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Destination: titlink1 Children: Item: Title: Introduction Destination: flink1 Item: Title: Methods Destination: flink2 Children: Item: Title: Study design and participants Destination: slink1 Children: Item: Title: Barcelona first-attack cohort Destination: thirlink1 Item: Title: External validation cohort Destination: thirlink2 Item: Title: Study variables Destination: slink2 Children: Item: Title: Demographic and clinical data Destination: thirlink3 Item: Title: Brain and spinal cord MRI data Destination: thirlink4 Item: Title: Laboratory data Destination: thirlink5 Item: Title: Statistical methods Destination: slink3 Children: Item: Title: Creation of the predictive tool Destination: thirlink6 Item: Title: Definition of long-term clinical and MRI outcomes Destination: thirlink7 Item: Title: Prediction of long-term multidimensional outcomes Destination: thirlink8 Item: Title: Assessment of the association between DMT exposure and prediction of long-term outcomes Destination: thirlink9 Item: Title: External validation analysis Destination: thirlink10 Item: Title: Ethics approval Destination: slink4 Item: Title: Role of funding source Destination: slink5 Item: Title: Results Destination: flink3 Children: Item: Title: Descriptive statistics Destination: slink6 Item: Title: Creation of the predictive tool Destination: slink7 Item: Title: Prediction of clinical outcomes Destination: slink8 Item: Title: Prediction of MRI outcomes Destination: slink9 Item: Title: Association between DMT exposure and long-term outcomes Destination: slink10 Item: Title: External validation analysis Destination: slink11 Item: Title: Discussion Destination: flink4 Item: Title: ContributorsC.T.: conceptualisation, data curation, formal analysis, software, funding acquisition, investigation, methodol ... Destination: blink1 Item: Title: Data sharing statementData will be made available upon reasonable request to the corresponding and senior authors. Destination: blink2 Item: Title: Declaration of interests Destination: blink3 Item: Title: Acknowledgements Destination: blink4 Item: Title: Appendix A. 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FontDescriptor: FontName: MMIHHF+AdvOT3f9da5b7+20 Flags: Nonsymbolic FontBBox: -156, -177, 916, 739 FontFile3: true Encoding: WinAnsiEncoding Font: BaseFont: MMIHHG+AdvTT0d8bc80f.B FontSubset: true FirstChar: 37 LastChar: 169 FontDescriptor: FontName: MMIHHG+AdvTT0d8bc80f.B Flags: Serif, Nonsymbolic FontBBox: 0, -250, 947, 885 FontFile3: true Encoding: WinAnsiEncoding Font: BaseFont: MMIHMM+AdvOT2867105d.I+fb FontSubset: true FirstChar: 1 LastChar: 1 FontDescriptor: FontName: MMIHMM+AdvOT2867105d.I+fb Flags: Symbolic FontBBox: 19, -239, 708, 708 FontFile3: true EncodingDictionary: Differences: true ToUnicode: true Font: BaseFont: MMIHHL+AdvTTac2dc932 FontSubset: true FirstChar: 45 LastChar: 121 FontDescriptor: FontName: MMIHHL+AdvTTac2dc932 Flags: Serif, Nonsymbolic FontBBox: -166, -250, 1010, 833 FontFile3: true Encoding: WinAnsiEncoding XMP: application/pdf doi:10.1016/j.lanepe.2025.101302 The Barcelona baseline risk score to predict long-term prognosis after a first demyelinating event: a prospective observational study Carmen Tur Pere Carbonell-Mirabent Susana Otero-Romero Álvaro Cobo-Calvo María Jesús Arévalo Helena Ariño Georgina Arrambide Cristina Auger René Carvajal Joaquín Castilló Manuel Comabella Ingrid Galán Luciana Midaglia Carlos Nos Agustín Pappolla Deborah Pareto Jordi Río Breogán Rodríguez-Acevedo Estibaliz Saez de Gordoa Ángela Vidal-Jordana Ana Zabalza Jaume Sastre-Garriga Àlex Rovira Xavier Montalban Mar Tintoré Multiple sclerosis Predictive model Disease progression MRI Progression independent of relapse activity Relapse-associated worsening The Lancet Regional Health - Europe, 53 (2025) 101302. doi:10.1016/j.lanepe.2025.101302 The Authors journal The Lancet Regional Health - Europe © 2025 The Authors. 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