cf567cbb1a115bdeec439b048e9a2a84 pmc_10747384.pdf a8e3f5c7b1bdc98462fd461f07a72e78d8b49e47 pmc_10747384.pdf 4a5b4e1e46e100fc1ab63bb1eeb766606accd51d8f8be3edc06bb267bf692f01 pmc_10747384.pdf Title: An Integrated Ecological Niche Modelling Framework for Risk Mapping of Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus Exposure in African Buffalo (Syncerus caffer) in the Greater Serengeti-Mara Ecosystem Subject: Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious viral disease of small ruminants that threatens livelihoods and food security in developing countries and, in some cases, wild ungulate species conservation. The Greater Serengeti-Mara Ecosystem (GSME) encompasses one of the major wildlife populations of PPR virus (PPRV)-susceptible species left on earth, although no clinical disease has been reported so far. This study aimed to gain further knowledge about PPRV circulation in the GSME by identifying which factors predict PPRV seropositivity in African buffalo (Syncerus caffer). Following an ecological niche modeling framework to map host-pathogen distribution, two models of PPRV exposure and buffalo habitat suitability were performed using serological data and buffalo censuses. Western Maasai Mara National Reserve and Western Serengeti National Park were identified as high-risk areas for PPRV exposure in buffalo. Variables related to wildlife-livestock interaction contributed to the higher risk of PPRV seropositivity in buffalo, providing supportive evidence that buffalo acquire the virus through contact with infected livestock. These findings can guide the design of cost-effective PPRV surveillance using buffalo as a sentinel species at the identified high-risk locations. As more intensive studies have been carried out in Eastern GSME, this study highlights the need for investigating PPRV dynamics in Western GSME. Keywords: African buffalo; disease risk mapping; spatial epidemiology; maxent; peste des petits ruminants virus; PPR; PPRV; Serengeti-Mara Author: Laura Carrera-Faja, Chris Yesson, Bryony A. Jones, Camilla T. O. Benfield and Richard A. Kock Creator: LaTeX with hyperref Producer: pdfTeX-1.40.21 CreationDate: Thu Dec 7 05:17:04 2023 CET ModDate: Thu Dec 7 05:23:27 2023 CET Tagged: no UserProperties: no Suspects: no Form: none JavaScript: no Pages: 16 Encrypted: no Page size: 595.276 x 841.89 pts (A4) Page rot: 0 File size: 3560937 bytes Optimized: no PDF version: 1.7 name type encoding emb sub uni object ID ------------------------------------ ----------------- ---------------- --- --- --- --------- KJSUBN+VnURWPalladioL Type 1 Custom yes yes no 10 0 GEZIUN+URWPalladioL-Bold Type 1 Custom yes yes no 15 0 DRMRIA+URWPalladioL-Roma Type 1 Custom yes yes no 20 0 YPWOFI+URWPalladioL-Ital Type 1 Custom yes yes no 24 0 EZOKOG+URWPalladioL-BoldItal Type 1 Custom yes yes no 28 0 UXHOAG+TimesNewRomanPS-BoldItalicMT Type 1C WinAnsi yes yes no 47 0 VORBJF+CMSY10 Type 1 Builtin yes yes no 72 0 BCDEEE+PalatinoLinotype-Bold TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 84 0 BCDFEE+PalatinoLinotype-Roman TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 88 0 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BCDIEE+PalatinoLinotype-Bold CID TrueType Identity-H yes yes yes 304 0 BCDKEE+PalatinoLinotype-Roman CID TrueType Identity-H yes yes yes 311 0 Jhove (Rel. 1.28.0, 2023-05-18) Date: 2024-01-11 02:29:37 CET RepresentationInformation: pmc_10747384.pdf ReportingModule: PDF-hul, Rel. 1.12.4 (2023-03-16) LastModified: 2024-01-09 02:28:39 CET Size: 3560937 Format: PDF Version: 1.7 Status: Well-Formed and valid SignatureMatches: PDF-hul MIMEtype: application/pdf PDFMetadata: Objects: 613 FreeObjects: 1 IncrementalUpdates: 0 DocumentCatalog: PageLayout: SinglePage PageMode: UseNone Outlines: Item: Title: Introduction Destination: section.1 Item: Title: Materials and Methods Destination: section.2 Children: Item: Title: Study Area Destination: subsection.2.1 Item: Title: Data Sources and Preparation Destination: subsection.2.2 Children: Item: Title: PPRV Seropositive Buffalos in the GSME Destination: subsubsection.2.2.1 Item: Title: Buffalo Presence Points in the GSME Destination: subsubsection.2.2.2 Item: Title: Selection of Predictor Variables of PPRV Antibody Positive Buffalo Herds Destination: subsubsection.2.2.3 Item: Title: Collinearity Analysis Destination: subsubsection.2.2.4 Item: Title: Modelling Habitat Suitability for PPRV and Buffalo Occurrence Destination: subsection.2.3 Item: Title: Results Destination: section.3 Children: Item: Title: Variable Contribution, Model Performance, and Response Curves Destination: subsection.3.1 Children: Item: Title: Buffalo Model Destination: subsubsection.3.1.1 Item: Title: PPRV Antibody Positive Buffalo Herd Model Destination: subsubsection.3.1.2 Item: Title: Habitat Suitability Maps Destination: subsection.3.2 Children: Item: Title: Buffalo Suitability Map Destination: subsubsection.3.2.1 Item: Title: PPRV Antibody Positive Buffalo Herd Suitability Map Destination: subsubsection.3.2.2 Item: Title: PPRV Antibody Positive Herd Suitability Considering the <50 PI Cut-Off Value Destination: subsection.3.3 Item: Title: Discussion Destination: section.4 Item: Title: References Destination: section.A. Info: Title: An Integrated Ecological Niche Modelling Framework for Risk Mapping of Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus Exposure in African Buffalo (Syncerus caffer) in the Greater Serengeti-Mara Ecosystem Author: Laura Carrera-Faja, Chris Yesson, Bryony A. Jones, Camilla T. O. Benfield and Richard A. Kock Subject: Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious viral disease of small ruminants that threatens livelihoods and food security in developing countries and, in some cases, wild ungulate species conservation. The Greater Serengeti-Mara Ecosystem (GSME) encompasses one of the major wildlife populations of PPR virus (PPRV)-susceptible species left on earth, although no clinical disease has been reported so far. This study aimed to gain further knowledge about PPRV circulation in the GSME by identifying which factors predict PPRV seropositivity in African buffalo (Syncerus caffer). Following an ecological niche modeling framework to map host-pathogen distribution, two models of PPRV exposure and buffalo habitat suitability were performed using serological data and buffalo censuses. Western Maasai Mara National Reserve and Western Serengeti National Park were identified as high-risk areas for PPRV exposure in buffalo. Variables related to wildlife-livestock interaction contributed to the higher risk of PPRV seropositivity in buffalo, providing supportive evidence that buffalo acquire the virus through contact with infected livestock. These findings can guide the design of cost-effective PPRV surveillance using buffalo as a sentinel species at the identified high-risk locations. As more intensive studies have been carried out in Eastern GSME, this study highlights the need for investigating PPRV dynamics in Western GSME. 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