caa06b18fcd2d29e820de13f61fccaca Sus_a2024v16n4p1548.pdf c41194cdafd2427885ad2d4d689ddbe7e97b6286 Sus_a2024v16n4p1548.pdf 39b3c76d33020e3599518179a9db0d2e66f3d1a4588f080f30ca63c50ee34edd Sus_a2024v16n4p1548.pdf Title: Assessing Hydropower Potential under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Scenarios Using Integrated Assessment Modelling Subject: The world is facing a global sustainability crisis affecting environmental systems and society. Addressing these issues requires a multi-dimensional approach that can integrate energy, water, and environment Systems, as well as provide scientific policy advice. In this study, an updated version of an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) was used, together with new data compatible with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) projections, to significantly improve the work developed before. SSP climate data (temperature, precipitation, and total radiative forcing) and socioeconomic data (population and GDP) were loaded into the IAM, together with different scenario parameters. By analyzing varying socioeconomic scenarios, mitigation efforts, and adaptation strategies, this study assesses their impact on primary energy demand and, consequently, their impact on hydropower potential production. Our results show diverse energy paths, strongly dependent on the future scenario. Energy demand could increase up to 160%; however, several projections foresee a decline in hydropower production to minus 46% due to both climate change and socioeconomic transformation. Our findings highlight the importance of considering a range of potential future scenarios in energy planning and policy development. The varied outcomes across the considered scenarios emphasize the need for flexibility in strategies to accommodate for uncertainties and address the challenges posed by divergent trajectories in hydropower use and renewable energy shares. Keywords: hydropower potential; IAM (Integrated Assessment Models); SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways); renewable energy; climate change impacts; mitigation and adaptation Author: Tomás Calheiros, Pedro Beça, Tiago Capela Lourenço, Lukas Eggler, Margarita Mediavilla, Noelia Ferreras-Alonso, Iván Ramos-Diez, Roger Samsó, Tiziano Distefano and Amandine Pastor Creator: LaTeX with hyperref Producer: pdfTeX-1.40.21 CreationDate: Mon Feb 12 09:43:37 2024 CET ModDate: Mon Feb 12 09:49:32 2024 CET Custom Metadata: no Metadata Stream: no Tagged: no UserProperties: no Suspects: no Form: none JavaScript: no Pages: 15 Encrypted: no Page size: 595.276 x 841.89 pts (A4) Page rot: 0 File size: 2342964 bytes Optimized: no PDF version: 1.7 name type encoding emb sub uni object ID ------------------------------------ ----------------- ---------------- --- --- --- --------- JFWOSQ+URWPalladioL-Bold Type 1 Custom yes yes no 10 0 LEWNKM+URWPalladioL-Roma Type 1 Custom yes yes no 15 0 JUONJG+URWPalladioL-Ital Type 1 Custom yes yes no 19 0 RCWOCU+VnURWPalladioL Type 1 Custom yes yes no 23 0 ENXZUH+VnURWPalladioL-Bold Type 1 Custom yes yes no 28 0 IZBVAO+TimesNewRomanPS-BoldItalicMT Type 1C WinAnsi yes yes no 46 0 GHFNBL+PalatinoLinotype,Bold TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 74 0 GHFNBN+PalatinoLinotype TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 77 0 GHFNBP+PalatinoLinotype,Italic TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 80 0 GHFNBL+PalatinoLinotype,Bold TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 97 0 GHFNBN+PalatinoLinotype TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 100 0 GHFNBP+PalatinoLinotype,Italic TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 103 0 GHFNBL+PalatinoLinotype,Bold TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 118 0 GHFNBN+PalatinoLinotype TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 121 0 GHFNBP+PalatinoLinotype,Italic TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 124 0 GHFNBL+PalatinoLinotype,Bold TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 138 0 GHFNBN+PalatinoLinotype TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 141 0 GHFNBP+PalatinoLinotype,Italic TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 144 0 GHFNBL+PalatinoLinotype,Bold TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 162 0 GHFNBN+PalatinoLinotype TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 165 0 GHFNBP+PalatinoLinotype,Italic TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 168 0 GHFNBL+PalatinoLinotype,Bold TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 182 0 GHFNBN+PalatinoLinotype TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 185 0 GHFNBP+PalatinoLinotype,Italic TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 188 0 GHFNBL+PalatinoLinotype,Bold TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 199 0 GHFNBN+PalatinoLinotype TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 202 0 GHFNBP+PalatinoLinotype,Italic TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 205 0 FXXUVH+CMSY10 Type 1 Builtin yes yes no 212 0 Jhove (Rel. 1.28.0, 2023-05-18) Date: 2024-05-14 02:43:26 CEST RepresentationInformation: Sus_a2024v16n4p1548.pdf ReportingModule: PDF-hul, Rel. 1.12.4 (2023-03-16) LastModified: 2024-05-13 15:47:45 CEST Size: 2342964 Format: PDF Version: 1.7 Status: Well-Formed and valid SignatureMatches: PDF-hul MIMEtype: application/pdf PDFMetadata: Objects: 385 FreeObjects: 1 IncrementalUpdates: 0 DocumentCatalog: PageLayout: SinglePage PageMode: UseNone Outlines: Item: Title: Introduction Destination: section.1 Item: Title: Materials and Methods Destination: section.2 Item: Title: Results Destination: section.3 Item: Title: Discussion Destination: section.4 Item: Title: Conclusions Destination: section.5 Item: Title: References Destination: section.A. Info: Title: Assessing Hydropower Potential under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Scenarios Using Integrated Assessment Modelling Author: Tomás Calheiros, Pedro Beça, Tiago Capela Lourenço, Lukas Eggler, Margarita Mediavilla, Noelia Ferreras-Alonso, Iván Ramos-Diez, Roger Samsó, Tiziano Distefano and Amandine Pastor Subject: The world is facing a global sustainability crisis affecting environmental systems and society. Addressing these issues requires a multi-dimensional approach that can integrate energy, water, and environment Systems, as well as provide scientific policy advice. In this study, an updated version of an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) was used, together with new data compatible with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) projections, to significantly improve the work developed before. SSP climate data (temperature, precipitation, and total radiative forcing) and socioeconomic data (population and GDP) were loaded into the IAM, together with different scenario parameters. By analyzing varying socioeconomic scenarios, mitigation efforts, and adaptation strategies, this study assesses their impact on primary energy demand and, consequently, their impact on hydropower potential production. Our results show diverse energy paths, strongly dependent on the future scenario. Energy demand could increase up to 160%; however, several projections foresee a decline in hydropower production to minus 46% due to both climate change and socioeconomic transformation. Our findings highlight the importance of considering a range of potential future scenarios in energy planning and policy development. The varied outcomes across the considered scenarios emphasize the need for flexibility in strategies to accommodate for uncertainties and address the challenges posed by divergent trajectories in hydropower use and renewable energy shares. 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