32313b30997b39174c394714fd06a1b4 sustainability-13-01967-v2.pdf c08693d72c525531eee9fce96f2862190eec0124 sustainability-13-01967-v2.pdf 25aa50b747c9d69e8b65db5e930836481ddc32de8b10d7bc64bc05c966267b88 sustainability-13-01967-v2.pdf Title: Cross-Validation of the MEDEAS Energy-Economy-Environment Model with the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) and the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) Subject: In the present study, we compare energy transition scenarios from a new set of integrated assessment models, the suite of MEDEAS models, based on a systems dynamic modeling approach, with scenarios from two already well know structurally and conceptually different integrated assessment models, the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) and the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP). The investigation was carried out to cross-compare and benchmark the response of MEDEAS models with TIMES and LEAP in depicting the energy transition in two different countries, Austria and Bulgaria. The preliminary results show a good agreement across all the models in representing scenarios projecting historical trends, while a major discrepancy is detectable when the rate of implementation of renewable energy is forced to increase to achieve energy system decarbonization. The discrepancy is mainly traceable to the differences in the models’ conception and structures rather than in a real mismatch in representing the same scenarios. The present study is put forward as a guideline for validating new modeling approaches that link energy policy decision tools to the global biophysical and socioeconomic constraints. Keywords: energy model; system dynamics; energy transition; decarbonization pathways; benchmarking Author: Ilaria Perissi, Gianluca Martelloni, Ugo Bardi, Davide Natalini, Aled Jones, Angel Nikolaev, Lukas Eggler, Martin Baumann, Roger Samsó and Jordi Solé Creator: LaTeX with hyperref Producer: pdfTeX-1.40.21 CreationDate: Mon Feb 22 11:19:20 2021 CET ModDate: Tue Feb 23 08:54:35 2021 CET Custom Metadata: no Metadata Stream: no Tagged: no UserProperties: no Suspects: no Form: none JavaScript: no Pages: 25 Encrypted: no Page size: 595.276 x 841.89 pts (A4) Page rot: 0 File size: 3192468 bytes Optimized: no PDF version: 1.7 name type encoding emb sub uni object ID ------------------------------------ ----------------- ---------------- --- --- --- --------- YLXLLT+VnURWPalladioL Type 1 Custom yes yes no 10 0 EMBQYE+URWPalladioL-Ital Type 1 Custom yes yes no 15 0 GTDKHN+URWPalladioL-Bold Type 1 Custom yes yes no 20 0 WMWXKV+URWPalladioL-Roma Type 1 Custom yes yes no 24 0 HJOMHV+VnURWPalladioL-Bold Type 1 Custom yes yes no 28 0 IZBVAO+TimesNewRomanPS-BoldItalicMT Type 1C WinAnsi yes yes no 36 0 MCBCCI+SourceSansRoman-Regular Type 1C Custom yes yes no 58 0 MCBCCM+SourceSansRoman.613wght Type 1C Custom yes yes no 62 0 MCBCCO+SourceSansRoman-Bold Type 1C Custom yes yes no 66 0 BCDEEE+PalatinoLinotype-Bold TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 83 0 BCDFEE+PalatinoLinotype-Roman TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 87 0 BCDGEE+PalatinoLinotype-Italic TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 91 0 BCDHEE+PalatinoLinotype-Roman CID TrueType Identity-H yes yes yes 95 0 BTGTUA+CMEX10 Type 1 Builtin yes yes no 109 0 IYGTZP+CMSY10 Type 1 Builtin yes yes no 113 0 QQXUPP+PazoMath Type 1 Builtin yes yes no 117 0 GIGFZE+CMR10 Type 1 Builtin yes yes no 121 0 BCDEEE+PalatinoLinotype-Bold TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 142 0 BCDFEE+PalatinoLinotype-Roman TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 146 0 BCDGEE+PalatinoLinotype-Italic TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 150 0 BCDHEE+PalatinoLinotype-Roman CID TrueType Identity-H yes yes yes 154 0 BCDEEE+PalatinoLinotype-Bold TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 186 0 BCDFEE+PalatinoLinotype-Roman TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 190 0 BCDGEE+PalatinoLinotype-Italic TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 194 0 BCDHEE+PalatinoLinotype-Roman CID TrueType Identity-H yes yes yes 198 0 BCDEEE+PalatinoLinotype-Bold TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 214 0 BCDFEE+PalatinoLinotype-Roman TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 218 0 BCDGEE+PalatinoLinotype-Italic TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 222 0 BCDHEE+PalatinoLinotype-Roman CID TrueType Identity-H yes yes yes 226 0 BCDEEE+PalatinoLinotype-Bold TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 242 0 BCDFEE+PalatinoLinotype-Roman TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 246 0 BCDGEE+PalatinoLinotype-Italic TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 250 0 BCDHEE+PalatinoLinotype-Roman CID TrueType Identity-H yes yes yes 254 0 BCDEEE+PalatinoLinotype-Bold TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 266 0 BCDFEE+PalatinoLinotype-Roman TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 270 0 BCDGEE+PalatinoLinotype-Italic TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 274 0 BCDHEE+PalatinoLinotype-Roman CID TrueType Identity-H yes yes yes 278 0 FUINDB+SFTT1000 Type 1 Custom yes yes no 299 0 BCDEEE+PalatinoLinotype-Bold TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 308 0 BCDFEE+PalatinoLinotype-Roman TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 312 0 BCDGEE+PalatinoLinotype-Italic TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 316 0 BCDHEE+PalatinoLinotype-Roman CID TrueType Identity-H yes yes yes 320 0 BCDEEE+PalatinoLinotype-Bold TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 332 0 BCDFEE+PalatinoLinotype-Roman TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 336 0 BCDGEE+PalatinoLinotype-Italic TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 340 0 BCDHEE+PalatinoLinotype-Roman CID TrueType Identity-H yes yes yes 344 0 BCDKEE+CourierNewPSMT TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 351 0 Jhove (Rel. 1.28.0, 2023-05-18) Date: 2025-02-20 02:15:35 CET RepresentationInformation: sustainability-13-01967-v2.pdf ReportingModule: PDF-hul, Rel. 1.12.4 (2023-03-16) LastModified: 2025-02-19 10:17:00 CET Size: 3192468 Format: PDF Version: 1.7 Status: Well-Formed and valid SignatureMatches: PDF-hul MIMEtype: application/pdf PDFMetadata: Objects: 519 FreeObjects: 1 IncrementalUpdates: 0 DocumentCatalog: PageLayout: SinglePage PageMode: UseNone Outlines: Item: Title: Introduction Destination: section.1 Item: Title: Materials and Methods Destination: section.2 Item: Title: Results Destination: section.3 Children: Item: Title: Results for Austria Destination: subsection.3.1 Item: Title: Results for Bulgaria Destination: subsection.3.2 Item: Title: Discussion Destination: section.4 Item: Title: Conclusions Destination: section.5 Item: Title: Evaluation of National Carbon Budget for Austria and Bulgaria Destination: section.A. Item: Title: Destination: section.B. Children: Item: Title: MATLAB CODE Austria Normalized RMSD Destination: subsection.B.1 Item: Title: MATLAB CODE Bulgaria Normalized RMSD Destination: subsection.B.2 Item: Title: References Destination: subsection.B.2 Info: Title: Cross-Validation of the MEDEAS Energy-Economy-Environment Model with the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) and the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) Author: Ilaria Perissi, Gianluca Martelloni, Ugo Bardi, Davide Natalini, Aled Jones, Angel Nikolaev, Lukas Eggler, Martin Baumann, Roger Samsó and Jordi Solé Subject: In the present study, we compare energy transition scenarios from a new set of integrated assessment models, the suite of MEDEAS models, based on a systems dynamic modeling approach, with scenarios from two already well know structurally and conceptually different integrated assessment models, the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) and the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP). The investigation was carried out to cross-compare and benchmark the response of MEDEAS models with TIMES and LEAP in depicting the energy transition in two different countries, Austria and Bulgaria. The preliminary results show a good agreement across all the models in representing scenarios projecting historical trends, while a major discrepancy is detectable when the rate of implementation of renewable energy is forced to increase to achieve energy system decarbonization. The discrepancy is mainly traceable to the differences in the models’ conception and structures rather than in a real mismatch in representing the same scenarios. The present study is put forward as a guideline for validating new modeling approaches that link energy policy decision tools to the global biophysical and socioeconomic constraints. Keywords: energy model; system dynamics; energy transition; decarbonization pathways; benchmarking Creator: LaTeX with hyperref Producer: pdfTeX-1.40.21 CreationDate: Mon Feb 22 11:19:20 CET 2021 ModDate: Tue Feb 23 08:54:35 CET 2021 ID: 0xbe9aa9dd7ae30e5a47429cefd1431cde, 0xbe9aa9dd7ae30e5a47429cefd1431cde Filters: FilterPipeline: FlateDecode Fonts: Type1: Font: BaseFont: IYGTZP+CMSY10 FontSubset: true FirstChar: 0 LastChar: 15 FontDescriptor: FontName: IYGTZP+CMSY10 Flags: Symbolic FontBBox: -29, -960, 1116, 775 FontFile: true Font: BaseFont: GTDKHN+URWPalladioL-Bold FontSubset: true FirstChar: 3 LastChar: 121 FontDescriptor: FontName: GTDKHN+URWPalladioL-Bold Flags: Symbolic FontBBox: -152, -301, 1000, 935 FontFile: true EncodingDictionary: Differences: true Font: BaseFont: QQXUPP+PazoMath FontSubset: true FirstChar: 229 LastChar: 229 FontDescriptor: FontName: QQXUPP+PazoMath Flags: Symbolic FontBBox: -40, -283, 878, 946 FontFile: true Font: BaseFont: WMWXKV+URWPalladioL-Roma FontSubset: true FirstChar: 2 LastChar: 248 FontDescriptor: FontName: WMWXKV+URWPalladioL-Roma Flags: Symbolic FontBBox: -166, -283, 1021, 943 FontFile: true EncodingDictionary: Differences: true Font: BaseFont: GIGFZE+CMR10 FontSubset: true FirstChar: 40 LastChar: 61 FontDescriptor: FontName: GIGFZE+CMR10 Flags: Symbolic FontBBox: -40, -250, 1009, 750 FontFile: true Font: BaseFont: YLXLLT+VnURWPalladioL FontSubset: true FirstChar: 129 LastChar: 226 FontDescriptor: FontName: YLXLLT+VnURWPalladioL Flags: Symbolic FontBBox: -166, -283, 1021, 943 FontFile: true EncodingDictionary: Differences: true Font: BaseFont: FUINDB+SFTT1000 FontSubset: true FirstChar: 2 LastChar: 126 FontDescriptor: FontName: FUINDB+SFTT1000 Flags: Symbolic FontBBox: -208, -360, 1374, 838 FontFile: true EncodingDictionary: Differences: true Font: BaseFont: HJOMHV+VnURWPalladioL-Bold FontSubset: true FirstChar: 178 LastChar: 226 FontDescriptor: FontName: HJOMHV+VnURWPalladioL-Bold Flags: Symbolic FontBBox: -152, -301, 1000, 935 FontFile: true EncodingDictionary: Differences: true Font: BaseFont: BTGTUA+CMEX10 FontSubset: true FirstChar: 0 LastChar: 118 FontDescriptor: FontName: BTGTUA+CMEX10 Flags: Symbolic FontBBox: -24, -2960, 1454, 772 FontFile: true Font: BaseFont: EMBQYE+URWPalladioL-Ital FontSubset: true FirstChar: 2 LastChar: 122 FontDescriptor: FontName: EMBQYE+URWPalladioL-Ital Flags: Symbolic FontBBox: -170, -305, 1010, 941 FontFile: true EncodingDictionary: Differences: true Pages: Page: Sequence: 1 Annotations: Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 35, 759, 178, 795 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 515, 759, 560, 795 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 105, 622, 116, 635 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 362, 622, 373, 635 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 432, 622, 443, 635 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 262, 609, 273, 623 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 345, 609, 356, 623 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 125, 346, 154, 355 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 35, 334, 151, 343 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 35, 162, 97, 184 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 153, 89, 154, 98 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 35, 77, 147, 86 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 513, 118, 520, 127 ActionDest: 366 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 521, 118, 528, 127 ActionDest: 366 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 292, 106, 299, 115 ActionDest: 366 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 543, 81, 550, 90 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 134, 17, 266, 28 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 387, 17, 558, 28 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 35, 482, 87, 501 Page: Sequence: 2 Annotations: Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 321, 737, 328, 746 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 392, 661, 399, 670 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 475, 636, 482, 645 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 485, 636, 492, 645 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 494, 621, 501, 633 ActionDest: 75 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 377, 573, 389, 582 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 392, 573, 404, 582 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 515, 574, 527, 582 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 463, 197, 475, 207 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 476, 197, 488, 207 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 483, 185, 495, 194 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 364, 160, 371, 169 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 372, 160, 383, 169 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 544, 122, 556, 131 ActionDest: 369 Page: Sequence: 3 Annotations: Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 237, 735, 249, 744 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 250, 735, 262, 744 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 335, 722, 347, 731 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 232, 634, 244, 643 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 544, 609, 556, 618 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 244, 471, 256, 480 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 309, 471, 321, 480 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 520, 471, 532, 480 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 239, 308, 246, 317 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 246, 308, 258, 317 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 258, 308, 270, 317 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 271, 308, 283, 317 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 283, 308, 295, 317 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 296, 308, 308, 317 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 194, 82, 206, 91 ActionDest: 369 Page: Sequence: 4 Annotations: Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 525, 735, 537, 744 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 280, 720, 289, 732 ActionDest: 292 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 544, 647, 556, 656 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 279, 622, 291, 631 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 291, 622, 303, 631 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 423, 469, 430, 481 ActionDest: 125 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 451, 469, 458, 481 ActionDest: 128 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 267, 457, 274, 468 ActionDest: 131 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 294, 457, 301, 468 ActionDest: 131 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 309, 358, 320, 367 ActionDest: 369 Page: Sequence: 5 Annotations: Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 515, 632, 523, 644 ActionDest: 295 Page: Sequence: 6 Page: Sequence: 7 Annotations: Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 241, 115, 248, 127 ActionDest: 125 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 268, 115, 275, 127 ActionDest: 128 Page: Sequence: 8 Annotations: Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 281, 657, 288, 669 ActionDest: 134 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 242, 571, 254, 580 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 204, 182, 211, 193 ActionDest: 131 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 333, 182, 340, 193 ActionDest: 131 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 442, 182, 449, 193 ActionDest: 165 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 192, 169, 199, 181 ActionDest: 165 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 377, 169, 384, 181 ActionDest: 168 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 506, 169, 513, 181 ActionDest: 168 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 219, 156, 226, 168 ActionDest: 171 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 361, 156, 373, 168 ActionDest: 171 Page: Sequence: 9 Page: Sequence: 10 Page: Sequence: 11 Page: Sequence: 12 Annotations: Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 503, 506, 510, 518 ActionDest: 131 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 529, 506, 536, 518 ActionDest: 131 Page: Sequence: 13 Annotations: Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 539, 694, 546, 706 ActionDest: 165 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 246, 669, 253, 681 ActionDest: 178 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 309, 193, 316, 205 ActionDest: 165 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 351, 193, 358, 205 ActionDest: 206 Page: Sequence: 14 Annotations: Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 304, 396, 311, 408 ActionDest: 168 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 387, 396, 394, 408 ActionDest: 168 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 455, 170, 462, 182 ActionDest: 171 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 483, 170, 495, 182 ActionDest: 171 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 508, 157, 515, 169 ActionDest: 234 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 200, 145, 207, 157 ActionDest: 234 Page: Sequence: 15 Page: Sequence: 16 Annotations: Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 494, 669, 506, 681 ActionDest: 171 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 285, 657, 292, 669 ActionDest: 234 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 191, 496, 203, 505 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 206, 496, 218, 505 ActionDest: 372 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 272, 483, 279, 492 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 183, 396, 195, 405 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 264, 182, 275, 191 ActionDest: 372 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 230, 170, 242, 179 ActionDest: 372 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 203, 157, 215, 166 ActionDest: 372 Page: Sequence: 17 Annotations: Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 522, 546, 534, 556 ActionDest: 369 Page: Sequence: 18 Annotations: Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 224, 500, 236, 509 ActionDest: 369 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 425, 259, 440, 271 ActionDest: 295 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 541, 158, 556, 170 ActionDest: 295 Page: Sequence: 19 Page: Sequence: 20 Page: Sequence: 21 Page: Sequence: 22 Page: Sequence: 23 Annotations: Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 209, 92, 247, 103 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 256, 69, 293, 80 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 308, 58, 346, 68 Page: Sequence: 24 Annotations: Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 174, 722, 212, 732 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 186, 687, 224, 697 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 190, 652, 227, 663 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 474, 640, 512, 651 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 274, 618, 311, 628 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 324, 594, 361, 605 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 384, 560, 422, 571 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 479, 537, 517, 548 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 189, 514, 227, 525 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 284, 491, 321, 502 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 125, 468, 193, 479 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 220, 445, 257, 456 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 254, 341, 334, 352 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 308, 318, 345, 329 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 338, 284, 560, 295 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 226, 249, 264, 260 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 346, 226, 384, 237 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 287, 215, 500, 226 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 265, 180, 302, 191 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 446, 169, 483, 180 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 493, 157, 531, 168 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 307, 134, 344, 145 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 59, 100, 97, 111 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 424, 77, 462, 88 Page: Sequence: 25 Annotations: Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 406, 732, 443, 743 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 184, 709, 222, 720 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 127, 687, 164, 697 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 178, 663, 215, 674 Checksum: 77ac28db Type: CRC32 Checksum: 32313b30997b39174c394714fd06a1b4 Type: MD5 Checksum: c08693d72c525531eee9fce96f2862190eec0124 Type: SHA-1 Checksum: 25aa50b747c9d69e8b65db5e930836481ddc32de8b10d7bc64bc05c966267b88 Type: SHA-256