Energy Research & Social Science 91 (2022) 102739 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Energy Research & Social Science journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/erss Knowledge claims in European Union energy policies: Unknown knowns and uncomfortable awareness Mario Giampietro a, b, *, Sandra G.F. Bukkens a a Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain b ICREA, Pg. Lluís Companys 23, Barcelona, Spain A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T Keywords: Despite the concerted efforts of the scientific community and politicians to contain greenhouse gas emissions, the Uncomfortable knowledge CO2 level in the atmosphere continues to increase monotonically. This raises the question whether the scientific Unknown knowns representations and related knowledge claims used to inform energy policy have been incomplete or incorrect. Knowledge claims Are there alternative relevant knowledge claims that have been overlooked or ignored in the discussion of energy Energy analysis Energy policy policies and if so, why? We answer these questions by elaborating three case studies, energy efficiency im­ Post-normal science provements, liquid biofuels, and decarbonization of electricity, and using a novel procedure for quality checking policy narratives that is based in post-normal science and developed in the EU project Moving Towards Adaptive Governance in Complexity: Informing NEXUS Security (MAGIC). The focus of our approach is on the coherence of the why (concerns or justifications), what (“solution”), and how (“scientific evidence”) of energy policies. We show that for all cases studied alternative knowledge claims, mostly derived from the relatively new field of non- equilibrium thermodynamics, would be available for better informing energy policy, but that they are unknown knowns in the chosen framing of the issues. We conclude that the idea that the various concerns identified in EU energy policy can be solved simultaneously is unrealistic. This idea can only persist by virtue of banishing un­ comfortable knowledge and the creation of implausible socio-technical imaginaries. When considering different aspects of the problem and integrating different narratives and knowledge claims, a smooth and painless tran­ sition to a zero-carbon economy seems unlikely. 1. Introduction and fossil energy (associated with GHG emissions) and of the lack of alternative energy sources that can be scaled up, in the short/medium The past four decades have been marked by combat against climate term, to guarantee the existing levels of secondary energy use in the change and a considerable amount of public funds has been poured into economy. scientific research to support strategies/policies to reduce greenhouse It is well known that when dealing with complex issues the use of gas emissions. Despite the concerted efforts of the scientific community quantitative analysis to inform policy is problematic [2–6], especially and politicians, the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere con­ with regard to sustainability [7–9] as it involves large-scale changes tinues to increase monotonically (Fig. 1). This raises the question where stakes and benefits are difficult to anticipate [10–15]. The recent whether the scientific representations and related knowledge claims COVID-19 pandemic has clearly shown the fragility of the Cartesian used in the problem framing and the formulation of solutions (energy dream of prediction and control when scientific advice is urgently policies) have been incomplete or incorrect. Are we using, in the energy needed to inform policies that seek to solve important problems domain, all pertinent knowledge available to inform policy? This involving a plurality of legitimate concerns and a weak understanding of question is relevant, given the current geopolitical situation in which a the causal relations to be addressed [16]. In such situations, it is unclear quick transition to renewable energy sources is considered highly how to select and prioritize the different legitimate concerns found in desirable. Indeed, the ongoing war in Ukraine has made painfully the society and how to select useful knowledge claims, supported by evident the dire implications of the EU's dependence on energy imports weak “scientific evidence” (i.e., affected by large doses of uncertainty), * Corresponding author at: Institute of Environmental Science and Technology, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, UAB Campus de Bellaterra, Edificio ICTA-ICP, 08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain. E-mail address: mario.giampietro@uab.cat (M. Giampietro). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2022.102739 Received 27 September 2021; Received in revised form 5 July 2022; Accepted 6 July 2022 Available online 13 July 2022 2214-6296/© 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). M. Giampietro and S.G.F. Bukkens Energy Research & Social Science 91 (2022) 102739 that often are contrasting. For energy policy, the issue is, if possible, (iii) decarbonization of electricity, by confronting the knowledge claims even more complex, given the difficulties in defining the concept of that have been used to inform policy with alternative knowledge claims energy security [17–20]. that have not been considered. Section 5 discusses the possible reasons The purpose of this paper is therefore twofold. First, to illustrate the why these alternative knowledge claims have been overlooked or practical usefulness of the novel approach that was developed in the ignored and reflects on the implications of complexity for the quality of recent EU project Moving Towards Adaptive Governance in Complexity: the governance of sustainability. Section 6 concludes. Informing NEXUS Security (MAGIC) for assessing the quality of the processes used in selecting the problem definition and the relevant 2. Methodology: how to handle complexity in science for knowledge claims for informing policies in the sustainable development governance? domain. One key outcome of the project was a new way to carry out this quality check: Quantitative Storytelling (QST). Second, to specifically 2.1. Conceptual framework examine the quality of the scientific knowledge claims currently used to inform energy policy in the EU. The results of three case studies, carried In this paper, we build on the conceptual framework developed in out in the context of this project, are used to flag the systemic neglect of the MAGIC project. In this project, we adopted the insights suggested by available alternative knowledge claims in the problem framing and the PNS [4,5,21] and the theory of modeling relation [22] to identify the selection of “scientific evidence”. Thus, our specific research questions relations over the different choices that must be made when framing a are: Are the existing knowledge claims used to inform energy policy given sustainability problem in search for solutions. An overview of this sound? Are there alternative relevant knowledge claims that have been conceptual map is given in Fig. 2. overlooked or ignored in the discussion of energy policies and if so, why According to the seminal work of Knight [24], there are four types of have they been ignored? Through answering these questions, we uncertainty associated with the process informing policy/action: (i) endeavor to validate the usefulness of the approach developed in uncertainty about the robustness of the problem definition; (ii) uncer­ MAGIC. tainty about the robustness of the anticipatory models; (iii) uncertainty The rest of the paper is organized in five sections. Section 2 presents about the consequences of our future action; (iv) uncertainty about the the conceptual framework developed in the project MAGIC for checking ability to properly implement our decisions. Funtowicz et al. [25] the quality of the process used to produce and use scientific information observe that “the objective of scientific endeavor in this new context in decision-making, and the QST proposed to implement the framing. may well be to enhance the process of the social resolution of the The approach is grounded in Post-Normal Science (PNS) and aims at problem, including participation and mutual learning among the handling two sources of uncertainty in the analysis of sustainability is­ stakeholders, rather than a definite solution or technological imple­ sues: identifying and prioritizing the perceptions of concerns and related mentation. This is an important change in the relation between the goals found in society (on the political side) and identifying and problem identification and the prospects of science-based solutions” (p. selecting useful representations of external referents and causal relations 104). Other authors have suggested that in this situation the production observed in the external world (knowledge claims resulting from sci­ and use of scientific information should involve an iterative process of entific inquiry). In this paper, we will focus on the scientific side of the participative deliberation in which the steps of problem definition and process. The remainder of the text illustrates the approach for selected selection of solutions should be repeated by “opening and closing down” knowledge claims supporting EU energy policy. Section 3 describes the different framings (epistemic boxes) rather than having experts discus­ disciplinary field of energy analysis as a source of knowledge claims sing only over a given framing [3,14]. pertinent to EU energy policy. It explains how, in the 1970s and 1980s, As illustrated in Fig. 2, we define a PNS sphere operating on the the debate over the limits to growth has not been properly informed by interface between the political and scientific sphere. It is here that we robust scientific analysis because of a systemic failure of this academic can check the quality of the two sets of pre-analytical choices (WHY and field. It then briefly introduces concepts relevant to properly address the HOW in Fig. 2) that must be made to arrive at a framing of “the problem complexity of energy transformations that have been made available by to be addressed” that is fit for purpose. The first set of pre-analytical the development of non-equilibrium thermodynamics. In Section 4, we choices (left side of Fig. 2) belongs to the political sphere and involves elaborate 3 cases, (i) energy efficiency improvements, (ii) biofuels, and the identification of relevant concerns and aspirations associated with Fig. 1. The Keeling Curve measuring the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere since 1958 with a few dates superimposed, referring to agreements aimed at reducing emissions (adapted from [1]). 2 M. Giampietro and S.G.F. Bukkens Energy Research & Social Science 91 (2022) 102739 Fig. 2. Conceptual map: the relations among the choices involved in decision-making about complex problems (adapted from [23]). social practices in society (translating into potential reasons for action), (1) Justification—the WHY associated with the selection of the as well as the prioritization of these concerns in relation to the “common concern(s) to be addressed. Why is a given policy or innovation good” (the WHY or justification). The second set of pre-analytical needed in the first place? choices (right side of Fig. 2) belongs to the scientific sphere and con­ (2) Normative—the WHAT associated with the “solution to the cerns the selection of representations and anticipatory models from problem”. What solution(s) should be implemented, i.e., the among those made available by scientific inquiry in different disciplines strategies and tactics to be adopted toward achieving the goals according to their robustness and usefulness for guiding action (the (actions to be taken), such as provisions in directives. HOW or explanation/mechanism). Both sets of choices are necessarily (3) Explanation—the HOW associated with the “scientific evidence”. made under uncertainty (Knight's first three sources of uncertainty Are the proposed solutions plausible and relevant in relation to [24]). In addition, they affect each other in an impredicative way. The the concerns to be addressed, and how do we know that? lower half of Fig. 2 shows several reflexive criteria, suggested by PNS, for assessing the quality of the process used to frame the problem to be As detailed in [30], QST does not consist in a strict protocol but is a addressed and its possible solutions (the WHAT). In this paper, we semantically open procedure, iterating steps of “opening-up” and mainly focus on the scientific sphere, that is, the selection of useful “closing-down” the analysis. The identification of alternative concerns representations and related knowledge claims in the field of energy and knowledge claims is an essential part of this procedure and can be policy. obtained in various ways, such as interviews and discourse analysis (for concerns) and trans-disciplinary research (knowledge claims). The 2.2. Quantitative storytelling conceptual map in Fig. 2 serves to keep coherence in the handling of this heterogenous information. For instance, the problem framing used in the Relational complexity and hierarchy theory tell us that a complex selection of a given policy can be opened up, by comparing it with system cannot be fully represented by any one model in particular alternative framings (“stories”) found among social actors (left side of [26,27]. Those wanting to use quantitative information for decision- Fig. 2) that have to be substantiated by quantitative data or by making about complex issues therefore face the standard predicament comparing it with alternative scientific explanations coming from identified by [28]: “all models are wrong, but some are useful”. This different disciplinary fields (right side of Fig. 2) (e.g., [31]). This entails does not mean that scientific inquiry is useless. Even if “true models” do confronting the original analysis (the “scientific evidence” referring to a not exist, we can still tell useful stories about complex problems by given scale and a chosen disciplinary problem framing supporting a selecting different perceptions of the system that we judge useful for our given choice of policy) with alternative analyses carried out at different purpose (e.g., for guiding action) [29]. scales or from different perspectives. We will illustrate this approach in Building on this premise, the project MAGIC has proposed “quanti­ Section 4 for the energy policy domain by using an unconventional tative storytelling” (QST) as a possible way to check the quality of the formulation of energy analysis based on the concept of metabolic pat­ process of selecting narratives in the framing of a given policy problem terns (that builds on insights from non-equilibrium thermodynamics). (on the left side of Fig. 2) while double checking the relevance and the By comparing non-equivalent scientific representations, new insights robustness of the models and indicators used in the analysis (on the right may emerge as well as incongruences in the “scientific evidence” used in side of Fig. 2). Hence, QST is a heuristic approach that uses the con­ the policy discussions (e.g., [32,33]). Indeed, the set of relations in Fig. 2 ceptual map in Fig. 2 to explore the existence of both concerns and clearly shows that the rigor of scientific evidence alone does not guar­ knowledge claims that could possibly challenge the fitness of purpose of antee the quality (i.e., fitness for purpose) of scientific input when a given policy. To this end, QST focuses on the consonance of the WHY- dealing with governance related research. Mismatches between justifi­ WHAT-HOW entanglement: cation, problem-framing/solution and explanations used to select 3 M. Giampietro and S.G.F. Bukkens Energy Research & Social Science 91 (2022) 102739 policies indicate a poor quality of the process. referring to typologies (equivalence classes) of thermodynamic cycles and, as a result, remained largely confined in the realm of physics and 2.3. Case studies engineering [43]. In 1973–74, the OPEC crisis put energy on the front burner in all All the case studies presented in this paper were developed in the developed countries [44]. The oil crisis shortly became part and parcel context of the project MAGIC (for more details, see [34,35]). In the to a perfect storm threatening the very ideological foundation of West­ energy efficiency case study, dominant and alternative concerns were ern civilization—the idea that infinite economic growth was possible on identified through interviews with EU policymakers and members of the a finite planet came under question. A series of books [45–47] were European Parliament as well as discourse analysis of EU policy docu­ forcing a societal reflection about: (1) the fact that the (energy) re­ ments [36,37]. Alternative knowledge claims were obtained from an sources needed for economic development might be finite; and (2) the analysis of the metabolic patterns of EU countries and China, using an existence of trade-offs between food security, energy security, sustained analytical framework (MuSIASEM) based on thermodynamics of non- economic growth and the preservation of ecosystem health. A particular equilibrium as described in [38,39]. In the biofuel case, dominant and influential contribution at that time was the report of the Club of Rome: alternative concerns were identified through qualitative content anal­ ‘The Limits to Growth’ [48]. ysis of EU policy documents [32,40] and subsequently confronted with In response to this growing concern, scientists working in energy alternative knowledge claims. The latter were derived from the appli­ analysis scrambled to quickly generate a new disciplinary knowledge cation of a novel analytical framework purposefully developed for this able to provide pertinent and useful scientific inputs. But the paradigm case and detailed in [41]. This framework is based on a biophysical of scientific reductionism (still dominant in quantitative analysis at that characterization of both the supply function of the biofuel system and time) crashed against the complexity of the processes of energy trans­ the corresponding societal demand. It was applied to the EU and selected formations. In spite of the tremendous effort of a large mass of EU countries [32,41]. The case study on the decarbonization of elec­ outstanding scientists, in those two decades conventional energy ana­ tricity focuses predominantly on knowledge claims and is based on a lysts were unable to provide any coherent explanation and representa­ detailed biophysical study of the electric grid of Germany and Spain tion of the energetic predicament of economic growth based on described in [33]. It was inspired by concerns about the German Ener­ biophysical narratives [43]. As concluded by Maddox [49] (p. 136), one giewende identified in policy documents and documented by Renner of the leading experts in the field: “these general methods to establish a et al. [33]. standard measure by which to conduct net energy analysis fail, and these In the remaining sections, we illustrate the usefulness of the con­ failures are crucial. They signify that there is no universal net energy ceptual framework and QST for selected aspects of energy policy. In calculation, because there is no unambiguous energy measure that al­ Section 3, we first describe the problems of the disciplinary field of lows one energy form to be compared to another. Energy cannot be energy analysis as a source of knowledge claims for supporting energy treated as a single entity, because its various forms possess irreconcilable policy. In Section 4, we then demonstrate, using the case studies, the qualitative distinctions”. After a series of open recognitions of the existence of alternative knowledge claims from this field and their generalized failure of energy analysis from leading experts, the field pertinence for energy policy in the EU. In Section 5, we return to the quickly faded away and the numerous new departments of “energetics” framework proposed in Fig. 2, to discuss the possible reasons why these that had appeared after the crisis scattered across Western universities knowledge claims have been ignored and link to the phenomenon of simply disappeared. This paved the way for the development and he­ social construction of ignorance in science and the sustainability gemony of the field of energy economics. discourse first described by Rayner [9]. In the second half of the XX century a new branch of thermody­ namics, non-equilibrium thermodynamics, brought the analysis of en­ 3. Energy analysis as a source of knowledge claims ergy transformations into the realm of complexity with the introduction of the idea of surplus entropy disposal proposed by Schrödinger [50] (in “It is important to realize that in physics today, we have no knowl­ an added note to Chapter VI of What is Life from 1945). Schrödinger's edge of what energy is. […] It is an abstract thing in that it does not idea was developed further by the work of the Prigogine school [51–54], tell us the mechanism or the reasons for the various formulas” [42]. with the introduction of the class of open dissipative systems. The (Chapter 4) outcome of non-equilibrium thermodynamics was that the representa­ tion of any energy system is special because of its history and hence In Section 3.1, we describe the historical context of energy analysis diametrically opposite to the solution opted by classic thermodynamics and summarize the difficulties encountered by the field of classical (i.e., classes of “ideal transformations”). The acknowledgment that thermodynamics in providing useful scientific input based on repre­ thermodynamic systems operate in a non-equilibrium situation had sentations of energy transformations as linear input/output processes. In profound epistemological implications: It implies that it is simply Section 3.2, we show that, despite the innate problems of the concept of impossible to use crispy relations based on predicative definitions of the energy, energy analysis can be a useful source of knowledge claims if the characteristics of energy systems. Probably this, as well as the highly principles of non-equilibrium thermodynamics are acknowledged, i.e., specialized scientific jargon of the field, explains why this ground- purposeful energy transformations take place within autocatalytic loops. breaking development went largely unnoticed in the scientific commu­ nity, even during the height of the energy crisis. 3.1. Energy analysis: the historical context 3.2. The revolution implied by thermodynamics of non-equilibrium The industrial revolution and notably the development of the steam engine in the second half of the XIX century led to the development of What is relevant for a discussion of the quality of energy analysis is the scientific field of thermodynamics. However, in relation to energy that, according to the new conceptual developments of thermodynamics analysis, early thermodynamic studies did not provide any practical, of non-equilibrium, energy analysis must always be contextualized. It operational tools that met the expectations of the traditional, reduc­ can only be carried out in relational terms, i.e., by looking at the ex­ tionistic scientific paradigm. Indeed, perhaps one of the key results of pected characteristics of the interaction of a special open dissipative classical thermodynamics was exactly that energy transformations are system with a special context. An approach based on this idea must impossible to represent in a deterministic way because they are irre­ answer questions that are taboo in reductionist science: (1) who is car­ versible and therefore all “special” and path dependent. Classical ther­ rying out the energy transformation of interest and why do we have this modynamics only arrived at representing “ideal transformations” energy transformation in the first place? and (2) what are the 4 M. Giampietro and S.G.F. Bukkens Energy Research & Social Science 91 (2022) 102739 implications of the identity of the system carrying out the energy compartments: (1) a catabolic compartment—in charge of gath­ transformation? Indeed, the definitions of “what energy is” and “what ering primary energy sources (and other materials/resources) energy transformations do” depend on the history, purpose, and the from the context; and (2) an anabolic compartment—in charge of identity of the energy system. This means that these questions cannot be both building the structure required to express end-uses and answered in a deterministic way using a “one size fits all” protocol, thus providing control. The coexistence of these two complementary putting limitations on the practical usefulness of conventional energy functional components generates an internal competition inside analysis. the metabolic system in relation to the allocation of end-uses that The implications of the findings of thermodynamics of non- determines the strength of the autocatalytic loop. equilibrium can be summarized in four points. These points are essen­ tial to understanding the predicament of conventional energy analysis These systemic features of metabolic systems (i.e., dissipative sys­ and the problems experienced by those trying to inform energy policies tems based on autocatalytic loops of energy forms) are very important using quantitative analysis: for energy analysis. Indeed, the competition between the catabolic and anabolic compartment for the use of available energy carriers defines (1) Energy cannot be defined in a predicative way, nor can energy be the quality of primary energy sources. Primary energy sources requiring made. This means that a system using energy (a dissipative an excessive investment of end-uses (labor, power capacity, and internal structure)—e.g., an organism, a city, an economy, a coun­ consumption of energy carriers) to supply energy carriers to the rest of try—must have available a stable supply of two different forms of society are of poor quality. A high requirement of end-uses needed to energy: (1) primary energy, i.e., sources coming from its sur­ produce a net supply of energy carriers (in the catabolic compartment) rounding; and (2) energy carriers (secondary energy), ready to be limits the ability of the metabolic system to express a diversity of used, internally, in the reproduction of its own identity. The functions and structures in the anabolic compartment, that is the pro­ processes that produce primary energy sources are outside of the duction and consumption of goods and services in the economy. control of the dissipative structure and the processes that use Unfortunately, as we will illustrate in the next section, none of these secondary energy for reproducing its identity are under the insights from non-equilibrium thermodynamics are currently used in the control of the dissipative structure. discussion of energy policies. These insights therefore represent “un­ (2) A dissipative structure is generated by an autocatalytic loop (it is known knowns”. The energy discourse still appears to be informed by a subject to a chicken-egg paradox). This means that it must set of relatively simplistic, predicative, out-of-context definitions (e.g., already have an amount of secondary energy (energy carriers) ham is a secondary form of food energy for humans whose quantity can under its control to exploit primary energy sources. For example, be measured in kcal per kg independently from the religious identity of humans must have carbohydrates, proteins, and other nutrients the consumer) and the quantitative analysis is still based on fixed pro­ carriers (food energy carriers) in their body, to be able to exploit tocols and flat conversions ratios applied to linear input/output repre­ agricultural processes such as the required biological activity of sentations of energy transformations. cereals, vegetables, and animals (primary energy sources) to get food. As for the energy sector, it must have available and use 4. Unknown knowns in the energy policy domain in the EU secondary energy (e.g., fuels, electricity) to exploit primary en­ ergy sources (e.g., oil fields, wind, hydropower) to generate a In this section we elaborate three examples from the energy policy stable supply of secondary energy (e.g., fuels, electricity). domain, focusing on knowledge claims. They are based on case studies (3) The conceptualization of non-equilibrium thermodynamics en­ from the MAGIC project and draw on the insights from non-equilibrium tails that there is an impredicative relation between: (1) what we thermodynamics presented in the previous section (Section 3.2). The define as energy carriers used inside the system; and (2) what we case studies were selected because of their relevance for current energy define as primary energy sources supplied by the environment. As policy in the EU and because of the evident availability of alternative explained by Cottrell [55], it is the type of activity carried out knowledge claims. inside the autocatalytic loop by the dissipative structure that de­ fines “the identity of energy carriers” and “the identity of primary 4.1. Energy efficiency energy sources”. For example, hay is a primary source for a cow (determined by her physiology) allowing the cow to generate its A particularly problematic set of narratives in the energy policy internal nutrient energy carriers. However, hay is not a primary domain concerns the idea that increases in “efficiency” are effective energy source for a fox. The biomass of rabbits is a form of pri­ solutions to reduce the consumption of secondary energy (energy mary energy source for a fox. Electricity is an energy carrier for a saving) and related emissions (e.g., [56]). In this example, we will show refrigerator but not for the present fleet of airliners. Even ham (a that we are dealing here with an extremely complex concept—energy form of food energy that could be used by humans), depending on efficiency—being addressed with simplistic indicators derived from the the path dependent definition of identity of the dissipative field of energy (resource) economics. structure, may or may not represent an energy carrier: it is food Returning to the history of energy analysis, it is worth noting that energy for a Christian but not for an Islamic consumer. Carnot, who developed the quantitative definition of thermodynamic (4) To analyze the performance of energy transformations within efficiency for thermal engines, ends his seminal book ‘Reflections of the dissipative structures it is essential to adopt the concept of end- motive power of fire and on machine fitted to develop that power’ [57] uses. In fact, the conversion of primary energy sources (outside by cautioning that the thermodynamic indicator of efficiency he pro­ human control) into secondary energy carriers (under human posed should be considered as just one of the possible criteria of per­ control) requires not only the presence of these energy forms but formance useful for guiding action, and not even a good one: “We should also the supply of additional inputs. That is, to have purposive not expect ever to utilize in practice all the motive power of combusti­ energy transformations you need energy converters (e.g., mus­ bles. The attempts made to attain this result would be far more harmful than cles, engines, technology) and controls (e.g., humans with useful if they caused other important considerations to be neglected. The appropriated know-how to guide the conversions). These energy economy [efficiency] of the combustible is only one of the conditions to converters and controls do have an energetic cost because they be fulfilled in heat-engines. In many cases it is only secondary. It should must be produced, repaired, and adapted in time. For this reason, often give precedence to safety, to strength, to the durability of the we can define metabolic systems (the more elaborate class of engine, to the small space which it must occupy, to small cost of dissipative structures) as being organized into two functional installation, etc.” [57] [p. 59, emphasis added]. The modesty of Carnot 5 M. Giampietro and S.G.F. Bukkens Energy Research & Social Science 91 (2022) 102739 in defining the relevance of the indicator of efficiency he developed is in carriers. As a matter of fact, in his 1865 book The Coal Question, stark contrast with the words of the EU Commissioner for Energy: “En­ William Stanley Jevons [63] (a very important figure in the eco­ ergy efficiency is a key concept in the fight against climate change. Being nomic discipline!) warned about the expectations associated with more efficient will immediately cut our emissions, ease the pressure on improvements of energy efficiency. Indeed, he correctly anticipated, the environment and reduce the need for energy and other resources to in what is now known as the “Jevons paradox”, that increasing the support our way of life” [58]. Indeed, the Keeling curve illustrated in efficiency of steam engines (using coal at that time) would increase Fig. 1, suggests it might not be that simple. rather than decrease coal consumption, since it will multiply the Several epistemological problems limit the usefulness of efficiency possible end-uses of the engine. His argument was straightforward: indicators and our ability to anticipate the effects of changes in increasing the energy efficiency of the use of a resource for a given efficiency: end-use in the catabolic compartment may backfire by generating an increase in end-uses in the anabolic compartment, which grow faster 1. The development of thermodynamics and the growing interest in than the reduction in the losses of the conversion in the catabolic more effective descriptions of the functioning of complex material compartment [64,65]. The same phenomenon has been described as systems has led, already at the beginning of the previous century, to an impredicative relation between the minimum entropy generation an enrichment of the categorization used to generate quantitative principle (the tendency of living systems learning how to be more data [59,60]. More specifically, a biophysical characterization of efficient in expressing internal tasks) and the maximum power systems can be obtained by combining: principle (the tendency of living systems to use the saving obtained i. extensive properties (using quantitative variables referring to by internal increases in efficiency for expanding their adaptability extent/size)—numbers that can be summed, e.g., mass or volume; through their interactions with their context) in theoretical ecology and [66]. Even the economic perception of autocatalytic loops is in ii. intensive properties (using qualitative variables referring to dissonance with the current perception of efficiency in energy policy. qualitative characteristics of the material defined per unit of An economic investment aimed at obtaining a higher return is an size)—numbers that cannot be summed, e.g., temperature or autocatalytic loop in the economic narrative. No economist expects pressure. that an investor, after finding a more profitable economic activity, This distinction is essential when dealing with the analysis of will reduce the original investment to maintain the original level of the characteristics of metabolic systems and their efficiency. return. Nonetheless, this is exactly what the EU Commissioner for Intensive variables are determined by specific flow/fund ratios (e. Energy expects to be the effect of efficiency improvements: the g., the level of consumption per unit of size), flow/flow ratios investor of energy will respond to the increase in efficiency by (input/outputs) or fund/fund ratios (relative sizes of the different reducing energy uses. elements). These are qualitative characteristics observable inside 3. An economy is a classic example of a dissipative system, which must the “black box”, the resulting quantitative values cannot be be open. This entails that assessing the “efficiency of an economy” is summed. Extensive variables are assessments of the size of the extremely tricky. For instance, a comparison of the national “eco­ funds or the size of flows (quantitative characteristics deter­ nomic energy efficiency” of China and the EU is meaningless, it being mining the size of the system or its elements in relation to its a comparison of “apples and oranges” [38,39]. As illustrated in environment) [61,62]. These latter quantities can be summed. several studies carried out in MAGIC, the energy efficiency of a When dealing with changes in metabolic systems it is essential to country strongly depends on the relative contribution of the various simultaneously consider both quantitative and qualitative aspects economic activities to the generation of its GDP and its terms of of the changes. For this reason, efficiency indicators obtained by trade. For example, China has a strong industrial sector—a set of end- calculating flow/flow ratios are irrelevant for sustainability uses demanding large amounts of energy carriers—whereas, most EU analysis. For instance, consider the relation between CO2 emis­ countries are specialized in services and financial operations, i.e., sions and GDP using the equation CO2 = [CO2 / $ of GDP] × [$ of end-uses requiring far less energy carriers and generating a large GDP]. If a decrease in carbon intensity (the first term in the fraction of their GDP [39]. The EU can afford to specialize in services equation) of 30 % results in an increase in GDP (the second term) and financial operations because it externalizes its energy intensive by 60 %, the overall value of CO2 will still go up despite the in­ activities (energy sector, mining, industrial sector) to other econo­ crease in efficiency. The same applies to the variable “emissions mies, like China. In the MAGIC project, it was found that the EU is per capita” if changes in this variable are not considered in using, on an annual basis, the equivalent of more than 120 million combination with changes in “population size”. The growth in worker-equivalents (operating elsewhere) embodied in imported population can compensate a reduction in emission per capita. products [67]. The EU imports roughly 80 % of its primary energy Indeed, it is important to note that not only the quantification of sources [68] and 70 % of the animal feed required to sustain its the concept of “efficiency” in economic narratives is always based agricultural sector [69,70]. In this way, a large amount of energy on intensive variables, but it is associated by default with the idea uses and related emissions (as well as land and labor requirements of “improvement”. This assumption is never supported by a check and associated environmental pressures) is externalized to third on the coherence of predicted changes with the forced relation countries. Obviously, the more the EU externalizes the production of between extensive and intensive characteristics of the system and its goods to other economies, the lower its emissions will be. But its context. Indeed, such a check is impossible because of the should this be considered as an improvement in efficiency? Does it epistemological problems discussed under the points following. solve the problem of climate change? 2. Complex adaptive systems are “becoming systems” [54] to which the 4. Demographic variables are key factors determining the efficiency of ceteris paribus assumption does not apply. If we accept that meta­ a socioeconomic system, a factor totally missed by the current eco­ bolic systems are generated by autocatalytic loops in which sec­ nomic indicators of efficiency. Particularly relevant is the size of the ondary energy is invested in order to get more secondary energy (a dependent population. For example, in the year 2010 China had in its concept very compatible with economic narratives: money spent to economy 1300 h of paid work per capita (i.e., the total number of make money), we should expect that if a system learns how to better hours in the paid work sector divided by the population size), almost use secondary energy carriers in order to get a larger quantity of the double of the 730 h of paid work per capita in the EU [71]. When secondary energy carriers—becoming more efficient in what it comparing the efficiency of these two economies it would be does—the consequence will be the expression of a stronger auto­ important to consider this difference. catalytic loop and not a reduction in the use of secondary energy 6 M. Giampietro and S.G.F. Bukkens Energy Research & Social Science 91 (2022) 102739 5. Last but certainly not least, the role of credit leverage is not locked modern societies in a set of social practices associated with a considered in current energy efficiency assessments. For example, in characteristic pace and density of energy flows that is simply out of the the period 2009–2015, at the global level, credit leverage (debt) has reach of a supply of secondary energy carriers based on the set of end- grown more than the GDP of the global economy [72]. Most of this uses needed to produce biofuels [74]. Proposing now, in a post- debt was created in developed societies, such as in the EU, where the industrial society, to reduce the dependence on fossil energy by using import of goods is greatly helped by the continuous printing of more land, labor and power capacity in the primary sectors seems an money and consequent boosting of the financial sector. In this way, unpractical idea. Smil [75] has analyzed this issue from the perspective the generation of added value is no longer associated with bio­ of the differences in density between requirement (end-uses) and supply physical processes of production and consumption, i.e., we deal with (primary energy sources) in space. His self-explanatory analysis is the creation of “virtual added value”. In this situation the meaning of shown in Fig. 3. the concept of efficiency can no longer be related to the character­ The differences in power density between biofuel, fossil energy and istics of energy transformations. urban uses in Fig. 3 are so large that it requires the use of a logarithmic scale. This huge difference explains why before the Industrial Revolu­ 4.2. Biofuels: if the people do not have bread, let them eat cake tion urban population was below 10 % of the total population all over the planet and why urban population exploded due to the increasing Considering the performance of biofuel production from a metabolic consumption of fossil energy. perspective, it becomes clear that we are dealing with an end-use Regarding the second problem, an excessive requirement of end-uses expressed for producing secondary energy carriers of extremely low in the primary sectors of the economy would reduce the fraction of end- quality. Two macroscopic problems with this end-use are evident to uses in the anabolic (“consumptive”) compartment and hence reduce the those willing to see them: (1) the low density of the primary sources used strength of the autocatalytic loop in the metabolic pattern. In fact, it is in to produce biomass (translating into a large requirement of land for this the anabolic compartment that the EU generates the vast majority of its end-use); and (2) the resulting low productivity of the inputs used in the GDP (more than 90 %), through the combined activities of production end-use (requirement of labor, power capacity, secondary energy car­ and consumption in the industrial, service and household sectors [61]. riers per unit of net supply), when compared with other end-uses pro­ These end-uses of the anabolic compartment concern activities that use ducing liquid fuels. It should be noted that in 1945 Samuel Brody (an secondary energy (energy carriers) to produce and consume goods and expert of energy conversions in agriculture) observed about this idea: “it services. Increasing the amount of human time and resources invested in is said that we should use alcohol and vegetable oils after the petroleum the catabolic compartment (energy, mining and agriculture), just for energy has been exhausted. This reminds one of Marie Antoinette's producing energy, mineral and food commodities, would generate a advice to the Paris poor to eat cake when they had no bread” [73] (p. reduction in the amount of generated added value (both in absolute 968). terms and in relation to the required investments) and therefore As for the first problem, it is relevant to recall the recent evolutionary generate an unbearable opportunity cost for the economy [61]. No trajectory of modern societies. The fossil energy revolution made it developed country derives a significant fraction of its GDP from nor possible to dramatically reduce the dependence on land, labor, and invests a significant share of its work force in either the agricultural or power capacity (end-uses) in the energy and agricultural sector (cata­ energy sector (catabolic compartment). Indeed, with few exceptions (e. bolic compartment) by using fossil oil rather than biomass. This phe­ g., countries with large and easily accessible domestic oil reserves—the nomenon, known in the present day as “the Industrial Revolution”, oil exporter countries), primary sectors in developed countries generally Fig. 3. A comparison between the density of the flows of supply (primary sources) and requirement (secondary carriers) when considering fossil energy, biomass, and biofuels. Figure adapted from [75] (Figs. 5.2 and 5.3). 7 M. Giampietro and S.G.F. Bukkens Energy Research & Social Science 91 (2022) 102739 require substantial subsidy support to survive economically. wires by the strength of the electric potential (measured in watts)—in In conclusion, the analysis of EU policies of biofuels done in MAGIC the analogy this would be the mechanical power made available to those reveals a profound lack of understanding of the biophysical roots of the using the flow of water coming out of the pipe. economy (i.e., the societal metabolism of energy). Adopting basic Given these characteristics of electricity, we can distinguish two non- principles from non-equilibrium thermodynamics—i.e., metabolic equivalent definitions of “viability” (interpreted as the ability of pattern associated with an autocatalytic loop of energy forms—we find matching supply and requirement) for electricity. In the first one, we can that the substitution of fossil energy fuels with biofuels produced in the define a biophysical viability referring to the ability of stabilizing the EU is neither viable nor feasible. For instance, all the secondary energy distribution of electric power in the grid at any moment in space and in consumed in a year by one EU citizen is currently supplied by only 8 h of time in terms of supply and consumption of electric charges at a given labor in the energy sector in that year [39]. If the energy sector would power level. In the second one, we can define an economic viability have to produce biofuels (rather than simply process fossil energy referring to the formation of prices in response to the choices made by products), the energy productivity of labor in the sector would plummet, economic actors to match the “end uses” associated with both produc­ from GJ/h of net supply of secondary energy carriers to MJ/h [74]. tion (supply) and use (demand) of electricity. In relation to biophysical The quality check in MAGIC has shown that “scientific evidence” viability, without buffer storage, if you wish to have water flowing in a used for informing biofuel policy is often based on blunders. An pipe you must simultaneously have: someone putting water in it, and, outstanding example is given by the policy supporting the production of someone else getting the water out of it. That is, if an end-use requiring biodiesel from used cooking oil. This end-use does not rely on a primary electricity (e.g., air conditioner) is not ready to use the electricity when source (such as biomass) but on a tertiary flow (a recycled feedstock) to it is produced (e.g., the electricity from a windmill park), the produced produce biofuel. However, adopting a metabolic perspective, we can electricity must be converted into a different energy form to store it or calculate that the limit of what can be produced with this end-use, curtailed. looking at the availability of this recycled flow, is extraordinarily low. Final consumers, paying “electricity”, express their preferences About 4 kg of used cooking oil is available per capita per year in through a variety of end-uses associated with consuming “electricity” Europe—recycled from the 6–8 kg of cooking oil consumed per capita that is expected to be biophysically viable. Different is the situation of per year in the food system [32]. Considering the energy losses when those producing “electricity”. They have a perception of costs and converted to biodiesel, we can at best obtain about 2 kg of biodiesel per benefits that refers only to their specific set of end-uses (technologies) capita per year [32]. This supply represents less than 1 % of the diesel needed to transform a given quantity of primary sources (nuclear fuel, currently consumed per capita in the EU. Not surprisingly, large solar radiation captured by photovoltaic, natural gas) into a given amounts of biodiesel produced in Europe are obtained from imported quantity of energy carrier (kWh supplied to the grid). That is, individual used cooking oil. Even if we were to assume that the process of power plants are not concerned with providing biophysically viable importing and recycling used cooking oil was economically viable, it electricity, and therefore, when coming to the stabilization of bio­ would not solve the EU's dependence on the import of energy sources. As physically viable electricity in the grid, they are not in competition with shown in [32], EU policy encouraging the production of used cooking oil each other. From this perspective, the narrative of formation of prices to replace first-generation biofuels (finally deemed unsustainable) has does not have anything concrete to do with the phenomena determining led to fraud (used cooking oil being in reality palm oil) that could have the biophysical viability of flows of electric charges. In relation to the been anticipated with simple back of the envelope calculations on its demand of electricity consumers may be private households, industries, feasibility. or hospitals. This mix of consumers express different preferences asso­ EU policies for biofuel production have changed in time as expla­ ciated to their own end uses and have a different option space for nation narratives have become increasingly difficult to uphold in view of adjusting their patterns of consumption. Producers may be a mix of the dominant justifications (rural development, guaranteeing security of operators of different types of power plants (including very large and energy supply, reducing emissions). Consequently, biofuel targets have very small), with different perceptions of costs and benefits and different been patched accordingly in the various amendments to the directives. time lags in relation to adjustments in their supply and their power The only plausible justification for the continuous expenditure on first capacity. It is important to reflect on the fact that these consumers and generation biofuels, found between the lines in EU documents, is “to producers are not dealing with the same commodity “electricity”. The protect the investors operating in this sector” [32,76]. It should be noted kWh paid by the consumers are “biophysically viable electricity”, that in the last text of the European Green Deal [77], the term biofuels is whereas the kWh sold by producers are mere inputs of electric charges not even mentioned. The clear incoherence among justifications, that still must be blended and harmonized in the grid. normative choices and explanations casts doubts on the quality of the Framing the issue in this way, we can immediately detect a systemic process of decision-making adopted thus far in this policy domain. problem with the biophysical viability of the class of end-uses producing electricity from intermittent primary sources: they may produce elec­ 4.3. Decarbonization of electricity: the difference between electric power, tricity when it is not needed, and they may not produce electricity when end-uses, power capacity and storage capacity it is needed. In other words, not all kWh generated are the same when considering biophysical and economic viability—they do not have the This last case concerns the current narrative on the issue of decar­ same value. There are storage solutions that can convert electricity into bonization of electricity, in which “electricity” is conceptualized as a chemical energy such as batteries or hydrogen fuel, or into mechanical- mere energy commodity regulable by the market [33]. In the biophys­ gravitational energy such as pumped-hydro. However, without the ical reading of the issue, on the other hand, “electricity” is a special form availability of large-scale storage capacity, intermittent end-uses do not of secondary energy—historically called vis electrica because it cannot be have the same usefulness for running the grid as traditional end-uses. stored as such. The movement of electric charges within wires is com­ Having stated the former, we can now clarify the confusion over parable to the movement of water in pipelines. As in the case of water different concepts essential to understanding the existing predicament flows, three factors determine the flow of electricity in the grid: (1) the experienced with the attempt of a large-scale integration of intermittent amount of electric charges (measured in amperes)—in the analogy this sources of electricity (solar and wind) into existing grids. We can would be the amount of flowing water; (2) the electric potential driving distinguish between four factors: (1) the quantity of electric power that the movement of the charges (measured in volts)—in the analogy this is distributed in the grid (produced and used at any moment), a concept would be the pressure applied to the water; and (3) the electric power associated with biophysical viability; (2) the mix of different end-uses output that can be put to use by those getting the electricity out from the expressed by those producing and using electricity (referring to grid, determined by multiplying the quantity of charges moving in the different types of technology and social practices), a concept associated 8 M. Giampietro and S.G.F. Bukkens Energy Research & Social Science 91 (2022) 102739 with economic viability. These end-uses can be changed by the market analyses of the Commission [78]. Again, by looking at the set of relations mechanism, but at a slow pace. Changes in patterns of production and illustrated in Fig. 2 we cannot but conclude that, also in this case, the consumption of electricity are not determined by changes in “consumer process of selection of knowledge claims used to inform policy seems to behavior” but by changes in social practices; (3) the amount of power have been poor. capacity and infrastructures associated with the different end-uses A last observation about this example is that any narrative about supplying secondary energy carriers in the form of electric power; and “success solutions” must be contextualized. The distinction between (4) the amount of storage capacity available in the grid to compensate baseload, peak and intermittent electricity is not the sole key factor in mismatches between supply and consumption. The latter factor is the understanding the nature of the problem of decarbonizing electricity. missing character in the existing storytelling about the decarbonization The scale of the system and its geographic location are equally impor­ of electricity supply. Storage capacity can dramatically change the tant. For example, the success of Denmark in utilizing decarbonized usefulness of intermittent sources by allowing to store electricity pro­ electricity is due to its relatively small size and location. There are duced when it is not needed and release electricity when required in multiple weeks during the year in which Denmark imports 60–80 % of excess of the available supply. However, for the moment we do not have the electricity it consumes—i.e., peak electricity, imported when needed large scale solutions. [33]. Denmark has the possibility to do so because it is a small economy Reflecting on the problems experienced with the Energiewende in located by Norway and Sweden, which have enormous hydropower Germany, a MAGIC study [33] explored the forced relation of congru­ capacity and can easily dispatch their surplus to Denmark when needed. ence between these four different factors in the electric grid of Germany This option is unavailable to, for example, Germany or Poland, because (in addition to that of Spain). The graph presented in Fig. 4 clearly shows of the much larger size of their economies, their geographic location that the common belief that “when the cost of the kWh of alternative and, perhaps, geopolitical constraints. sources will be lower than that of the conventional sources, the con­ ventional producers will be forced out of the market” is simply not true. 5. The quality of the process of decision-making in the energy Power capacity related to intermittent sources grew dramatically in policy domain Germany, but the size of power capacity related to conventional sources remained largely unaffected. Due to a lack of an adequate storage ca­ In this section we explore why the knowledge claims presented in pacity, conventional sources are still needed to guarantee biophysical Section 4 represent unknown knowns in the decision-making process. To viability. As a matter of fact, before the arrival of alternative electric this purpose, we return to the framework presented in Fig. 2 and look at sources, the cost of producing electricity with “baseload end-uses” and the coherence among justifications, normative solutions, and explana­ “peak end-uses” was different, and still the two types of end-uses tions. However, it should be noted that, as explained in Section 3, the (techniques of production) coexisted without there being an issue. inherent elusive nature of the concept of energy and the highly In conclusion, the problem of a large-scale integration of intermittent specialized scientific jargon of the field of thermodynamics of non- sources of electricity in the existing typology of centralized grid lies with equilibrium constitute part of the problem. the lack of storage capacity and not with the “right” price of kWh. This entails that, if we do not have adequate storage capacity, further in­ 5.1. The choice of justifications – the weight of the political imperative vestments in power capacity with the goal of harvesting variable renewable energy sources (windfarms and photovoltaic plants) will not In the 1970s, Habermas [79] predicted a systemic legitimation only fail to solve the problem of the decarbonization of energy but may problem in those “social welfare state-mass democracies” basing their worsen the situation by increasing costs and stressing the grid. An in­ justification on the claim that the state can guarantee a life without crease in installed power capacity (GW) is not an applaudable stress to their constituencies. This perceived need to simultaneously achievement if it is not linked to an equivalent stable increase in the solve all the sustainability challenges of society is evident in the justi­ amount of electricity produced and consumed in the grid. Boasting of fication given for the “Clean energy for all Europeans” package [80], increasing investments in renewable power generation capacity while namely: (1) reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, and (2) increased this capacity is not utilized is simply a sign of poor understanding of the energy security (a more secure and diversified energy supply), and (3) problem to be solved. Unfortunately, a large-scale increase of storage economic growth, creation of jobs, and increased competitiveness, and capacity based on batteries can further result problematic in relation to (4) inclusiveness and justness. In addition, the text explicitly states that the limited availability of critical material. A point acknowledged by the clean energy transition must benefit everyone—no EU citizen or re­ gion should be left behind. This last goal is taken a step further in the European Green Deal [81]. We deal here with an overlap of two different types of justifications: i. Because institutions need legitimacy, they must solve simultaneously all the different sustainability concerns identified as relevant. This type of justification calls for an endorsement of “rosy scenarios” in which it is possible to deliver panacea solutions capable of solving all the problems at once. ii. Because relevant problems must be solved, each proposed policy solution should be able to address, one at the time, specific concerns. This type of justification calls for an exploration of the potential drawbacks of proposed solutions to avoid blunders. Adopting these two types of justifications simultaneously spells trouble for the process of decision-making. In fact, it poses a dilemma associated with the existence of trade-offs across different policy sol­ utions—e.g., solving the problem of how to reduce the use of fossil en­ Fig. 4. Changes in time (1992–2018) of electricity generation (red) and ergy may aggravate the problem of how to sustain economic growth. different types of power capacity (conventional: grey; intermittent: green; other Returning to Fig. 2, we thus see that an ideological bias in the pri­ renewables: blue) in Germany (adapted from [33]). oritization of the concerns to be addressed (coming from the left side) 9 M. Giampietro and S.G.F. Bukkens Energy Research & Social Science 91 (2022) 102739 imposes a filter on the knowledge claims admissible from the right. This assessment, cost-benefit analysis, climate modelling are designed to specific problem has been identified by Anne Glover, at that time chief facilitate management and control, even in areas of high uncertainty” (p. scientific adviser to the president of the European Commission, who 238). This facilitation is obtained by simplifications of a given issue into said: “when selecting scientific evidence, it is difficult to keep separated a sealed “epistemic box”. The choice of a particular epistemic box evidence-gathering processes from the “political imperative”” (the necessarily generates unknown knowns in the discussion. As mentioned Guardian, 2014). Rayner [9] refers to this phenomenon as uncomfort­ previously, many policy decisions tend to be made on the basis of what able knowledge, which he defined as: “To make sense of the complexity has been called “policy based evidence”, rather than “evidence based of the world so that they can act, individuals and institutions need to policy” [83,86]. This phenomenon is particularly relevant in energy develop simplified, self-consistent versions of that world. The process of policy and energy modeling [87] and deserves more attention given its doing so means that much of what is known about the world needs to be destabilizing effect on the “normal” operation of the decision-making excluded from those versions, and in particular that knowledge which is process [31,88–90]. For instance, Giampietro and Funtowicz [91] in tension or outright contradiction with those versions must be have argued that an uncritical mobilization of expectations based on expunged. This is uncomfortable knowledge”. Hence, uncomfortable simplified assumptions about how to solve problems undermines the knowledge is knowledge that must be suppressed, in policy discussions, scientific quality of the process of policymaking because: (1) assump­ for the “common good”, i.e., to make the discussion manageable. The tions are taken for granted and no longer subject to critical appraisal concept of uncomfortable knowledge helps explain the systemic neglect [92,93]; (2) no longer is there space for reflection or a genuine social of the alternative knowledge claims presented in Section 4. Indeed, the discussion of the option space for solving the problems to be addressed poor representation of an essentially biophysical problem (energy is­ [94–96]; and (3) the resulting unanimity about the solution to be sues) by the specific disciplinary domain of energy (resource) economics adopted is used to justify large investments in technological innovations (right side in Fig. 2) makes it easier to avoid a critical appraisal of [95]. In this situation the systemic bias against uncomfortable knowl­ selected solutions. edge leads to the selection of “bogus explanations” (associated with the formation of policy legends) that are instrumental for the stabilization of 5.2. The choice of solutions: irresponsible management of expectations the establishment (see Fig. 2). As shown in Section 4, the quantitative analyses that have been used to support current policies of decarbon­ The very strong pressure on the institutions for solving all our sus­ ization, biofuels and renewable electricity are at best “not sufficiently tainability problems at once pushes them toward the search for “panacea robust” to inform policy. solutions” rather than “practical solutions”. Indeed, EU energy policy A complexity revolution requires a radical change in the use of sci­ discussions appear to have fallen into the attractor of unrealistic visions ence in the process of decision-making. In particular, the results of the of the future based on unrealistic technological solutions. The concept of MAGIC project suggest the need to move away from the concept of socio-technical imaginaries is helpful here. Socio-technical imaginaries, “evidence-based policy”—used to individuate “the best course of present in any society, are defined as “collectively held, institutionally action”—toward the concept of “quantitative storytelling”—used to stabilized, and publicly performed visions of desirable futures, animated check the quality of the narratives used to select policies. When the by shared understandings of forms of social life and social order policy discussion remains locked inside a given epistemic box, it is attainable through, and supportive of, advances in science and tech­ impossible to check the connection between the chosen solution and the nology” [82]. However, it is essential that these socio-technical imagi­ original set of different concerns to be addressed. “The deepening of the naries are not based on unrealistic visions of the future and unrealistic analysis corresponding to a single view of what the problem is, has the technological solutions. Otherwise, the discussions over policies in the effect of distracting from what could be alternative readings” [88] [p. energy sector would be restrained to “technical issues” and would no 62]. The case studies presented here show that very often the plausibility longer be considered as political issues [4,11–13,83]. While solving in­ and desirability of proposed policies is simply assumed even though, in dividual energy concerns leads to policy confrontations, solving all the most of the cases, this assumption can be shown incorrect. problems of sustainability at once is an easy recipe for reaching consensus. This entails that, on the political side of the decision-making 5.4. The social construction of ignorance: the “ancient regime” attractor process, implausible imaginaries are essential for handling the contra­ dictions (or the plain impossibility) of achieving multiple and con­ The results of MAGIC's QST case studies represented a “problem” for trasting objectives, e.g., continued economic growth, quick reduction of the EU institutions with which MAGIC interacted. Indeed, it was difficult emissions, quick reduction of (fossil) energy imports, protection of to openly discuss the findings in official workshops or meetings [97,98]. marginal social actors, and so forth [84]. In a context like the EU, in In the four years of interaction between the MAGIC consortium and the which different member states operate in different situations and adopt European Commission, its Agencies, and the EU Parliament, we expe­ different priorities, a smooth integration and coherence over communal rienced marked differences in their reaction to “uncomfortable knowl­ policies can only be obtained in relation to implausible imaginary so­ edge”. Politicians (EU Parliament) were interested in the existence of lutions. “In this context, the role of innovation is ‘cutting the Gordian “unknown knowns” useful for informing their political activity. On the Knot’ of the policy nexus, regardless of whether the actual technological contrary, public functionaries of the EU (EC and the Agencies) cannot solution will ever be delivered and implemented” [84]. This strategy opinionate in public on the plausibility of existing policies (even if they leads to the selection of policies that do not have the required fitness for may agree in private that they are not plausible). Indeed, the same EU purpose. The lock-in on the discussion over carbon taxes and tradable institution that funded the MAGIC research project to check the quality permits, the stubbornness in supporting policies endorsing biofuels, and of the process of policymaking was unwilling (or incapable) to openly the problematic operation of the electric market used as a tool for discuss the findings [97]. It seems that within governmental institutions, integrating intermittent electric sources in centralized grids are all ex­ uncomfortable knowledge must be ignored because it is perceived as a amples of implausible solutions that are adopted based on a poor threat to the legitimacy of the institution. Funtowicz and Ravetz [5] framing of the problems to be solved. refer to this as the ancient regime syndrome. Especially in a situation in which the establishment is facing a series of sustainability challenges for 5.3. The choice of explanations: avoiding the trap of epistemic boxes which there are no practical and painless solutions (e.g., Ukraine war), it is difficult for institutions to address the existence of uncomfortable When science is used to support a strategy of legitimation of in­ knowledge and to admit that there are problems for which panacea stitutions, it becomes difficult to trust the scientific evidence used in the solutions do not exist. This is an important finding requiring further process. Jasanoff [85] notes that predictive methods such as “risk reflection by the general scientific community as this phenomenon 10 M. Giampietro and S.G.F. Bukkens Energy Research & Social Science 91 (2022) 102739 makes it easier for lobbies to put a spin on the scientific advice coming substitute fossil energy fuels; the market can smoothly integrate from experts on the frontier of regulatory capture [99]. different technologies for producing electricity. Uncomfortable knowledge (the existence of unpleasant unknown 2. The idea that the various concerns identified in EU energy policy can knowns) tends to be kept out from the discussion within specific policy be solved simultaneously is unrealistic. This idea can only persist by domains through a variety of mechanisms, including selective research virtue of banishing uncomfortable knowledge and the creation of funding (e.g., innovation actions), the curriculum of higher education implausible socio-technical imaginaries. When considering different (there are no programs in energetics or biophysical economics) and aspects of the problem and integrating different narratives and expert selection for advisory functions. As for the latter, it is interesting knowledge claims, a smooth and painless transition to a zero-carbon to note that out of the nine members of the High-Level Panel of the economy in a few decades seems unlikely. European Decarbonization Pathways Initiative (a panel operating dur­ 3. An informed policy discussion on the renewable energy transition ing the MAGIC project), only two were educated in natural sciences—­ would require the expansion of the types of experts providing advice, physics of the atmosphere and chemistry. All the others were trained or including experts of metabolic analysis studying the implications of experienced in economics, finance, insurance, business management autocatalytic loops of energy forms. These experts are currently not and/or politics. It is not our intent, as the authors of this article, to readily available. Given that energy is an elusive but ubiquitous question the quality of the report these individuals produced [100]. concept, the study of energetics in higher education should receive However, to identify decarbonization pathways answering the question: more attention. “Which strategy should be adopted in research and innovation in order to speed-up and foster mitigation policies in the EU that respond to the The existence of all these problems shows the need for a conceptual goals of the Paris Agreement, while growing the competitiveness of the change in the policymaking process. As stated by the MAGIC project, it is EU economy?”, it could reasonably have been expected to find a few high time to move from a strategy of governance OF complexity (e.g., experts of energetics among the members of the panel. It is not that such solving the problems with simplistic analysis generating implausible experts do not exist. socio-technical imaginaries) to a strategy of governance IN complexity (e.g., analyzing the different aspects of the problem considering the co- 6. Conclusions existence of non-equivalent legitimate concerns and relevant storytell­ ing). The strategy of decisions based on “evidence-based policy” should In this paper, we have shown the existence of pertinent knowledge be replaced by a strategy based on the concept of “quantitative story­ claims, most derived from the theoretical concepts developed in non- telling” involving in the quality check a variety of social actors carrying equilibrium thermodynamics, for informing energy policy that have different types of expertise and different legitimate concerns while not been considered in the current formulation of solutions for current exploring the implications of all available knowledge claims. The energy concerns. As shown by the case studies, these unknown knowns experience of MAGIC has shown that quantitative storytelling can sup­ include: (i) the Jevons paradox and a more complex reading of the port this transition by providing a procedure for checking the robust­ concept of efficiency in relation to EU decarbonization strategies based ness, usefulness and fairness of the narratives used to discuss, select, and on increasing energy efficiency; (ii) the factors determining the feasi­ evaluate policies. bility, viability and desirability of the metabolic pattern of human so­ ciety (low density of flows, low productivity of labor, high internal Declaration of competing interest requirement of end-uses) in relation to biofuels and the decarbonization of the transport sector; (iii) a biophysical reading of the functioning of The authors declare that they have no known competing financial the electric grid that entails that not all kWh are the same and that, interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence therefore, the market alone will not necessarily solve the problem of the the work reported in this paper. integration of different types of electricity production in relation to alternative sources of electricity. Data availability The case studies presented do not claim to present the “truth” about a given energy issue—i.e., scientific evidence—nor that the quantifica­ No data was used for the research described in the article. tions used in the presented storytelling are uncontested or uncon­ testable. When dealing with wicked issues, all numbers can always be Acknowledgements calculated in a different way and any choice of narrative is always contested. The usefulness of QST is about exploring the existence of This article is a synthesis of the findings of the Horizon 2020 project alternative stories about given policy issues that can help to check the “Moving Towards Adaptive Governance in Complexity: Informing Nexus quality of the original framing and to enrich the diversity of insights. The Security” (MAGIC) in the policy domain of energy. It could not possibly adoption of different perceptions of the problem framing and related exist without the efforts and insights of the MAGIC consortium, and in solution(s) can flag relevant information about specific policy issues that particular, the authors of the different case studies referred to in the does exist in some disciplinary knowledge but that is not considered by paper. MAGIC was funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 the chosen (official) storytelling (i.e., unknown knowns). research and innovation program under grant agreement no. 689669. Using the conceptual framework developed in the MAGIC project for The authors also wish to acknowledge financial support by the gov­ quality checking policy narratives in the energy domain also showed the ernment of Catalonia (AGAUR) under grant agreement 2017-SGR-230, existence of a set of systemic problems that explain the inertia of the and the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (MICINN) through energetic predicament in the EU: the “María de Maeztu” program for Units of Excellence (CEX2019- 000940-M). This work reflects the authors' view only; the funding 1. The current hegemonic use of economic narratives in the discussion agencies are not responsible for any use that may be made of the in­ of energy policies and the consequent endorsement of simplistic formation it contains. Finally, yet importantly, the authors would like to analysis (explanations) for representing the nature of the energy thank the anonymous reviewers, Ansel Renner, Silvio Funtowicz, Tom­ concerns (problems) to be addressed has led to the systemic adoption maso Luzzati, and Jesús Ramos-Martín for their useful comments and of implausible assumptions about the validity of the proposed pol­ suggestions. icies in the EU energy policy domain, i.e., improvements in energy efficiency will lead to the reduction of emissions; biofuels can 11 M. Giampietro and S.G.F. Bukkens Energy Research & Social Science 91 (2022) 102739 References [31] L.J. Di Felice, A. Renner, M. Giampietro, Why should the EU implement electric vehicles? Viewing the relationship between evidence and dominant policy solutions through the lens of complexity, Environ. Sci. 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