Resources, Conservation & Recycling 180 (2022) 106133 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Resources, Conservation & Recycling journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/resconrec Prospects on end of life electric vehicle batteries through 2050 in Catalonia Mateo Sanclemente Crespo a, Marta Van Ginkel González a, Laura Talens Peiró a, * a Sostenipra reseach group (2017SGR1683), Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA-UAB), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (Unitat Excelencia Maria de Maetzu MDM CEX2019-000940-M), 08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona, Spain A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T Keywords: As electric mobility gains prominence, the demand for electric vehicle batteries is rapidly rising. Although the Electric vehicle amount of these batteries reaching their end of life is presently negligible, studies to quantify their flows and Batteries stocks will progressively gain importance as they have a high potential for reuse and contain some economic End-of-life management valuable materials. This study aims at forecasting the number of batteries due to be collected yearly from 2020 to Product flow analysis Critical materials 2050 in Catalonia (Northeast Spain). Product flow analyses are developed considering two different future Circular Economy electric vehicle sales, and two lifespan scenarios for batteries, assuming they follow a Weibull lifetime probability distribution. The volume of batteries reaching their first-use end of life will not reach significance until 2050, however strategies to optimise their use can be placed earlier to get prepared to the coming influxes. If future electric vehicle sales are to meet the Spanish Climate Change Law, influxes of batteries can increase up to 25-fold in 2030 and 72-fold in 2040. Under the extended battery service scenarios, the storage capacity is estimated to be 4 to 5 times larger than in scenarios where batteries are recycled earlier. The potential supply of secondary materials from end of life batteries will increase up to 80% of cobalt, copper and nickel, and 60% of lithium in 2050. The results urge to place proper management strategies for batteries in the coming years to help optimising their use and their potential recovery. 1. Introduction Change Law), approved in April 2021 (BOE, 2021a). Nation-wide shifts towards electric mobility will result in a higher Electric mobility has become a hotspot for European Union’s green demand for high-performance traction batteries for electric vehicles policies (Niestadt and Bjornavold, 2019) and will play a crucial role in across Europe (Bobba et al., 2019), including Spain. Lithium-ion based the implementation of the European Green Deal (European Commis­ batteries - particularly lithium-cobalt batteries - are currently domi­ sion, 2019). For example Spain approved the Plan MOVES II - a nating the market for EV batteries (Cusenza et al., 2019), and are set to nationwide grant scheme incentivising the purchase of electric vehicles - keep dominating it in the following 30 years (Zubi et al., 2018). As soon after the release of the spring 2020′ s lockdown (BOE, 2020). The electric mobility continues gaining momentum, the demand for the raw outcome of the Plan MOVES II can be observed through the change in materials needed for the manufacturing of EV batteries will certainly the share of newly registered vehicles corresponding to electric vehicles increase. This is an issue particularly concerning the EU as some of these (EVs). In 2019, battery electric vehicles (i.e. BEVs or pure-electric ve­ materials - like lithium and cobalt - are considered Critical Raw Mate­ hicles) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) only accounted for rials for the EU (European Commission, 2020a) because of their large 0.8% and 0.6% of the total newly registered cars, respectively (Euro­ quantities needed and/or the concentration of their supply sources pean Alternative Fuels Observatory EAFO, 2021). However, the share of (European Commission, 2018). In 2006, the EU set up the Waste Battery newly registered BEVs and PHEVs increased towards 2.1% and 2.8% Directive, requiring member states to properly collect and recycle in­ respectively in 2020 (EAFO, 2021). The number of electric vehicles on dustrial and automotive batteries no longer in service (European the Spanish roads are set to keep on increasing in the coming years as Parliament and European Council, 2006). Therefore, producing sec­ Spain has set a target of 100% new electric passenger car and light ondary raw materials that re-enter the manufacturing process and commercial vehicle sales by 2040 as part of its Law on Climate Change reduce the need for primary raw materials (Mathieux et al., 2017). The and Energy Transition (now onwards referred to as the Spanish Climate role of battery recycling has been reinforced by the European * Corresponding author. E-mail address: laura.talens@uab.cat (L. Talens Peiró). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2021.106133 Received 17 August 2021; Received in revised form 19 December 2021; Accepted 26 December 2021 Available online 5 January 2022 0921-3449/© 2021 Published by Elsevier B.V. M. Sanclemente Crespo et al. Resources, Conservation & Recycling 180 (2022) 106133 Commission’s Strategic Action Plan on Batteries, which aims to ensure a batteries according to different lifetime patterns, which can contribute sustainable battery value chain within Europe in line with the 2015 and in finding proper management strategies for EOL EV batteries in 2020 Circular Economy Action Plans (CEAPs) (European Commission, Catalonia. 2020b, 2018, 2015). Extending the lifespan of products is considered one of the main 2.1. Modelling the EV batteries reaching the end of life strategies to achieve the reduction of material consumption required by the circular economy (Mesa et al., 2020). Under the current scenario, EV The number of batteries reaching their EOL is quantified using a batteries are considered to reach their end-of-life (EOL) once they are no Product Flow Analysis (PFA). PFA is a type of Material Flow Analysis longer capable of powering an EV, when they are then sent back to its (MFA) widely used to model the stocks and flows of different products manufacturer to recycle its components (European Parliament and Eu­ across their life cycles given some established system boundaries (Ai ropean Council, 2006). At this point, a lithium-ion battery still retains a et al., 2019; Magalini et al., 2012; Wu et al., 2020). PFAs often focus on residual capacity between 60% and 80% of its nominal capacity (Bobba the consumption stages of commodities, allowing examining how dif­ et al., 2019). Therefore, the lifespan of these batteries could be easily ferences in the lifetime and disposal rates of a product can affect the prolonged by assigning them a second life use in a less amount of waste generated (Wernick and Irvin, 2005). Few studies have energy-demanding application. This is one of the points targeted by the used PFAs to quantify the number of EV batteries reaching the end of new proposal for Regulation 2020/353 - aiming to revoke and update their first life in a region, which can later guide better EOL EV batteries the Waste Battery Directive - which includes guidelines to manage the management (Ai et al., 2019; Wu et al., 2020). second life of batteries (European Commission, 2020c). Recent research This study follows the Brunner and Rechberger (2004) guidelines to efforts have found promising results in coupling retired EV batteries conduct two PFAs to quantify the total amount of EV batteries that need with renewable energy sources (Koch-Ciobotaru et al., 2015; Zubi et al., to be to be checked to be reused, recycled or discarded (Ai et al., 2019) in 2018), particularly in residential household solar energy systems Catalonia each year, following Eq. (1). (Bobba et al., 2018a, S. 2018b), for their second life uses. In this sce­ nario, the batteries can be used for photovoltaics firming, photovoltaics ∑ n W(n) = POM(t)⋅L(p) (t, n) (1) smoothing, primary frequency regulation and energy time shift and peak t=t0 shaving (Bobba et al., 2018a; DigiPrime project, 2020). As more EV batteries reach their EOL, infrastructure to collect, select In which (Magalini et al., 2012; Melo, 1999; Oguchi et al., 2010): and prepare the batteries for their second life use needs to be made is the quantity of batteries reaching their EOL in evaluation year n. available in Spain. Understanding the temporal characteristics of EOL is the amount of EV batteries entering the market in any historical batteries can guide the implementation of policies that effectively deal years t prior to year n with these batteries. However, data on the quantity or volume of retired t0 is the initial year a product was put on the market batteries, battery type, technology availability and demand for recycled L(p) (t, n) reflects the probable obsolescence rate in evaluation year n. products is very limited (Ai et al., 2019). Previous studies have used Two PFAs are conducted. The first PFA quantifies the number of EV different models to project the number of retired EV batteries in the batteries reaching their first EOL. The second PFA quantifies the number coming years at a national level in China (Wu et al., 2020), the US of EV batteries going to second life uses will reach their EOL yearly. (Richa et al., 2014) and at a regional level in the state of California (Ai Combining these two PFAs results in the total amount of EV batteries et al., 2019). National-level studies of this type predominate the litera­ needing to be treated yearly. In these PFAs we assume that batteries are ture. However, regional analyses have a bigger capacity to connect EOL treated the same year they reach their EOL, that all EV batteries pur­ EV batteries management with urban and regional planning (Ai et al., chased in Catalonia are treated within the Catalan administrative bor­ 2019). ders and that no batteries purchased elsewhere need to be treated. The This study aims at forecasting the number of EV batteries reaching following sections illustrate the procedures to calculate the two main their EOL yearly from 2020 to 2050. This information is key to help variables affecting the quantity of batteries reaching their EOL: the optimise the service life of EV batteries as well as to estimate the po­ number of batteries put on the market and their lifespan. tential secondary materials (i.e., cobalt, copper, lithium, and nickel) at their EOL. To do so, the study focused on the Spanish region of Catalonia 2.1.1. EV batteries put on the market in Catalonia which accounts for over 16% of vehicle registrations in Spain (Idescat, EV battery inflows into the Catalan market come from the sale of new 2021a). The study is performed using a product flow analysis consid­ EVs and the sale of replacement batteries. As replacement batteries ering two future EV sales scenarios and modelling the lifespan of EV represent only a very small proportion of the total EV batteries market batteries using a Weibull lifetime probability distribution function. The (Ai et al., 2019), we assume that EV sales determine the historic and educated guess for EOL EV batteries is later used to predict the number projected EV battery sales volumes. of batteries that could be available for second use as energy storage There are data of EV registrations since 2013 (ICAEN, 2017), how­ equipment and then to calculate the quantity of materials contained ever these data do not classify EVs into their type and technology classes, within the batteries that can be possibly recovered. Results are given for thus impeding a more accurate analysis. The Catalan Energy Institute the yearly generation of treated batteries, the potential energy storage (ICAEN) has compiled EV registrations data since 2017 in the ‘Dades capacity if reused and the potential secondary material production for obertes’ in a more detailed form which also includes the typology of the the four defined scenarios. In the discussion the significance of the re­ vehicle (ICAEN, 2021). As result, we use EV registrations data from the sults and suggestions to better guide decision makers to setup of regional latest dataset to represent historical EV sales, assuming that EV regis­ management strategies for EOL EV batteries are proposed. trations match EV sales in Catalonia. Therefore, this study counts with the EV registration data between 2017 and 2020, and with the pre­ 2. Methods and data dictions of future EV registrations until 2040, following three different sales scenarios. We assume that all the batteries within the sold vehicles This paper uses Product Flow Analyses (PFAs) to quantify the num­ consist of lithium-ion based technologies. ber of EV batteries that will reach the end of their first life use in EVs. Based on this information, it provides estimates of the amount of EV 2.1.1.1. Data gathering of EV historical sales. The EV registration data batteries available for second life and the material recovery potentials from the Catalan Energy Institute (ICAEN) includes information for BEV, for a number of materials (cobalt, copper, lithium and nickel). The re­ PHEV, HEV and MHEV vehicles, which are described in Table A.1 of the sults of PFAs are used to characterise the stocks and flows of EOL EV Supplementary information. These EV types differ in many architectural 2 M. Sanclemente Crespo et al. Resources, Conservation & Recycling 180 (2022) 106133 aspects, being their battery capacity the most notorious one. Although volumes predicted by the Spanish Association of Automobile and battery capacities change vastly between car models, BEVs are the ve­ Truck Manufacturers (ANFAC) (ANFAC, 2020) in which yearly pas­ hicles with a bigger energy storage capacity, starting from 40 to 80 kWh. senger car sales in Spain are predicted to be 1.4 million by 2040. PHEVs are the second type with a bigger capacity, with up to 15 kWh of Finally, despite the uncertainties regarding vehicles sales, we storage (ICAEN, 2021). PHEV sales in Catalonia follow a similar trend as extended the study until 2050 assuming EV sales will remain con­ in the rest of Europe where, as described by Tsiropoulos et al., 2018, stant to be able to evaluate the effect on the possible storage capacity PHEV battery capacities and mileage efficiencies have been decreasing of repurposed batteries and the potential materials recovered from in recent years in favour of an increase of vehicles’ power with larger batteries put on the market between the years 2030 and 2040. internal combustion engines. HEVs and MHEVs have smaller batteries with a lower energy storage capacity, with capacities of 8kWH and 1 2.1.2. Modelling the lifespan of ev batteries kWh or less respectively (APTIV, 2021). As smaller batteries degrade Battery lifespan is a crucial factor in PFA models estimating EOL EV faster than bigger batteries, they are not as useful for second life uses battery flows. In general, it is assumed that the lifespan of an EV battery (Barré et al., 2013). For this reason, we have only considered BEVs, as ends when it can no longer power a car, approximately when they only they are the most relevant for the purpose of this study. Details about the retain an 80% of their original capacity (Neubauer et al., 2015; Richa registration for all typologies of vehicle are available in Table A.2 of the et al., 2014). Three main factors are affecting the EV battery lifespan: (1) Supplementary information. battery capacity and degradation rate, which are related to the type of Catalan and Spanish policies and incentives promoting electric EV technology (smaller batteries need to be recharged more frequently mobility exist for different types of vehicles but focus especially on and have greater degradation rates); (2) technology and battery mate­ passenger cars (BOE, 2020, 2021a; GENCAT, 2019). In fact, passenger rials (newer batteries have upgraded technologies that allow longer cars are the second type of vehicle with the most EV registrations in lifespans); and (3) the consumer usage pattern, which includes factors 2020, right after mopeds (Table A.2 in supplementary information). such as driving and recharging behaviours and road conditions (Ai et al., However, the battery of an electric moped is smaller (2–5 kWh) than 2019). These factors imply that EV battery lifespans do not follow a that of an electric passenger car. Thus, it degrades faster, limiting their normal but a Weibull distribution, which is later described in this suitability for second life uses. Consequently, electric passenger cars will section. provide the highest volume of EOL EV batteries available for a second EV batteries are under constant technological advances that prolong life use. For this reason, this study models the EOL EV batteries of pas­ their lifetime (Ai et al., 2019). Currently, EV batteries are considered to senger cars. last between 5 and 15 years (Bobba et al., 2019), and most EV manu­ HEVs currently dominate the market of EVs in Catalonia but MHEVs facturers include battery warranties spanning for 8–10 years (Ai et al., are gaining importance as observed in the annual registrations of pas­ 2019). Continuous innovations on batteries, such as battery perfor­ senger cars for each type of EV technology between 2017 and 2020 mance management (BPM), optimisation approaches and new structure (table A.3 of supporting information). Car registrations for PHEVs are and materials, are expected to carry on prolonging the EV battery life­ also increasing, reaching an all-time maximum in 2020 (Table A.3). time (Cano et al., 2018) reaching 15 years by 2030 (EUROBAT, 2015). However, BEVs are the category set to dominate the market in the As there is wide variability in the lifetime of batteries and many following years as the Spanish Climate Change Law has established, via variables are affecting their lifespan, there is no consensus on EV battery the Integrated National Plan on Energy and Climate (PNIEC), that by lifetime amongst literature analysing the inventory of EOL EV batteries 2030 there must be a fleet of three million electric vehicles in Spain. It in a region. Some studies have used a constant (Ai et al., 2019) while has also set that by 2040 no more cars with internal combustion engines others an increasing battery lifetime along the years studied (Ai et al., are to be sold (BOE, 2021a; MITERD, 2020b). It is to be noted that this 2019; Wu et al., 2020). In this study, we aim at examining the first EOL database does not include data entries for hydrogen-fuelled vehicles EV battery generation in Catalonia according to two different battery (FCEVs), which are also all-electric vehicles. However, this type of ve­ lifespan scenarios. The ‘reduced battery service’ scenario considers that hicles is set to play a major role in the electrification of mobility in the batteries have a constant lifetime of 10 years, the current average EV future decades. In fact, there are roadmaps to foster hydrogen-based battery lifespan (EUROSTAT, 2020). The second scenario referred to as transportation both at the Catalan (ICAEN et al., 2020) and Spanish ‘extended battery service’ follows that of Ai et al. (2019), in which level (MITERD, 2020a). battery lifetimes increase over time from an average lifespan of 10 years in 2017 to 16 years in 2035–2040 (Table B.1 of supplementary infor­ 2.1.1.2. Definition of EV future sales. To forecast future EV sales data, mation). In total, we will examine four different scenarios with different we modelled the predicted EV registrations in Catalonia from 2021 to 2040 according to two different scenarios: Table 1 • Scenario A: EV passenger car sales follow the current sale trend, Summary of the four scenarios defined for this study. increasing linearly until 2040 following the 2017–2020 trend. Scenario Future sales Lifetime assumptions (L) • Scenario B: Several assumptions are made in this scenario. First, name scenario (POM) First life Reuse rate Second life regarding the EV car sales in Catalonia according to the targets set by A.1 Based on the Reduced From 10% Reduced the Spanish Climate Change Laws, and the EV market share in Cat­ 2017–2020 EV service: 10 (2017) up service: four alonia. Passenger car sales increase to reach Spanish Climate Change sales trend years to 25% years Law targets, which sets three million cars must have been sold by (2030) A.2 Based on the Extended From 10% Extended 2030 and that no more internal combustion engine cars are set to be 2017–2020 EV service: from (2017) up service: from sold after 2040. We assume that the proportion of cars sold in Cat­ sales trend 10 to 16 years to 75% four to 12 alonia respect to Spain by 2030 remains the same as it has been (2030) years during the last five years (15%) (Idescat, 2021a). The second B.1 Reach Spanish Reduced From 10% Reduced Climate change service: 10 (2017) up service: four assumption taken is on trend of BEV sales in Catalonia. We also as­ Law’s targets years to 25% years sume that BEV yearly sales in Catalonia increase linearly from 2020 (2030) sales to reach the target of cumulative sold cars by 2030 including B.2 Reach Spanish Extended From 10% Extended sales since 2017. Third, we assume that from 2030 to 2040 yearly Climate change service: from (2017) up service: from BEV sales will linearly increase to match passenger cars sales Law’s targets 10 to 16 years to 75% four to 12 (2030) years 3 M. Sanclemente Crespo et al. Resources, Conservation & Recycling 180 (2022) 106133 EV sale and battery lifetimes values, all summarised in Table 1. their second life use every year. The PFA is performed analogously as for Each individual EV battery has its own lifespan, which may differ the first life but using a different scale parameter, that is a different from the average EV battery lifespan assumed. Probability distribution average lifetime. Bobba et al., 2018a and Neubauer et al., 2015 esti­ functions for EV battery lifespans are used to represent the variety in mated an average second lifetime of three to four years. Other estima­ each single battery lifespan and to predict the generation of EOL EV tions considered the possibility to reuse batteries during 10 to 13 years batteries (Wu et al., 2020). This study uses the Weibull distribution (Assunção et al., 2016; Neubauer et al., 2015). Hence for the second life function, which considers different product life behaviours to model forecast, the battery ’reduced service’ scenario sets a constant average realistic product lifetime distributions (Ai et al., 2019). The Weibull lifetime of four years while in the battery ’extended service’ scenario the distribution has been widely used in the analysis of e-waste (Magalini average lifetime increases linearly from four years to 12 years for bat­ et al., 2014, 2012; Polák and Drápalová, 2012) and in the analysis of teries starting their reuse in the year 2030. EOL EV batteries (Ai et al., 2019; Richa et al., 2014; Temiz and Guven, After the second life, all EV batteries are assumed to be collected for 2016; Wu et al., 2020; Xu et al., 2020). recycling. The number of EV batteries reaching yearly the end of their In this study, we adopt a Weibull probability density function defined first and second life is added up resulting in the total number of EV by two parameters: the shape α(t) and the scale β(t). The Weibull dis­ batteries due to be treated. Batteries reaching their end of lives are tribution adopted in this study is defined by Eq. (2) (Magalini et al., further analysed to quantify the potential for secondary materials. 2014): 2.3. Estimates of potential secondary materials from EV batteries α(t) L(p) (t, n) = α(t) (n − t)α(t)− 1 e− [(n− t)/β(t)]α(t) (2) β(t) A preliminary step to estimate the potential quantity of secondary Eq. (2) is one of the parameters of Eq. (1), and the shape and scale materials from EV EOL batteries is to investigate further the chemical parameters. The shape parameter α refers to the technical failure rates of composition of these batteries. There are multiple types of battery the batteries (Schuster et al., 2015) and determines the shape of the chemistries that differ in properties such as safety, stability, energy probability density function (Wu et al., 2020). Based on the studies done density, lifetime and, importantly, material requirements (Campagnol by Ai et al. (2019) and Wu et al. (2020), we adopt the shape parameter of et al., 2019). Lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) chemistries 3.5. We assume the shape parameter does not change during the years currently dominate the EV battery market due to their long cell dura­ considered in our study, as it hardly varies over time (Wang et al., 2013). bility, high performances and relatively low cost (Azebedo et al., 2018). The scale parameter β represents the average lifetime of EV batteries However, they require cobalt, considered an EU critical raw material (Barré et al., 2013). We have employed different β values in our Weibull due to its high economic importance and a high supply risk potential distributions, according to the lifespans indicated in Table 1. Addition­ (Greenwood et al., 2021). For this reason, nickel-rich formulations of ally, we also assume that EV batteries are sent for EOL management the NMC, such as NMC-622 and NMC-811, are gaining grounds in the EV same year they reach their EOL. market, especially in the EU. In fact, McKinsey (Campagnol et al., 2019) Finally, we combined the values obtained with this function with the estimated that NMC chemistries would represent 72% of all EV batteries number of EV batteries put on the market (POM) following Eq. (1), as by 2020 but 93% by 2030 (see Figure B.1 of supplementary informa­ done by (European Commission, n.d.). Therefore, obtaining the total tion). Other studies, such as that of Zubi et al. (2018) include different amount of EV batteries reaching their end-of-life each year in Catalonia battery chemistry mix forecasts that estimate that NMC chemistries will from 2017 to 2050. have a market share of a 35% while lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and lithium nickel-cobalt-aluminium oxide (NCA) chemistries will have a 40% combined market share. In this study, we assume that the battery 2.2. Estimates of EV batteries available for second life chemistry distribution mix follows McKinsey’s forecast, as it includes estimates of the market share occupied by each of the different types of The quantity of EV batteries put on the market (POM) and the NMC cathodes (i.e. NMC-111, NMC-622 and NMC-811)(Campagnol different lifetime scenarios described are combined following Eq. (1) to et al., 2019). McKinsey’s forecast includes estimates of the battery obtain the total amount of EV batteries reaching their first EOL in Cat­ chemistry mix until 2030, and we assume that it remains constant from alonia from 2017 to 2050. Once EV batteries are collected, they can have 2030 to 2050 in order to be able to estimate secondary material re­ a second life in stationary storage applications. The number of EV bat­ coveries from 2030 to 2050. Nonetheless, it needs to be acknowledged teries available for second life will be determined by the number of EV that this assumption is limited by the fact that new battery technologies batteries reaching the end of their first life and the collection rate. This – such as NMC-955, NMC-9525, NCA-955 and beyond lithium-ion bat­ study assumes a 95% collection rate for the two scenarios as EV batteries teries – are likely to disrupt the EV battery market once they become collection ranges between 90 and 100% in Europe (Abdelbaky et al., commercially available (Abdelbaky et al., 2021; Greenwood et al., 2021; 2021; Bobba et al., 2020; S. 2018b). Out of the collected batteries, Mauler et al., 2021). Bloomberg New Energy Finance (Curry, 2017) estimated that in 2025, This study estimates the content of relevant materials (i.e. cobalt, 27% of these batteries will have a second life in stationary storage units, copper, lithium and nickel) within EV batteries as defined per kWh basis whereas the remaining 73% will be available for recycling. Neubauer based on projected yearly energy capacities. Lithium-ion battery ca­ et al. estimated availability for recovery around 80% (Neubauer et al., pacities for BEVs and PHEVs are set to increase to meet EV range goals 2015). As result, we assumed an initial reuse rate of 10% out of the (Greenwood et al., 2021). IRENA (2017) estimate that BEV battery ca­ collected batteries for both scenarios. Then, we assume that the pacities will increase from 40 kWh in 2017 to 52 kWh in 2025 and 60 improvement in management strategies will help these percentages to kWh from 2030 onwards. The requirement of cobalt, copper, lithium, increase linearly until 2030 up to 25% for the battery ‘reduced service’ and nickel per kWh for every battery chemistry type considered in the scenario and 75% for the battery ‘extended service’ scenario. After 2030, study is detailed in Table B.2 of the supplementary information. the reuse rates remain constant until 2050. These percentages are To estimate the potential for secondary materials out of the batteries, employed to calculate how many of the EV batteries reaching the end of it is important to understand the functionalities of the relevant mate­ their first life use each year will go onto second life uses as storage rials. For example, cobalt, lithium, and nickel constitute parts of the systems for PVs. EV batteries reused for other applications other than cathode of the batteries. Lithium is also used as a salt in the electrolyte in powering electric cars will ultimately be recycled to recover the mate­ Li-ion batteries while copper is used as the current collector foil at anode rials within them. Hence, we perform a PFA of the EV batteries with a side, in wires and other conductive parts (Bobba et al., 2020). All these second life use to quantify the number of batteries will reach the end of materials are in a chemical form that is potentially recyclable. However, 4 M. Sanclemente Crespo et al. Resources, Conservation & Recycling 180 (2022) 106133 at present EV batteries mainly undergo pyrometallurgical processes that 3.1. EV batteries reaching the end of their life only target metals with high economic value such as cobalt, copper and nickel (European Commission, 2020d; Mossali et al., 2020). Indeed, it The quantity of EV batteries reaching their EOL can be calculated was estimated that in 2015 no lithium recycling took place in Europe with information about the number of EV batteries put on the market (European Commission, 2020d). Pilot plants have proven possible to and the modelling of their lifespan. With the Spanish Climate Change apply a hydrometallurgical process or a sequence of a pyrometallurgical Laws assumed for scenarios B, the amount of EV batteries POM will be and hydrometallurgical processes and achieve a recycling efficiency significantly greater than in the EV sales-as-usual for scenarios A. over 50% for lithium and 90% for cobalt, copper and nickel (Lebedeva Table C.1 of the supporting information shows the amount of EV bat­ et al., 2016). teries put on the Catalan market from 2020 to 2050. By 2030, 80 In this study, we assumed a unique scenario, determined by the thousand EVs will be sold in scenario B while only 11 thousand EV will targets in the new draft European Batteries Regulation proposal on be sold under scenario A. By 2040, 19 and 230 thousand car sales are recycling efficiency (European Commission, 2020c – Annex XII), which forecasted under scenarios A and B respectively. This means that the seeks drastic improvements in lithium recycling efficiency. The recy­ sales of EVs can increase up to 25-fold in 2030, and up to 72-fold in cling efficiency of lithium is set to increase from 0% to 35% in 2025 and 2040. These results are relevant to predict the role that EV batteries can to 70% in 2030. For copper, cobalt and nickel, we assumed efficiencies play in future energy transition and waste scenarios. starting from 80% in 2017, increasing up to 90% in 2025 and 95% in Based on the quantity of EV POM, Fig. 1 shows the results for the 2030. There are some other materials contained in EV batteries that diverse EV sales and battery lifespan scenarios. By 2030, 2.4 and 8.4 were not considered in this study. The recycling of natural graphite is thousand batteries are expected to reach their first-use EOL under sce­ assumed to remain negligible throughout the studied period as result it narios A and B. By 2040, these figures will rise to 7.4 and 55 thousand was not included in the study. For manganese, another material con­ units and by 2050 to 14.3 and 151 thousand units. The results show that tained in batteries, the new battery regulation does not define recycling even though there is still time until a large volume of EOL EV batteries efficiencies, probably because it is not classed as a EU Critical Raw reach the Catalan market, reuse and recycling strategies for EV batteries Material. The materials recovered are assumed to be potentially reusable should be set up soon to prepare for the coming influxes, particularly if into batteries, as recently demonstrated by Ma et al., 2021. the Spanish Climate Change Law is to be met. Further information is available in Table C.2 of the supporting information. 3. Results and discussion Although assumptions have been cautiously chosen, there are still some uncertainties remain in this study, particularly in those variables As the number of EV batteries starts to gain importance in the related to forecasts on future sales and battery technology advance­ transition to a lower carbon economy, analyses that help envision ments. Decision-makers looking at this paper for guidance on the possible strategies to optimise their lifetime of EV batteries and to application of suitable EV battery reuse and recycling strategies in quantify their potential contribution to the supply of materials are in Catalonia should take into account that our long-term estimates are less order. To account for the EV batteries reaching their EOL, two main reliable than our short-term ones. The result about the potential reused variables are modelled: the amount of EV batteries put on the market, and recycled batteries are commented in the next sections. and their lifetime. The following section shows the results of the esti­ mated EV batteries reaching their EOL, the quantity of batteries avail­ able for second life and the potential production of secondary materials 3.2. EV batteries available for second life in four possible scenarios. Assuming the respective reuse rates described in table 1, the number of EV batteries reaching their EOL in Catalonia during selected years from 2020 to 2050 suitable for second life uses as stationary energy storage units were accounted for. By 2050, under scenarios B1 and B2, Fig. 1. Yearly generation of first life EOL EV batteries (a), the potential reused batteries (b) and the potential recycled batteries (c) in Catalonia from 2017 to 2050 according to the four different scenarios: A1 - EV sales as usual and reduced EV battery service life, A2 - EV sales as usual and extended EV battery service life, B1 - EV sales to meet the Spanish Climate Change Law and reduced EV battery service life, B2 - EV sales to meet the Spanish Climate Change Law and extended EV battery service life. 5 M. Sanclemente Crespo et al. Resources, Conservation & Recycling 180 (2022) 106133 the quantity of EV batteries suitable for reuse is an order of magnitude 3.3. Potential secondary materials from EV batteries higher than that of the A1 and A2 scenarios – showing that the number of batteries put on the market will have a big influence on the EV bat­ An educated guess about the potential production of cobalt, copper, teries that can be reused as stationary storage systems. Scenarios A1 and lithium and nickel from EOL batteries is performed. Fig. 1 shows esti­ B1 with a reduced lifespan (10 years for the first life) will generate mates of how many batteries will be available for recycling annually nearly double the amount of EOL EV batteries after first use in the mid- under the four different scenarios. Out of the recycled batteries, we term than scenarios with extended lifespan. However, because in sce­ measured the potential material recoveries in Catalonia taking into narios A1 and B1 most batteries are diverted from second uses to recy­ consideration the year these batteries were put on the market to deter­ cling, the actual number of batteries for second life uses installed every mine their capacity and composition. The analysis also considers the year after 2030 would be nearly half of that in the extended battery year the batteries are recycled to determine the recycling efficiencies. In service scenarios (i.e. A.2 and B.2). As prior to their second life use, line with previous results, under reduced battery lifespans and larger batteries need to be checked and, if necessary, repurposed to meet the influxes of batteries put on the market, the number of materials avail­ requirements to become reliable stationary storage units. Centers that able for recovery is higher (see Fig. 3). Besides, under extended lifetime specialize in the preparation for reuse of EV batteries are needed in and higher reuse rates scenarios, secondary sourced materials will be Catalonia. Currently, the influx of retired EV batteries needing to be able to supply a smaller proportion for the manufacturing of new bat­ prepared for reuse is negligible but, by 2030, around 150–1100 units teries (Fig. 3). We also find that the higher the increase in EV batteries will be suitable for reuse and will need to be processed. put on the market every year, the smaller proportion of recovered ma­ The nominal storage capacity at a given year for the two EV sales terials in new products will be achieved. In the case of scenario B2 while scenarios is accounted for considering that new batteries’ capacity in­ there is a fast increase in new BEVs yearly sales before 2040, the creases as stated in Table 1, repurposed EV batteries retain 80% of their recovered proportion does not exceed 10% for any metal, being insuf­ nominal capacity and that EV batteries have a second lifespan in ficient to meet the recycled content set in the draft of the New EU Battery accordance with the scale factors of scenarios 1 and 2. The installed Regulation. After 2040, the proportions of recoverable materials in­ energy storage rated capacity from repurposed batteries, increases every crease rapidly for both scenarios B1 and B2 (Fig. 3). It should be noted, year, reaching maximum values of 700 kWh to 35 MWh by the year however, that long-term estimates of materials’ demand present large 2050 (Fig. 2). The amount of EV batteries put on the market highly in­ uncertainties. The reduction in the use of cobalt rich cathodes can fluences the total storage capacity of second-life batteries, as the sce­ explain the higher proportion of recoverable cobalt in all scenarios narios with larger forecasted EV sales (i.e. B.1 and B.2) will have a despite having the same recycling efficiency as copper and nickel potential storage capacity an order of magnitude higher than on the (Fig. 3). It must be noted, however, that in our scenarios, we did not other scenarios. Besides, in extended service scenarios it was obtained a consider the influence of the extended service and promotion of reuse of storage capacity of 4 to 5 times larger than in scenarios where batteries batteries in the demand for new batteries in both vehicles and stationary are recycled earlier (Fig. 2). Extending the service of EV batteries energy storage applications. through second life uses as stationary energy storage to support the Discussion further implementation of stochastic renewable technologies aligns with Understanding the number of batteries reaching their EOL yearly is PNIEC (MITERD, 2020b). The storage capacity provided by second-life key to define a more optimal management and ensure their recycling. batteries can help achieve this goal. However, depending on the life­ Similar to findings by Ai et al. (2019), we find that under extended span these batteries reach, the difference in installed storage capacity at lifetime scenarios the annual EOL EV batteries increases at lower rate a given moment can vary by more than 50%. than when a reduced lifespan is assumed. Extending EV battery lifespans reduces significantly the total batteries needing to be treated every year. We find that, for the year 2030, 37% and 46% less batteries need to be Fig. 2. Potential storage capacity (in kWh) available from the EOL EV batteries reused as stationary storage units in Catalonia. Values are represented in logarithmic scale to illustrate the exponential growth from present to 2050. 6 M. Sanclemente Crespo et al. Resources, Conservation & Recycling 180 (2022) 106133 Fig. 3. Potential secondary materials to be recovered yearly from 2030 to 2050: cobalt (Co), copper (Cu), lithium (Li), and nickel (Ni). treated when lifetimes are extended in sales scenarios A and B, respec­ and by the financial motivations to do so. tively. Similarly, for the year 2050, these percentages would be 27% and One measure included in the draft regulation related to reuse and 31%. Prolonging EV battery lifespans plays a major role in determining recycling includes an obligation to batteries producers to facilitate the the EOL EV battery generation in a region. It helps understand the ur­ access to information on the state of the battery and the best practices for gency to set up large-scale reuse and recycling infrastructure and stra­ handling the battery to independent operators (third parties) trying to tegies to ensure the close loop management of EV batteries. repurpose the battery (articles 14, 47 59) (European Commission, In the EU, the draft of the new EU battery Regulation sets some 2020c). The possibility of EV battery to be repurposed will be certainly implementing measures interesting to be discussed together with the influenced as well by its design architecture. This is the accessibility to results obtained in section 3. Some of these measures refer to recycling, the battery within the EV and the design features (i.e. connectors) of the the state of the battery, their architectural design, and their carbon parts and the components within the battery. In fact, the design of the EV footprint. The potential recycling of batteries has been extensively battery is suspected to be highly influential not only for reuse but also to analysed in this study. As demonstrated in the results, there is a high ensure repairing, repurposing and recycling (Kampker et al., 2021; potential to close the loop of cobalt, copper and nickel if recycling ef­ Mossali et al., 2020). The sooner ecodesign strategies to facilitate battery ficiency are met. From a life-cycle perspective, as we move from internal disassembly are put in place, the sooner efficient reuse and recycling combustion to electric cars, the emissions generated during the extrac­ strategies would be achieved. tion and refining of raw materials stages will gain further importance Another relevant measure is the obligation to provide a carbon (Kawamoto et al., 2019). These emissions can be reduced through the footprint estimate for EV due to be commercialized in the EU. The secondary sourcing of materials. In fact, Hao et al. (2017) estimated that calculation of the life cycle carbon footprint ‘shall be based on the bill of 10% of the life cycle EV greenhouse gas emissions could be reduced material, the energy use, and the auxiliary materials used in a specific using secondary materials, of which the recycling of NMC batteries plant to produce a specific battery model’. Working towards more could account for 13–23% of the total reduction. As mentioned earlier, quantitative information about the bill of materials of battery compo­ some of the materials within EV batteries are considered Critical Raw nents, especially cathode materials and the electronics, is needed as they Materials by the EU mainly due to their high import reliance from third represent the main contributor for the battery carbon footprint. Ac­ countries (Bobba et al., 2020; European Commission, 2020d). The draft counting for the carbon footprint of reused and remanufactured batte­ of the new battery regulation (European Commission, 2020c) sets ries is still incipient (Xiong et al., 2020). Data available are generally minimum mandatory levels of recycled cobalt, lithium, and nickel. given as kg of CO2 equivalent per kg of battery compared to data for However, the rapid demand for EV batteries as a result of policies pro­ primary batteries calculated as kg CO2 equivalent per kWh (Hall and moting e-mobility in Spain will create short- and medium-term bottle­ Lutsey, 2018) and without a clear description of the lifetime assumed. necks in their supplies, which will be exacerbated by the extension of Renewable energy generation for self-consumption is to play a major battery lifespans. Therefore, the current EV sales targets combined with role in the shift of the current energetic paradigm to the Spanish Climate the recycling efficiency and secondary material use targets may result Change Law scenarios which aims at generating 74% of energy from incompatible. Nevertheless, it is important to set recycling efficiency renewable sources by 2030 (BOE, 2021a). EV batteries after the first life obligations and targets, particularly for lithium, for two reasons. First, could represent a central element at facilitating the installation of lithium is a critical raw material only recoverable from li-ion batteries photovoltaics in neighbour communities. Indeed, their use to support PV recycling (European Commission, 2020d). The other end uses of lithium installations is the most promising second life application according to are considered as in-use dissipation (i.e. lubricants and greases) and literature (Bobba et al., 2018a; Drabik and Rizos, 2018). Multiple ben­ currently unrecyclable (i.e. glass and ceramics, continuous casting). efits may arise from the synergies between retired EV batteries and Second, battery recycling is currently mainly motivated by the economic photovoltaic energy, such as the smoothing of photovoltaic power value of recovered cobalt, while lithium is left completely unrecovered generation (Ceja-Espinosa and Espinosa-Juarez, 2017), facilitating the (Lebedeva et al., 2016, European Commission, 2020d). An evolution to access to electricity in remote location with limited access to electricity cathode chemistries mix with low or free of cobalt may provide even grid infrastructure and the reduction of the total cost of the EV batteries lower economic incentives for batteries recycling (Abdelbaky et al., by giving them an EOL monetary value and promoting the leasing of 2021). batteries by car manufacturers. The draft of this new regulations sets the obligation to producers of providing extended producer responsibility on new batteries to ensure 4. Conclusions their collection and to proceed in the repurposing for a second use. The draft regulation, however, is not explicit about reuse targets. Indeed, the As electric mobility continues to being promoted in Catalonia (and actual service lifespan and its reuse may undergo under an extended Spain), it is important to understand when EV batteries will reach their producer responsibility that will not necessarily follow any of the sce­ end-of-life to plan for a proper management. In this paper, we present a narios proposed in this paper. Regardless of the regulations over battery forecast on the EOL EV batteries to be treated yearly from 2020 to 2050. ownership, the life cycle of batteries will be eventually determined by Four scenarios have been defined considering a combination of future the technical limitations to extend its first use and to give it a second use, EV sales and service lifetime of EV batteries. The results show that the 7 M. Sanclemente Crespo et al. Resources, Conservation & Recycling 180 (2022) 106133 amount of EOL EV batteries can increase up to 72-fold in 2040. Measures References to ensure its optimal use either as a secondary energy storage equipment or for an optimal recovery of materials shall be put on place. Reusing Abdelbaky, M., Peeters, J.R., Dewulf, W., 2021. 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