transitions, with their unspoken as- resources (Giampietro, 2018) (https://magic-nexus.eu/). In the MAGIC sumptions (Lent, 2017), and ethical implications (Jasanoff, 2018). project a combination of these lenses is used to check the plausibility of: Confronted with the present debate between techno-pessimists and (i) justification narratives (the why of the proposed policy); (ii) nor- techno-optimists (Fremaux and Barry, 2019; Eswaran, 2019, we pro- mative narrative (the what of the proposed policy); and (iii) explanation pose an avenue to tackle transitions endowed with a pragmatic outlook narratives (the how of the proposed policy), where the three categories and fungible instruments, while supporting the concept that original are taken from (Felt et al., 2007). The results of the project show that imaginaries need to be developed for a democratic and sustainable there is a lot of “uncomfortable knowledge” (Rayner, 2012) (unknown future of our relation with technology (Strand et al., 2018). As dis- knowns) that is ignored in current sustainability discussions. So far, the cussed below, each lens provides a different check of the quality of collaboration across this contingent gathering of personalities has narratives. proven fruitful and enlightening for all of those involved. Our hope is In the following sections we briefly illustrate the six lenses with a that it will function likewise for the reader. Given the geographical test case each. We than discuss what is achieved when these lenses are collocation of the authors, and their engagement in EU policy-related taken in combination. research, e.g. in MAGIC (Giampietro, 2018), in the cooperation with the European Environment Agency, and in European science advice fora 2. First lens, post normal science (Science Advice for Policy by European Academies, 2019), the text reads as Europe-centred, but the implications for policy are general. 2.1. The lens The lenses are (i) Post-normal science (PNS), (ii) Controversy stu- dies, (iii) Sensitivity auditing, (iv) Bioeconomics, (v) Ethics of science Post-normal science (PNS) (Funtowicz and Ravetz, 1993) is fore- for governance, and (vi) Non-Ricardian economics. The six lenses are most a set of practical insights in science for policy. PNS assists scien- presented using illustrative cases while focusing on the quality of nar- tists and stakeholders to work together when facts are uncertain, values ratives and arguments in integrated assessments for sustainability. The are in dispute, stakes high, and decisions urgent. PNS embraces com- present work addresses two main questions: plexity, and addresses the dangers of reductionism - the idea that every practical problem can be decomposed into a sum of simple technical • Is it possible to better tackle uncertainties and ensure quality in problems, or against the arbitrary distinction between facts and values, integrated assessment for sustainability? especially at the science-policy interface. • Is it possible to better deal with the fact that the choice of the PNS also shows the ineffectiveness of a problem-solving strategy methodology conditions the narratives produced by the analysis? that reduces policy questions to technical problems, for example when implausible cost-benefit analyses are employed to monetize the value of The present work argues that the two questions are coupled, be- environmental goods (Funtowicz and Ravetz, 1994) or when the pro- cause the technique is never neutral. If we have become the tools of our blem of food scarcity is presented as a technical problem of agricultural tools, as suggested by Thoreau, then it can also be said that language is management and production volume rather than an issue of unequal not only a vehicle for communication, it is the driver as well. distribution of power and resources (Saltelli and Lo Piano, 2017). PNS For this reason, in integrated sustainability assessment a close re- can be deployed in a whole range of issues, such as "eradication of lationship exists between arguments made and methods adopted. This exogenous pests […], offshore oil prospecting, legalization of recrea- tional psychotropic drugs, water quality, family violence, obesity, teenage morbidity and suicide, the ageing population, the prioritization 1 https://bit.ly/2WLbz0W, https://bit.ly/2NJKAyP, https://bit.ly/34BNGf7. of early childhood education, reduction of agricultural greenhouse 88 A. Saltelli, et al. Environmental Science and Policy 106 (2020) 87–98 gases, and balancing economic growth and environmental sustain- spectrum of the EEA institutional partners. ability” (Gluckman, 2014). A historic theme for PNS is science’s quality Developing the State and Outlook of the European environment control and governance system (Ravetz, 1971; Funtowicz and Ravetz, integrated assessment report 2020, the EEA has initiated a process to 1990; Saltelli and Funtowicz, 2017; Saltelli et al., 2016). ensure that the structure, and quality of the knowledge base, including PNS is suited for a broad set of “wicked” (Rittel and Webber, 1973) multiple sorts of uncertainty, are critically identified and commu- policy issues, drawing credibility and legitimacy from its focus in the nicated. quality of the problem-solving process and products. Quality in policy- To this goal, the assessment process has been set-up and articulated related research must encompass a plurality of perspectives and the according to the following steps: stock-taking of practices and ap- recognition of different sorts of uncertainty. In this way, quality re- proaches in academia and among similar institutions; awareness raising places truth as the focus of science deployed for the resolution of through workshops; and pragmatic application to the SOER context. It complex socio-environmental policy decision-making. has been deployed to foster diffusion of knowledge and stimulate de- Quality in PNS is assessed by an extended peer community, con- velopment of attitudes and skills among EEA staff involved in the stituted by all those with a stake or interest in the relevant issue – such drafting of the assessment. as accredited experts, affected or interested citizens, investigative The main outcome resulted in a guidance document in the form of a journalists, or whistle blowers. The extended peer community has an checklist for authors, aimed at facilitating assessment and commu- important role in framing the relevant practical issue, and proposing nication of overall robustness of findings in SOER thematic chapters. the techno-scientific problems to solve, thus ensuring that a diverse and The approach, tested and refined through interactions among EEA staff broad set of perspectives are included, and that no single interest members, has been largely inspired by guidance for uncertainty as- dominates and constraints the problem-solving process. sessment and communication developed in the Netherlands (Petersen In the context of the present proposal for an integrated set of lenses, et al., 2003, 2013; van der Sluijs and Petersen, 2008; Kloprogge et al., PNS provides a commitment to openness, plurality and prudence in 2007; Janssen et al., 2005), one of the first applications of PNS as a meeting the challenges of progress. Foremost, PNS’ standpoint is to reflexive tool for knowledge quality assessment in public institutions encourage multiple perspectives and ideational concepts, while at the (Petersen et al., 2011). same time promoting an active appreciation of the corresponding re- Overall, the thematic authors were guided toward the identification gimes of governance, of the involved actors, and of their interests, of uncertainties pertaining to framing, consistency between knowledge capabilities and stakes (University of Florence, 2020). base and the problem, as well as on more technical aspects. To facilitate further interactions and applicability, special emphasis has been put on 2.2. The lens in action: Post-normal concerns in a boundary organization - identifying aspects such as soundness and completeness of the knowl- towards reflexive practices in knowledge production and appraisal at the edge base, main limitations and degree of expert judgement involved. EEA In order to increase the relevance and visibility of the outcomes, overall reflections on the underpinning knowledge base and its robustness have The very concept of evidence, its operational definition and pro- been included in thematic summary tables, as a complement to en- duction, use and legitimacy are nowadays more challenged than ever. vironmental trends and prospects. Trust in public institutions and their narratives is eroding, and the role Aspects related to framing and pertinence of the knowledge base of experts and expertise in governance is contested (Benessia et al., have been left to the main text of the assessment, and to the processes of 2016). Under these new circumstances, known problems concerning interaction and feedback with institutional stakeholders. The un- uncertainty, ambiguity and scientific controversies are acquiring a re- certainties characterising systemic, forward-looking and solution-or- newed meaning, and relevance in the public debate. There is increased ientated aspects of the assessment, were the most difficult to deal with. recognition of the emergence of ‘socially contested facts’ in opposition Combining diverging perspectives within an overarching narrative has to a regime of ‘socially accepted facts’. Such changes are likely to in- implied choices, simplifications and even exclusions, limiting the ability fluence current and future environment within which the European to fully describe complex, uncertain and ambiguous aspects of sus- institutions operate. tainability challenges and responses. The European Environment Agency (EEA) is a recognized author- Overall, while unable to respond to all possible concerns regarding itative source of information on environmental matters, which pub- practice in a boundary organization (Guston, 2001) (e.g. epistemic lishes relevant assessments: EEA’s State and Outlook of the European authority and extended peer community) the next edition of the SOER environment (SOER) 2015 had a potential audience of 55 million report is expected to reflect an improved understanding of quality and people in Europe. According to its mission,2 “The EEA aims to support uncertainty issues as well as improved transparency in their commu- sustainable development and to help achieve significant and measurable nication. Though incremental, this can be regarded as an important improvement in Europe’s environment through the provision of timely, tar- advancement. Also, the spill-over effect that EEA’s products and ap- geted, relevant and reliable information to policy makers and the public.” proaches have in framing environmental and sustainability challenges Attention to quality issues and uncertainty is not new for the in Europe should not be underestimated, also for what concerns coun- (Funtowicz et al., 1999; Eckley et al., 2001; EEA (2017)), and it has tries reporting across the European environment information and ob- increased as a result of public concerns over the quality of environ- servation network (Eionet). mental studies (Petersen et al., 2011), which triggered more explicit and systematic treatment of uncertainty in sustainability assessments. 3. Second lens, controversy studies Because of the uneven distribution of uncertainty treatment across the EEA knowledge chain (i.e. the Monitoring-Data-Indicator-Assessment- 3.1. The lens Knowledge framework), and the progressive shift in attention towards solution-orientated, systems and sustainability assessments, quality Science and society increasingly face endless controversies on issues concerns have increased. For instance, uncertainties of less technical such as e.g. the desirability of genetically modified food, the use of nature, and relevant to world-views, values, and trade-offs have come geoengineering to fight climate change, or the relative importance of to the fore which requires to engage more prominently with civil so- interacting causes in explaining observed patterns of pollinator decline. ciety and multiple stakeholders, broadening the already ample More and better science on these risks will not necessarily close the controversies (Sarewitz, 2004). Additionally, the phenomenon of scientific dissent and controversy 2 https://www.eea.europa.eu/about-us tends to be under-addressed in existing analyses of uncertainty and 89 A. Saltelli, et al. Environmental Science and Policy 106 (2020) 87–98 quality at the science-policy interface, where the prevailing narrative a high risk.” tends to exalt consensus, often used instrumentally to adjudicate a On April 27, 2018, the European Commission decided to impose a political debate (van der Sluijs et al., 2010). ban on three of the six neonicotinoids that are allowed in Europe, after This lens suggests a systematic mapping and analysing of how so- managing to achieve the necessary qualified majority among EU cietal interests and conflicts co-shape the ways in which evidence is member states. All outdoor uses of three active substances use in plant produced, communicated and used, how uncertainty is dealt with, how protection products (Bayer’s imidacloprid and clothianidin, and institutionalized styles of reasoning on evidence and regulatory fra- Syngenta’s thiamethoxam) are be banned, and use is only permitted in meworks co-define whose evidence counts and what style of scientific permanent greenhouses (Michalopoulos, 2018). reasoning (Hacking, 1985). In-depth insight is thus obtained in the This does not at all solve the problem of widespread pollution with anatomy of scientific dissent and the surrounding controversies. This this class of persistent chemicals in Europe because: can in turn be used to anticipate conflict and manage it proactively, -the use of these 3 chemicals as plant protection products in improve uncertainty communication and enhance the quality and greenhouses continues and the also large scale use of these three che- transparency of scientific assessments. This lens acknowledges its debt micals as biocide in cattle breeding, treatment of fleas and flies in pets to critical discourse analysis and to the practice of ‘constructive de- and treatment of transport vehicles (containers, ships, trucks, cattle- construction’ typical of a PNS style of analysis. In the integrated set of trucks, etc.) continues to pollute surface waters and soils from where lenses proposed in this work this particular lens takes the phenomenon the toxic substances will continue to translocate to pollen and nectar of of scientific controversy as the object of the analysis, as opposed to an wild plants. accident in the treatment of a controversial case. It tests the quality of -after the 2013 and 2018 bans, for many applications there has been existing narratives when scientific dissent, i.e. the co-existence of a be a shift to the 3 other neonicotinoids that are still allowed in Europe, plurality of tenable but conflicting scientific interpretations of the same thiacloprid, acetamiprid and sulfoxaflor. body of evidence, is taken as part of the definition of the problem. As Based on a conclusion by EFSA that thiacloprid is not safe for human noted by Beck (1992). health (Abdourahime et al., 2019), on 22 October 2019, the EU decided “— from the experts and the fundamental controversies they have not the renew the authorization of thiacloprid, meaning that after April fought out (or not fought out) one can learn how unwelcome results can 2020 thiacloprid is no longer allowed for outdoor use in agriculture. be blocked professionally (by methodological criticism, for instance).” Critical discourse analysis and institutional analysis have been used in (Maxim and van der Sluijs, 2007) to interpret the controversy. The 3.2. The lens in action: Chemicals pollution and biodiversity and ecosystem case study revealed the existence of two ‘discourse coalitions’: services: the case of neonicotinoid insecticides and entomofauna collapse (insectageddon) (1) One, represented by Bayer, AFSSA and partially the Ministry, make reference, in their public discourses, to all honeybee losses (ev- This case deals with the parallel increase of honeybee disorders erywhere in France, in all seasons). They do not particularly focus reported in many European countries (e.g. France, Belgium, Italy, on sunflower and maize areas, or on the specific signs observed by Portugal, Germany, Netherlands, UK, Greece) and in American apiaries beekeepers in these areas. However, they make reference to other (Maxim and van der Sluijs, 2010; van der Sluijs et al., 2013) and the potentially causal factors in arguing for a non-causal relationship global declines in wild pollinators (van der Sluijs and Vaage, 2016), and between imidacloprid and honeybees. insects in general (Hallmann et al., 2017), which has received con- (2) The second, represented by beekeepers and public scientists, affirm siderable mediatic attention (Monbiot, 2017; Le Monde, 2020) and is the determinant role of imidacloprid in honeybee losses found in the subject of an intense controversy involving important players in the sunflower and maize areas, all stating that many causes, among agrochemical sector. The available evidence correlates overall insect which diseases must require particular attention, can lead to hon- decline to intensive agriculture with systemic neonicotinoid insecticides eybee losses all over France. Some beekeepers also pointed to the as the most problematic class of agrochemicals. sublethal action of imidacloprid and to its possible synergic effects Neonicotinoids - the globally most widely used and fastest growing with diseases. class of insecticides, and whose residual we now regularly ingest with food and vegetable (Lu et al., 2018), are very high on the list of per- Specific to the case, it identified the following sources of con- sistent organochlorine pollutants of emerging concern and are con- troversy: sidered to be one of the key drivers of this global collapse of insect populations (Hladik et al., 2018; Sánchez-Bayo and Wyckhuys, 2019). • Lack of shared definition and quantification of the signs The collapse has a number of repercussions including loss of biodi- • Lack of specialist knowledge on honeybees versity and impairment of ecosystem resilience, also outside of the in- • Patterns of strategic discursive practices: part of the debate on sect realm, and poses a global risk to insect-mediated ecosystem ser- ‘multi-causality versus imidacloprid was due to confusion, to stra- vices such as pollination, soil and freshwater functions (decomposition tegic discursive practices and to passionate attitudes regarding of organic matter and nutrient cycling), fisheries, biological pest con- persons from the ‘opposite camp’. The experts themselves are trol. Such insect-mediated ecosystem services are essential for eco- trapped in the socio-political position associated with an argument system functioning and global food security. and stop thinking critically about its plausibility. In February 2018 EFSA published its long-awaited new risk assess- ment (https://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/press/news/180228) and con- Based on this analysis (Maxim and van der Sluijs, 2007) six new cluded that most uses of neonicotinoid pesticides represent a risk to knowledge quality criteria are proposed that can assist in assessing the wild bees and honeybees. These new conclusions update those pub- information communicated in an argumentative public process: lished in 2013, after which the European Commission imposed controls on use of the substances. For the new assessments, which this time 1 Reliability of the information – it must be based on all available cover wild bees – bumblebees and solitary bees – as well as honeybees, scientific knowledge; EFSA’s Pesticides Unit carried out an extensive data collection exercise, 2 Robustness of the information – it must take into account criticism; including a systematic literature review, to gather all the scientific 3 Use of the information produced by other stakeholders; evidence published since the previous evaluations. The risk to bees 4 Relevancy of the arguments for issue under debate; varied depending on the crop and exposure route, but “for all the 5 Logical coherence of the discourse; outdoor uses, there was at least one aspect of the assessment indicating 6 Legitimacy of the information source. 90 A. Saltelli, et al. Environmental Science and Policy 106 (2020) 87–98 Further, our findings deepen the understanding of the relationships An important implication of this rule is that a model cannot be between the social, economic, and institutional stakes of the actors audited for sensitivity once and for all, but needs to be re-audited in involved in the debate and their strategies of ‘creating uncertainty’ the context of each specific application of the model. (Michaels, 2008). Recent applications of these methodologies were in the field of 4. Third Lens, sensitivity auditing models for the costing of climate change (Saltelli and d’Hombres, 2010), the ecological footprint (Giampietro and Saltelli, 2014), GMO 4.1. The lens (Saltelli et al., 2017), the OECD-PISA studies (Araujo et al., 2017), epidemiology (Lo Piano and Robinson, 2019), and the food security Sensitivity auditing (not to be confused with sensitivity analysis case described here (Saltelli and Lo Piano, 2017). An extension of rule 6 (Saltelli et al., 2008)) addresses models and indicators when used at the about how to characterize and evaluate the framing of an issue is science-policy interface. It includes and extends global uncertainty and quantitative storytelling (Saltelli and Giampietro, 2017; Renner and sensitivity analyses and checks for rhetoric or ritual use of mathema- Giampietro, 2020; Kuc-Czarnecka et al., 2020). Sensitivity auditing is tical modelling. Sensitivity auditing is especially suited to deconstruct part of an ongoing reflection on ethics of quantification (Saltelli, 2019, dubious quantifications, reframe contested issues and possibly defuse 2020). controversies. Given the omnipresence of quantification in environ- mental and sustainability assessment, this lens plays the role of fact 4.2. The lens in action: Feeding the planet in 2050 checking, looking specifically at the quality (both normative and technical) of numbers and their production. Sensitivity auditing, as A study (Badur et al., 2016) has suggested that improving in agri- distinct from uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis, is ex- cultural techniques and adopting better dietary styles will lead to pro- tensively described and commented both in the European Commission ducing more food on less land, as to feed, in 2050, ten billion people. guidelines for impact assessment (European Commission, 2009) and in The scenario proposed in the study frames the world as suffering from a more recent report of the science academies on science for policy obesity in the developed countries and hunger in developing countries (SAPEA, Science Advice for Policy by European Academies, 2019). because of the inappropriateness of the global food production system. Uncertainty quantification involves a propagation of the un- The proposed solutions aim at better diets and the contextual reduction certainties of the input factors and assumptions throughout the model, of common diseases such as obesity and diabetes. This is achieved all the way up to the model-based inference. Scholars from various thanks to the world agriculture reducing the production of cereals, disciplines (Leamer, 1985; Funtowicz and Ravetz, 1990) have noted starches, oils, fats, and sugars in favour of that of fruit and vegetables. that a modeller might resort to ‘massaging’, e.g. arbitrarily reducing or The policy mix advocated to meet these goals includes consumer inflating, the uncertainty depending upon whether one wishes to re- education, better food literacy and cooking skills, taxing unhealthy inforce or to invalidate a model-based assessment. food, limiting the use of antibiotics, mitigating greenhouse gas emission A global quantitative sensitivity analysis (Saltelli et al., 2008) in agriculture, reducing the US corn subsidy, and realizing better sto- explores systematically the space of the input factors (Saltelli and rage facilities in developing countries. Note that all measures but the Annoni, 2010) in order to ascertain which input factor or assumption last are to be implemented in developed countries. Sensitivity auditing drives the uncertainty, and which is instead uninfluential. notes instead (Saltelli and Lo Piano, 2017): Scientific evidence presented in support to policy is likely to be conflictual and disputed. In upholding their peculiar knowledge claims, • The study proposes 9 % reduction in land use, and 1 % yearly im- all sides in disputes may be guilty of inappropriate generalizations, provement in production between now and 2050, when population hidden value judgements and misrepresentation of the other parties’ is assumed at 10 billion. Doing the computations, it results that the arguments. In these situations, a model-based assessment may be vul- same amount of food per capita is produced in 2050 as today. Hence nerable to the choice of the model itself, to the institutional or in- the future scenario does not generate more food per person on dustrial setting where the model was developed, and to the framing of average. the study. This is addressed by sensitivity auditing’s seven points • Assuming that agriculture can grow on average by 1 % between now checklist (Saltelli et al., 2013): and 2050 implying neglecting the existing and projected stress on soils. • Rule 1: ‘Check against rhetorical use of mathematical modelling’; • Will people desire to adopt a less cereal-and-meat-based diet? In are results being over-interpreted? Is the model being used ritually 2050 there will be a higher share of adults given the forecasted or rhetorically? reduction in fertility, and adults need more calories than children. • Rule 2: ‘Adopt an “assumption hunting” attitude’; this would focus Additionally, existing literature points to an increasing consumption on unearthing possibly implicit assumptions. of meat in developing countries. • Rule 3: ‘Detect pseudo-science’; this asks whether uncertainty has • As per the role of education, the study (European Commission, been downplayed, as discussed above, in order to present results in a 2019) presents smoking as an example of how better policies and more favourable light. education may lead to better habits. In fact, while smoking de- • Rule 4: ‘Find sensitive assumptions before these find you’; this is a creases in developed countries it increases in many developing ones. reminder that before publishing results the analysis of sensitivity Developing countries have weaker regulatory systems, less capable should be done and made accessible to researchers. to counteract food lobbies, so that the desired policies are pre- • Rule 5: ‘Aim for transparency’. This rule echoes present debates on dicated on a global improvement of governance. open data, and of the need for a third party to be able to replicate a given analysis. An alternative framing of the issue could consider that asymmetries • Rule 6: ‘Do the right sums’; the analysis should not solve the wrong in the political power of trade patterns are at the root of the issue of diet problem – doing the right sums is more important than doing the quality in several areas of the world, a phenomenon that has been re- sums right. This rule is about asking whether the given quantifica- cently named ‘caloric unequal exchange’. Although the export from tion is not neglecting important alternative ways to frame a given Latin America and the Caribbean to the rest of the world are more example. expensive than those imported, the ratio of the two is decreasing with • Rule 7: ‘Focus the analysis on the key question answered by the time, with the global south subsidizing the diet of the global north. model, exploring holistically the entire space of the assumptions’. Hence the proposed scenario applies a developed world perspective, 91 A. Saltelli, et al. Environmental Science and Policy 106 (2020) 87–98 substituting a political problem - power asymmetry, with a technical Energy security one - a mismatch between what the world needs for everyone to enjoy a The same linearization of flows took place in relation to energy nutritious diet and what the world is actually producing. security when moving from biomass to fossil energy. The supply of energy to modern society is obtained by linear flows coming from 5. Fourth lens, Bioeconomics stocks of fossil energy providing a density and a pace of energy flows which is orders of magnitude higher than the one obtainable when 5.1. The lens using biomass produced by closing nutrient cycles (Smil, 2015). The industrial revolution implied a dramatic switch from an exploitation of Bio-economics was suggested by Nicholas (Georgescu-Roegen renewable energy sources – flows of biomass and other sources pro- (1977)) as a necessary complement to neo-classical economics in order vided by natural processes – to non-renewable energy sources – fossil to avoid the dangerous hypo-cognition determined by its simplistic reserves accumulated by natural processes for millions of years. framing of the issue of sustainability. Bioeconomics analyses in a When considering biophysical processes adopted by modern socie- transdisciplinary way the interaction of the socio-economic process ties to guarantee food and energy security we can conclude that the with the ecological processes in which the society is embedded de- major boost in productivity of both land and labor have been obtained scribing the metabolic pattern of socio-ecological systems across dif- because of a clear linearization of flows. Relying on nature to “close the ferent levels and dimensions. In particular, the accounting method of loop” will imply a major reduction in the productivity of production Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism factors (a green degrowth). (MuSIASEM) identifies and characterizes the factors determining the “feasibility” (e.g. existence of external biophysical constraints when 5.2.2. In theoretical terms - the elephant in the room: the entropic nature of looking at the compatibility of processes taking place in the techno- the economic process sphere with processes taking place in the biosphere), “viability” (e.g. What is circulated in the economy of developed countries? existence of internal biophysical and economic constraints affecting A paper entitled “how circular is the global economy” published by processes inside the technosphere) and “desirability” (e.g. stakeholders’ (Haas et al. (2015)) provides clear evidence that both the economy of norms and world views determining the stability of institutional set- the world and that of developed economies (they use the assessment of tings) of the metabolic pattern. In the context of the present integrated the European Union as example) is not circular. The analysis of the set this particular lens provides an additional layer of fact checking material flows in Europe, for the year 2005 shows that 52 % of the (also here both technical and normative) based on the discipline of material input (without considering water) is composed of either food bioeconomics. It can unencumber the public discourse from fantastic or energy inputs: these are two flows that by default are degraded in an scenarios which simply ‘don’t compute’ in light of bioeconomic ana- irreversible way and that therefore cannot be recycled. Another 45 % of lysis. the material input is composed of construction materials that are in- corporated in the societal fund elements in the form of buildings and 5.2. The lens in action: A biophysical analysis of the circular economy infrastructures. This leaves a 3 % of material goods that could be re- cycled. Recycling rates of these materials differ substantially among Neo-classical economics portrays the economic process as a self- materials and countries (Smil, 2013), but the level of recirculation of sustaining merry-go-round between production and consumption of the materials in consumable and durable products is generally low – the goods and services, in which the crucial role of the environment in average over the mix is well below 40 % (Cullen, 2017). providing primary inputs and recycling wastes is simply not considered The entropic nature of the economy (Giampietro, 2019). Therefore, we can say that the idea of ‘circular However, it should be noted that there is an elephant in the room economy’ is a direct legacy of a systemic adoption of economic narra- missed by the analysis of material flows given above: the key role of tives when framing the sustainability predicament. Two considerations water in making the metabolic pattern of modern economies possible. based on biophysical analysis can be used to show the fundamental Water is the engine used by Gaia to keep life on our planet and it is challenges that the concept of circular economy entails when ecological essential in preserving the health of ecosystems. The contribution of the constraints are taken into account and confronted with an economic water cycle, totally outside of human control, both in energy and matter paradigm advocating for infinite growth. terms, is orders of magnitude larger than the material and energy flows metabolized by society (Giampietro, 2003). Using a very conservative 5.2.1. In empirical terms – the industrial revolution has been “the big estimate of 300 tonnes of water evapotranspirated per tonne of biomass linearization” produced and consumed by society the water used by natural processes Food security to produce human food is more than 100 times larger than the solid Since 1970 the size of human population has doubled whereas the material flow metabolized by society. When considering also this ele- production of food has more than doubled (because of the double ment we can conclude that Georgescu-Roegen was right, the economy is conversion to produce animal products). The need of continuously an entropic process which is based on the availability of primary boosting food production for a growing population (demographic sources and primary sinks provided “free-of charge” by nature. Natural pressure entails less land per capita) using less farmers in the work force processes are free, but unfortunately, they have a pace and a density (the bio-economic pressure associated with massive urbanization) has that do not match the required productivity of the production factors implied the abandonment of traditional and ecological friendly expected in developed economies. methods of agricultural production (where nutrients were naturally re- circulated). The progressive move to the paradigm of industrial agri- 6. Fifth lens, Ethics of science for governance culture implies that nutrients and other inputs are based on massive injection of fossil energy (Pimentel and Pimentel, 2008). The pace and 6.1. The lens density of natural deposition of nitrogen in the soil would not make it possible to achieve average yields of 7−10 tonnes of grain per hectare – This lens tackles the integration of ethical concern in the way sci- what is achieved by modern agriculture in developed countries. Even ence is produced and deployed in support to a given policy into the more important is the constraint on the limited size of the work force in assessments of progress in science and technology towards a sustainable agriculture in developed countries. To achieve a productivity of labor in future. Ethical concerns may pertain the integrity of the science, the the order of thousand kg of grain/hour modern agriculture is based on ethical conduct of research experiments, and the social responsibility in high external input mechanized monocultures. science and technology - now addressed under the term Responsible 92 A. Saltelli, et al. Environmental Science and Policy 106 (2020) 87–98 Research and Innovation (RRI). All of these concerns refer to underlying only partially overlap. Controversy surrounds the available catch data values and basic ethical issues. The use of methodologies such as ethical due to the importance of illegal or unreported activities (Pauly and matrices, value mapping and value atlas can help to ensure that both Zeller, 2016) to the effect that global assessments differ. fact-based and value-based elements of a study can be properly con- Stock assessments (be they global or local) are beset with inherent textualised. The purpose of this lens in the economy of the present work uncertainties, and the very same methods used to arrive at such as- is – again – a quality check of the proposed narratives, to debunk those sessments vary significantly. which are evidently and fatally based of the normative and cultural Similar conflicts plague the aquaculture community and marine frames of the observer and not of the observed. It seeks alignment with scientists. What is the environmental and resource impact of current social values and contributes, thus, to trust among the knowledge aquaculture? Why is there widespread consumer scepticism against producers and knowledge-users. aquaculture products? How do we assess the potential of future aqua- culture development, be it on land-based or integrated multi-trophic systems? Here we find the same or similar value-infectedness as with 6.2. The lens in action: The variety of values of seafood production and the fisheries. For some scientists, the ecological accounting of aqua- value chains culture bespeaks extensive small-scale production units, regulated by strict certification schemes and legal regimes. For others, intensive Seafood is globally the most traded commodity, and it is securing an large-scale production is an obvious need in view of the need to feed an ever-increasing market share in industrialised countries. Because of its increasing global population, and to meet expectations of the global importance, coupled to both highly positive potentials (food security: markets. more high quality healthy, safe food etc.) and to negative scenarios To complicate an already complex picture the possible introduction (depleting the ocean resources, polluting coastal zones, decreasing of genetically modified production fish in aquaculture needs to be quality of food, fish diseases, etc.), seafood is on everybody’s agenda. considered (Aqua Bounty, 2019), with its ethical implications. The prospect of a blue (sustainable maritime) economy seems like one As the value chain of seafood is to a very large extent long and of the few promising development paths which can capture the minds global, knowledge about similarities and differences in the values and of people, very much like the Klondike of the past. Yet, closer inspection ethical principles of the involved cultures cannot be excluded. Ongoing reveals some major challenges. research in practical ethics (Kaiser, 2006) involves the creation of value First of all, ecology: expanding the production of food from the atlas (University of Bergen, 2019), aimed at gathering the most sig- oceans implies major interventions and changes in our ecosystems. This nificant data, surveys and studies on attitudes and values related to an seems also relevant for future aquaculture developments. Given that important development path of economy, science and technology. many of our marine ecosystems in many parts of the world are highly Empirical research to this end may utilise value-mapping as exemplified vulnerable already, and given far-reaching protection goals of these in a study of aquaculture in Asia (Bremer et al., 2013). Ethical con- ecosystems, managing significantly increased seafood productions siderations are also addressed via ethical matrices (Mepham, 2000) without polluting effects or other potential harms (fish diseases, di- where chosen ethical principles are specified in regard to the interests minishing stocks, and so on) appears a delicate task. All such inter- of different stakeholders. ventions will generate societal value conflicts and intense political de- Assume the aim is to assess the ethical aspects of a certain genetic bate. modification of a fish species for food production in a region. Following Secondly, socio-cultural challenge: growth also implies huge soci- the ethical matrix approach, the first task would be to identify the re- etal efforts and new infrastructures to integrate the increased novel levant stakeholders, e.g. small-scale producers and consumers. Another food production into ordinary market mechanisms, as seafood is to a requirement would be to identify potentially affected organisms and large part traded in long value chains across the globe. Local market their components of the environment, for example fish and biota. A supply is still the rule in developing poor countries, but in industrialised proper set of ethical principles needs then to be established: justice/ countries, as e.g. Europe, globally traded seafood dominates the market. fairness, dignity/autonomy, the obligation to do no harm and the goal What can be seen so far is that ethical concerns seem to gain more of doing good, for example. Once a common understanding of these ground among consumers and should perhaps be included in our po- principles is ensured, it is important that the principles are specified for licies (Kaiser and Algers, 2016). each interest perspective. The result is an ethical matrix that represents Thirdly, divided science: in regard to fisheries we see that managing the starting point of the ethical assessment, here from (Kaiser, 2005). fish stocks in our oceans seems a permanent unfinished business, with (Table 1) some scientific assessments pointing in one direction and political This test case shows how facts and values are deeply intertwined multi-national decision-making on quota going in another direction, when discussing seafood production and consumption. The topic of always with higher allowances. Precaution and short-term economic seafood (as assumedly the topic of food in general) should be connected gains seem at cross-purposes to the detriment of the fish stocks. to deep seated value issues, and these values should be made explicit. The situation concerning seafood as combining both fisheries and This applies equally to the value-infectedness of most of the scientific aquaculture shows all the typical signs of post-normality (Lens 1): facts expertise dealing with this topic. Presentations of relatively complex are uncertain, values disputed, decisions urgent and decision stakes are issues like the state of the fish stocks in the oceans or the prospects of high. Even the most basic depictions of the state-of-the art, of the aquaculture developments should at the outset be designed to present a problems, and of the option space are so deeply value-infected that they Table 1 Ethical matrix for a genetically modified fish species. Ethical matrix for gm-fish: Do avoid doing any harm Do try to do some good Dignity / autonomy Justice / fairness Small producers Dependencies on nature and Adequate income and work Freedom to adopt or not to adopt Fair treatment in trade corporations security Consumers Safe food Nutritional quality Respect for consumer choice General affordability of food product Food security (labelling) Treated fish Proper animal welfare Improved disease resistance Behavioural freedom Respect for natural capacities (telos) Biota Pollution and strain on natural Increasing sustainability Maintenance of biodiversity No additional strain on regional natural resources Improved resilience resources 93 A. Saltelli, et al. Environmental Science and Policy 106 (2020) 87–98 range of different viewpoints and data entries (Value Atlas). One of the increasing returns goods and locks them into activities exploiting dangers is the fixation of ethical assessments to a single tool of practical nature under diminishing returns. ethics (e.g. the ethical matrix), in the belief that all relevant aspects of The distinction between increasing and diminishing returns is cru- the complex issue have indeed been captured. We surmise that this cial in understanding the difference – in energy production, between happened, for instance, in the field of medical ethics, where one ana- unsustainable extraction e.g. of oil and coal versus the sustainable lytic tool gained prominence over all others (Beauchamp and Childress, manufacturing of harvesting energy from wind and sun. 2013). Ethical issues – their normative nature notwithstanding - are The quality checks offered by this lens are crucial – no transition or always highly contextual and to a certain extent culture-dependent, at development is possible based on a flawed economic theory. least in terms of social acceptance. Openness to different value-land- scapes and plurality in the ethical toolbox are a pre-requisite for 7.2. The lens in action: Evaluating the Potential for Green Growth in a avoiding that in-built bias of the analyst significantly skews the as- context of Technology Optimism and Technology Pessimism sessment. Finally, conflicted topics regarding seafood (or similar topics) should be presented with entries that can guide the user to further This test case investigates the consequences of adopting a different ethical reflection and include as much relevant data and knowledge as economic canon to look at transitions. possible. The standard, neo-classical canon of economic development is in- strumental in maintaining radical differences between the global North 7. Sixth lens, non-Ricardian economics and the global South, a difference pursued by the colonial powers against their colonies since the XIX century, and based on keeping them 7.1. The lens de-industrialized (Reinert, 2008; Reinert and Daastøl, 2004). In a world of perfect free trade, forbidden to develop their own system of manu- While non-Ricardian economics may sound as a term of the craft, it factures and innovation, developing countries are lectured on the need is gaining traction in the context of the present climate of yet timid to develop e.g. the right institutions - as if the right institutions could revision of economic theory (Macfarlane, 2017). It denotes the eco- produce the successful model of economic development. We refer to nomic theories which refute Ricardo’s theorem of comparative ad- this presently popular approach – focusing on the symptoms rather than vantage and decries its momentous implications in the present mostly on the causes of poverty – as palliative economics (Reinert, 2008). neoliberal institutional arrangements, as discussed below. A relevant History teaches a different lesson, one where Novelty, Diversity, work in this context is “How rich countries got rich and why poor countries Scale, and Synergy and the interaction between these factors produce stay poor” (Reinert, 2008). First published in 2007, it is now translated wealth - in a system which allows countries to dynamically pursue in- into more than twenty languages, confirming that the transition is creasing returns activities which in turn demand the development of within our Zeitgeist just alluded to. appropriate institutions. Applied in the restricted context of the Even environmental studies need to rely on an economic paradigm, European Union, the standard Ricardian canon is presently damaging implicitly or explicitly. What would happen if the prevailing paradigms economies of east European countries where signals of re-feudalization were flawed? We argue that today’s mainstream economic theory is are appearing as a result of the destruction of their manufacture flawed for a number of reasons, and this section lists some of them (Reinert et al., 2016). More, the present situation which advantages the (Reinert, 2008). During the Enlightenment the establishment of taxo- developed countries is unsustainable in the long term - as the increasing nomies – as in the case of Linnaeus – created order. Similarly, in eco- number of failing states shows. From the early Italian city states until nomics, there were theories of ‘good’ and ‘bad’ trade for a country the Marshall Plan it has been understood that wealth was a result of (King, 1721). A key feature of today’s economic theory is the lack of any synergies between increasing returns activities, i.e. industry and man- taxonomy. A simple taxonomy of three different types of economic ufacture. The fact that the world's most efficient farmers - in the EU and activities would explain the old idea of ‘good’ and ‘bad’ trade, and it US - still need subsidies and protection testifies to this. will also assist us in distinguishing where technology optimism is ap- The direct application of these concepts to the energy futures propriate and where technology pessimism seems most appropriate: (Mathews and Reinert, 2014) suggest adopting renewables and clean- tech, not just for emission reduction, but because these embody tech- • Activities subject to diminishing returns to scale, i.e. when one factor nological change, manufacturing, learning curve effects, and are thus of production is limited by nature (agriculture, mining, fisheries). capable of capturing increasing returns. In contrast, fossil fuels are a This makes economics into a ‘dismal’ science because increasing typical diminishing returns activity. production yields increasingly lower production. These activities are Putting renewable energies at the core of a country’s industrial subject to perfect competition, e.g. increased productivity tends to policy will drive down costs as the country moves along the learning lower prices to the consumer rather than increase profits and wages curve. As costs decline, so the market expands and even more specia- to the producers. lized activities can be developed. These in turn enhance productivity • Activities subject to constant returns to scale. Traditional service and lead to further market expansion, further fall in costs, and further sector, professions like barbers and house painters. specialization within a well-tested capitalist system of “circular and • Activities subject to increasing returns to scale. Here each new unit of cumulative causation‟. production lowers the costs of production, allowing for imperfect We argue that the energy choices currently being made by China competition by creating high barriers to entry into the industry. and India appear to conform to this reading, whereby China might be the first country to lead the path to an expansion of the market for Paradoxically, if one looks at the history of economics, the present renewables and reduction of the costs made possible by the increasing orthodoxy – which neglects these fundamental distinctions, represents a returns. With renewable power energy can be harvested, which at minority view in a secular perspective of human development (Reinert present is only practiced in hydropower, while with fossil fuels it needs et al., 2017; Reinert and Reinert, 2019) where nations’ strategy has to be extracted under diminishing returns. This path to transition based been to manufacture/industrialize first, and open to the market later. on an industrial policy focusing on renewables appears much more Exporting raw materials in order to import manufactured goods was for promising and better supported by evidence than generic calls for centuries seen as ‘bad trade’. “more innovation‟ or for taxes on carbon-intensive activities. As for the Thus, this lens argues that sustainability is hampered by the pre- past, a period of protection will be needed to let these “infant in- vailing, neoclassical, free-trade-based paradigm which de facto blocks dustries” gain speed. At present, the case for renewables is opposed by developing countries’ path to development based on manufacture of vested interest of the fossil fuel sector (Mayer, 2017) as well as by the so 94 A. Saltelli, et al. Table 2 Role of each of the lenses in enhancing integrated assessments. The focus is on main attributes according to EEA’s perspective: salience, legitimacy and credibility (Eckley et al., 2001). Salience Legitimacy Credibility Lens Role Definition: (or relevance) is intended to reflect the Definition: is a measure of the political Definition: reflects the scientific and technical ability of an assessment to address the particular acceptability or perceived fairness of an believability of the assessment to a defined user of concerns of a user. An assessment is salient to a user assessment to a user. A legitimate assessment that assessment, often in the scientific community. if that user is aware of the assessment, and if that process is one which has been conducted in a More credible assessments have done better at user deems that assessment relevant to current manner that allows users to be satisfied that their ensuring this sort of technical adequacy. policy or behavioural decisions interests have been taken into account, and that the process has been a fair one Post-Normal Science A set of practical insights in science for policy, Broad participation through extended peer The inclusion of multiple viewpoints (e.g. Credibility is increased by adopting PNS-related assisting scientists, stakeholders in working communities reveals multiple framings and precautionary concerns) and engagement in knowledge quality assurance tools and processes together when facts are uncertain, values in concerns to be included in the integrated assessment extended-peer communities composed by experts, e.g. NUSAP, checklists dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent. Quality affected or interest citizens, journalists or whistle is assessed with extended peer community, blowers, ensures more legitimacy compared to a constituted by all those with a stake of interest in technocratic approach the relevant issue Controversy studies An approach to analyse openly and systematically, Mapping of societal interests and conflicts co- Ensures that multiple sources of evidence and Credibility is increased as multiple sources of scientific dissent and controversy, in contrast to shaping evidence production, use and related controversy are included providing a more uncertainty and contrasting viewpoints are 95 'consensus' approaches communication can help in ensuring sound framing balanced representation and greater fairness explicitly dealt with, leading to improved of integrated assessments, improving salience understanding of the quality of narratives Sensitivity auditing An approach that addresses models and indicators Ensures relevance of the proposed quantification Allows to deconstruct framings and imaginaries The scrutiny of the knowledge base underpinning used at the science-policy interface, which builds across the board, facilitating a more transparent an integrated assessment through this lens could on uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, checks and open dialogue greatly increase credibility by screening out against rhetoric use of modelling and deconstructs dubious quantitative outcomes and shoddy dubious quantifications methods. Bioeconomy A necessary complement to neo-classical By allowing non-equivalent quantitative Allows to deconstruct framings and imaginaries Ensures that the quantification of socio-economic economics that analyses the interactions of societal representations across levels and scales it allows to across the options space (feasibility, viability, and ecological processes are consistent with socio-economic processes with ecological processes identify “winners and losers” hidden in the original desirability), facilitating a more transparent and feasibility and viability constraints, exposing by focusing on metabolic patterns of socio- story-telling used to support the policy (fight open dialogue incompatible assumptions, thus ensuring ecological systems across different levels and scales hypocognition) credibility to the assessment Ethics of science for Approach tackling the integration of ethical Addresses multiple stakeholders' questions, Stakeholders’ perspectives and values are explicitly governance concerns in science development and use at the viewpoints and framings and can contribute in accounted and discussed, increasing the legitimacy policy interface. It targets the inclusion of each identifying the right questions, thus increasing of the outcome interest perspective through practical ethics (e.g. salience value atlas, ethical matrices) Non-Ricardian Economic theory that refutes Ricardo's theorem of It is based on economic theory which has proven It gives voice to other perspectives regarding Inclusion of alternative framing through which to economics comparative advantage and discusses implications relevant and salient through centuries of history of economic development and power relations, decompose some axioms regarding economic in the present, neoliberal institutional economic thought generally not aligned with main international development arrangement, by embracing experience based institutions. Likely to improve fairness economic theory - the continental historical schools of economics Environmental Science and Policy 106 (2020) 87–98 A. Saltelli, et al. Environmental Science and Policy 106 (2020) 87–98 called “neutral‟ economists who insist that markets should be allowed because of its ethical underpinnings (Kaiser, 2009; Kaiser et al., to function “free of interference‟. Yet the example of China show that 2005). Being explicit about this and addressing the ethical chal- state support can be in the long term successful, repeating for energy lenges should be the norm rather than the exception (Kaiser et al., what was the development trajectory followed by all developed coun- 2007), side-lined to the social sciences and philosophy. tries in manufacturing (Reinert and Daastøl, 2004; Reinert, 2008; • The idea of precision or intensive agriculture can be seen as an Reinert et al., 2016). example of linearization of the complexities of the top-soil system. Even here PNS’ appeal to prudent technology and bioeconomics’ 8. The lenses together careful accounting of what is feasible come to the fore. To show where integrating the lenses leads, an overview (Table 2) While reasons of space prevent us from reproducing this ‘all lenses’ describes the role and expected contribution of each lens to the en- approach to all narratives discussed here, we hope that the gist of the hancement of key attributes of integrated assessments: saliency, le- school has been given. gitimacy and credibility. Table 2 Role of each of the lenses in enhancing integrated assess- ments. The focus is on main attributes according to EEA’s perspective: 9. Conclusions salience, legitimacy and credibility (Eckley et al., 2001) Additionally, to show an example of all lenses in action, we go back The ideas that something is lacking in existing stories about sus- to the example of food security discussed in the third lens. In this test tainability and transitions is a common topos. To make just two ex- case (Saltelli and Lo Piano, 2017) we used sensitivity auditing to reach amples among many, for Sheila (Jasanoff (2018)) existing transition the conclusions that the numbers produced in the context of a research discourses gloss over the uncertain relationships between prosperity on food security (Badur et al., 2016) didn’t stand, and that the overall and sustainability and do not address the elementary principle of social narrative of this style of problem solving – which one can name as justice on how the burden should be shared. For Jeremy (Lent (2017)) techno-optimist, replaced a political problem – global inequality, with a our collective action to enact transitions to a more sustainable future is technical problem – the mix of agricultural goods produced. We now hampered by the lingering of unhelpful metaphors, mainly that of ‘man revisit the same case using all lenses. as master and possessor of nature’, and about ‘nature as a machine’; thus, if nature is a machine, I can fix it by geoengineering its climate, • The global system of trade bears a fundamental responsibility for manipulating the genes of its species, and solve with science and diet quality in several areas of the world, a phenomenon that has technology the problems which science and technology have created. been recently named caloric unequal exchange (Falconí et al., We continue in this tradition of critique, with a somewhat more 2017), with the global south subsidizing the diet of the global north. specific question: Our economic non-Ricardian lens suggests that poor countries are kept poor by the interdiction to develop a manufacturing sector. For • To what extent does the method, or the discipline, influence this lens even the same millennium development goals are proble- the prescription of the analysis? As stated in the title, the tech- matic, as they represent an attempt to cure the symptoms – i.e. nique is never neutral. Our present is populated with several stories poverty, rather than its cause, for which international institutions – some of which touched in this article, whose existence is permitted such as the Word Bank and the International Monetary Fund bear by the chosen methodological and disciplinary configuration. important responsibilities. A critique of the millennium develop- Challenging this configuration, e.g. replacing neoclassic economics ment goals – as done in (Reinert, 2008), implies a rather dramatic with bioeconomics and non-Ricardian economics; a neo-positivistic change of economic zeitgeist which we as author hesitate to predict: vision of the role of science and technology with a post normal one; are we close to a moment similar to 1848, i.e. a turn away from audacious quantifications with responsible ones; and looking at the abstract economic theories toward more relevant ones (Reinert, present with its conflicts as the place where different values are 2009)? History will tell. The level of resistance associated to this plausible and legitimate, may result in novel insights and narratives. type of ideological transition calls for the expertise of our con- We have zoomed in on a set of approaches or tools which we call troversy lens. lenses, with the idea that - applying these together, a richer picture • The assumption that what works in developed countries, in terms will emerge and thus enlarge the space of the possible solutions. e.g. of educational policies for a transition to a different diet (Saltelli Wearing those lenses both implies and produces important and Lo Piano, 2017), will also work in developing countries re- changes of perspective. sembles the already discussed case of implanting common law in Iraq. Here the ethical lens would warn us that something is seriously If progress cannot be achieved by developing nations in a regime of wrong. perfect trade, then what has to be changed is our global governance. If • Some of the numbers seen in food security do not resist decon- the linearized idea of nature underpinning many existing risk and cost struction (Saltelli and Lo Piano, 2017), as shown by the sensitivity benefit analyses is replaced by the concept of nature as a system of auditing analysis. systems, as suggested by relational biology (Louie, 2010) and bioeco- • The role of genetically modified technology to achieve a new regime nomics, then many existing ‘proofs’ of feasibility of new technologies of food production can be seen as an imprudent use of technology, need to be reconsidered. Looking through the existing frames and me- while the framing of the GMO debate in terms of alimentary safety taphors in search of forgotten or ignored knowledges may open the has been exposed as incomplete, forgetful of the political debate in space to other possible solutions, and unmask the improper translation society on the desirability of the new technologies and on the con- of a political problem into a technical one (Ravetz, 1971). Insisting on figuration of power the technology promotes (Marris, 2001). Bioe- notions of ‘consensus’ in science for policy may imply a mis- conomics and Post normal science offer some clarity here. For ex- representation or a banalization of the opinion of dissenters, which may ample, a simple fact checking on biophysical quantities (e.g. yields lead to further radicalization, while at the same time neglecting power per hectare) shows that the promise of higher yields associated with games and relationships when high interests are at stake. Ignoring the adoption of GMO crops is simply not true (Russel and Hakin, ethical and cultural specificities of different publics in the global arena 2016). It is indicative that popular resistance to GM food has fo- may lead to blunders similar to the US attempt to transplant the US cused more on the ethical issues than on the risk issues (Gaskell judiciary system into Iraq after the end of hostilities (Banks, 2010), and et al., 2004; Tait, 2001). The Precautionary Principle has appeal so on. 96 A. Saltelli, et al. Environmental Science and Policy 106 (2020) 87–98 • How to tackle uncertainties and ensure quality in integrated Benessia, A., et al., 2016. Science on the Verge. Arizona State University. Bremer, S., Haugen, A.S., Kaiser, M., 2013. Whose sustainability counts? Engaging with assessment for sustainability? We suggest that the lenses provide debates on the sustainability of Bangladeshi shrimp. In: Röcklin, H. (Ed.), The Ethics a convincing intellectual framework for this purpose. One might of Consumption: The Citizen, the Market and the Law. Wageningen Academic look at a specific sustainability or transition policy wearing the Publishers, Wageningen. lenses and running through a checklist as: Cullen, J., 2017. Circular economy: theoretical benchmark of perpetual motion machine? J. Ind. Ecol. 21 (June no. 3), 483–486. Eckley, N., Stanners, D., Gee, D., 2001. Designing Effective Assessments: the Role of Is the framing of the problem incomplete? Does the framing include Participation, Science and Governance, and Focus, Environmental Issue Report n. 26.. its political (as opposed to technical) dimensions, or was the technique, EEA, 2017. Climate Change, Impacts and Vulnerability in Europe 2016 – an Indicator- based Report, Report No 1/2017. and its numbers, used to obfuscate and distract? (All lenses) Eswaran, V., 2019. The case against techno-pessimism. Politico.eu. 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