Cities 137 (2023) 104275 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Cities journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/cities The role of the state in the touristification of Lisbon Ana Estevens a, Agustín Cocola-Gant a, b, *, Antonio López-Gay c, d, Fabiana Pavel e a Centre of Geographical Studies, Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, University of Lisbon, Associated Laboratory Terra, R. Branca Edmée Marques, 1600-276 Lisboa, Portugal b School of Geography, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane, LS2 9JT Leeds, UK c Department of Geography, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Campus de Bellaterra, Edifici B, Carrer de la Fortuna, s/n, 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain d Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics (CED-CERCA), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Carrer de Ca n’Altayó, Edifici E2, 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain e Architecture, Urbanism and Design Research Center – Architecture School of Lisbon University, Rua Sá Nogueira, Pólo Universitário, Alto da Ajuda, 1349-063 Lisboa A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T Keywords: The explanation regarding the recent touristification of cities has significantly focused on the ability of platforms Gentrification such as Airbnb to offer millions of tourist beds in areas that were not planned for tourism use. Exploring Lisbon, Tourism we offer instead a political economic explanation where touristification is the result of the active intervention of Redevelopment the neoliberal state. Lisbon moved from a phase of abandonment to be gentrified by tourism in a very short Short-term rentals period. To explain this, we examine how the state absorbed the cost of redevelopment, thus ensuring that private Hotels Neoliberalism capital could extract profits from rehabilitation, and allowed developers to build the most profitable product with Southern Europe no limitations, which to a great extent are short-term rentals, hotels, and luxury housing for transnational users. By examining how the central city has been re-invented to serve the needs of private capital, we develop a dialogue between this general process of gentrification and how it is experienced in Southern Europe as a wave of intense touristification. We contextualize this within the historical political economic process in which the Eu­ ropean South has progressively become a space of vacation for transient populations who are presented as the new class to be served. 1. Introduction that the production of housing for tourist use could not have occurred without the active intervention of the state. As Barata-Salgueiro (2017) In the last decade, Lisbon experienced a significant growth of pointed out, tourism in Lisbon provided a strategic element to advance tourism, to such an extent that the number of both hotels and airport urban redevelopment, and this involved a conception of housing reha­ arrivals doubled between 2012 and 2019, while short-term rentals bilitation as physical change –beautification– with no interest in dis­ (STRs) moved from 900 to >19,000 in the same period (Turismo de cussing for whom the city is actually for. Portugal, 2021). Simultaneously, Lisbon has been on the radar of real The lessons of this case study allow us to interpret touristification in estate investors, and there has been an intense wave of housing reha­ the context of a broader gentrification process; that is, a cycle of disin­ bilitation in the historic centre; an area which, in previous decades, had vestment of the urban core, followed by a redevelopment process aimed experienced physical degradation and depopulation. In this paper we at putting housing into the ‘highest and best use’ (Smith, 1996). The relate these two phenomena and, empirically, the aim of the paper is central city has been re-invented by the state to serve the needs of pri­ twofold. On the one hand, using georeferenced data on both licences for vate capital, and this process contributed to the extensive displacement the renovation of buildings and tourism accommodation, we estimate of communities. We develop a dialogue between this general process of the weight of tourism in the rehabilitation of the housing stock. On the gentrification with how it is experienced in Southern Europe as a wave other hand, we examine urban plans and public policies that, since the of intense touristification. To do so, we put into conversation the Anglo- early 2000s, have stimulated the arrival of real estate capital to convert Saxon literature on gentrification and how the process occurs within the urban infrastructures into tourist accommodation, which demonstrates context of the unequal spatial division of labour. We refer to the * Corresponding author at: Centre of Geographical Studies, Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, University of Lisbon, Associated Laboratory Terra, R. Branca Edmée Marques, 1600-276 Lisboa, Portugal. E-mail addresses: anaestevens@campus.ul.pt (A. Estevens), agustincocolagant@campus.ul.pt (A. Cocola-Gant), tlopez@ced.uab.cat (A. López-Gay), fa.pavel@edu. ulisboa.pt (F. Pavel). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2023.104275 Received 29 March 2022; Received in revised form 9 February 2023; Accepted 11 February 2023 Available online 8 March 2023 0264-2751/© 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by- nc-nd/4.0/). A. Estevens et al. Cities 137 (2023) 104275 historical process in which the European South has progressively related to the rehabilitation of the housing stock, as one of the main become a ‘vacationland festival’ (Lefebvre, 1991: 58), in which trans­ actions is the renovation of buildings for more affluent users. According national and transient populations —the tourist, the privileged migrant, to Weber (2010), as national state aids were contracted and re­ and so on (López-Gay et al., 2021)— are presented as the new class to be sponsibilities for redevelopment were devolved to cities, local govern­ served. ments adopted entrepreneurial approaches in a generalized pressure to Therefore, by touristification we mean a process in which space is attract capital. For instance, Fainstein (1994) explored how in New York produced for tourist lifestyles (Jover & Díaz-Parra, 2020; Kowalczyk- and London the concern of planners and the local state in general was Anioł, 2023; Milano et al., 2022; Salerno, 2022). In cities, it involves the how to encourage investment in property markets, in a redevelopment penetration of tourism into residential areas, causing a tacit land use process in which planners depended on private investors to make plans. change in which residents are displaced by transient populations. In Ultimately, state-led strategies provide the conditions to stimulate pri­ explaining touristification, the literature has played close attention to vate market redevelopment by assuming the costs of the process. This digital platforms such as Airbnb (Ioannides et al., 2019; Cocola-Gant & was, in fact, explicit in Smith’s explanation of the rent gap theory as he Gago, 2021; Yrigoy, 2019; Morales et al., 2022). The platform has been illustrated that the state had absorbed the early risks associated with seen as the central element in the touristification of places because of its gentrification, “thereby ensuring that developers could reap the high capacity to immediately offer millions of tourist beds in areas that were returns without which rehabilitation or redevelopment would not in theory not planned for tourism uses. We acknowledge the importance occur” (Smith, 1996: 67). of Airbnb in allowing the arrival of extra local demand and in offering to Scholars have explained different ways in which the state does so. A developers a new real estate product. However, the urban effects of common strategy has been to give incentives to invest in real estate Airbnb could have not happened without the compliance of the through tax deductions in designated areas targeted for redevelopment neoliberal state (Clancy, 2022; Jover & Cocola-Gant, 2023). Discussing (Harvey, 1989; Weber, 2002). Privatization of municipal property the early Neil Smith’s work, Slater (2021) reiterates that rent gaps would holdings is another strategy in which the local state auction off devalued not exist without the state serving as an active facilitator in creating the buildings to developers at prices below the market (Weber, 2002). conditions for capital to flow into the rehabilitation industry. The Further incentives have been the state-led provision of mortgage funds market needs state intervention, and redevelopment cannot simply at low or 0 % interest rates (Smith, 1996), in a process by which tax­ respond to demand. Through different interventions, we will show how payers, without warning, lend to developers for free. In the case of the the state absorbed the cost of redevelopment, thus ensuring that private London Docklands Development Corporation, authors explain how it capital could extract profits from rehabilitation, and allowed developers was a public-private partnership in which the main role of the state was to build the most profitable product with no limitations, which in Lis­ to offer cheap land, sell public properties to developers, and invest in bon, to a great extent, are STRs, hotels, and luxury housing for trans­ infrastructure, clearance and demolition to add value to the site (Fain­ national users. stein, 1994). The state reclaimed, improved, and prepared the land, In the next section, we learn from US and UK cases showing the enabling the realisation of profit by private actors. Through these pol­ strategy implemented by the neoliberal state to encourage redevelop­ icies, which are advantageous to capital, the state adds value to specific ment in the 1980s and 1990s. Then, we discuss why this framework is areas by absorbing and thus reducing the cost of redevelopment. useful in Southern Europe, and how in Lisbon this neoliberal toolkit has Redevelopment processes are fundamentally linked to the rehabili­ been especially important since the 2008 financial crisis, as tourism was tation of the housing stock. A state incentive to make cities more seen as a strategy for urban growth. attractive to real estate investment has been the liberalisation of the housing market in general and the private rental market in particular. 2. The neoliberal state and urban redevelopment The introduction of short leases so that landlords can repossess prop­ erties at any moment is a key neoliberal trend to make the rental market Neoliberalism combines a commitment to the extension of markets attractive to investors (Kemp, 2020). In contexts of lifetime tenancy, the and the logic of competitiveness with a supposed antipathy to all kinds elimination of rent control is needed for capital to flow to the housing of state intervention, advocating that the spontaneous operation of rehabilitation industry (Arbaci, 2019). Put simply, for developers to market forces would alone be sufficient to the task of economic regu­ rehabilitate the housing stock, the state needs first to guarantee that lation (Peck & Tickell, 2002). However, political economists have property owners can easily terminate contracts. The gentrification emphasised that the neoliberal formula was only applicable through literature illustrates how the process of abandonment of inner-city areas state intervention. As Brenner and Theodore (2002: 352) point out, is never complete, meaning that these places are usually inhabited by “while neoliberalism aspires to create a ‘utopia’ of free markets liberated low-income tenants who live in a decaying built environment (Hack­ from all forms of state interference, it has in practice entailed a dramatic worth & Smith, 2001; Lees et al., 2008). Rehabilitation can only begin intensification of coercive, disciplinary forms of state intervention in after such tenants have been displaced. The early gentrification litera­ order to impose market rule upon all aspects of social life” [emphasis in ture was very aware of this process and Glass (1964) noted that the original]. In the context of housing markets, Aalbers (2016) suggests relaxation of rent control introduced in London in 1958 was a central that rather than negatively affecting the market as the laissez-faire element that facilitated housing rehabilitation for the middle-classes. dogma advocates, the state regulated in favour of the private sector, In sum, the experiences described in this section illustrate that the for instance via the privatization of social housing, the promotion of neoliberal urban governance paved the way for the private sector to take homeownership and overall, by opening-up the field to rent-seeking the lead in the redevelopment of downtown areas. These cases are financial institutions. Neoliberalism re-shaped the previous regulatory informative because due to the different temporalities of capitalist system, creating a new infrastructure for market-oriented economic expansion, in Lisbon neoliberalism was only consolidated in the 21st growth. century. In the next section we discuss the temporality of gentrification In line with Harvey’s (1989) paper, in which he discussed the change in Southern Europe to further develop this point. from managerialism to entrepreneurialism, the Anglo-Saxon literature described several cases of neoliberal urban redevelopment strategies in 3. Temporality and tourism-led redevelopment in Southern the transition of cities to post-industrial economies. By redevelopment Europe we refer to the reinvestment in a place after a period of disinvestment. As it is the moment in which capital invest in an abandoned central area, The formation of rent gaps and how they can be closed vary in time redevelopment usually marks the starting point of gentrification pro­ and space due to uneven geographical development. In this regard, as cesses (Marcuse, 1985; Smith, 1996). Redevelopment is intrinsically gentrification research was following a model of urban change 2 A. Estevens et al. Cities 137 (2023) 104275 originated in London but difficult to find in other places, Lees (2012) estate industries (Jover & Cocola-Gant, 2023). On the one hand, tourism called to revisit the ‘geography of gentrification’. To this end, the author and the attraction of an international demand was a spatial fix to the (2012) suggested to examine the temporality of gentrification in each recession (Fletcher, 2011). According to the UNWTO, in the last decade context as the process can emerge in different places at different times. Southern Europe experienced the sharpest increase in tourist arrivals To move forward, Lees (2012) proposed to highlight the ‘generalizable registered anywhere in the world, making the area the top worldwide features of gentrification’ and to compare how and when they take place destination for tourists (Cañada & Murray, 2021). On the other hand, the in different geographies. As ‘generalizable feature’, in this paper we opening of local real estate markets to global flows of capital implied focus on the cycle of disinvestment and reinvestment of the urban core, that the state eased urban and environmental regulations to allow the which stimulated by state action, produces extensive displacement of growth of hotels, resorts, second homes, and STRs, while gifted financial vulnerable populations, regardless of whether the final consumer is a capital with greater power and encouraged institutional investors to visitor, a resident or both. The social and landscape change will vary fund tourism infrastructures (Blázquez-Salom, 2013; Janoschka et al., among cases as they will depend on specific local contexts (Clark, 2005), 2020; Murray, 2015; Yrigoy, 2016). but a ‘generalizable feature’ of gentrification is how redevelopment is As a result of these political economy changes, and coupled with the stimulated by the state to close rent gaps (Smith, 1996). success of digital platforms such as Airbnb, several Southern European The argument of this section is as follows: first, in several cities of places have moved from a phase of ‘decline’ to have been gentrified in a Southern Europe the redevelopment of central areas has only taken very fast way. The speed of touristification challenges the stage models place in the last years, mainly after 2014 when the real estate market of gentrification seen in the Anglo-Saxon literature. According to boosted after the recession. We refer for instance to the historic centres Hackworth and Smith (2001), first wave gentrification refers to the of cities such as Palermo (Picone, 2021), Porto (Carvalho et al., 2019), initial ‘back to the city movement’ in the 1970s; and the process moved Naples (Rossi, 2022), and Lisbon in this paper. Second, in terms of to a current fifth wave suggested by Aalbers (2019) marked by the state- supply redevelopment is sponsored by the state and its role in opening led financialization of property markets, in a context mediated by digital local real estate markets to financial capital. Third, in terms of demand platforms. The point is that there has been a time compression of the reinvestment is fundamentally driven by the role of tourism in opening process, in which places such as Lisbon have moved from first to fifth real estate investment opportunities and how platforms such as Airbnb wave gentrification in less than a decade. This velocity has important facilitated the process. And fourth, the consequence is that redevelop­ implications for social justice. Residents in these areas, who mainly were ment results in private capital converting all kinds of infrastructures for low educated elderly people, had no time or resources to respond to the tourism purposes, usually displacing residents, and giving way to cities disintegration of their place. in which the rehabilitated housing stock caters to floating and trans­ national users. These places moved from a phase of abandonment to be 4. Case study, sources, and research questions gentrified by tourism in a very short period. Therefore, the process challenges the timing of gentrification described in the Anglo-Saxon Lisbon is the capital of Portugal and has a population of 545,923 literature (Hackworth & Smith, 2001; Lees et al., 2008). However, it is inhabitants. Since the 1980s, the city experienced deindustrialization useful to have been explored how redevelopment kicked off in the UK and transitioned towards a post-industrial economy focused signifi­ and US because the local and national states in Lisbon adopted several of cantly on leisure. Simultaneously, the city, and particularly the historic the neoliberal formulas developed in previous decades in such places. As centre, experienced three interrelated processes: depopulation; aging of Díaz-Parra (2021) suggests, the fact that a conceptual framework orig­ the population; and degradation and abandonment of the housing stock. inates in a different context and at a different time does not invalid its Several neighbourhoods of the city centre have been inhabited by an explanatory capacity. elderly and working-class population living in a degraded built envi­ In other cases, some Southern European cities were experiencing ronment. The degree of capital disinvestment in the urban fabric was gentrification dynamics before the 2008 financial crisis (Janoschka drastically captured in the 2011 census, which shows that 52 % of et al., 2014). Here tourism and the financialization of property markets buildings in the historic centre of Lisbon were in need of repair. How­ came to consolidate the process (Cocola-Gant, 2018; Tulumello & ever, in the last decade an intense wave of housing rehabilitation Allegretti, 2021). This is for instance the case of Athens where the root of occurred in these areas (Barata-Salgueiro et al., 2017; Lestegás, 2019). gentrification is traced in the investments produced for the 2004 In the study, we focus on the historic centre of Lisbon – the districts of Olympic Games (Alexandri, 2015, 2018), but that has recently been Misericórdia, Santa Maria Maior, and São Vicente –, and in the analysis touristified in a rapid way (Pettas et al., 2022). Similar processes are we also include the two neighbouring districts of Arroios and Santo seen in the Spanish cities of Barcelona (Cocola-Gant & Lopez-Gay, António as they have a high number of both tourist accommodation and 2020), Palma (González-Pérez, 2020), and Seville (Jover & Díaz-Parra, rehabilitated buildings (Fig. 1). According to census data, between 1981 2020) among others. As Alexandri and Janoschka (2020) suggest, when and 2021 Lisbon’s population decreased by 32 %. However, in the his­ gentrification develops slowly through time, tourism and associated real toric centre, the population decrease was particularly dramatic, at a estate businesses are often enacted by the state to speed up value percentage of 63 %. In terms of age and education, in 2011, 25 % of the extraction from the city. In this regard, the intensification of this process population in the historic centre were >65 years of age while the group seen in the last years has much to do, on the one hand, with uneven of 0–24 years old represented only 18 %. In addition, 48 % of the pop­ development and, on the other, with how national and local states ulation in the historic centre only had primary education. As tenancy embraced tourism as a solution to the 2008 financial crisis. agreements signed before 1990 were for a lifetime, there has been a The core-periphery inequality within Europe have been accelerated widespread existence of semi-abandoned buildings partially occupied by since the integration of Southern European countries into the EU, and poor elderly tenants. the resulting weakness of Southern economies explain why they were The context in Lisbon can be comparable to cases of first wave severity hit by the 2008 financial crisis (Hadjimichalis, 2017). Hadji­ gentrification, where disinvestment created a rent gap and where the michalis (2017) further suggests that the imposition of austerity mea­ state was hoping for a ‘back to the city’ movement able to rehabilitate sures by the EU in the region implied the liberalisation of different the housing stock and ‘bring life’ to the old city. Before the 2008 sectors, including housing, in a pressure to attract capital investment financial crisis, some gentrification took place in certain areas (Mal­ and consumers. In such a context, the recent touristification seen in heiros et al., 2013; Pavel, 2015), however, it has only been in the last different Sothern European cities has much to do with the response to decade that the rehabilitation of housing emerged as a consolidated the 2008 financial crisis. The way out of the crisis consolidated an industry, this time coupled with a significant growth of tourism (Barata- accumulation regime based on the coupling of the tourism and real Salgueiro et al., 2017; Cocola-Gant & Gago, 2021; Tulumello, 2016; 3 A. Estevens et al. Cities 137 (2023) 104275 Fig. 1. Municipality of Lisbon, rehabilitation (in grey), and central districts (in red). (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.) Source: own elaboration from Lisbon City Council. Tulumello & Allegretti, 2021). Since 2016, and for the first time in 7182 buildings. The licences are represented in grey in Fig. 1. Second, history, Lisbon has been hosting more guests than the Algarve, the we use the National Tourism Register, which offers georeferenced data coastal region in southern Portugal that had been the main holiday about hotels and STRs. The STR register was created in 2014 and destination in the country since the 1970s (Turismo de Portugal, 2021). property owners could register by mere communication. As it is a The growth of visitors was paralleled by a steady increase in the number georeferenced dataset, for spatial analysis it offers better possibilities of tourism accommodation establishments. Between 2009 and 2021, than data scraped from the Airbnb website. The limitation of the dataset 137 hotels opened in Lisbon, summing a total number of 255 units is overrepresentation. From 2019, the city council halted new licences in (Turismo de Portugal, 2022). Similarly, the registry of STRs shows 1009 some areas of the historic centre. It seems that some property owners licences in 2014, but this number grew to >19,000 in 2019. As we will registered in 2018 before the limitation took place, but it is likely that show below, this growth is linked to the creation in 2014 of the Legal many of these have not been operating. Regime for the Exploration of STRs (Marques Pereira, 2022). Second, within the neoliberal framework that was reinforced as a Despite the wave of housing rehabilitation, the depopulation of the result of the 2008 economic crisis, it is of interest to disclose what the historic centre has increased in the last decade. The 2021 census shows state actually did to encourage housing rehabilitation and the role of that while the population in Lisbon decreased 1 %, the historic centre tourism in the process. To this end, we implemented critical policy lost 19 % of its registered inhabitants. Similarly, in the last decade the analysis by examining plans, laws and specific projects that will be historic centre experienced an 18 % decrease in the number of house­ described in more detail below. Finally, the paper is part of a bigger holds, while in Lisbon the decrease was 2 %. In this context, the hy­ project in which 24 in-depth interviews with real estate consultants, pothesis is that the state has been concerned with the physical developers, and STR management companies have been conducted rehabilitation of the housing stock, making efforts to attract real estate (Cocola-Gant et al., 2021). Interviews were conducted in 2019 and in capital, but with no interest in improving the housing conditions of 2021. The view of these participants helped to better interpret: the residents. In a context of low salaries – in 2019 the average monthly quantitative data; the strategies of investors regarding the redevelop­ remuneration in Portugal was 1005€ and the minimum wage was 580€ ment of the city; and the market dynamics of rehabilitated housing in –, it is more profitable for developers to build products catered for an Lisbon. extra local demand, and rehabilitation gave way largely to hotels, STRs, and luxury housing. To test and explain this hypothesis, the aim of the 5. Tourism and redevelopment in Lisbon: the role of the state research is twofold. First, we examine the rehabilitation of the housing stock and the extent to which rehabilitation gave way to tourism ac­ From the late 1980s, the central urban area of Lisbon began to be the commodation. To do so, we used two public georeferenced datasets and target of rehabilitation actions. In a first phase, the state was an active complemented this information with housing price data acquired from funder of a rehabilitation strategy that focused on social inclusion the consultancy Confidencial Imobiliário. The first dataset is municipal through the improvement of the housing conditions of the population data for licensing permits for the renovation and expansion of buildings (Mendes, 2014; Pavel, 2015; Pinho, 2009). However, the 1990s marked in the period 2009–2021. The limitation of this data is that we do not the start of a second phase that was in essence neoliberal and of which know whether the licence is for an entire building, an apartment, or the main goal was to attract real estate capital and tourism (Barata- several apartments in a building. In the studied period, >9000 licences Salgueiro, 2017; Estevens, 2017). In the early 2000s, the local state were provided within the municipality of Lisbon, affecting a total of assumed that the strategic aim for the city was to place it in the ranking 4 A. Estevens et al. Cities 137 (2023) 104275 of best places to live, visit, and invest; tourism promotion and the opening of tourism accommodation. For instance, the European In­ rehabilitation of the urban fabric being two central elements to achieve vestment Bank created the JESSICA programme to fund rehabilitation this (Mangorrinha, 2009). In terms of housing rehabilitation policies, at projects, and in Portugal 62 % of this funding scheme was used to open the national level this neoliberal turn is marked in 2004 by the creation hotels and STRs (Safara & Brito-Henriques, 2017). In a similar direction, of the Societies of Urban Rehabilitation – SURs (Decree Law 104/2004). in 2015 the Portuguese government created the Financial Instrument for Their main function is to raise capital for rehabilitation operations and Urban Rehabilitation and Revitalization, IFRRU 2020 (Council of Min­ to develop public-private partnerships (Branco & Alves, 2020; Queirós, isters Resolution No. 52-A/2015). The combination of these four mea­ 2007). The social welfare approach from the 1980s gave way to a sures was key, not only to foster redevelopment, but to encourage both market-led oriented rehabilitation framework more concerned with the penetration of financial capital in the rehabilitation industry and the improving physical degradation and, essentially, with giving more tourism-led rehabilitation of the housing stock. In a study of the reha­ power to developers in the decision-making process. bilitation of an 18th century building that was converted into a luxury The Portuguese state intensified the neoliberal agenda because of the hotel, Safara and Brito-Henriques (2017) define the hotel as an allegory 2008 financial crisis. Austerity, on the one hand, and the attraction of of these policies, as the developer benefited from all of them. capital and tourism on the other, were seen as solutions to the recession While fiscal and administrative benefits were given to developers, (Seixas et al., 2019). Further liberalisation was in fact a condition of the the state also created fiscal programmes to benefit international housing ‘Troika’ (the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the buyers. In 2009 the national state established the Tax Regime for Non- International Monetary Fund) in the bailout given to Portugal in 2011. Habitual Residents (Decree-Law 249/2009), and in 2012 it imple­ In Lisbon, the economic crisis consolidated the strategy of market-led mented the Authorisation of Residence for Investment Activity (ARI), rehabilitation by creating conditions favourable to real estate capital. popularly called the Golden Visa Programme (Decree-Law 29/2012). This was evident in the Lisbon Urban Rehabilitation Strategy The former scheme provides 10-year tax breaks to European citizens 2011–2024. This programme assumes that since the municipality does whose source of income is obtained abroad. This encourages retirees to not have the financial and technical means to invest in rehabilitation, move their pensions to Portugal, and as demonstrated by Montezuma the way to go is to attract “private investment for the rehabilitation of and Mcgarrigle (2019), they tend to be middle and upper classes who are buildings, making of it an investment as or more interesting than any investing in second homes. The Golden Visa programme grants resi­ other” (Lisbon City Council, 2011: 11). As Mendes (2014) notes, for this dence in Portugal and the possibility to obtain an EU passport to non-EU strategy to work, it is essential that investment is profitable, and this individuals who invest €500,000 in real estate, create at least ten jobs, or meant the creation of an ad hoc fiscal and regulatory framework. To this transfer this amount of capital to the country. The amount can be end, we highlight four elements that were implemented by both the €350,000 if the investment is for housing rehabilitation. In the period national and local states. First, in 2009 the national government 2012–2021, >10,000 permits were granted, 9514 of which were for real approved the New Legal Regime for Urban Rehabilitation (Decree-Law estate operations (SEF, 2022). Our interviews with real estate consul­ 307/2009). It gives power to municipalities to determine ‘urban reha­ tants reveal first, that Golden Visa investments are overwhelmingly bilitation areas’, where delimitation is associated with tax incentives. concentrated in prime locations in Lisbon, and second, that as investors Applied in these areas are: the reduction of the Value Added Tax, from do not need to reside in the country, they usually rent the accommo­ 21 % to 5 %; the exemption from the Municipal Property Tax for a period dations in the STR market. STR management companies confirm that of three years; and, in a clear strategy to open the local real estate market overall, 50 % of property owners are foreign investors, a large propor­ to global circuits of capital, the exemption of the Corporate Income Tax, tion of these being Golden Visa buyers. Furthermore, the programme which benefits real estate investment funds. can be used to participate in investment funds and are not only to buy Second, and crucially, the 2012 Lisbon Municipal Master Plan (Lis­ housing units. Interviews reveal that, to finance rehabilitation, de­ bon City Council, 2012a) categorises almost the entire city as an ‘urban velopers create investment funds where the minimum amount to rehabilitation area’, applying these fiscal benefits to neighbourhoods far participate is €350,000. By doing this, they benefit from the exemption beyond the central districts. In addition, the Master Plan liberalises of Corporate Income Tax while attracting Golden Visa investors to the previous regulations to allow a tacit change in land use from housing to operation. In our interviews, participants explained that STR apartment commercial purposes. The 2012 Plan replaced the 1994 Lisbon Munic­ blocks are usually funded in this way. Developers create partnerships ipal Master Plan (Lisbon City Council, 1994), which had recognised the with STR management companies and give Golden Visa investors the need to promote the residential function of the central city and bring option to rent the asset in the STR market; however, investors can also residents back. The 1994 Plan created restrictions for tertiary occupa­ choose options other than renting on Airbnb. Real estate consultants tion. These restrictions were eliminated in 2012, prioritising the needs of explained that rehabilitated buildings are also rented in the long-term private developers over urban planning. Coupled with the increased rental market to affluent users, who usually are privileged migrants. A growth of visitors, the liberalisation of the Master Plan allowed the third option is to leave the asset empty to obtain capital gain in the construction of hotels and STRs with no limitations. Additionally, it future. allowed tourism-oriented retail change, leading to an increase of res­ Hitherto, this paper has shown how the state, on the one hand, added taurants, bars, and nightlife venues (Nofre, 2021). In fact, the 2012 value to degraded buildings by absorbing and, therefore, reducing the Master Plan stated that the way to redevelop the central area of Santa cost of rehabilitation. On the other hand, the state has also given fiscal Maria Maior – the area called Baixa–, was through “the reinforcement of benefits to international buyers, stimulating an extra local demand. In the hotel and para-hotel offer and the qualification of commerce and this way, the state has further opened the rent gap and ensured that restaurants, developing an open-air shopping centre” (Lisbon City developers could obtain high returns. However, for capital to flow into Council, 2012a: 15). In other words, the 2012 Master Plan paved the the rehabilitation industry, the liberalisation of the rental market was way for the touristification of the central city. crucial, particularly because old rents were frozen in Portugal (Arbaci, Third, in order to captivate investors, both the national and the local 2019). This was in fact a prerequisite in the bailout signed by Portugal in states changed administrative requirements to simplify the licensing and 2011. In 2012 the national government approved the New Urban Lease monitorisation of rehabilitation works. This process started in 2007 with Law (Law 31/2012), which gives landlords more power to terminate the amendment of the Legal Regime for Urbanization and Building contracts and quicken eviction processes. All rental contracts signed (Decree-Law 60/2007) and concluded in 2014 with the Exceptional before 1990 were for a lifetime, but the new law ended this condition, Regime for Urban Rehabilitation (Decree-Law 53/2014). Fourth, public causing a wave of evictions starting in 2013 that mainly affected older funding programmes for rehabilitation were created with zero or low people who lived in degraded buildings (Barata-Salgueiro et al., 2017). interest rates, the use of which were largely orientated towards the In this regard, the lawyer of a development company told us: 5 A. Estevens et al. Cities 137 (2023) 104275 “To have an elderly tenant with a lifetime contract was very number of licences in Lisbon grew from 1006 to >19,000. In 2019, expensive for developers. To relocate this tenant may cost €80,000. municipalities were allowed to enact restrictions. The Lisbon City So, despite all fiscal benefits given to developers, the real driver of Council presented the Municipal Regulation for STRs, a zoning plan to rehabilitation was the new rental law”. halt new licences in some areas where >20 % of the housing stock was used for tourism purpose (Pavel et al., 2022). However, there are some In other words, while taxpayers assumed some costs of the redevel­ exceptions and developers can still obtain a STR licence if they reha­ opment process, a more substantial cost was assumed by the very bilitate degraded buildings (Dagkouli-Kyriakoglou et al., 2022). There­ vulnerable, who ultimately lost their homes. According to the National fore, state regulation and incentives have been crucial for the expansion Lease Desk, which was created to facilitate eviction processes, 2968 of STRs in Lisbon. renters were evicted in Lisbon between 2013 and 2018 (O Jornal Another type of strategy with a significant impact in tourism-led Económico, 2018). rehabilitation has been the selling and leasing of public properties to The rental law was paralleled with the liberalisation of the STR private developers. Once again, the state reduces the cost of redevel­ market. In 2014, the government created a STR register and a regulatory opment, this time by alienating their historic buildings at prices below framework for this activity (Decreet Law 128/2014). Between 2014 and the market or by conceding their use for several years. First, in 2012 the 2019, property owners could register easily by completing a simple Lisbon City Council launched the programme “Rehabilitate First, Pay online form. As there were no restrictions whatsoever, in this period, the Later” (Lisbon City Council, 2012b), which aims at promoting the Fig. 2. Compilation of policies described in the paper. Source: own elaboration. 6 A. Estevens et al. Cities 137 (2023) 104275 market-led rehabilitation of derelict municipal buildings. According to refers to one or several apartments, or if it does to the entire building. Bivar et al. (2017), using this programme, developers have mainly Between 2009 and 2021, 25 % of buildings underwent rehabilitation produced two products: STRs and luxury housing. Second, the national works. In the historic districts of Santa Maria Maior and Misericórdia, Revive programme (Law 41/2016), which has an implicit tourism-led the numbers were 32 % and 34 % respectively, while in Santo Antonio it rehabilitation objective, alienates publicly owned historic buildings. was 40.5 %. We should compare these numbers with other cities, but To date, there are three historic buildings granted in Lisbon under this having rehabilitated at least one apartment in one-third of these central programme, all of which will be converted into luxury hotels: Quartel da districts’ buildings over the last 10 years is an indicator of a remarkable Graça, Pombaline Palace on Rua da Prata, and Manteigueiro Palace. intensity, and it provides some evidence about the amount of capital that Finally, beyond these two programmes, there are several cases of flowed into this industry. Tables 2, 3, and 4 connect rehabilitation with alienation regarding public infrastructures that have been, or are in the hotels and STRs. Overall, data illustrates a dramatic change in use of process of being, converted into the same formula: hotels and luxury housing to STRs, and the degree of tourism-led rehabilitation in the housing. We refer to large historic infrastructures such as the Navy historic centre. However, it also further reveals that a complete change Hospital, part of the Santa Apolónia train station, or Monica’s Convent. from housing to touristic has not occurred. Fig. 3 illustrates the spatial For instance, the Navy Hospital was sold in 2016 (Order 3877/2016) to imprint of our data. the Stone Capital real estate investment fund, which intends to trans­ Considering the construction of hotels, 106 units opened in the five form it into a hotel and a private condominium. These operations mean central districts, of which 92.5 % are in rehabilitated buildings (Table 2). that many of the most iconic and representative buildings of the history Hotel-led rehabilitation is clear, but the number is low compared with of Lisbon will be enjoyed by luxury travellers and foreign investors the 19,301 registered STRs, which deserves special attention. A first (Fig. 2). point is the astonishing use of housing as STRs (Table 3). In the five In sum, the entrepreneurial approach to rehabilitation created a central districts, there is at least 1 STR in 50 % of buildings. However, fiscal and regulatory framework which reduced the cost for developers the number is higher in Santa Maria Maior and Misericórdia, reaching and, at the same time, allowed them to build any type of real estate 74 % and 65 % respectively (Fig. 3), while in the rest of the city it is 8 %. product with no limitation. In addition, interviews with industry players Therefore, the geography of touristification is uneven and is clearly confirmed that these policies opened the local rehabilitation industry to concentrated in the historic centre. Table 3 further demonstrates the foreign investors. The participant from the consultancy JLL stated that distribution of STRs per building and the percentage of STRs existing in French, Spanish, and German rehabilitation companies settled in Lisbon, rehabilitated buildings. Data reveals that in buildings with a greater and mentioned that “their clients are usually buyers in their countries of number of STRs more rehabilitation licences have been issued. For origin, who acquire a refurbished product for second homes or pure example, in Misericordia, a rehabilitation licence has been received in investment”. It has been demonstrated that these second home buyers two thirds of the buildings with six or more tourist apartments, while typically rent the apartments in the STR market when they are not in this is only the case in one third of the buildings with one or two tourist Lisbon (Cocola-Gant & Gago, 2021; Montezuma & Mcgarrigle, 2019). apartments. The representative of the consultancy CBRE recognised that “policy With the aim of estimating the number of buildings which are changes helped to put Lisbon on the radar of global investors”. She entirely used as STRs, we have identified buildings with 6 or more STRs further explained that the lack of zoning limitations was key to (Table 3). According to the census, in Lisbon, the average number of encourage redevelopment and stated: apartments in a building block is 7.8, but this number is lower in the historic area given that the structures are smaller. In the central districts, “Despite all fiscal benefits, the price of the rehabilitated product is we identified 415 apartment blocks having 6 or more STRs, meaning too expensive to build housing for the local population. It is no that it is very likely that these buildings are de-facto hotels. Interest­ coincidence that rehabilitation is for tourism and for international ingly, 54 % of these buildings were rehabilitated, but in Santa Maria buyers”. Maior and Misericordia, the category of ≥6 STRs in rehabilitated In other words, it seems that rehabilitation created housing for buildings is 58 % and 64 % respectively (Fig. 3). In these districts, the affluent users as well as hotels and STRs. In the next section we will degree in which rehabilitation gave way to entire buildings used as STRs explore how these two processes coexist and reveal their geography in is significant. the city. In Table 3, another relevant category is buildings with 3–5 STRs. In the historic centre of Lisbon, it is common to find small structures of two 6. The weight of tourism within the rehabilitation of Lisbon or three floors having 1 apartment per floor. We offer an estimate, but it is likely that a significant proportion of buildings with 3–5 STRs may be Table 1 indicates the number and percentage of buildings with a used as de facto hotels as well. In the central districts, the number of rehabilitation licence in the five central districts. By rehabilitated buildings with 3–5 STRs is 1253. Among these, in Santa Maria Maior and building we designate that building in which at least one rehabilitation Misericórdia, 36 % and 42 % are in a building that received a rehabil­ licence has been granted, although we do not know if the rehabilitation itation licence (Fig. 3). Finally, the last category is apartment blocks Table 1 Table 2 Number of buildings and rehabilitation licences, 2009–2021. New hotels since 2009 and rehabilitation. # # Buildings with Rehabilitated # # Hotels in a % Hotels located in a Buildings rehabilitation licences buildings (%) Hotels rehabilitated building rehabilitated building 5 central districts 11,915 3013 25.3 % 5 central districts 106 98 92.5 % Santa Maria 2426 791 32.6 % Santa Maria 46 44 95.7 % Maior Maior Misericordia 2233 771 34.5 % Misericordia 8 8 100 % Arroios 3320 558 16.8 % Arroios 21 17 81.0 % Santo Antonio 1609 652 40.5 % Santo Antonio 29 27 93.1 % Sao Vicente 2327 241 10.4 % Sao Vicente 2 2 100 % Rest of the city 40,581 4169 10.3 % Rest of the city 31 19 61,3 % Lisbon 52,496 7182 13,7 % Lisbon 137 117 85,4 % Sources: INE and Lisbon City Council. Sources: Lisbon City Council, National Tourism Register. 7 A. Estevens et al. Cities 137 (2023) 104275 having 1–2 STRs. There are 4295 buildings in this category in the central districts, of which 26.8 % are in buildings that received a rehabilitation licence. rehabilitated No STR in a Table 4 illustrates to what extent rehabilitation gave way to tourism building 10.8 % 18.2 % 22.0 % 26.1 % 13.9 % 39.6 % accommodation. In Santa Maria Maior, considering both hotels and 6.2 % 9.6 % STRs, there is tourism accommodation in 82.3 % of buildings that received a rehabilitation licence. It is also true that 42.6 % refers to rehabilitated building buildings with 1–2 STRs, and therefore these buildings may have mixed Buildings with tour. uses. In either case, it seems clear that redevelopment gave way to the apts. located in a touristification of the historic centre in terms of significant touristic use 6 or more STRs in the building of the housing stock, and this should be related to the loss of population and households in the area. However, data further illustrates that 50.8 % 54.5 % 58.2 % 64.8 % 41.5 % 47.8 % 29.0 % 30.7 % touristification is never complete in the sense that rehabilitation also (%) produced buildings for other uses as well as tourism accommodation. Rehabilitation in the district of Santo Antonio affected 40.5 % of # Buildings with apts. buildings (Table 1), but 54.1 % of these works were for non-tourist use (Table 4). The qualitative research suggested that these non-touristic 415 177 108 490 53 46 31 75 uses are luxury housing which tend to cater to transnational in­ dividuals, both buyers and renters. Fig. 4 reveals housing prices by rehabilitated building district between 2007 and 2020 and confirms this trend. It indicates a Buildings with STRs sharp increase in housing prices after 2013, and that prices are far above the average in the three districts with more rehabilitation, with Santo located in a Antonio being the most expensive district. Fig. 4 further shows that 3–5 STRs in the building 33.1 % 35.6 % 36.4 % 42.3 % 26.2 % 44.1 % 24.2 % 23.2 % rehabilitated buildings are far more expensive than the average price, (%) confirming the suggestion from CBRE that the rehabilitated product is likely to be bought by international buyers. Therefore, tourism-led rehabilitation has a clear spatial pattern in Santa Maria Maior and # Buildings with STRs Misericórdia (Fig. 3), but it should be understood as part of a larger cycle 459 310 195 136 153 310 1253 1563 of disinvestment and redevelopment, coexisting with transnational gentrification. rehabilitated building Buildings with STRs 7. Conclusions In this paper we have contributed to the debate on the tour­ located in a istification of central spaces from a political economy perspective, 1–2 STRs in the building 21.7 % 26.8 % 29.0 % 34.5 % 18.0 % 35.1 % 15.4 % 14.8 % highlighting the relationship between the state, tourism, and urban (%) redevelopment. We provided empirical evidence showing that tour­ istification does not simply respond to the spontaneous operation of the # Buildings with STRs. market, challenging the argument that the process is mainly driven by platforms such as Airbnb. Instead, the state played an essential role in 885 541 657 4295 1164 1048 3189 7484 attracting real estate capital and encouraged it to be invested in in­ frastructures for tourist uses with no restrictions. In fact, the state advocated and paved the way for a tourism-led redevelopment process rehabilitated building Buildings with STRs even before the global success of Airbnb. In explaining touristification in Lisbon, is important to consider the located in a multi-scalar state intervention and the intensification of neoliberalism after the 2008 financial crisis. The national and local states advocated 25.0 % 30.5 % 33.7 % 38.4 % 20.5 % 37.6 % 17.5 % 15.9 % (%) for tourism-led redevelopment since the late 1990s. However, as in other places in Southern Europe (Hadjimichalis, 2017), in the last decade the Sources: Lisbon City Council, National Tourism Register. EU disciplined governments imposing austerity and liberalisation of with STRs Buildings different sectors, including tourism and real estate. In this context, the 18.2 % 50.0 % 74.2 % 65.7 % 34.1 % 44.9 % 36.1 % Rehabilitated buildings with STRs 8.8 % way out of the 2008 financial crisis was the creation of an ad-hoc (%) framework to enhance tourism development on the one hand, and to give tax benefits to developers and international buyers in real estate on # Buildings the other (Jover & Cocola-Gant, 2023). The result has been an accu­ with STRs Short-term rentals and rehabilitation. mulation strategy based on the nexus among tourism, transnational 5963 1800 1466 1133 3579 9542 723 841 demand, and property markets. This nexus has been highlighted in different Southern European countries (Murray, 2015) and, ultimately, consolidated the unequal division of labour foreseen by Lefebvre in # STRs 4734 3537 2209 1678 1616 5527 13,774 19,301 Total which the peripheral European South has become a region “exploited for the purpose of and by means of the consumption of space” (1991: 353). Our findings further show that, from a production-side perspective, Rest of the city Misericordia Santa Maria Sao Vicente touristification in this case cannot be separated from a broader gentri­ Antonio districts Arroios 5 central fication process; that is, a cycle of disinvestment of the urban core fol­ Maior Santo Table 3 Lisbon lowed by capital investment, and the consequent closing of the rent gap by private developers (Smith, 1996). The aim of state intervention was 8 A. Estevens et al. Cities 137 (2023) 104275 Table 4 Percentage of tourism accommodation in rehabilitated buildings. Rehabilitated building with tourism accommodation No tourism accommodation in the building Hotels (since STRs STRs (1–2 apts. in the STRs (3–5 apts. in the STRs (6 or more apts. in the 2009) (All) building) building) building) 5 central districts 3.3 % 60.4 % 38.1 % 14.8 % 7.5 % 36.3 % Santa Maria 5.6 % 76.7 % 42.6 % 21.1 % 13.0 % 17.7 % Maior Misericordia 1.0 % 73.0 % 47.0 % 17.0 % 9.1 % 25.9 % Arroios 3.0 % 41.6 % 28.5 % 9.1 % 3.9 % 55.4 % Santo Antonio 4.1 % 41.7 % 29.1 % 9.2 % 3.4 % 54.1 % Sao Vicente 0.8 % 61.0 % 41.9 % 15.4 % 3.7 % 38.2 % Rest of the city 0.5 % 13.6 % 11.3 % 1.7 % 0.6 % 85.9 % Lisbon 1.6 % 33.3 % 22.6 % 7.2 % 3.5 % 65.1 % Sources: Lisbon City Council, National Tourism Register. Fig. 3. Rehabilitation and tourism accommodation in the five central districts of Lisbon, 2009–2021. Source: own elaboration from Lisbon City Council, National Tourism Register. to counter the abandonment of the central city by both giving facilities continued investment because of the absence of effective demand. The to real estate capital and bringing an international demand able to effective demand in this case has much to do with the arrival of trans­ stimulate the local real estate market. It is interesting here to see the role national consumers as a way to stimulate the economy, particularly the of the nexus tourism-real estate in reinterpreting Marcuse’s (1985) real estate sector. Marcuse further noted that the entrepreneurial cure conception of gentrification and abandonment. According to Marcuse for abandonment has usually been state-led gentrification. The policy (1985: 199) abandonment (by capital) occurs when all those having a assumption is that “especially in a time of fiscal stress, the public sector private profit-oriented economic interest in a place lose any incentive for cannot hope to counter abandonment alone. Only full use of private 9 A. Estevens et al. Cities 137 (2023) 104275 Fig. 4. Housing prices in Lisbon and in the five central districts, 2007–2020. Source: Confidencial Imobiliário. sector resources can do this” (Marcuse, 1985: 196). This is exactly the Methodology, Writing, Project administration-Management, Funding kind of intervention that we explored in this paper, where the state acquisition. allowed market actors to put housing into the ‘highest and best use’ with Antonio López-Gay: Investigation, Methodology, Visualisation. no limitations. In the historic centre, market actors have mainly built Fabiana Pavel: Investigation, Writing. tourist accommodation, driving the touristification of the city. As in other Southern European places (Carvalho et al., 2019; Picone, 2021; Funding Rossi, 2022), touristification in this case is encouraged by the position of Lisbon in the global spatial division of labour. That is, a leisure space for his work was supported by the European Commission Horizon2020 transnational consumers, without which the property sector would have Marie Skłodowska-Curie Action, IF-2019, number: 891785; the Euro­ not been stimulated. pean Commission Horizon 2020 RIA program under Grant Agreement It is ironic that the EU bailout imposed the liberalisation of the pri­ no. 870753; and by the Portuguese Science and Technology Research vate rental market, arguing that regulations were not allowing the cor­ Council (FCT) [grant number PTDC/GES-URB/30551/2017]. Antonio rect function of the sector, in the sense that a more flexible rental law López-Gay acknowledges support from Talent Programme, Universitat would incentivise landlords to put more supply into the rental housing Autònoma de Barcelona; CERCA Programme, Generalitat de Catalunya. market (Arbaci, 2019). The opposite outcome actually happened in the historic centre, to the extent that as hundreds of buildings lost their Declaration of competing interest residential function, the number of households decreased 18 % in the period 2011–2021. In the area of Santa Maria Maior, where the con­ The authors declare no conflict of interest. centration of STRs is higher, the loss of households was 29 %. 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