9371ebfedd87d690ae46ac9d77294d67 Lan_a2023v12n8p1509.pdf 543abdd58a86445325442f579b9d52f989c023e1 Lan_a2023v12n8p1509.pdf 50cf8bf31b348c6b4effc7e9d0be5a41af378f30697cfedaa49c6d35e64adf4e Lan_a2023v12n8p1509.pdf Title: War and Deforestation: Using Remote Sensing and Machine Learning to Identify the War-Induced Deforestation in Syria 2010–2019 Subject: Armed conflicts and other types of violence are key drivers of human-induced landscape change. Since March 2011, Syria has been embroiled in a prolonged and devastating armed conflict causing immense human suffering and extensive destruction. As a result, over five million people have been forced to seek refuge outside the country’s borders, while more than six million have been internally displaced. This study focuses on examining the impact of this conflict on forest cover by identifying the drivers of forest change. To assess this change, Landsat and PALSAR imagery were used to differentiate between forested and non-forested areas. Spectral information was synthetized using the Tasseled Cap transformation and the time series data was simplified and despiked using the LandTrendr algorithm. Our results show that between 2010 and 2019 there was a substantial decrease of 19.3% in forest cover, predominantly concentrated in the northwestern region of Syria. This decline was induced by the armed conflict, with several key drivers contributing to the decline, such as illegal logging activities conducted by both locals and refugees living in nearby forest areas. Drivers such as proximity to refugee camps, roads, and settlements played an important role in producing this change by facilitating access to forests. In addition, the occurrence of explosive events such as bombings and shelling near forests also contributed to this decline by causing forest fires. To mitigate further deforestation and reduce dependence on forests for fuel, it is crucial for local governments in the post-conflict period to offer sustainable alternatives for heating and cooking to both the local populations and refugees. Additionally, governments are recommended to enforce strict laws and regulations to protect forests and combat illegal logging activities. These measures are essential for preserving and restoring forests, promoting environmental sustainability, and ensuring the well-being of both displaced populations and local communities. Keywords: armed conflict; forest cover change; displacement; remote sensing; deforestation Author: Angham Daiyoub, Pere Gelabert, Sandra Saura-Mas and Cristina Vega-Garcia Creator: LaTeX with hyperref Producer: pdfTeX-1.40.21 CreationDate: Mon Jul 31 05:21:47 2023 CEST ModDate: Mon Jul 31 05:27:26 2023 CEST Custom Metadata: no Metadata Stream: no Tagged: no UserProperties: no Suspects: no Form: none JavaScript: no Pages: 18 Encrypted: no Page size: 595.276 x 841.89 pts (A4) Page rot: 0 File size: 4129754 bytes Optimized: no PDF version: 1.7 name type encoding emb sub uni object ID ------------------------------------ ----------------- ---------------- --- --- --- --------- RBYYVQ+VnURWPalladioL Type 1 Custom yes yes no 10 0 BVHXAN+URWPalladioL-Bold Type 1 Custom yes yes no 15 0 IINBFF+URWPalladioL-Roma Type 1 Custom yes yes no 20 0 VAGPMG+URWPalladioL-Ital Type 1 Custom yes yes no 24 0 VQJIRC+TimesNewRomanPS-BoldItalicMT Type 1C WinAnsi yes yes no 42 0 VIWIOF+CMSY10 Type 1 Builtin yes 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Forests Destination: subsubsection.2.1.3 Item: Title: Landsat Imagery Destination: subsection.2.2 Item: Title: Palsar Data Destination: subsection.2.3 Item: Title: Response Variable Destination: subsection.2.4 Item: Title: Variable Selection and Modeling Destination: subsection.2.5 Item: Title: Deforestation Detection Destination: subsection.2.6 Item: Title: Auxiliary Analyses Destination: subsection.2.7 Item: Title: Results Destination: section.3 Children: Item: Title: Land Cover Models Performance Destination: subsection.3.1 Item: Title: Predictive Performance of the RF Models Destination: subsection.3.2 Item: Title: Overall Deforestation Patterns Destination: subsection.3.3 Item: Title: Continuous Variables: Distance to Roads, Urban Settlements, and Refugee Camps Destination: subsection.3.4 Item: Title: Discrete Variables: Intensity of Explosive Events Destination: subsection.3.5 Item: Title: Discussion Destination: section.4 Item: Title: Conclusions Destination: section.5 Item: Title: Appendix A Destination: section.A. Item: Title: References Destination: section.B. Info: Title: War and Deforestation: Using Remote Sensing and Machine Learning to Identify the War-Induced Deforestation in Syria 2010 2019 Author: Angham Daiyoub, Pere Gelabert, Sandra Saura-Mas and Cristina Vega-Garcia Subject: Armed conflicts and other types of violence are key drivers of human-induced landscape change. Since March 2011, Syria has been embroiled in a prolonged and devastating armed conflict causing immense human suffering and extensive destruction. As a result, over five million people have been forced to seek refuge outside the country’s borders, while more than six million have been internally displaced. This study focuses on examining the impact of this conflict on forest cover by identifying the drivers of forest change. To assess this change, Landsat and PALSAR imagery were used to differentiate between forested and non-forested areas. Spectral information was synthetized using the Tasseled Cap transformation and the time series data was simplified and despiked using the LandTrendr algorithm. Our results show that between 2010 and 2019 there was a substantial decrease of 19.3% in forest cover, predominantly concentrated in the northwestern region of Syria. This decline was induced by the armed conflict, with several key drivers contributing to the decline, such as illegal logging activities conducted by both locals and refugees living in nearby forest areas. Drivers such as proximity to refugee camps, roads, and settlements played an important role in producing this change by facilitating access to forests. In addition, the occurrence of explosive events such as bombings and shelling near forests also contributed to this decline by causing forest fires. To mitigate further deforestation and reduce dependence on forests for fuel, it is crucial for local governments in the post-conflict period to offer sustainable alternatives for heating and cooking to both the local populations and refugees. Additionally, governments are recommended to enforce strict laws and regulations to protect forests and combat illegal logging activities. These measures are essential for preserving and restoring forests, promoting environmental sustainability, and ensuring the well-being of both displaced populations and local communities. 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