b228534c795e79ae1ecd99106579993c natscirev_a2024m9v11n9pnwae292.pdf 3c6efea7bf24e34140dc29efb0f3a671802557a0 natscirev_a2024m9v11n9pnwae292.pdf 77615522d6f925d54846d1b79c08e82d8ee3226c70084d4f269c39c553a5e4ca natscirev_a2024m9v11n9pnwae292.pdf Title: Earlier peak photosynthesis timing potentially escalates global wildfires Subject: DOI: 10.1093/nsr/nwae292 National Science Review, 11, 0, 22-08-2024. Abstract: More intense fire weather due to climate change is implicated as a key driver of recent extreme wildfire events. As fuel stock, the role of vegetation and its phenology changes in wildfire dynamics, however is not fully appreciated. Using long-term satellite-based burned areas and photosynthesis observations, we reveal that an earlier peak photosynthesis timing (PPT) potentially acts to escalate subsequent wildfires, with an increase in the global average burned fraction of 0.021% (∼2.20 Mha) for every additional day of PPT advancement. Satellite observations and Earth System modeling consistently show that this fire escalation is likely due to intensified drought conditions and increased fuel availability associated with the climate feedback arising from earlier PPT. Current fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models can reproduce the observed negative correlation between PPT and burned area but underestimate the strength of the relationship notably. Given the continued PPT advancement owing to climate change, the bioclimatic effects of vegetation phenology change suggest a potentially pervasive upward pressure on future wildfires. Keywords: vegetation photosynthesis phenology, wildfire, climate feedback, Earth System model Author: Lai Gengke, Li Jialing, Wang Jun, Wu Chaoyang, Zhang Yongguang, Zohner Constantin M., Peñuelas Josep, Ge Quansheng Creator: OUP Producer: Acrobat Distiller 10.0.0 (Windows); modified using iTextSharp 4.1.6 by 1T3XT CreationDate: Mon Sep 16 11:26:15 2024 CEST ModDate: Tue Jul 15 17:58:01 2025 CEST Custom Metadata: yes Metadata Stream: yes Tagged: yes UserProperties: no Suspects: no Form: none JavaScript: no Pages: 10 Encrypted: no Page size: 595.276 x 782.362 pts Page rot: 0 File size: 2185180 bytes Optimized: no PDF version: 1.3 name type encoding emb sub uni object ID ------------------------------------ ----------------- ---------------- --- --- --- --------- CMOKAH+ArnoPro-Bold Type 1C WinAnsi yes yes no 1170 0 CMOKAG+ArnoPro-Regular Type 1C Custom yes yes yes 55 0 CMOJPF+UniversLTStd-BoldCn Type 1C Custom yes yes yes 56 0 CMOJDJ+MTSY Type 1C Custom yes yes yes 57 0 CMOILL+CMSY10 Type 1C Custom yes yes yes 1171 0 CMOIKL+HelveticaNeueLTStd-MdCn Type 1C MacRoman yes yes no 1172 0 CMOIKK+UniversLTStd-LightCnObl Type 1C WinAnsi yes yes no 60 0 CMOIKJ+dummy-space Type 1C WinAnsi yes yes no 61 0 CMOIKI+UniversLTStd-LightCn Type 1C Custom yes yes yes 62 0 EHJXAB+ArialMT TrueType WinAnsi yes yes no 1 0 CMOLPM+RMTMI Type 1C Custom yes yes yes 58 0 CMOLPL+ArnoPro-Italic Type 1C WinAnsi yes yes no 59 0 CNBEDF+ArnoPro-BoldItalic Type 1C Custom yes yes yes 261 0 Jhove (Rel. 1.28.0, 2023-05-18) Date: 2025-07-16 02:40:57 CEST RepresentationInformation: natscirev_a2024m9v11n9pnwae292.pdf ReportingModule: PDF-hul, Rel. 1.12.4 (2023-03-16) LastModified: 2025-07-15 17:59:48 CEST Size: 2185180 Format: PDF Version: 1.3 Status: Well-Formed and valid SignatureMatches: PDF-hul MIMEtype: application/pdf Profile: Tagged PDF PDFMetadata: Objects: 1220 FreeObjects: 1 IncrementalUpdates: 0 DocumentCatalog: ViewerPreferences: HideToolbar: false HideMenubar: false HideWindowUI: false FitWindow: false CenterWindow: false DisplayDocTitle: true NonFullScreenPageMode: UseNone Direction: L2R ViewArea: CropBox ViewClip: CropBox PrintArea: CropBox PageClip: CropBox PageLayout: TwoColumn PageMode: UseOutlines Language: English Outlines: Item: Title: INTRODUCTION Destination: section*.2 Item: Title: RESULTS Destination: section*.4 Children: Item: Title: Global trend in PPT and its control of burned area Destination: section*.6 Item: Title: Causal mechanisms for the linkage between PPT and burned area Destination: section*.8 Item: Title: CESM simulations of PPT feedback to climate Destination: section*.10 Item: Title: Diagnosis of global fire sensitivity to PPT in FireMIP models Destination: section*.12 Item: Title: DISCUSSION Destination: section*.14 Item: Title: CONCLUSIONS Destination: section*.16 Item: Title: DATA AND METHODS Destination: section*.18 Item: Title: SUPPLEMENTARY DATA Destination: section*.20 Item: Title: FUNDING Destination: section*.22 Item: Title: AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS Destination: section*.24 Item: Title: REFERENCES Destination: section*.26 Info: Title: Earlier peak photosynthesis timing potentially escalates global wildfires Author: Lai Gengke, Li Jialing, Wang Jun, Wu Chaoyang, Zhang Yongguang, Zohner Constantin M., Peñuelas Josep, Ge Quansheng Subject: DOI: 10.1093/nsr/nwae292 National Science Review, 11, 0, 22-08-2024. Abstract: More intense fire weather due to climate change is implicated as a key driver of recent extreme wildfire events. As fuel stock, the role of vegetation and its phenology changes in wildfire dynamics, however is not fully appreciated. Using long-term satellite-based burned areas and photosynthesis observations, we reveal that an earlier peak photosynthesis timing (PPT) potentially acts to escalate subsequent wildfires, with an increase in the global average burned fraction of 0.021% (∼2.20 Mha) for every additional day of PPT advancement. Satellite observations and Earth System modeling consistently show that this fire escalation is likely due to intensified drought conditions and increased fuel availability associated with the climate feedback arising from earlier PPT. Current fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models can reproduce the observed negative correlation between PPT and burned area but underestimate the strength of the relationship notably. Given the continued PPT advancement owing to climate change, the bioclimatic effects of vegetation phenology change suggest a potentially pervasive upward pressure on future wildfires. 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Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of China Science Publishing & Media Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. All Rights Reserved application/pdf doi:10.1093/nsr/nwae292 © The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of China Science Publishing & Media Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Lai Gengke Li Jialing Wang Jun Wu Chaoyang Zhang Yongguang Zohner Constantin M. Peñuelas Josep Ge Quansheng Oxford University Press DOI: 10.1093/nsr/nwae292 National Science Review, 11, 0, 22-08-2024. Abstract: More intense fire weather due to climate change is implicated as a key driver of recent extreme wildfire events. As fuel stock, the role of vegetation and its phenology changes in wildfire dynamics, however is not fully appreciated. Using long-term satellite-based burned areas and photosynthesis observations, we reveal that an earlier peak photosynthesis timing (PPT) potentially acts to escalate subsequent wildfires, with an increase in the global average burned fraction of 0.021% (∼2.20 Mha) for every additional day of PPT advancement. Satellite observations and Earth System modeling consistently show that this fire escalation is likely due to intensified drought conditions and increased fuel availability associated with the climate feedback arising from earlier PPT. Current fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models can reproduce the observed negative correlation between PPT and burned area but underestimate the strength of the relationship notably. Given the continued PPT advancement owing to climate change, the bioclimatic effects of vegetation phenology change suggest a potentially pervasive upward pressure on future wildfires. vegetation photosynthesis phenology wildfire climate feedback Earth System model Earlier peak photosynthesis timing potentially escalates global wildfires Lai Gengke, Li Jialing, Wang Jun, Wu Chaoyang, Zhang Yongguang, Zohner Constantin M., Peñuelas Josep, Ge Quansheng uuid:3c0e78d2-3059-3600-b6b2-283fa19c188f uuid:926390be-71d1-4042-9cb4-858ce1a7babe True Pages: Page: Label: 1 Annotations: Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 417, 717, 540, 728 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 191, 589, 197, 601 Destination: 417 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 198, 589, 205, 601 Destination: 417 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 205, 589, 212, 601 Destination: 417 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 258, 589, 265, 601 Destination: 417 Annotation: Subtype: Link Rect: 266, 589, 272, 601 Destination: 417 Annotation: Subtype: Link 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