ba866aab5bcace020a73827e9dc62534 pmc_7616816.pdf 932c1a12433078b640590b5b1617ff3856ad64af pmc_7616816.pdf 9eea1ba33d836ce76c83cf8294f8dd1289fe92d4509dd3799aa1af905803e292 pmc_7616816.pdf Title: The 2024 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: facing record-breaking threats from delayed action Author: Marina Romanello, Maria Walawender, Shih-Che Hsu, Annalyse Moskeland, Yasna Palmeiro-Silva, Daniel Scamman, Zakari Ali, Nadia Ameli, Denitsa Angelova, Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson, Sara Basart, Jessica Beagley, Paul J Beggs, Luciana Blanco-Villafuerte, Wenjia Cai, Max Callaghan, Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, Jonathan D Chambers, Victoria Chicmana-Zapata, Lingzhi Chu, Troy J Cross, Kim R van Daalen, Carole Dalin, Niheer Dasandi, Shouro Dasgupta, Michael Davies, Robert Dubrow, Matthew J Eckelman, James D Ford, Chris Freyberg, Olga Gasparyan, Georgiana Gordon-Strachan, Michael Grubb, Samuel H Gunther, Ian Hamilton, Yun Hang, Risto Hänninen, Stella Hartinger, Kehan He, Julian Heidecke, Jeremy J Hess, Louis Jamart, Slava Jankin, Harshavardhan Jatkar, Ollie Jay, Ilan Kelman, Harry Kennard, Gregor Kiesewetter, Patrick Kinney, Dominic Kniveton, Rostislav Kouznetsov, Pete Lampard, Jason KW Lee, Bruno Lemke, Bo Li, Yang Liu, Zhao Liu, Alba Llabrés-Brustenga, Melissa Lott, Rachel Lowe, Jaime Martinez-Urtaza, Mark Maslin, Lucy McAllister, Celia McMichael, Zhifu Mi, James Milner, Kelton Minor, Jan Minx, Nahid Mohajeri, Natalie C Momen, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Karyn Morrisey, Simon Munzert, Kris A Murray, Nick Obradovich, Megan B O’Hare, Camile Oliveira, Tadj Oreszczyn, Matthias Otto, Fereidoon Owfi, Olivia L Pearman, Frank Pega, Andrew J Perishing, Ana-Catarina Pinho-Gomes, Jamie Ponmattam, Mahnaz Rabbaniha, Jamie Rickman, Elizabeth Robinson, Joacim Rocklöv, David Rojas-Rueda, Renee N Salas, Jan C Semenza, Jodi D Sherman, Joy Shumake-Guillemot, Pratik Singh, Henrik Sjödin, Jessica Slater, Mikhail Sofiev, Cecilia Sorensen, Marco Springmann, Zélie Stalhandske, Jennifer D Stowell, Meisam Tabatabaei, Jonathon Taylor, Daniel Tong, Cathryn Tonne, Marina Treskova, Joaquin A Trinanes, Andreas Uppstu, Fabian Wagner, Laura Warnecke, Hannah Whitcombe, Peng Xian, Carol Zavaleta-Cortijo, Chi Zhang, Ran Zhang, Shihui Zhang, Ying Zhang, Qiao Zhu, Peng Gong, Hugh Montgomery, Anthony Costello Creator: Antenna House Formatter V7.3 MR1 Linux : 7.3.2.60453 (2023-03-06T13:41+09) Producer: Antenna House PDF Output Library 7.3.1863 CreationDate: Mon Nov 18 04:10:36 2024 CET ModDate: Mon Nov 18 04:10:36 2024 CET Custom Metadata: no Metadata Stream: yes Tagged: yes UserProperties: no Suspects: no Form: none JavaScript: no Pages: 109 Encrypted: no Page size: 612 x 792 pts (letter) Page rot: 0 File size: 4857233 bytes Optimized: no PDF version: 1.5 name type encoding emb sub uni object ID ------------------------------------ ----------------- ---------------- --- --- --- --------- Times-Roman Type 1 Custom no no yes 12 0 Times-Bold Type 1 Custom no no yes 15 0 Times-BoldItalic Type 1 Standard no no no 23 0 Helvetica-Bold Type 1 Custom no no yes 30 0 Helvetica-BoldOblique Type 1 Standard no no no 31 0 Helvetica-Oblique Type 1 Standard no no no 47 0 Helvetica Type 1 Custom no no yes 1364 0 Jhove (Rel. 1.28.0, 2023-05-18) Date: 2025-02-06 02:43:50 CET RepresentationInformation: pmc_7616816.pdf ReportingModule: PDF-hul, Rel. 1.12.4 (2023-03-16) LastModified: 2024-12-06 02:29:16 CET Size: 4857233 Format: PDF Version: 1.5 Status: Well-Formed and valid SignatureMatches: PDF-hul MIMEtype: application/pdf Profile: Tagged PDF PDFMetadata: Objects: 0 FreeObjects: 581 IncrementalUpdates: 0 DocumentCatalog: ViewerPreferences: HideToolbar: false HideMenubar: false HideWindowUI: false FitWindow: false CenterWindow: false DisplayDocTitle: false NonFullScreenPageMode: UseNone Direction: L2R ViewArea: CropBox ViewClip: CropBox PrintArea: CropBox PageClip: CropBox PageLayout: SinglePage PageMode: UseOutlines Language: EN Outlines: Item: Title: Executive summary Item: Title: Introduction Children: Item: Title: Advancing science and evidence for health-centred action on climate change Item: Title: Rising to the challenge Item: Title: Closing the data gap for a healthy future Item: Title: section 1: health hazards, exposures, and impacts Children: Item: Title: Heat and health Children: Item: Title: Indicator 1.1.1: exposure of vulnerable populations to heatwaves headline finding: in 2023, infants and adults older than 65 years experienced a new record high of 13·8 days of heatwave per person, on average Item: Title: Indicator 1.1.2: heat and physical activity headline finding: on average, in 2023, people were exposed to a record 27·7% more hours per year during which ambient heat posed at least a moderate risk of heat stress during light outdoor exercise, compared with 1990 99 Item: Title: Indicator 1.1.3: change in labour capacity headline finding: a record high of 512 billion potential work hours were lost in 2023, 49% above the 1990 99 average Item: Title: Indicator 1.1.4: rising night-time temperatures and sleep loss headline finding: sleep hours lost due to high temperatures increased by 5% between 1986 2005 and 2019 23, reaching a record 6% in 2023 Item: Title: Indicator 1.1.5: heat-related mortality headline finding: because of climate change, people faced, on average, a record 50 more days of health-threatening heat in 2023 than expected without temperature change Item: Title: Health and extreme weather-related events Children: Item: Title: Indicator 1.2.1: wildfires headline finding: the average number of days of human exposure to very high or extremely high fire danger increased in 124 (66%) countries from 2003 07 to 2019 23 Item: Title: Indicator 1.2.2: drought headline finding: in 2023, 48% of the global land area was affected by at least 1 month of extreme drought, the second-highest level since 1951 Item: Title: Indicator 1.2.3: extreme precipitation headline finding: in 2014 23, 61% of all global land saw an increase in extreme precipitation events, compared with the 1961 90 average Item: Title: Indicator 1.2.4: sand and dust storms headline finding: on average, during 2018 22, 3·8 billion people were exposed to mean annual concentrations of PM10 from sand and desert dust that exceeded WHO guideline levels, up by 31% from 2003 07 Item: Title: Indicator 1.2.5: extreme weather and sentiment headline finding: in 2023, extreme heat events cumulatively worsened human sentiment by a record 53% more than the baseline average effect between 2006 and 2022 Item: Title: Climate suitability for infectious disease transmission Children: Item: Title: Indicator 1.3.1: dengue headline finding: the climatic suitability for the transmission of dengue by Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti increased by 46·3% and 10·7%, respectively, between 1951 60 and 2014 23 Item: Title: Indicator 1.3.2: malaria headline finding: between 1951 60 and 2014 23, an extra 17·1% of the global land area became suitable for the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum and an extra 21·8% for the transmission of Plasmodium vivax Item: Title: Indicator 1.3.3: Vibrio  headline finding: the environmental suitability for Vibrio transmission reached a record high in 2023, with 88 348 km of coastline with waters suitable for transmission in 2023, up by 14·8% from the previous record in 2018 Item: Title: Indicator 1.3.4: West Nile virus headline finding: the temperature suitability for the transmission of West Nile virus increased by 4·3% from 1951 60 to 2014 23 Item: Title: Food security and undernutrition Children: Item: Title: Headline finding: the higher frequency of heatwave days and drought months in 2022, compared with 1981 2010, was associated with 151 million more people experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity across 124 countries Item: Title: Conclusion Item: Title: Section 2: adaptation, planning, and resilience for health Children: Item: Title: Assessment and planning of health adaptation Children: Item: Title: Indicator 2.1.1: national assessments of climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation for health headline finding: as of December, 2023, 61% of the WHO member states that committed to building climate-resilient health systems through the COP26 Health Programme reported having completed a vulnerability and adaptation assessment, up from 17% the year before Item: Title: Indicator 2.1.2: National Adaptation Plans for health headline finding: as of December, 2023, 52% of WHO members that committed to building climate-resilient health systems through the COP26 Health Programme reported having developed an HNAP, up from just 6% the year before Item: Title: Indicator 2.1.3: city-level climate change risk assessments headline finding: in 2023, 937 (96%) of 979 cities reported having completed or expecting to soon complete city-level climate change risk assessments Item: Title: Enabling conditions, adaptation delivery, and implementation Children: Item: Title: Indicator 2.2.1: climate information for health headline finding: among World Meteorological Organization members, only 23% of ministries of health reported having public health surveillance systems that integrate meteorological information Item: Title: Indicator 2.2.2: benefits and harms of air conditioning headline finding: greenhouse gas emissions from air conditioning use increased by 8% from 2016 to 2021; 48·4% of households in very high HDI countries had air conditioning in 2021 but only 4·7% of those in low HDI countries Item: Title: Indicator 2.2.3: urban greenspace headline finding: between 2015 and 2023, the proportion of urban centres with at least moderate levels of greenness remained constant, at 28% Item: Title: Indicator 2.2.4: global multilateral funding for health adaptation programmes headline finding: in 2023, the Green Climate Fund (GCF) approved adaptation projects with potential health benefits for $423 million up by 137% from 2021 Item: Title: Indicator 2.2.5: detection of, preparedness for, and response to health emergencies headline finding: from 2022 to 2023, 48 (26%) of 185 WHO member states reported an increase in the implementation of health emergency management capacity, whereas 54 (29%) reported a decrease Item: Title: Indicator 2.2.6: climate and health education and training headline finding: in 2023, 70% (196) of 279 public health education institutions worldwide reported providing education in climate and health Item: Title: Vulnerabilities, health risk, and resilience to climate change Children: Item: Title: Indicator 2.3.1: vulnerability to severe mosquito-borne disease headline finding: the very high HDI country group was the only group in which vulnerability to severe Aedes-borne disease increased between 1990 99 and 2014 23, rising by 5·4% Item: Title: Indicator 2.3.2: lethality of extreme weather events headline finding: the mortality of extreme weather events decreased by 73% between 2000 09 and 2014 23 in countries with climate-informed health early warning systems but only decreased by 21% in countries without such systems Item: Title: Indicator 2.3.3: rising sea levels, migration, and displacement headline finding: in 2023, 157·3 million people were living less than 1 m above current sea levels Item: Title: Conclusion Item: Title: Section 3: mitigation actions and health co-benefits Children: Item: Title: Energy use, energy generation, and health Children: Item: Title: Indicator 3.1.1: energy systems and health headline finding: global CO2 emissions from the energy system reached an all-time high in 2023, 1·1% above 2022 levels Item: Title: Indicator 3.1.2: household energy use headline finding: shares of harmful biomass energy use in homes have decreased minimally, from 32% in 2016 to 30% in 2021, remaining at around 92% in low HDI countries Item: Title: Indicator 3.1.3: sustainable and healthy road transport headline finding: from 2016 to 2021, the share of road transport from electricity increased by only 0·19 percentage points Item: Title: Air quality and health co-benefits Children: Item: Title: Indicator 3.2.1: mortality from ambient air pollution by sector headline finding: deaths attributable to PM2·5 from fossil fuel combustion decreased 6·9% from 2·25 million in 2016 to 2·09 million in 2021 Item: Title: Indicator 3.2.2 household air pollution headline finding: indoor PM2·5 derived from the burning of solid household fuels resulted in 2·3 million deaths across 65 countries in 2020 Item: Title: Food, agriculture, and health co-benefits Children: Item: Title: Indicator 3.3.1: emissions from agricultural production and consumption headline finding: global agricultural emissions increased by 2·9% from 2016 to 2021; red meat and dairy contributed to 56% of agricultural emissions in 2021 Item: Title: Indicator 3.3.2: diet and health co-benefits headline finding: between 2016 and 2021, the burden of diet-related diseases increased from 141 deaths to 144 deaths per 100 000 people (+3%), including increases from 14 deaths to 16 deaths per 100 000 attributable to red meat intake (+9%) Item: Title: Tree cover loss Children: Item: Title: Headline finding: between 2016 and 2022, the world lost almost 182 million hectares of forest cover, 5% of global tree cover Item: Title: Health-care sector emissions and harms Children: Item: Title: Headline finding: in 2021, health-care sector-related greenhouse gas emissions were 9·5% higher than in 2020 and 36% higher than in 2016, and associated air pollution contributed to 4·6 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2021 Item: Title: Conclusion Item: Title: Section 4: economics and finance Children: Item: Title: The economic impact of climate change and its mitigation Children: Item: Title: Indicator 4.1.1: economic losses due to weather-related extreme events headline finding: in 2023, weather-related extreme events caused $212 billion in global economic losses Item: Title: Indicator 4.1.2: costs of heat-related mortality headline finding: the average annual monetised value of global heat-related mortality for 2019 2023 was $199 billion, an increase of 179% from 2000 04 Item: Title: Indicator 4.1.3: loss of earnings from heat-related labour capacity reduction headline finding: in 2023, the global potential income loss from labour capacity reduction due to extreme heat reached a record high of $835 billion Item: Title: Indicator 4.1.4: costs of the health impacts of air pollution headline finding: the monetised value of premature mortality due to air pollution reached a record high in 2021, amounting to $4·95 trillion, 14% above 2016 levels Item: Title: The transition to net zero carbon, health-supporting economies Children: Item: Title: Indicator 4.2.1: employment in low-carbon and high-carbon industries headline finding: global direct employment in fossil fuel extraction increased by 0·4% in 2022 to 11·8 million employees, and in the same year, direct and indirect employment in renewable energy grew by 8·1%, to 13·7 million employees Item: Title: Indicator 4.2.2: compatibility of fossil fuel company strategies with the Paris Agreement headline finding: as of March, 2024, the strategies of the 114 largest oil and gas companies have put them on track to exceed their share of greenhouse gas emissions consistent with limiting global heating to 1·5°C by 189% in 2040, up from the 173% excess projected in March, 2023 Item: Title: Indicator 4.2.3: stranded coal assets from the energy transition headline finding: the cumulative value of current assets in the global coal-fired power generation sector projected to be stranded between 2025 and 2034 will reach $164·5 billion Item: Title: Indicator 4.2.4: country preparedness for the transition to net zero headline finding: in 2023, all low HDI countries had transition preparedness scores below the global average, whereas 93% of very high HDI countries had scores above average Item: Title: Indicator 4.2.5: production-based and consumption-based attribution of CO2 and PM2·5 emissions headline finding: the very high HDI country group remained the only group with higher consumption-based emissions than production-based emissions for both CO2 and PM2·5 in 2022, with differences accounting for 3·7% and 6·1% of global total emissions, respectively Item: Title: Financial transitions for a healthy future Children: Item: Title: Indicator 4.3.1: clean energy investment headline finding: global clean energy investment grew 10% in 2023 to $1·9 trillion, exceeding fossil fuel investment by 73% Item: Title: Indicator 4.3.2: funds divested from fossil fuels headline finding: between 2008 and the end of 2023, $40·67 trillion was committed to fossil fuel divestment, with health-care institutions accounting for $54·3 billion Item: Title: Indicator 4.3.3: net value of fossil fuel subsidies and carbon prices headline finding: 84% of the 86 countries reviewed had a net-negative carbon price in 2022, generating a record net subsidy of $1·4 trillion to fossil fuels Item: Title: Indicator 4.3.4: fossil fuel and green sector bank lending headline finding: after a decade of growth, green sector lending declined by 8% from 2021 to 2022, and fossil fuel lending fell by 14% Item: Title: Conclusion Item: Title: Section 5: public and political engagement with health and climate change Children: Item: Title: Media engagement with health and climate change Children: Item: Title: Headline finding: in 2023, 24% of all newspaper articles on climate change mentioned health, a slight decline from 2022 Item: Title: Individual engagement with health and climate change Children: Item: Title: Headline finding: although individual engagement with health and climate change remained low in 2023, the number of views of Wikipedia articles on the human health effects of climate change has increased by 40% since 2022 Item: Title: Scientific engagement with health and climate change Children: Item: Title: Indicator 5.3.1: scientific articles on health and climate change headline finding: the number of scientific papers investigating the links between health and climate change increased by 7·4% in 2023, compared with 2022, reaching its highest recorded level Item: Title: Indicator 5.3.2: scientific engagement with the health impacts of climate change headline finding: 31% of the 54 414 studies published on health impacts of climate variables as of 2023 focus on cases in which changes in climate variables can be attributed to human influence, up by 117% from 2016 Item: Title: Political engagement with health and climate change Children: Item: Title: Indicator 5.4.1: government engagement headline finding: in 2023, 35% of governments mentioned health and climate change in their annual UN General Debate statements, compared with 50% in 2022 Item: Title: Indicator 5.4.2: engagement by international organisations headline finding: international organisations focused on climate mitigation and adaptation referred to the health co-benefits of climate mitigation in a record 20% of their X posts in 2023 Item: Title: Corporate sector engagement with health and climate change Children: Item: Title: Headline finding: corporate sector engagement with health and climate change increased to its highest level in 2023, with 60% of companies referring to the health dimensions of climate change in their UN Global Compact reports Item: Title: Conclusion Item: Title: Conclusion: the 2024 report of the Lancet Countdown Item: Title: References Item: Title: Figure 1 Item: Title: Figure 2 Item: Title: Figure 3 Item: Title: Figure 4 Item: Title: Figure 5 Item: Title: Figure 6 Item: Title: Figure 7 Item: Title: Figure 8 Item: Title: Figure 9 Item: Title: Figure 10 Item: Title: Figure 11 Item: Title: Figure 12 Item: Title: Figure 13 Item: Title: Figure 14 Item: Title: Figure 15 Item: Title: Figure 16 Filters: FilterPipeline: FlateDecode FilterPipeline: DCTDecode Images: Image: NisoImageMetadata: FormatName: image/png 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V7.3 MR1 Linux : 7.3.2.60453 (2023-03-06T13:41+09) 2024-11-17T22:10:36-05:00 The 2024 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: facing record-breaking threats from delayed action Marina Romanello, Maria Walawender, Shih-Che Hsu, Annalyse Moskeland, Yasna Palmeiro-Silva, Daniel Scamman, Zakari Ali, Nadia Ameli, Denitsa Angelova, Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson, Sara Basart, Jessica Beagley, Paul J Beggs, Luciana Blanco-Villafuerte, Wenjia Cai, Max Callaghan, Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, Jonathan D Chambers, Victoria Chicmana-Zapata, Lingzhi Chu, Troy J Cross, Kim R van Daalen, Carole Dalin, Niheer Dasandi, Shouro Dasgupta, Michael Davies, Robert Dubrow, Matthew J Eckelman, James D Ford, Chris Freyberg, Olga Gasparyan, Georgiana Gordon-Strachan, Michael Grubb, Samuel H Gunther, Ian Hamilton, Yun Hang, Risto Hänninen, Stella Hartinger, Kehan He, Julian Heidecke, Jeremy J Hess, Louis Jamart, Slava Jankin, Harshavardhan Jatkar, Ollie Jay, Ilan Kelman, Harry Kennard, Gregor Kiesewetter, Patrick Kinney, Dominic Kniveton, Rostislav Kouznetsov, Pete Lampard, Jason KW Lee, Bruno Lemke, Bo Li, Yang Liu, Zhao Liu, Alba Llabrés-Brustenga, Melissa Lott, Rachel Lowe, Jaime Martinez-Urtaza, Mark Maslin, Lucy McAllister, Celia McMichael, Zhifu Mi, James Milner, Kelton Minor, Jan Minx, Nahid Mohajeri, Natalie C Momen, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Karyn Morrisey, Simon Munzert, Kris A Murray, Nick Obradovich, Megan B O’Hare, Camile Oliveira, Tadj Oreszczyn, Matthias Otto, Fereidoon Owfi, Olivia L Pearman, Frank Pega, Andrew J Perishing, Ana-Catarina Pinho-Gomes, Jamie Ponmattam, Mahnaz Rabbaniha, Jamie Rickman, Elizabeth Robinson, Joacim Rocklöv, David Rojas-Rueda, Renee N Salas, Jan C Semenza, Jodi D Sherman, Joy Shumake-Guillemot, Pratik Singh, Henrik Sjödin, Jessica Slater, Mikhail Sofiev, Cecilia Sorensen, Marco Springmann, Zélie Stalhandske, Jennifer D Stowell, Meisam Tabatabaei, Jonathon Taylor, Daniel Tong, Cathryn Tonne, Marina Treskova, Joaquin A Trinanes, Andreas Uppstu, Fabian Wagner, Laura Warnecke, Hannah Whitcombe, Peng Xian, Carol Zavaleta-Cortijo, Chi Zhang, Ran Zhang, Shihui Zhang, Ying Zhang, Qiao Zhu, Peng Gong, Hugh Montgomery, Anthony Costello Pages: Page: Sequence: 1 Annotations: Annotation: Subtype: Link Contents: BY 4.0 Rect: 185, 635, 209, 643 LastModified: D:20241117221036-05'00' Annotation: Subtype: Link Contents: https://www.lancetcountdown.org/data-platform/ Rect: 349, 85, 505, 93 LastModified: D:20241117221036-05'00' Annotation: Subtype: Link Contents: https://www.rystadenergy Rect: 196, 72, 278, 80 LastModified: D:20241117221036-05'00' Page: Sequence: 2 Page: Sequence: 3 Page: Sequence: 4 Page: Sequence: 5 Page: Sequence: 6 Page: Sequence: 7 Page: Sequence: 8 Page: Sequence: 9 Annotations: Annotation: Subtype: Link Contents: Lancet Countdown’s online data visualisation platform Rect: 229, 720, 449, 730 LastModified: D:20241117221036-05'00' Page: Sequence: 10 Page: Sequence: 11 Page: Sequence: 12 Page: Sequence: 13 Page: Sequence: 14 Page: 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