07252ba34f372f8920460bd9601da81e fcaf243.pdf 0baf55cc7aab2564b195d403a05a2315033573fd fcaf243.pdf 9887ea2468bd71fa9059001cbd3464114b3bc0b5d8ce1f672cf5bc5d7d1ed459 fcaf243.pdf Title: Deep learning to predict progression independent of relapse activity at a first demyelinating event Subject: DOI: 10.1093/braincomms/fcaf243; Brain Communications, 7, 4, 2025-07-04.; Abstract: Progression independent of relapse activity is the main cause of irreversible disability in multiple sclerosis and is strongly associated with older age at symptom onset. Early and accurate prediction, at symptom onset, of which patients are at highest risk of progression independent of relapses, is an unmet need. This study aimed to develop a deep learning survival model using only routine MRI acquired at the first demyelinating attack to predict the risk of progression independent of relapses, and assess its ability to improve classical age-adjusted predictions. We analysed a prospective cohort of patients under 50, clinically assessed within three months of symptom onset, with available MRI (T1- and T2-Fluid-Attenuated Inversion Recovery sequences). An independent early multiple sclerosis cohort (≤1 year from symptom onset) from the Multiple Sclerosis Partners Advancing Technology and Health Soluti Keywords: multiple sclerosis; progression independent of relapse activity; predictive model; brain MRI; deep learning Author: Llucia Coll Creator: Servigistics Arbortext Advanced Print Publisher 11.1.4546/W-x64 Producer: PDFlib+PDI 9.0.7p3 (C++/Win64) CreationDate: Thu Jul 3 18:53:28 2025 CEST ModDate: Fri Jul 4 05:31:03 2025 CEST Custom Metadata: yes Metadata Stream: yes Tagged: yes UserProperties: no Suspects: no Form: AcroForm JavaScript: no Pages: 18 Encrypted: no Page size: 612.283 x 790.866 pts Page rot: 0 File size: 1740646 bytes Optimized: no PDF version: 1.6 name type encoding emb sub uni object ID ------------------------------------ ----------------- ---------------- --- --- --- --------- OJJTZY+GillSansMTStd-Medium Type 1C Custom yes yes yes 1409 0 ZVTQLO+GillSansMTStd-Bold Type 1C Custom yes yes yes 1389 0 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Destination: secfcaf243-s2.2 Children: Item: Title: Original cohort Destination: secfcaf243-s2.2.1 Item: Title: External validation cohort Destination: secfcaf243-s2.2.2 Item: Title: MRI data Destination: secfcaf243-s2.3 Children: Item: Title: Original cohort Destination: secfcaf243-s2.3.1 Item: Title: External validation cohort Destination: secfcaf243-s2.3.2 Item: Title: Data analysis Destination: secfcaf243-s2.4 Children: Item: Title: Descriptive statistics Destination: secfcaf243-s2.4.1 Item: Title: DL model to predict time to PIRA Destination: secfcaf243-s2.4.2 Item: Title: Training procedure Destination: secfcaf243-s2.4.3 Item: Title: Model inference Destination: secfcaf243-s2.4.4 Item: Title: Evaluation of model performance Destination: secfcaf243-s2.4.5 Item: Title: Assessment of the added value of the DL-based estimations to conventional survival models of time to PIRA Destination: secfcaf243-s2.4.6 Item: Title: Assessing model interpretability through relevance maps: deep SHAP Destination: secfcaf243-s2.4.7 Item: Title: External validation analysis Destination: secfcaf243-s2.4.8 Item: Title: Implementation details Destination: secfcaf243-s2.4.9 Item: Title: Results Destination: secfcaf243-s3 Children: Item: Title: Descriptive statistics (original cohort) Destination: secfcaf243-s3.1 Item: Title: DL prediction of PIRA Destination: secfcaf243-s3.2 Children: Item: Title: Best threshold to predict PIRA Destination: secfcaf243-s3.2.1 Item: Title: Improvement of conventional survival models with DL-based outputs Destination: secfcaf243-s3.2.2 Item: Title: Model interpretability: relevance maps Destination: secfcaf243-s3.2.3 Item: Title: External validation analysis Destination: secfcaf243-s3.3 Children: Item: Title: Descriptive statistics (validation cohort) Destination: secfcaf243-s3.3.1 Item: Title: Prediction of PIRA using the best threshold estimated in the original cohort Destination: secfcaf243-s3.3.2 Item: Title: Discussion Destination: secfcaf243-s4 Children: Item: Title: Limitations of the study Destination: secfcaf243-s4.1 Item: Title: Conclusions Destination: secfcaf243-s5 Item: Title: Supplementary material Destination: secfcaf243-s6 Item: Title: Acknowledgements Destination: acknow Item: Title: Funding Destination: secfcaf243-s7 Item: Title: Competing Interests Destination: secfcaf243-s8 Item: Title: Data availability Destination: secfcaf243-s9 Item: Title: References Destination: reflist Info: Title: Deep learning to predict progression independent of relapse activity at a first demyelinating event Author: Llucia Coll Subject: DOI: 10.1093/braincomms/fcaf243; Brain Communications, 7, 4, 2025-07-04.; Abstract: Progression independent of relapse activity is the main cause of irreversible disability in multiple sclerosis and is strongly associated with older age at symptom onset. 䔀愀爀氀礀 愀渀搀 愀挀挀甀爀愀琀攀 瀀爀攀搀椀挀琀椀漀渀Ⰰ 愀琀 猀礀洀瀀琀漀洀 漀渀猀攀琀Ⰰ 漀昀 眀栀椀挀栀 瀀愀琀椀攀渀琀猀 愀爀攀 愀琀 栀椀最栀攀猀琀 爀椀猀欀 漀昀 瀀爀漀最爀攀猀猀椀漀渀 椀渀搀攀瀀攀渀搀攀渀琀 漀昀 爀攀氀愀瀀猀攀猀Ⰰis an unmet need. This study aimed to develop a deep learning survival model using only routine MRI acquired at the first demye氀椀渀愀琀椀渀最 愀琀琀愀挀欀 琀漀 瀀爀攀搀椀挀琀 琀栀攀 爀椀猀欀 漀昀 瀀爀漀最爀攀猀猀椀漀渀 椀渀搀攀瀀攀渀搀攀渀琀 漀昀 爀攀氀愀瀀猀攀猀Ⰰ 愀渀搀 愀猀猀攀猀猀 椀琀猀 愀戀椀氀椀琀礀 琀漀 椀洀瀀爀漀瘀攀 挀氀愀猀猀椀挀愀氀 愀最攀ⴀ愀搀樀sted predictions. We analysed a prospective cohort of patients under 50, clinically assessed within three months of symptom ons攀琀Ⰰ 眀椀琀栀 愀瘀愀椀氀愀戀氀攀 䴀刀䤀 吀㄀ⴀ 愀渀搀 吀㈀ⴀ䘀氀甀椀搀ⴀ䄀琀琀攀渀甀愀琀攀搀 䤀渀瘀攀爀猀椀漀渀 刀攀挀漀瘀攀爀礀 猀攀焀甀攀渀挀攀猀⸀ 䄀渀 椀渀搀攀瀀攀渀搀攀渀琀 攀愀爀氀礀 洀甀氀琀椀瀀氀攀 猀挀氀攀爀漀猀椀猀 挀漀栀rt (≤1 year from symptom onset) from the Multiple Sclerosis Partners Advancing Technology and Health Soluti Keywords: multiple sclerosis; progression independent of relapse activity; predictive model; brain MRI; deep learning Creator: Servigistics Arbortext Advanced Print Publisher 11.1.4546/W-x64 Producer: PDFlib+PDI 9.0.7p3 (C++/Win64) CreationDate: Thu Jul 03 19:23:28 CEST 2025 ModDate: Fri Jul 04 06:01:03 CEST 2025 ID: 0x0c0347b71d4eb82e5577058a866a3be6, 0xaf55ef24add8974188fa292708cfa851 Filters: FilterPipeline: FlateDecode FilterPipeline: DCTDecode Images: Image: NisoImageMetadata: FormatName: image/jpg CompressionScheme: JPEG ImageWidth: 1286 ImageHeight: 1307 BitsPerSample: 8 BitsPerSampleUnit: integer Image: NisoImageMetadata: FormatName: image/jpg CompressionScheme: JPEG ImageWidth: 1544 ImageHeight: 733 BitsPerSample: 8 BitsPerSampleUnit: integer Image: NisoImageMetadata: FormatName: image/jpg CompressionScheme: JPEG ImageWidth: 1286 ImageHeight: 664 BitsPerSample: 8 BitsPerSampleUnit: integer Image: NisoImageMetadata: FormatName: image/jpg CompressionScheme: JPEG ImageWidth: 1061 ImageHeight: 1459 BitsPerSample: 8 BitsPerSampleUnit: integer Image: NisoImageMetadata: FormatName: image/jpg CompressionScheme: JPEG ImageWidth: 1552 ImageHeight: 839 BitsPerSample: 8 BitsPerSampleUnit: integer Image: NisoImageMetadata: FormatName: image/jpg CompressionScheme: JPEG ImageWidth: 1166 ImageHeight: 1488 BitsPerSample: 8 BitsPerSampleUnit: integer Fonts: Type0: Font: BaseFont: HHZYMW+TimesNewRomanPSMT Encoding: Identity-H ToUnicode: true Type1: Font: BaseFont: TeX_Times_Math_Italic FirstChar: 1 LastChar: 255 FontDescriptor: FontName: TeX_Times_Math_Italic Flags: Symbolic FontBBox: -50, -180, 1000, 720 FontFile: true ToUnicode: true Font: BaseFont: MTZZOJ+GillSansMTStd-BoldItalic FontSubset: true FirstChar: 1 LastChar: 3 FontDescriptor: FontName: MTZZOJ+GillSansMTStd-BoldItalic Flags: Nonsymbolic, Italic, ForceBold FontBBox: -190, -237, 1074, 959 FontFile3: true EncodingDictionary: BaseEncoding: WinAnsiEncoding Differences: true ToUnicode: true Font: BaseFont: OJJTZY+GillSansMTStd-Medium FontSubset: true FirstChar: 2 LastChar: 75 FontDescriptor: FontName: OJJTZY+GillSansMTStd-Medium Flags: Nonsymbolic FontBBox: -162, -234, 1041, 931 FontFile3: true EncodingDictionary: BaseEncoding: WinAnsiEncoding Differences: true ToUnicode: true Font: BaseFont: BOMUMJ+SabonLTStd-Roman FontSubset: true FirstChar: 1 LastChar: 98 FontDescriptor: FontName: BOMUMJ+SabonLTStd-Roman Flags: Nonsymbolic FontBBox: -165, -228, 1000, 944 FontFile3: true EncodingDictionary: BaseEncoding: WinAnsiEncoding Differences: true ToUnicode: true Font: BaseFont: IGKKUJ+GillSansMTStd-MediumItalic FontSubset: true FirstChar: 1 LastChar: 25 FontDescriptor: FontName: IGKKUJ+GillSansMTStd-MediumItalic Flags: Nonsymbolic, Italic FontBBox: -201, -233, 1009, 931 FontFile3: true EncodingDictionary: BaseEncoding: WinAnsiEncoding Differences: true ToUnicode: true Font: BaseFont: BMDCXM+STIXGeneral-Regular FontSubset: true FirstChar: 1 LastChar: 10 FontDescriptor: FontName: BMDCXM+STIXGeneral-Regular Flags: Nonsymbolic FontBBox: -995, -455, 2000, 1055 FontFile3: true EncodingDictionary: BaseEncoding: WinAnsiEncoding Differences: true ToUnicode: true Font: BaseFont: TeX_Times_Roman FirstChar: 1 LastChar: 255 FontDescriptor: FontName: TeX_Times_Roman Flags: Symbolic FontBBox: -50, -180, 1000, 720 FontFile: true ToUnicode: true Font: BaseFont: QMITLO+SabonLTStd-Italic FontSubset: true FirstChar: 1 LastChar: 45 FontDescriptor: FontName: QMITLO+SabonLTStd-Italic Flags: Nonsymbolic, Italic FontBBox: -146, -228, 1059, 927 FontFile3: true EncodingDictionary: BaseEncoding: WinAnsiEncoding Differences: true ToUnicode: true Font: BaseFont: ZVTQLO+GillSansMTStd-Bold FontSubset: true FirstChar: 1 LastChar: 73 FontDescriptor: FontName: ZVTQLO+GillSansMTStd-Bold Flags: Nonsymbolic, ForceBold FontBBox: -177, -237, 1167, 957 FontFile3: true EncodingDictionary: BaseEncoding: WinAnsiEncoding Differences: true ToUnicode: true Font: BaseFont: KPGHFK+STIXGeneral-Bold FontSubset: true FirstChar: 1 LastChar: 3 FontDescriptor: FontName: KPGHFK+STIXGeneral-Bold Flags: Nonsymbolic, ForceBold FontBBox: -1030, -455, 2000, 1055 FontFile3: true EncodingDictionary: BaseEncoding: WinAnsiEncoding Differences: true ToUnicode: true CIDFontType2: Font: BaseFont: HHZYMW+TimesNewRomanPSMT CIDSystemInfo: Registry: Adobe Registry: Identity Supplement: 0 FontDescriptor: FontName: HHZYMW+TimesNewRomanPSMT Flags: Nonsymbolic FontBBox: -568, -307, 2046, 1040 FontFile2: true XMP: uuid:377a7ccf-8048-40aa-bf48-84846d7979cf uuid:926316F7-8310-70BB-B786-D177B4DFB4E7 True multiple sclerosis; progression independent of relapse activity; predictive model; brain MRI; deep learning PDFlib+PDI 9.0.7p3 (C++/Win64) application/pdf 10.1093/braincomms/fcaf243 en Oxford University Press Deep learning to predict progression independent of relapse activity at a first demyelinating event Llucia Coll Deborah Pareto Francisco Aparicio-Serrano Susana Otero-Romero Alvaro Cobo-Calvo Evy Reinders Manel Alberich María Jesús Arévalo Georgina Arrambide Cristina Auger Joaquín Castilló Manuel Comabella Ingrid Galán Luciana Midaglia Carlos Nos Frederik Novak Arnau Oliver Jordi Río Breogán Rodríguez-Acevedo Jaume Sastre-Garriga Ángela Vidal-Jordana Ana Zabalza Xavier Montalban Àlex Rovira Mar Tintoré Xavier Lladó Carmen Tur DOI: 10.1093/braincomms/fcaf243; Brain Communications, 7, 4, 2025-07-04.; Abstract: Progression independent of relapse activity is the main cause of irreversible disability in multiple sclerosis and is strongly associated with older age at symptom onset. Early and accurate prediction, at symptom onset, of which patients are at highest risk of progression independent of relapses, is an unmet need. This study aimed to develop a deep learning survival model using only routine MRI acquired at the first demyelinating attack to predict the risk of progression independent of relapses, and assess its ability to improve classical age-adjusted predictions. We analysed a prospective cohort of patients under 50, clinically assessed within three months of symptom onset, with available MRI (T1- and T2-Fluid-Attenuated Inversion Recovery sequences). An independent early multiple sclerosis cohort (≤1 year from symptom onset) from the Multiple Sclerosis Partners Advancing Technology and Health Soluti © The Author(s) 2025. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Guarantors of Brain. multiple sclerosis progression independent of relapse activity predictive model brain MRI deep learning Journal Brain Communications © The Author(s) 2025. 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