02cc9c430dd8887313370c56c1c80cf7 Sym_a2020v12n10p1646.pdf c5d8df0fe7f9160d14211f51ffb2b5a660ffa7d3 Sym_a2020v12n10p1646.pdf f412a4e1a21757a76f85ca1e1c22431f4c691d9e5af8517752fa92cfb4ab5f52 Sym_a2020v12n10p1646.pdf Title: On Confinement and Quarantine Concerns on an SEIAR Epidemic Model with Simulated Parameterizations for the COVID-19 Pandemic Subject: This paper firstly studies an SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) epidemic model without demography and with no disease mortality under both total and under partial quarantine of the susceptible subpopulation or of both the susceptible and the infectious ones in order to satisfy the hospital availability requirements on bed disposal and other necessary treatment means for the seriously infectious subpopulations. The seriously infectious individuals are assumed to be a part of the total infectious being described by a time-varying proportional function. A time-varying upper-bound of those seriously infected individuals has to be satisfied as objective by either a total confinement or partial quarantine intervention of the susceptible subpopulation. Afterwards, a new extended SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) epidemic model, which is referred to as an SEIAR (susceptible-exposed-symptomatic infectious-asymptomatic infectious-recovered) epidemic model with demography and disease mortality is given and focused on so as to extend the above developed ideas on the SIR model. A proportionally gain in the model parameterization is assumed to distribute the transition from the exposed to the infectious into the two infectious individuals (namely, symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals). Such a model is evaluated under total or partial quarantines of all or of some of the subpopulations which have the effect of decreasing the number of contagions. Simulated numerical examples are also discussed related to model parameterizations of usefulness related to the current COVID-19 pandemic outbreaks. Keywords: SEIAR epidemic model; confinement intervention; quarantine intervention; COVID-19; mathematical modelling; numerical modelling Author: Manuel De la Sen, Asier Ibeas and Ravi P. Agarwal Creator: LaTeX with hyperref package Producer: pdfTeX-1.40.18 CreationDate: Thu Oct 22 05:19:21 2020 CEST ModDate: Thu Oct 22 05:31:33 2020 CEST Tagged: no UserProperties: no Suspects: no Form: none JavaScript: no Pages: 33 Encrypted: no Page size: 595.276 x 841.89 pts (A4) Page rot: 0 File size: 4165994 bytes Optimized: no PDF version: 1.7 name type encoding emb sub uni object ID ------------------------------------ ----------------- ---------------- --- --- --- --------- BMWNIW+VnURWPalladioL Type 1 Custom yes yes no 10 0 ROVHEE+URWPalladioL-Ital Type 1 Custom yes yes no 15 0 DZJTRG+URWPalladioL-Bold Type 1 Custom yes yes no 20 0 AUAFJL+URWPalladioL-Roma Type 1 Custom yes yes no 24 0 GGHKHM+Rpxr Type 1 Builtin yes yes no 28 0 GXBWHU+TimesNewRomanPS-BoldMT Type 1C WinAnsi yes yes no 36 0 CSRIGL+TimesNewRomanPS-BoldItalicMT Type 1C WinAnsi yes yes no 39 0 MCBCCI+SourceSansRoman-Regular Type 1C Custom yes yes no 61 0 MCBCCM+SourceSansRoman.613wght Type 1C Custom yes yes no 65 0 MCBCCO+SourceSansRoman-Bold Type 1C Custom yes yes no 69 0 LELTJE+Rpxmi Type 1 Builtin yes yes no 76 0 AUAFJL+URWPalladioL-Roma Type 1 Custom yes yes no 80 0 SOSTRQ+CMR10 Type 1 Builtin yes yes no 82 0 ZZFUXD+PazoMath Type 1 Builtin yes yes no 92 0 MBXBYR+URWPalladioL-BoldItal Type 1 Custom yes yes no 96 0 FWCQKY+Pxsy Type 1 Builtin yes yes no 100 0 BOVEPX+Pxex Type 1 Builtin yes yes no 104 0 LRJZIU+Pxsya Type 1 Builtin yes yes no 108 0 WTSICF+Rpxi Type 1 Builtin yes yes no 133 0 VSHNAE+Rpcxr Type 1 Builtin yes yes no 248 0 Jhove (Rel. 1.22.1, 2019-04-17) Date: 2022-01-18 02:33:29 CET RepresentationInformation: Sym_a2020v12n10p1646.pdf ReportingModule: PDF-hul, Rel. 1.12.1 (2019-04-17) LastModified: 2022-01-17 20:30:59 CET Size: 4165994 Format: PDF Version: 1.7 Status: Well-Formed and valid SignatureMatches: PDF-hul MIMEtype: application/pdf PDFMetadata: Objects: 460 FreeObjects: 1 IncrementalUpdates: 0 DocumentCatalog: PageLayout: SinglePage PageMode: UseNone Outlines: Item: Title: Introduction Destination: edu.harvard.hul.ois.jhove.module.pdf.PdfSimpleObject@7b69c6ba Item: Title: A Quarantined SIR Epidemic Model Destination: edu.harvard.hul.ois.jhove.module.pdf.PdfSimpleObject@46daef40 Children: Item: Title: Example 1 (An SIR Epidemic Model without Demography Subject to Monitored Quarantine) Destination: edu.harvard.hul.ois.jhove.module.pdf.PdfSimpleObject@12f41634 Item: Title: Example 2 (A Partial Quarantine on the Susceptible Followed by a Later Partial Quarantine on the Infectious) Destination: edu.harvard.hul.ois.jhove.module.pdf.PdfSimpleObject@13c27452 Item: Title: Hospital Management Objective of Example 2 on a Temporary Time Interval Destination: edu.harvard.hul.ois.jhove.module.pdf.PdfSimpleObject@262b2c86 Item: Title: Algorithm 1 Destination: edu.harvard.hul.ois.jhove.module.pdf.PdfSimpleObject@371a67ec Item: Title: An SEIAR Epidemic Model Subject to Confinement or to Partial Quarantines Destination: edu.harvard.hul.ois.jhove.module.pdf.PdfSimpleObject@5ed828d Children: Item: Title: The Model Destination: edu.harvard.hul.ois.jhove.module.pdf.PdfSimpleObject@50d0686 Item: Title: Hospital Management Objective on a Temporary Time Interval Destination: edu.harvard.hul.ois.jhove.module.pdf.PdfSimpleObject@7a3d45bd Item: Title: Total Confinement or Partial Quarantines to Achieve the Hospital Availability Objective Destination: edu.harvard.hul.ois.jhove.module.pdf.PdfSimpleObject@1e7c7811 Item: Title: Numerical Simulations Destination: edu.harvard.hul.ois.jhove.module.pdf.PdfSimpleObject@77ec78b9 Item: Title: Conclusions Destination: edu.harvard.hul.ois.jhove.module.pdf.PdfSimpleObject@1a3869f4 Item: Title: Evolution Equations for Quarantines In-between to Consecutive Time Instants and Their Counterparts for Accumulated Quarantines Destination: edu.harvard.hul.ois.jhove.module.pdf.PdfSimpleObject@a38d7a3 Item: Title: Discussion of the Quarantined Choices According to (61) (66) Destination: edu.harvard.hul.ois.jhove.module.pdf.PdfSimpleObject@77f99a05 Item: Title: References Destination: edu.harvard.hul.ois.jhove.module.pdf.PdfSimpleObject@63440df3 Info: Title: On Confinement and Quarantine Concerns on an SEIAR Epidemic Model with Simulated Parameterizations for the COVID-19 Pandemic Author: Manuel De la Sen, Asier Ibeas and Ravi P. Agarwal Subject: This paper firstly studies an SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) epidemic model without demography and with no disease mortality under both total and under partial quarantine of the susceptible subpopulation or of both the susceptible and the infectious ones in order to satisfy the hospital availability requirements on bed disposal and other necessary treatment means for the seriously infectious subpopulations. The seriously infectious individuals are assumed to be a part of the total infectious being described by a time-varying proportional function. A time-varying upper-bound of those seriously infected individuals has to be satisfied as objective by either a total confinement or partial quarantine intervention of the susceptible subpopulation. Afterwards, a new extended SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) epidemic model, which is referred to as an SEIAR (susceptible-exposed-symptomatic infectious-asymptomatic infectious-recovered) epidemic model with demography and disease mortality is given and focused on so as to extend the above developed ideas on the SIR model. A proportionally gain in the model parameterization is assumed to distribute the transition from the exposed to the infectious into the two infectious individuals (namely, symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals). Such a model is evaluated under total or partial quarantines of all or of some of the subpopulations which have the effect of decreasing the number of contagions. Simulated numerical examples are also discussed related to model parameterizations of usefulness related to the current COVID-19 pandemic outbreaks. 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