Regional Environmental Change (2023) 23:14 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-022-01981-5 ORIGINAL ARTICLE Local reports of climate change impacts in Sierra Nevada, Spain: sociodemographic and geographical patterns David García‑del‑Amo1 · Peter Graham Mortyn1,2 · Victoria Reyes‑García1,3 Received: 12 October 2020 / Accepted: 31 August 2022 © The Author(s) 2022 Abstract While we know that climate change is having different impacts on various ecosystems and regions of the world, we know less how the perception of such impacts varies within a population. In this study, we examine patterns of individual variation in climate change impacts reports using data from a sample (n = 238) drawn from 33 mountainous municipalities of Sierra Nevada, Spain. Sierra Nevada inhabitants report multiple climate change impacts, being the most frequently reported changes in snowfall and snow cover, abundance of terrestrial fauna, freshwater availability, and extreme temperatures. Reports of climate change impacts vary according to informants’ sociodemographic characteristics and geographical location. People with life-long bonds with the environment and higher connection and dependence upon ecosystem services report more cli- mate change impacts than other informants, as do people with lower level of schooling. We also found that reports of climate change impacts vary according to geographic areas, which reinforces the idea that climate change generates differentiated impacts even at small geographical scales. Understanding intracultural variation in reports of climate change impacts not only gives an enriched picture of the human dimensions of climate change but might also help design more targeted mitiga- tion and adaptation responses. Keywords Climate change impacts · Local ecological knowledge · Local perception · Mountain region Introduction 2019a, b, 2021). In the same way, people with different soci- odemographic characteristics are also unevenly affected by Climate change is generating unevenly distributed impacts climate impacts, with communities who directly depend on across different ecosystems and regions of the world. Thus, natural resources for their daily subsistence being dispro- polar regions, low-lying coasts, deserts, small islands, and portionally impacted (IPBES 2019; IPCC 2022). Among the mountains, are considered hotspots of vulnerability (IPCC groups considered more directly affected by climate change impacts, a great deal of research attention has gone to Indig- enous Peoples and local communities (IPLC). Communicated by Virginia Burkett Indigenous and local knowledge (ILK) systems, some- times developed over hundreds of years through a history * David García‑del‑Amo David.Garcia.delamo@uab.cat of interdependencies and co-evolution between people and nature, situate IPLC as first-hand witnesses of climate Peter Graham Mortyn Graham.Mortyn@uab.cat change impacts in their local environments, and this knowl- edge can be particularly relevant in areas where there is a Victoria Reyes‑García Victoria.Reyes@uab.cat lack of local instrumental data (Hock et al. 2019; Olsson et al. 2019). Several works have showed the wealth of over- 1 Institut de Ciència I Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat lapping of instrumental measurements of climate change Autònoma de Barcelona, Columnes S/N. Building ICTA‑IPC impacts and IPLC perception of those impacts, but also that (Z) UAB Campus, 08193 Bellaterra ‑ Barcelona, Spain ILK systems can contribute with more detailed and new 2 Department of Geography, Universitat Autònoma de information not detected by instrumental measurements Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra ‑ Barcelona, Spain (Fassnacht et al. 2018; Hu et al. 2020; Sharafi et al. 2021; 3 Institució Catalana de Recerca I Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain 13 Vol.:(0123456789) 14 Page 2 of 16 Regional Environmental Change (2023) 23:14 Wilson et al. 2021). Oral histories, proverbs, seasonal calen- et al. 2019; Payne et al. 2020). Observed climate change dars, hunting and fishing routes, and other cultural expres- impacts in mountain biological systems include vertical dis- sions rooted on ILK can provide historical former conditions placement of species towards mountaintops and declining of environmental state useful to assess local climate change species diversity (Bani et al. 2019; Lehikoinen et al. 2019; impacts (Janif et al. 2016; Cochran et al. 2016; Hurlbert et al. Hansson et al. 2021), changes in species composition (Roth 2019; IPBES 2019; Meredith et al. 2019; Garteizgogeascoa et al. 2014; Duque et al. 2015), and phenological changes et al. 2020). ILK is also being recognized as a fundamen- among others (Maikhuri et al. 2018; Prevéy et al. 2020). tal source of knowledge in risk management and decision- Additionally, we also focus on mountain areas because local making of environmental impacts—particularly through the populations living in mountain areas have proved to be good involvement of IPLC to improve site-specific understand- observers of climate change impacts. Thus, several works ing of local climate change impacts (Hiwasaki et al. 2014; have shown the advantage of working with local populations Dube and Munsaka 2018; Collins et al. 2019; Sharafi et al. on mountain areas by detecting a great variety and detailed 2021)—as well as in to inform policy and achieve effective climate change impacts in the atmospheric, physical, and social adaptation (Ford et al. 2016; Mapfumo et al. 2017; biological system, but also in aspects of their livelihoods, Hill et al. 2020; Petzold et al. 2020; Schlingmann et al. such as a reduction of the quantity and quality of pastures 2021). Indeed, since the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) (Joshi et al. 2013; Pandey et al. 2018), an increase in crop in 2014, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change pests and livestock diseases (Postigo 2014; Taboada et al. (IPCC) recognizes the importance of drawing on different 2017; Meldrum et al. 2018), or the extent of harvesting times knowledge systems to address climate change (Ford et al. and increasing crop yields (Shijin and Dahe 2015; Wang and 2016; David-Chavez and Gavin 2018), and voices are grow- Cao 2015). ing to recognize IPLC rights and agency in environmental agendas (Stringer et al. 2018; Reyes-García et al. 2021). A major challenge to incorporate IPLC’s perspectives in Methods climate change research and policy lies in the fact that there is not only a plurality and heterogeneity of worldviews, but Study region also an uneven distribution of knowledge and perceptions of climate change impacts across groups. Moreover, individual We conducted research in the Sierra Nevada Natural Space sociodemographic characteristics might shape how people (SNNS), a mountainous range with more than 172,000 hec- within a group perceive and report climate change impacts, tares that runs parallel to the Mediterranean shoreline in the thus generating intracultural variation on reports. Indeed, south-east of Spain. Given its orographic variation, SNNS as other types of knowledge, individual reports of climate presents a great variety of ecological conditions (Castillo change impacts can be shaped by a diversity of factors that Martín 1999; Raso Nadal 2011). The region is one of the mediate how a person relates to the environment. Such fac- most important European hotspots for biodiversity (Blanca tors range from geographical location (e.g., the area mainly et al. 1998; Pérez-Luque et al. 2015), which has resulted in used by a person) to demographic (e.g., the sex of a person) its protection under the designation of Biosphere Reserve or socio-economic factors (e.g., the economic activities that (1986), Natural Park (1989), and National Park (1999). the person conducts in iteration with the natural environ- Given its geographical location, SNNS provides an ment). Different authors have argued that understanding ideal setting to study the impacts of change, for which, in variation in reports of climate change impacts across people 2007, the Sierra Nevada Global Change Observatory was with different sociodemographic characteristics can improve stablished in the area (Zamora et al. 2016). Data from the climate change adaptation planning (Armah et al. 2015; Col- Sierra Nevada Global Change Observatory shows that, since lins et al. 2019; Hurlbert et al. 2019; Petzold et al. 2020). the 1970s, rainfall and snow extent and persistence have However, there is scant research on what are the factors that decreased (Zamora et al. 2016). Moreover, the combined pattern such variation of reports of climate change impacts. effects of rising temperatures and prolonged droughts have To start filling this research gap, here we document obser- led to shorter ice-cover periods (Pérez-Palazón et al. 2015), vations of climate change impacts reported by people living decreased water level, and warmer waters of high mountain in rural communities in a mountainous region of Spain and lakes (Morales-Baquero et al. 2013). Reduction of snow assess how participants’ sociodemographic characteristics has altered the hydrologic regime of high mountain rivers, and geographical location shape their reports. We focus on affecting also downstream ecosystems and water users (Jódar a mountain area because mountains are hotspots of climate et al. 2017). These changes have also impacted flora and change impacts due to the diversity of ecosystems related to fauna resulting in up-slope range shifts of insects (Menéndez their altitude, narrow zonation hydrologic importance, and et al. 2014), flora composition and distribution (Pauli et al. extreme conditions (Palomo 2017; Zamora et al. 2017; Hock 2012; Fernández Calzado et al. 2012), a decrease in bird 13 Regional Environmental Change (2023) 23:14 Page 3 of 16 14 populations density, and changes in their composition. Spe- advice and are always based on the experience and obser- cies that were dominant in the 1980s in the lower areas of vation of said facts) suggests that people are able to detect the mountain are moving up to higher levels, being replaced climate change impacts (Garteizgogeascoa et al. 2020). by other more generalist species (Zamora and Barea-Azcón 2015). Sampling Human settlements in Sierra Nevada are documented since the Neolithic (Sánchez-Hita 2007), generating intense To capture potential geographical differences in climate landscape modifications since the seventh century (Muslim change impacts at local scale, we conducted a purposive period) through the construction of acequias, i.e., water- sampling in all villages inside the SNNS located over 500 m ditches for the management of meltwater favoring the infil- above sea level (MSL) and with more than 300 inhabitants. tration and recharge of aquifers and increasing soil protec- We excluded villages under 500 MSL because these villages tion against erosion produced by runoff water (Jódar et al. have very different environmental conditions. We grouped 2018; Martos-Rosillo et al. 2019). In the middle of the the selected villages into eight Zones, each Zone encompass- twentieth century, agricultural industrialization and the rural ing 3 to 5 villages in a 10 km radius (Fig. 1). exodus led to the abandonment of agricultural activities, a To capture variation in sociodemographic conditions, we situation that, together with the reforestation with pine trees followed a quota sampling strategy (Shively 2011) aiming and the declaration of protected area, led to big changes in to include, in each Zone, a minimum number of individuals the territory (Zamora et al. 2016). Despite these changes, for each of the main professions in the area (i.e., farmers, people working on agropastoral activities continue to rely shepherds, ranchers, agricultural ranchers (farmers who on local knowledge and traditional management techniques also have livestock), beekeepers, and others—including for their livelihood (Iniesta-Arandia et al. 2014, García-del- people who performed agropastoral activities as second- Amo et al. 2022). Recent research in the region comparing ary economic activity or for self-consumption). Our sample the current environmental status with the former conditions only included people who have lived 25 years or longer in reported in local sayings and proverbs (Proverbs are a short, the village of residence and who have a profession directly well-known pithy saying, stating a general truth or piece of or indirectly related to agropastoral activities. To select Fig. 1  Map of the study region. Dots represent the 33 sampled vil- Ravine, Zone 6: Nacimiento Valley, Zone 7: La Calahorra Valley, lages. Circles represent the eight study Zones: Zone 1: Granada’s Zone 8: Marquesado del Cenete. Number in brackets () represents the surroundings, Zone 2: Lanjarón and Lecrín Valley, Zone 3: Poqueira average of meters above sea level (MSL) of villages in a Zone Ravine, Zone 4: Trevélez and Bérchules Ravines, Zone 5: Ohanes 13 14 Page 4 of 16 Regional Environmental Change (2023) 23:14 interviewees, we used different techniques. Upon arrival to eight Zones in four ranges (Zones with an average altitude a village, we held a meeting with the mayor and members under 800 MSL, from 800 to 1049 MSL, from 1050 to 1299 of different associations to explain the research project. MSL, and over 1300 MSL). Through these representatives, we contacted other members In the second part of the survey, we asked informants of the associations in the same or other zones and asked if, when comparing the current state of the environment them to participate. To find a balanced number of repre- with the situation 25 years ago, they had noted changes. To sentatives regarding professions and to increase gender vari- select environmental changes to include in our survey, we ability, we also approached potential respondents by directly relied on a literature review of local observations of climate visiting farms and agricultural fields located on the outskirts change impacts and on semi-structured interviews. Specifi- of the villages. Overall, we conducted 238 questionnaires in cally, an initial list of local observations of climate change 33 villages from June to December 2018. impacts was collected from the literature and categorized in Our sampling and data collection procedures received the Local Indicators of Climate Change Impacts (LICCI), using ethical approval of the Autonomous University of Barcelona the protocol proposed by Reyes-García et al. (2019). This (CEEAH-4781). We asked participants to sign a free, prior protocol classifies observations into indicators following a and informed consent form before starting data collection. hierarchical process level depending on the system, subsys- tem, and impacted element. We selected impacts that could Survey have been observed in the region and confirmed their local occurrence by consulting literature on the study area and The survey consisted of two sections: respondents’ (i) soci- conducting interviews with 20 elderly people and 10 local odemographic information and (ii) reports of climate change experts. After conducting the interviews, we adapted the impacts. vocabulary to the local context to elaborate the survey, using In the first part of the survey, we collected information on local expressions like “neveros” (snowfield) or “acequias” sociodemographic characteristics of individuals including (irrigation ditch). The final list for the survey included 95 profession, age, gender, schooling, parents’ and grandpar- LICCI affecting 46 impacted elements of the atmospheric ents’ origin, years of experience in agropastoral activities, (n = 12), the physical (n = 11), the biological (n = 15), and number of activities conducted in nature. Profession was and the human systems (n = 8). For each of the indicators coded as farmers, shepherds, ranchers, beekeepers, agri- selected, we asked respondents “Could you tell me, if you cultural ranchers, and others. Information on respondent’s have noticed {LICCI} in this area during the last 25 years?” age was collected in years, but later grouped into age ranges Responses were coded as 0 = the person did not notice the of 15 years (25 to 39 years; 40 to 54 years; 55 to 69 years; change, 1 = the person noticed the change, and 2 = person 70 to 84 years; > 85 years). Respondent’s level of schooling did not know (the list of LICCI used in the survey can be was coded into four categories (0 = no schooling, 1 = pri- found in Online Resource 1). The survey was conducted in mary school completed, 2 = secondary or vocational school Spanish. completed, and 3 = bachelor or high school completed). We collected information on parent’s and grandparent’s origins in two different binary variables (0 = born outside Analysis Sierra Nevada; 1 = born in Sierra Nevada), because family origin and migration status affect individual’s local knowl- We started the analysis by exploring the impacts most edge (Pirker et al. 2012; Brandt et al. 2013). Finally, we commonly perceived by informants. To do so, we cal- collected information on the number of activities conducted culated the percentage of people perceiving each of the in nature as this is a good proxy for the level of interac- 95 impacts proposed in the survey and analyzed results tion with the environment (Reyes-García et al. 2009). The aggregating the data in the 46 impacted elements of the numerical variable “number of activities in nature” (from four studied systems. Each impacted element included 0 to 6) captures how many of the following activities have one or more than one LICCI, and we considered that a conducted a respondent in his/her lifetime: agriculture, respondent perceived changes in an impacted element livestock, beekeeping, hunting, wood collection, and non- if he/she reported changes in at least one of the LICCI timber forest products collection. We also noted the Zone included in that element. To get a deeper understanding where each informant was living. We proxied the altitude of impacts perceived in primary sector activities, we also of each village as the altitude of the town hall of the village analyzed impacts in the human system separately, differ- and we proxied the altitude of each Zone as the average of entiating responses from people with specific professions. the altitudes of town hall of villages included in the Zone. Specifically, to analyze perceptions of impacts in agricul- Since villages’ lands cover a high-altitude gradient, we also ture, in this part of the analysis, we only considered the created a variable, called altitude-range, which divides the opinion of farmers and agricultural ranchers (n = 91), to 13 Regional Environmental Change (2023) 23:14 Page 5 of 16 14 analyze perceptions of impacts in pastures and livestock Results we only used the sample of shepherds, ranchers, and agri- cultural ranchers (n = 78), and to analyze perceptions of We conducted 238 surveys, between 27 and 29 in each impacts on bees we only considered the sample of bee- Zone, with farmers (n = 66), shepherds (n = 40), ranch- keepers (n = 31). ers (n = 13), beekeepers (n = 31), agricultural ranchers The second part of the analysis focused on exploring (n = 25), and others (n = 63). Women composed only 6.7% how individual sociodemographic characteristics and of the sample, as most women approached refused to par- geographic location shape individual perceptions of cli- ticipate. Most respondents (76.9%) had between 40 and mate change impacts. We firstly calculated the number 69 years of age and only 10.5% had a bachelor or had of impacts perceived by each informant and compared completed higher studies (Table 1). the average number of LICCI perceived across profes- sions, age ranges, gender, schooling, and Zones. Because the sample did not meet the conditions of normality and Perceptions of climate change impacts homoscedasticity, for our calculations, we used a series of Kruskal–Wallis nonparametric tests. Overall, the number of people who perceived changes To assess the degree to which different variables in the atmospheric system was larger than the number shaped respondent’s reports of climate change impacts, of people who perceived changes in the rest of the sys- we ran multivariate regressions using our sociodemo- tems (Fig. 2), with more than 90% of respondents per- graphic variables (i.e., profession, age, gender, schooling, ceiving changes in seven out of the 12 impacted elements parents’ and grandparents’ born in Sierra Nevada, years of the atmospheric system. Changes in five out of the 11 of experience in agropastoral activities, and number of impacted elements of the physical system were perceived activities conducted in nature) as potential explanatory by more than 90% of respondents, and changes in nine out variables of the total number of impacts perceived by of the 15 impacted elements of the biological system were an informant (i.e., LICCI Index, our dependent variable). perceived by more than 70% of respondents. In contrast, The effect of age was verified by also including the square in the human system, only changes in the three impacted of the age variable (­ age2), which allows to test for non- elements of agriculture were perceived by more than 75% linear effects. We used Poisson’s regressions because our of respondents. Overall, the impacted elements for which dependent variable is discrete with non-negative integer more respondents perceived changes were snowfall and values (Cameron and Trivedi, 1998). To further explore snow cover (perceived by 99.6% of respondents), terres- variation, we created four additional variables that, basi- trial fauna abundance (99.2%), freshwater availability cally, counted the total number of impacts perceived from (98.3%), and extreme temperatures (98.3%). Among the each system (i.e., Atmospheric Index, Physical Index, ten impacted elements in which changes were most often Biological Index, and Human Index) and ran the same perceived, four belong to the atmospheric system, four to regression model. the physical system, one to the biological, and one to the We then tested the robustness of our main results by human system. applying some changes to our main model. In our first Respondents generally agreed about changes in ele- robustness test, we excluded the 16 women in the sam- ments of the atmospheric system. Changes in mean and ple. In the second robustness model, we excluded the extreme temperatures, changes in mean and seasonal rain- 13 interviewees under 40 years of age, as these partici- fall and droughts, and changes in the duration and timing pants might have a shorter perspective to compare their of seasons were the changes most frequently perceived. observations with previous periods and will rely more Perceptions of changes in elements of the physical system on local knowledge transmitted from elder generations. show the greatest disparity of reports. In almost half of the Finally, in our third and fourth robustness tests, instead elements of the physical system, changes were perceived of the eight Zones, we used the variables “altitude” and by more than 90% of respondents, whereas changes in “altitude-range” respectively to characterize respondents’ other elements were less commonly reported (i.e., 68.1% geographical location. of respondents reported no change in water temperature of We report p-values < 0.05 as indicator of statistical sig- rivers and high mountain lakes, 52.5% reported no change nificance. All statistical analyses were carried out with in soil fertility, structure, and biology, and 47.9% reported the Stata statistical software program version 13 and the no change on riverbank erosion and sedimentation). Many graphical representations of the Microsoft EXCEL pro- respondents perceived changes in most of the elements of gram 2016 version. the biological system, being changes in abundance of ter- restrial fauna the second element in which changes were 13 14 Page 6 of 16 Regional Environmental Change (2023) 23:14 Table 1  Average number of climate change impacts (LICCI index) reported, by profession, sociodemographic characteristics, and geographical location (Zones) Variable Profession Farmers Shepherds Ranchers Beekeepers Agricultural Others Total sample Group ranchers (n) Average LICCI n Average n Aver- n Average n Average n Aver- n Average Index LICCI age LICCI LICCI age LICCI Index LICCI Index Index LICCI Index Index Index Age range 25−39 5 41 1 40 - - 2 50.5 1 71 4 45 (13) 45.9 40−54 21 52.3 12 58.2 8 53.9 15 52.9 8 55.7 21 51.7 (85) 53.6 55−69 20 52.7 22 55.6 5 58.9 12 54.7 9 56.9 30 49 (98) 53.2 70−84 18 48.3 5 59 - - 2 58.5 6 53.3 8 45.1 (39) 50.3 85 and over 2 47.5 - - - - - - 1 57 - - (3) 50.7 Schooling No schooling 19 48.5 15 57.9 1 2 62 6 55.2 5 46.8 (48) 53.1 Primary school completed 25 54.9 17 56.3 8 53.6 9 55.7 18 55.8 25 49.4 (102) 53.9 Secondary or vocational 15 49.4 8 53.9 3 61.7 15 54.1 1 71 21 48.3 (63) 51.6 school completed Bachelor or higher school 7 40.9 - 1 5 46.6 - - 12 51.1 (25) 46.9 completed. Gender Female 3 46 3 65.3 - - 5 57.2 1 51 4 42.2 (16) 52.5 Male 63 50.5 37 55.7 13 55.8 26 53.2 24 56.5 59 49.6 (222) 52.4 Zone Granada´s surroundings 9 53.1 6 56.8 2 64 6 54 5 60.2 5 42.4 (33) 54.1 Lanjarón and Lecrín 4 48.5 4 54.2 1 45 6 49.7 4 55 9 47.1 (28) 49.9 Valley Poqueira Ravine 10 53.2 3 60.7 1 66 3 49 - - 13 49.3 (30) 52.3 Trevélez and Bérchules 12 52.4 1 48 3 61.7 2 71 5 55.8 8 52.1 (31) 54.8 Ravines Ohanes Ravine 5 52.6 8 62.4 1 52 3 60.7 4 57.5 7 51.9 (28) 56.7 Nacimiento Valley 6 49.5 4 44.5 - - 5 50.2 5 56 9 58.1 (29) 52.7 La Calahorra Valley 10 46 6 58.7 1 40 6 54.2 1 63 5 41.8 (29) 50 Marquesado del Cenete 10 46.9 8 55.1 4 52.2 - - 1 33 7 44.1 (30) 48.7 Total sample (66) 50.3 (40) 56.4 (13) 55.8 (31) 53.8 (25) 56.2 (63) 49.2 (238) 52.4 (n) Average LICCI Index most frequently reported (99.2%). Respondents perceived (88.7%), noticing a decrease of non-timber forest products mainly changes in abundance of wild boars (Sus scrofa) like mushrooms and berries, but also changes related to and mountain goats (Capra pyrenaica), but also in bird wild flora abundance (84.9%) and wild flora disease/pests and insect populations. Many respondents indicated a large (81.9%). However, more than 75% of informants reported increase of starlings (Sturnus sp.) in their area and several not being aware of changes in fish species, other than a interviewees claimed that they did not remember hav- decrease in fish abundance. Some of the oldest interview- ing seen them when they were young. A high percentage ees told us that when they were young, people used to of respondents (90.3%) perceived changes in terrestrial “fish while watering the fields,” as trout were so abundant fauna phenology, mainly changes in the reproductive and in the river that many got into the irrigation channels and migratory periods of mammals and birds, but also in the when people opened the floodgates to irrigate the fields, activity period of insects, with some shepherds and ranch- trout ended up in the crops. A few respondents reported ers reporting that nowadays their livestock has problems changes in fish size, indicating a size increase. “Now we with fleas and ticks all year round. A high proportion of are not allowed to fish trout, so the biggest ones eat most respondents (81.5%) reported changes in terrestrial fauna of the fingerlings and the population structure is changing disease and pests and shepherds and ranchers commented with more adult members and less young fish.” that transmission of diseases and pests from wild goats and Finally, when analyzing the human system, 94.9% of dears is nowadays a persistent problem for livestock in the respondents reported changes in crop pests, diseases, and region. Many respondents also reported changes in ele- mortality (Fig. 2). The subsample of informants directly ments of wild flora, like wild flora productivity and quality dependent on agropastoral professions also reported changes 13 Regional Environmental Change (2023) 23:14 Page 7 of 16 14 Fig. 2  Perception of changes reported by the total sample of respondents on the atmospheric, physical, biological, and human systems in the availability of pastures (97.4%) and changes in bees’ becomes negative (p < 0.01). People with no schooling or pest and diseases (96.8% of beekeepers) (Fig. 3). who had only completed primary school reported more impacts than people with a bachelor degree or higher stud- Correlates of climate change impacts reports ies (p < 0.05). We also found that people whose grandparents were born in Sierra Nevada generally reported more climate On average, each informant reported 52.4 of the 95 local change impacts than those whose grandparents were born indicators of climate change impacts (LICCI) included in elsewhere, although those whose parents were born in Sierra the survey. Shepherds (56.4) and agricultural ranchers (56.2) Nevada reported less impacts than those whose parents were perceived more impacts (χ2 = 23.543; p = 0.000) than peo- born elsewhere (p < 0.05). We found a positive and statisti- ple with other professions. Farmers (50.3) and people with cally significant association between the number of impacts professions outside the primary sector (49.2) perceived the reported by a respondent and the number of activities per- least number of impacts. Groups of respondents in the ranges formed in nature by that person (p < 0.01). Finally, Zone between 40 and 54 and between 55 and 69 years of age also also showed a statistically significant association with the reported more impacts than people in other age-range groups number of impacts reported, with informants from Granada’s (χ2 = 9.54; p = 0.049). Men and women reported similar surroundings, Ohanes Ravine, and Trevélez and Bérchules number of LICCI. People with bachelor or higher studies Ravines reporting more impacts than informants from Mar- completed perceived less impacts (46.9) than the rest of quesado del Cenete (our reference category). informants (χ2 = 10.979; p = 0.012). Finally, respondents liv- We conducted a similar analysis using as dependent vari- ing in Ohanes Ravine perceived more impacts (56.7) than able the total number of impacts perceived in each of the respondents in other Zones did (χ2 = 17.762; p = 0.013). systems analyzed. The number of impacts reported on ele- We found several associations between sociodemographic ments of the atmospheric system (i.e., Atmospheric Index) characteristics of informants and the number of climate was only associated with the variables that capture whether change impacts reported (i.e., LICCI Index) (Table 2). When the informant’s grandparents were born in Sierra Nevada. considering the total number of impacts reported, shepherds We also found that people from Lanjarón and Lecrín Val- and agricultural ranchers reported a statistically significant ley reported fewer impacts in the atmospheric system than higher number of impacts than people with other professions people from other Zones (Column 2, Table 2). The num- (p < 0.01; Table 2, Column 1). Age displays an inverted ber of impacts on elements of the physical system (i.e., U-shape relation with the number of impacts reported, Physical Index) only showed a statistically significant and so although the number of impacts reported by a person positive association with living in Ohanes Ravine (Column increases with his/her age, after a certain point, the relation 3, Table 2), where an informant told to us: “when I was a 13 14 Page 8 of 16 Regional Environmental Change (2023) 23:14 Fig. 3  Perception of changes in the human system reported by changes in livestock refer to shepherds’, ranchers’, and agricultural respondents with professions from the primary sector. Changes in ranchers’ reports (n = 78); and changes in bees refer to beekeepers’ cultivated species (cultivate spp) refer to farmers’ and agricultural reports (n = 31) ranchers’ reports (n = 91); changes in pasture and grassland and child, the spring of my village had a flow of ‘two bodies’ [a associations found in the main model remain. In the regres- local measure of volume] and now there is less than ‘one sion excluding people under 40 years of age (n = 225), only arm.” Age of respondents, number of activities performed the age and the variables that capture whether the informant in nature, and Zone (i.e., living in Granada’s surroundings, had parents and grandparents born in Sierra Nevada become Poqueira Ravine, Trevélez and Bérchules Ravines, and statistically insignificant. Finally, in the two models in which Ohanes Ravine) bear a positive association with the num- the variable that capture the Zone where a resident lives is ber of impacts perceived in the biological system (i.e., Bio- superseded by the variable altitude and the altitude-range logical Index, Column 4 in Table 2). Finally, respondent’s respectively, we found that neither of these two variables profession and total number of activities performed in nature bears a statistically significant association with the LICCI were associated in a statistically significant way with the Index. number of climate change impacts perceived in the human system (i.e., Human Index). Particularly, except farmers, people with all other professions perceived more impacts Discussion than respondents in the group of others (i.e., professions not related to the primary sector) (Column 5, Table 2). Peo- Findings from this work show that Sierra Nevada inhabitants ple living in Trevélez and Bérchules Ravines also perceived perceive multiple local indicators of climate change impacts. more impacts in the human system than people living in Changes in snow and hydric resources, abundance of terres- other Zones. trial fauna, and extreme temperatures were reported by more Results from our robustness test only minimally devi- than 98% of respondents. However, when looking at the full ate from our main results (Online Resource 2). Thus, in the range of impacts in the area, we also found that the number regression using only the subsample of men (n = 222), the and type of impacts reported are shaped by respondents’ variable that captures whether parents were born in Sierra sociodemographic characteristics and geographical location. Nevada becomes statistically insignificant and the category Before discussing the importance of these results, we pre- that captures respondents secondary or vocational stud- sent some sampling and measurement biases that call for ies becomes significant. All other statistically significant caution in interpreting them. First, we acknowledge that our 13 Regional Environmental Change (2023) 23:14 Page 9 of 16 14 Table 2  Results of Poisson’s regression showing sociodemographic correlates of climate change impacts reported. Considering the total number of impacts perceived (LICCI Index), and from each of the systems (Atmospheric Index, Physical Index, Biological Index, and Human Index) LICCI Atmospheric Physical Biological Human Index Index Index Index Index Profession (others omitted category) Farmers 0.0170 0.0110 0.0585 0.0253 –0.0737 (0.0267) (0.0506) (0.0489) (0.0498) (0.0731) Shepherds 0.1028*** 0.0483 0.0810 0.0488 0.3438*** (0.0317) (0.0611) (0.0586) (0.0596) (0.0808) Ranchers 0.0793 0.0475 0.0964 0.0171 0.2257** (0.0447) (0.0858) (0.0831) (0.0847) (0.1112) Beekeepers 0.0515 –0.0046 0.0188 0.0215 0.2640*** (0.0328) (0.0638) (0.0615) (0.0612) (0.0816) Agricultural ranchers 0.0935*** 0.0718 0.0830 0.0279 0.2827*** (0.0358) (0.0690) (0.0661) (0.0677) (0.0907) Age 0.0221*** 0.0108 0.0254** 0.0315*** 0.0254 (0.0064) (0.0119) (0.0119) (0.0121) (0.0170) ­Age2 –0.0002*** –0.0001 –0.0002** –0.0003*** –0.0003 (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001) Female –0.0272 0.0440 0.0329 –0.1212 –0.1057 (0.0383) (0.0713) (0.0695) (0.0744) (0.1012) Schooling (Bachelor or higher school completed omitted category) No schooling 0.0954** 0.0962 0.0995 0.0983 0.0640 (0.0436) (0.0834) (0.0799) (0.0821) (0.1142) Primary school completed 0.0890** 0.1048 0.0751 0.1150 0.0190 (0.0366) (0.0702) (0.0674) (0.0688) (0.0955) Secondary or vocational school completed 0.0671 0.0883 0.0270 0.0929 0.0452 (0.0363) (0.0697) (0.0671) (0.0681) (0.0937) Parents born in Sierra Nevada –0.1042** –0.1785 –0.0685 –0.1205 –0.0065 (0.0514) (0.0987) (0.0944) (0.0959) (0.1348) Grandparents born in Sierra Nevada 0.0509** 0.0968** 0.0347 0.0425 0.0172 (0.0246) (0.0478) (0.0450) (0.0460) (0.0630) Years of experience agropastoral activities –0.0016 –0.0019 –0.0012 –0.0019 –0.0009 (0.0011) (0.0020) (0.0020) (0.0021) (0.0031) Number of activities in nature 0.0422*** 0.0210 0.0201 0.0531*** 0.1025*** (0.0099) (0.0190) (0.0185) (0.0186) (0.0256) Zone (Marquesado del Cenete omitted category) Zone Granada´s surroundings 0.0777** –0.1057 0.0711 0.2602*** 0.1060 (0.0378) (0.0711) (0.0697) (0.0717) (0.1003) Zone Lanjarón and Lecrín Valley 0.0034 –0.1551** 0.0167 0.0942 0.1159 (0.0406) (0.0769) (0.0749) (0.0777) (0.1054) Zone Poqueira Ravine 0.0505 –0.0420 0.0310 0.1786** 0.0437 (0.0390) (0.0719) (0.0723) (0.0741) (0.1063) Zone Trevélez and Bérchules Ravines 0.1009*** –0.0258 0.0666 0.1770** 0.2818*** (0.0386) (0.0717) (0.0714) (0.0743) (0.1012) Zone Ohanes Ravine 0.1071*** –0.0126 0.1491** 0.1998*** 0.1018 (0.0390) (0.0723) (0.0710) (0.0753) (0.1049) Zone Nacimiento Valley 0.0438 –0.1345 0.1015 0.1140 0.1490 (0.0397) (0.0749) (0.0723) (0.0765) (0.1043) Zone La Calahorra Valley 0.0146 –0.0490 0.0535 0.0400 0.0351 (0.0392) (0.0718) (0.0715) (0.0764) (0.1053) _cons 3.0705*** 2.2165*** 1.7604*** 1.5044*** 0.8775 (0.1918) (0.3596) (0.3589) (0.3627) (0.5009) N 238 238 238 238 238 Standard errors in parentheses ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01 13 14 Page 10 of 16 Regional Environmental Change (2023) 23:14 sample might be biased. Although we aimed for a balanced It is also interesting to highlight the high percentage of sample, due to particularities of the study region, this was respondents who reported impacts on elements of the bio- not feasible. Thus, we could only interview a low number logical system, an essential information for bridging scien- of people over 75 years, as many people in this age range tific and local knowledge systems according to a recent sur- preferred not to do the survey and delegated it in a younger vey to climate change experts (García-del-Amo et al. 2020). family member. Additionally, local cultural norms resulted Changes in abundance of terrestrial wild fauna, e.g., Iberian in higher rates of refusal to participate among women than ibex (Capra pyrenaica), wild boar (Sus scrofa), or starling among men. Finally, orographic and environmental differ- (Sturnus sp.), were the changes most frequently reported. ences produce an unbalanced geographical concentration While some of these reports dovetail with information from of some professions, which is reflected in the population instrumental measurements (e.g., the increase of Iberian ibex distribution across activities and Zones in our sample. We population (Granados et al. 2020)), others are new to the have tried to assess the effect of these sampling biased in scientific literature in the area. This is the case, for example, our results by testing our model with different subsamples. of reports on the increase of the population of starlings, to Second, our results might also be affected by measurement the detriment of other local species, a change that has been errors resulting from informants providing—voluntarily or reported in other parts of the world (e.g., Craig 2020), but involuntarily—inaccurate information, as it often happens not locally. Changes in terrestrial fauna also include obser- when referring to issues occurring in past times (Armah vations in changes in behavior, distribution, and phenology et al. 2015). We cannot correct for this potential bias, which of reptiles and insects, matching findings from other stud- might affect our results in unknown magnitude and direction. ies in mountain areas (Postigo 2014; Ingty 2017; Lamsal Finally, an important caveat to keep in mind when inter- et al. 2017). For example, shepherds reported phenological preting our results relates to the influence of other drivers changes in the fleas, ticks, horseflies, wasps, and bees, as of change. As elsewhere, in our study region, several other it has also been reported by researchers from the Global drivers of change interact with climate change generating Observatory of Sierra Nevada (Hódar and Zamora 2004; environmental impacts (Junqueira et al. 2021; Pörtner et al. Illán et al. 2012; Menéndez et al. 2014). Similarly, inform- 2021). In our survey, we asked about environmental changes ants’ reports on changes in wild flora abundance and pro- potentially driven by climate change, but as we did not ask ductivity and wild flora diseases match with the increase of particularly about other drivers of change, the role of climate pine processionary moths during the last 60 years, which is change as driver might be overestimated. also reported in the literature (Ros-Candeira et al. 2019). A main finding of this work is that, drawing on local Differently, informants reported few impacts in freshwater knowledge, inhabitants of Sierra Nevada are aware of mul- fish and the reported impacts in abundance and size differ tiple climate change impacts, particularly changes in the from results of recent studies in the area (Galiana-García atmospheric systems, with changes in snowfall and snow et al. 2016), a finding that we attribute to the effects that the cover, changes in freshwater availability, and changes in fishing prohibition implemented with the declaration of the terrestrial fauna abundance being the three impacted ele- national park (1999) in eroding local practices and knowl- ments most often reported. Overall, the finding concords edge system (Fox et al. 2009; Santos and Sampaio 2013). with previous literature reviews of local observations of cli- Informants also perceived changes in the human system, mate change impacts (Savo et al. 2016; Reyes-García et al. being changes in crop productivity and quality, crop disease 2019) and recent research in the area (Garteizgogeascoa and pests, and crops phenology the changes most reported et al. 2020) signaling that local inhabitants perceive changes by informants. Importantly and as in other mountain pasto- attributable to climate change impacts. Changes directly ral communities (Wang and Cao 2015; Tilahun et al. 2017; related to the water-cycle (e.g., changes in rainfall, changes Uprety et al. 2017; Kharumnuid et al. 2018; Córdova et al. in freshwater availability, changes in ice and snow) were 2019), Sierra Nevada respondents with professions directly reported by most informants, as it is also the case in other devoted to the primary sector also perceived several changes mountain regions (Xu et al. 2009; Postigo 2014; Shijin and in availability and quality of pastures and pest and diseases Dahe 2015; Córdova et al. 2019; Huang et al. 2019). Indeed, in livestock species and bees. To us, the richness of reports Sierra Nevada has experienced a decline in water resources of change documented through local knowledge could be during the last century (Jódar et al. 2017), including changes at the basis for efforts to explore synergies between local in rainfall trends, with less rainy summers (Ruiz Sinoga et al. ecological knowledge and science. In this sense, researchers 2011), dryer and longer autumns (Machado et al. 2011), and recognized that it could improve our understanding of cli- shorter snow periods than 50 years ago (Bonet et al. 2016). mate change impacts at a local scale mainly in the biological Data series collected since 1960 showed a significant nega- and human system (see García-del-Amo et al. 2020). tive trend in rainfall in 43% of the Sierra Nevada territory The second important finding of this work is that reports (Pérez-Luque et al. 2016). of climate change impacts are patterned by respondents’ 13 Regional Environmental Change (2023) 23:14 Page 11 of 16 14 sociodemographic characteristics and geographic location. number and type of climate change impacts reported, which Regarding sociodemographic characteristics, we found that might suggest that climate change impacts vary event at variables capturing respondents’ bonding with the territory small geographical scales. For example, people in Ohanes (i.e., number of activities performed in nature, grandpar- Ravine reported more impacts in the physical system than ents being born in Sierra Nevada, and age) showed a posi- people from other Zones. The Ohanes Ravine is located in tive association with the number of climate change impacts the south-east region, far from the last snowfields of the sum- reported by the person, whereas having high levels of formal mer and with highest hydric stress (Raso Nadal 2011), which education showed a negative association with the number directly affects rivers’ flow and duration, soil moisture, and of climate change impacts reported by the person, probably freshwater availability in this Zone. Similarly, respondents because formal education often proxies for local knowledge in Trevélez and Bérchules Ravines, who proportionally erosion (Iselin 2011; Benyei et al. 2020). Independently of have a higher dependence on agriculture than respondents their profession, the number of activities that an inform- in other Zones, reported more impacts in elements of the ant has performed in nature was directly related with the human system. In this Zone, located in the windward side number of impacts reported. Moreover, in consonance with of Sierra Nevada, villages are at high elevation and close this finding, we also found that shepherds and agricultural to the snowfields that remain the longest at summer, with ranchers reported more impacts than people with other pro- secured access to water. As informants reported, tempera- fessions, probably because their activities demand long peri- ture increase has allowed them to lengthen their agricul- ods of time in nature alone, which facilitates observing and tural production season by almost 2 months, although the understanding the environment. Indeed, the relevance and temperature increase has also favored the proliferation of accuracy of shepherd’s and herder communities’ knowledge pests, as has been reported in other mountain areas (Taboada have also been found among Spanish transhumant shepherds et al. 2017; Meldrum et al. 2018). It is worth mentioning, (Oteros-Rozas et al. 2013), nomadic herders in Mongolia however, that our robustness test shows that village altitude (Fassnacht et al. 2018), or Sami herders in Finland (Riseth and altitude-range of the different Zones are not significantly et al. 2011). The importance of bonding with the territory associated with the number of impacts reported, probably in shaping respondents’ reports of climate change impacts because altitude is only one among multiple factors. For was also reflected in the association with the variable that example, people in La Calahorra Valley, located at a high captured whether the informant had grandparents born in altitude but in the leeward side of the mountain, have not Sierra Nevada and informant’s age. Interestingly, we also been able to maintain such a productive agricultural system found a negative association between the number of impacts as people in Bérchules and Trevélez Ravines due to the scar- reported and having parents been born in the area. To us, city of hydric resources, which is influenced by the Foehn these apparently contradictory findings might reflect dif- and the NAO effects (Herrero and Polo 2016; Pérez-Luque ferences in knowledge among respondents from families et al. 2016). Similarly, people in Lanjarón and Lecrín valley, migrating from other regions (Brandt et al. 2013; Ma et al. located at 772 MSL, reported less impacts in the atmos- 2019) compared with people from families with more than a pheric system than people in other Zones located at higher century of permanence in Sierra Nevada. Respondents under altitudes, probably due to the local effect of a big dam built 40 years perceived fewer impacts than other groups due to in this Zone 16 years ago, which acts as a buffer decreas- their experiential range being smaller to compare changes ing high summer temperatures, generating a microclimate happening in the last 25 years with previous times. However, (Miller 2005; Degu et al. 2011). an agricultural rancher from this group reported the third- Geographic location also shapes reports of changes in highest number of impacts, which might indicate the influ- elements of the biological system, which are attributed ence of local knowledge transmitted by elder generations. It to multiple drivers of change. For example, changes in is also important to highlight that age does not show a lin- the abundance of wildlife were more often perceived in ear association with the number of climate change impacts Granada surroundings, Poqueira Ravine, Bérchules and reported, as the eldest respondents reported fewer impacts Trevélez Ravines, and Ohanes Ravine. Respondents in these than younger respondents. Although the finding could just communities argued that damages in crops and orchards reflect cognitive degeneration (Bermejo-Pareja et al. 2008), have increased due to the presence of wild boars and goats we argue that it could also reflect that old informants are less who now lack food in the mountain because of decreased active professionally, for which they might not be updating rainfall and land use change generated by pine reforesta- their knowledge of subtle changes as frequently as those tion (Zamora et al. 2016). However, in Granada surround- who continue working actively (Oteros-Rozas et al. 2013; ings and Poqueira Ravine, Zones with the highest touristic Klein et al. 2014). pressure of Sierra Nevada, respondents recognized that In addition to individual sociodemographic character- wild fauna is also losing its habitat due to the pressure of istics, respondent’s geographic location also shaped the the touristic sector, which might result in an increase of 13 14 Page 12 of 16 Regional Environmental Change (2023) 23:14 their presence in lower areas. In Trevélez and Bérchules impacts can be different even at small geographic scales Ravines, people claimed that wild animals are moving from should be considered when developing adaptation poli- other Zones because they still have a productive agricul- cies, recognizing the diversity of local realities of affected ture, which attract starving animals displaced from other communities. areas. On the contrary, respondents from Ohanes Ravine attribute the increase in the abundance of animals and their Supplementary Information The online version contains supplemen- tary material available at https://d​ oi.o​ rg/1​ 0.1​ 007/s​ 10113-0​ 22-0​ 1981-5. impact on crops to the greater hydric stress in that Zone compared to other areas in Sierra Nevada, to the lower hunt- Acknowledgements We thank the collaboration of people from Sierra ing control, and to the displacement of groups of deer from Nevada who answered our survey and shared their valuable knowledge Filabres, the mountain range parallel to the Sierra Nevada. with us. We also thank Gorka Muñoa and Santiago Álvarez-Fernandez for their contribution to the graphic material of the article. All in all, these results suggest that climate change impacts can be different even at small geographical scales, Funding Open Access Funding provided by Universitat Autonoma de as it has also been showed in other European forests (Mina Barcelona. We acknowledge financial support from the Spanish Min- et al. 2017). Moreover, our results add to this previous istry of Economy and Competitiveness, through the María de Maeztu Programme for Units of Excellence in R&D (MdM-2015–0552), the finding suggesting that differentiated impacts at small geo- project grant CSO2014-59704-P, and from the European Research graphical area might be larger when climate change impacts Council (ERC) under grant agreement no. 771056-LICCI-ERC-2017- interact with other drivers of environmental change. The COG. This work contributes to the “María de Maeztu” Programme for implication of this finding is that more locally grounded Units of Excellence (CEX2019-000940-M). data is needed to develop accurate climate change models Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attri- and adaptation measures (Xu et al. 2009; Cramer et al. 2014; bution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adapta- Ford et al. 2016; Reyes-García et al. 2019). tion, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are Conclusion included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in Local inhabitants of Sierra Nevada report multiple climate the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will change impacts on their local environment and livelihoods. need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a Many of these reports match with results obtained by sci- copy of this licence, visit http://​creat​iveco​mmons.​org/​licen​ses/​by/4.​0/. entists, although not all reports from local knowledge have comparable instrumental data, which highlights the potential of exploring synergies between different knowledge systems References to improve our understanding of climate change impacts. 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