MONOGRAPH Mètode Science Studies Journal, 10 (2020): 33-39. University of Valencia. DOI: 10.7203/metode.10.12546 ISSN: 2174-3487. eISSN: 2174-9221. Submitted: 01/06/2018. Approved: 15/10/2018. AGRICULTURE OF THE FUTURE Science and technology for sustainable agricultural development Pere Arús Guaranteeing access to food for a growing human population – based on sustainability criteria and in the face of the climate change threat – is the main challenge for twenty-first-century agriculture. The solutions are inevitably complex, require a variety of coordinated measures, and essentially, are dependent on the progress of science and the development of technologies to make more efficient use of available resources to increase crop yields and food quality to feed the world. Technologies such as genomics, computing, robotics, and nanotechnology, along with their correct application – which will require highly qualified users – will also be crucial elements to reach these objectives. Keywords: agriculture, food security, sustainability, climate change. ■ INTRODUCTION properties essential to maintain a growing sedentary Around 12,000 years ago, a project was born in population, and at the same time, allowed the harvest the Middle Eastern Fertile Crescent that would surplus to be stored and exchanged in trade. Some of completely change humanity. Some groups of hunter- these plants were cereals and legumes which served gatherers began their first experiments with a new as the population’s primary source of carbohydrates technology, agriculture, which would lead them to and proteins, and these were complemented by abandon their nomadic lifestyle and make much more several animals which completed and enriched the efficient use of the solar energy that plants capture human diet while providing the energy necessary to grow and reproduce. Agriculture slowly gained for agricultural activity: ploughing, moving water, ground – it took over 5,000 years transporting produce, grinding until it dominated the activity of grain, etc. (Diamond, 1997). human populations in Europe – «One of the main current Agriculture incorporated other but it did so decisively, because more questionable ingredients its introduction increased the agricultural challenges into the human lifestyle, such demographic, organisational, is to ensure global food as the crowding of people and military, and technological animals in often unhealthy capacity of those who practised security now that the human conditions or the increasing it (Morris, 2014). The most population is expected to degradation of the environment. obvious consequence is that At the beginning of the it became the essential reason reach 9,000 million within Industrial Revolution and with why the world’s population went thirty years» a better understanding of nature from less than six million people which allowed for major scientific 12 millennia ago to over 7,600 discoveries, agricultural activity million today. underwent enormous technological changes. The Later, agriculture arose independently in other use of fossil fuels meant that animal force, including regions of the world, but it always started with the human strength, was progressively replaced by self- domestication of some animals and plants among the propelled machinery, which drastically reduced the small number of potentially domesticable species. number of people needed to feed the population and These were different in each region, had the nutritious provided the necessary labour to the nascent industry MÈTODE 33 MONOGRAPH The challenges of science populating the cities. In 2008, there were already more may increase, it does not seem likely that people in urban environments than in rural areas, and it will happen significantly so in the future, this upward trend is expected to reach 66 % by 2050, as can be inferred from the fact that it has up from 34 % in 1960. only grown by 3 % in the last twenty years (Foley et al., 2011). The cost of adding new land may be too high in environmental and ■ CHALLENGES FOR AGRICULTURE economic terms to yield a useful return, The first of what I consider to be the three main and the use of new arable land is partly current agricultural challenges is to ensure global offset by urban growth – often on the best food security now that the human population is cultivable land – or by the growth of non- expected to reach 9,000 million within thirty years. food crops to produce bioenergy: only 62 % Today, agriculture provides enough food to feed all of agricultural production is for human of humanity – the causes behind the malnutrition of consumption: 35 % is for domestic animals around a billion people are to be found elsewhere and 3 % for biofuel production (Foley et al., – but by 2050, agriculture would need to produce 2011). between 60 % and 110 % more than in 2006 (Food and The quality of water and soil and the Agriculture Organization [FAO], 2016; Ray, Mueller, preservation of biodiversity are among the West, & Foley, 2013) to feed everyone. This means essential elements for the sustainability that, at least for the crops upon which we base our of the agricultural environment. The calorie and protein supply (maize, rice, wheat, and importance of these elements has begun USDA / Preston Keres soybeans are the most representative), production to be valued only recently, with the would have to increase by around 2.4 % per year. This acceptance of evidence that the world objective is implausible, considering that average is finite and the need to use and recycle growth has been much lower (0.9 %–1.6 %) in the last available resources according to quality twenty years (Ray et al., 2013). maintenance criteria. Water is essential for plant In addition, the quality of human food must be growth, yet its distribution on the planet is irregular, improved, not only by providing enough calories, with areas where it is optimally available for but also by ensuring a varied and balanced diet, the agriculture or, much more frequently, others where availability of which is not guaranteed either. Another factor that aggravates the problem is the growing demand for meat products, driven by the increased spending power of part of the world’s population. This represents an additional drop in the efficiency of food production because meat production is much more inefficient than grain production – for instance, one kilogram of beef requires about 30 kg of grain, and one gram of beef protein requires 112 litres of water, while one gram of cereal protein requires only 21 litres (Foley, 2011; Mekonnen & Hoekstra, 2012). USDA / Preston Keres The second challenge is that agricultural production must be based on sustainability criteria. The cultivated agricultural area is currently 38 % of the Earth’s total One third of agricultural production is destined to feed livestock land area (excluding Greenland and Antarctica). This and pets. The growing demand for meat products requires an increase in agricultural production. One gram of beef protein fact shows the impact agriculture has had on the requires about 112 litres of water, while only 21 litres are required environment, one which is greater than that of any for a gram of cereal protein, which makes producing meat much other human activity. Although the cultivated area more inefficient than producing grain. 34 MÈTODE MONOGRAPH The challenges of science there is too much or too little water. Water is often what determines whether agriculture can be practised or not, as well as which type of agriculture is appropriate. More than 70 % of available fresh water is used to irrigate crops, and while it is recycled, misuse can lead to major problems. One such problem is water pollution, which, apart from ruining the land and aquifers and contaminating vital areas such as river mouths, can reach the sea and drastically reduce biodiversity and make it difficult or impossible to practice another important food-generating activity: fishing. Some of the pollutants in water and soil are the same products we use to improve crop yields: phytosanitary products (insecticides, fungicides, herbicides, and antibiotics) as well as mineral and organic fertilisers. The former control pests, diseases, and weeds, which cause serious losses in agricultural production, but many of them are toxic to other plant and animal species and so put agricultural biodiversity at risk. In addition, Agriculture started with the domestication of some animals and other ecosystems are also at risk when these plants such as cereals and legumes, which had the nutritious pollutants move via water, soil, or air. Fertilisers properties essential to maintain a growing sedentary population provide plants with easy access to the elements and allowed us to store and exchange the harvest surplus for they need from the soil (nitrogen, potassium, and trade. phosphorus are the most important) and create a suitable physical environment for root development, «Only 62 % of agricultural production is for leading to vigorous growth and a high yield. However, it is currently estimated that about half of inorganic human consumption, 35 % is for domestic fertilisers are not used by the target plants and are animals, and 3 % for biofuel production» either retained in the soil or transferred to other ecosystems (Foley, 2011). Biodiversity is another crucial element for the existence and preservation of life. It is also essential for the development of agriculture itself: conventional strategies for creating improved varieties depend primarily on the natural variation of the genes of the cultivated species or of closely related ones, and on the potential variation generated by artificial mutagenesis – very little so far – as well as on the creation of new gene combinations through hybridisation and recombination. The design of more productive cultivation methods also depends on the diversity of each soil’s flora and fauna, on the relationships with the insects, fungi, and bacteria interacting with crops, with their predators and symbionts, etc. The destruction of biodiversity on Earth would be an impediment not only to the progress of agriculture; it would also lead USDA / Preston Keres to imbalances that could make the lives of many of the organisms inhabiting the planet (including us) unviable. At the very least it would contribute to the loss of some MÈTODE 35 MONOGRAPH The challenges of science ecosystems and scenic beauty that would make the world a much less interesting place in which to live. The third crucial challenge is climate change, brought about by recent alterations in the composition of the atmosphere. The increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, among other gases, is responsible for the greenhouse effect which is resulting in an increase in air temperature. The use of fossil fuels is one of the main causes for the generation of these gases, as demonstrated by the fact that the energy sector is the main emitter (47 %), followed by transport (11 %). However, agriculture and forestry directly generate an important part (21 %) of these gasses, which could reach 30 % if we consider all the elements involved (food industry and transport, among others; FAO, 2016). Agriculture produces these gases mainly as a result of deforestation, animal production, and soil and nutrient management, particularly animal-based organic fertilisers. The effects of climate change are already being felt around the world, especially in tropical areas such as Southeast Asia and sub- Saharan Africa, where extreme climatic events such as long droughts and floods have led to growing instability in the availability of food for populations that are already particularly afflicted by hunger and malnutrition. Global agricultural production is projected to continue until 2030, but it will decline dramatically in the following decades, to a lesser or greater extent, based on models with varying degrees USDA / Preston Keres of optimism about our ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate or adapt to their effects. In any case, not exceeding an average global temperature increase of 1.5 °C is considered to be a good objective that would avoid Biodiversity is a crucial element for the existence and preservation of life and for the development of agriculture. The major problems for humanity, but this cannot be done design of more productive farming depends on the diversity of without substantial changes in the sectors causing the flora and fauna and, therefore, also on the relationship between problem, including agriculture (FAO, 2016). insects, fungi, and bacteria. ■ THE ROLE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY «The destruction of biodiversity on Earth Can agriculture respond to these challenges? Or is would be an impediment not only to the the world heading towards a growing food deficit that could potentially lead to a period of hunger, progress of agriculture, it could also migration, and increasing ungovernability? There make the lives of many of the organisms is no clear answer, although this same question has been asked in the past, and fortunately, we have found inhabiting the planet (including us) answers, many of them unforeseen and all related to unviable» 36 MÈTODE MONOGRAPH The challenges of science new discoveries continue to generate more questions than answers. A substantial part of this new knowledge has and will come from the interaction between biology and other new or old scientific areas, making multidisciplinary approaches to research increasingly necessary. Scientific advances lead to the technological innovations which will change agriculture in the coming years. Some of these technologies are described below. Genomics We have now sequenced the entire genome of many species, but we are only able to interpret a tiny part of the genetic message contained therein. The DNA sequence is the functioning basis of living organisms and the raw material for their diversity, so scientific work will continue to focus on studying this material in the coming decades. Advances in this field have made it possible to develop DNA modification technologies, which began with the first genetically modified plants almost four decades ago. Genetically modified crops occupy almost 190 million hectares (International Service for the Acquisition of Agribiotech Applications, 2017), 12 % of the total agricultural surface, USDA / Preston Keres but they have generated social rejection in some parts of the world, notably in Europe. Powerful new gene editing tools are likely to replace genetically modified crops because The effects of climate change, such as long droughts or floods, they allow targeted mutagenesis in which have already started to be felt in many regions with extreme genes can be accurately modified, resulting in plants climate events. The picture shows the effects of the 2013 drought or animals containing no genes other than their own. in a corn field in Texas (USA). The debate about these technologies has a strong ideological component, but the current scientific the progress of science and technology. This was the evidence indicates that they do not present clear risks case of Malthus’s apocalyptic predictions about the to human health or the environment. It would be future of the human population in the late eighteenth desirable for the current doubts about their use to fade century. These predictions did not come true thanks away, because we cannot afford to discard potentially to the progress of agronomy and several aspects effective technologies when we need all the tools at of crop genetics, such as the use of fertilisers and our disposal to overcome our challenges. pesticides and genetic improvement based on an Cheap, high-efficiency sequencing makes it understanding of the basic laws of heredity, which possible to characterise a new and previously ignored enabled the green revolution. environmental variable: the microbiome of soil, Scientific knowledge continues to exponentially water, air, rumen, etc., with consequences that will grow and recent decades have seen an explosion of lead to a greater understanding and control of the results and paradigm shifts in many fields. It seems environment in which plants and animals live, as that the twenty-first century will continue in the same well as its relationship with genotypes. New aspects, vein and, although our understanding of plant and such as the role of non-coding sequences in the animal biology – the basis of agriculture – is greater, genome, including transposons, or the importance MÈTODE 37 MONOGRAPH The challenges of science of epigenetics as a factor in inheritance, open up additional questions to be resolved which may break or modify current paradigms, all with applied consequences. Finally, high-throughput phenotyping, which uses state-of-the-art computing and robotics, will make it possible to establish a finer resolution of the phenotype- genotype relationship and enable an early DNA- based phenotype prediction. Computer science The search, storage, visualisation, and integration of very different kinds of data (big data) related to agricultural activity and its accessibility for Pepa Granados cultivated plots opens up enormous possibilities for much more efficient crop management, based on understanding the needs of each plant, in so- called «precision agriculture». The result involves a more careful use of essential inputs (varieties, water, fertilisers, means of sanitary control, etc.) and at the same time, ensures higher production. In addition, the design, testing, and refinement of predictive models for the evolution of crops or phenotypes based on genotypic and environmental data will result in new computer tools to aid decision-making, some of which are already starting to be useful for farmers and breeders. Robotics USDA / Neil Palmer The mechanisation of agriculture will continue with the development and construction of machinery for precision farming, food processing, measurement of the essential components of environmental Scientific advances in fields such as genomics will produce heterogeneity, or of basic and processed foods, with changes in agriculture in the next few years. The debate on new gene-editing tools has a strong ideological component, but the the aim of correcting possible deficiencies, improving current scientific evidence indicates that they do not present clear food hygiene, and increasing the yield, quality, and risks to human health or the environment. health of food production and storage (King, 2017). The above-mentioned high-throughput phenotyping heavily relies on the automation of basic operations «We cannot afford to discard potentially and the integration of other elements, such as advances in digital imaging and the use of drones to effective technologies when we need all capture detailed images at the right times. the tools at our disposal to overcome our Nanotechnology challenges» There are several potentially-useful agricultural applications of this technology (Fraceto et al., 2016). Among others, the formulation of pesticides based on nanomaterials for the control of pests and diseases; the use of nanoparticles to slowly dose nutrients and water to plants; the improvement of soil quality; the development of biosensors to measure the hydric or nutritional state of plants (as required in precision agriculture); the transfer of genes or DNA via 38 MÈTODE MONOGRAPH The challenges of science higher efficiency animal protein sources, or with synthetic proteins; reducing food waste, be it at the farm, in the supermarket, or in consumer’s homes. Consumers should also have access to objective, standardised information on whether the food they buy has been produced according to specific sustainability criteria, avoiding vague labels such as «organically farmed» or «locally produced». This will undoubtedly require strengthening and focusing research on appropriate scientific areas, considering that the resulting technology will require highly educated users. Given that one of the critical aspects is the increase in productivity in developing countries, solutions will have to be implemented respecting the social structure of these communities, and so, training farmers will be crucial. The latter is a truly difficult challenge, which will require significant investments and policies tailored case-by-case. Whether we can maintain a large human population and overcome the scourges of hunger and malnutrition will ultimately depend on these efforts. REFERENCES Diamond, J. (1997). Guns, germs and steel: The fates of human societies. New York: Norton. Foley, J. A. (2011). Can we feed the world and sustain the planet? UPV Scientific American, 305(5), 60–65. Computing and robotics open new possibilities for efficient crop Foley, J. A., Ramankutty, N., Brauman, K. A., Cassidy, E. S., Gerber, J. management. The picture shows a robot developed by the Polytechnic S., Johnston, M., ... Zaks, D. P. M. (2011). Solutions for a cultivated planet. 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Retrieved from http://www.isaaa.org/resources/publications/ briefs/53/download/isaaa-brief-53-2017.pdf There are no simple formulas when it comes to tackling King, A. (2017). Technology: The future of agriculture. Nature, 544, 21–23. the immediate challenges of agriculture. The actions doi: 10.1038/544S21a that need to be undertaken are all complex and require Mekonnen, M. M., & Hoekstra, A. Y. (2012). A global assessment of the water footprint of farm animal products. Ecosystems, 15(3), 401–405. doi: coordinated implementation in areas such as politics, 10.1007/S10021-011-9517-8 sociology, economics, technology, education, etc. Morris, I. (2014). Why the West rules... for now? New York: Farrar Strauss & Among others, these actions should involve increasing Giroux. Ray, D. K., Mueller, N. D., West, P. C., & Foley, J. A. (2013). Yield trends are agricultural productivity, considering that there is a lot insufficient to double global crop production by 2050. PLOS ONE, 8(6), of room for improvement in raising the crop yields in e66428. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0066428 areas of the world with the lowest production to meet those where production is highest, as well as improving PERE ARÚS. Researcher at the Institute of Agrifood Research and crop yields in regions where they are already high. It Technology (IRTA, Spain). He is an agricultural engineer from the University of Valencia and has a PhD in Genetics from the University of California, is also important to stop the expansion of agriculture, Davis. Arús is an expert in population genetics, crop evolution, and genetic especially where it destroys rainforests and savannahs; improvement, where he has specialised in the use of molecular markers and to produce more with less, i.e., to maximize the other genomic tools to improve fruit trees and vegetables, and is the author of more than 200 scientific papers. He was the Scientific Director of IRTA and yield per unit of water, fertiliser, and energy spent; the Deputy Director of the Centre for Research in Agricultural Genomics switching to diets containing less animal protein, (CRAG).  pere.arus@irta.cat MÈTODE 39