cc15a8c507bd50ca9dfe78e822eb0e8f sustainability-18-07402.pdf 55b5848afe8a6be0c8bbf405c7644ac7d838c092 sustainability-18-07402.pdf c0464c603425b4fcbeb1b90090802820c38f7fd07ad9ae2d6c294079c2998413 sustainability-18-07402.pdf Title: Beyond Green Growth: Evaluating the Biophysical Feasibility of Rail-Centric Transport Systems in the European Union Subject: Achieving the European Union's (EU-27) 2050 climate neutrality goal requires a drastic reduction in transport emissions. This study utilizes the pymedeas2 integrated assessment model to evaluate trade-offs between technology-led and structure-led transitions under both continuous growth and steady-state economic paradigms. Our results reveal that relying primarily on private vehicle electrification falls short of emission targets. The baseline REF-G scenario—following current institutional roadmaps centred on rapid technological substitution and sustained economic growth—maintains a high final energy demand and requires a cumulative extraction of 2.35 Mt of lithium by 2050, claiming nearly 6.4% of current global proven reserves solely for European mobility. Conversely, combining a modal shift toward electrified rail with macroeconomic stabilization (RAIL-SSE) reduces transport final energy demand by 68% relative to the projected 2024 peak and decreases lithium requirements by 57%. This sufficiency-driven pathway achieves the deepest absolute climate mitigation, dropping residual transport emissions to approximately 90 MtCO2/year. Furthermore, despite the front-loaded costs of rail expansion, RAIL-SSE emerges as the least capital-intensive pathway, requiring a total investment of USD 19.83 trillion—a systemic saving of USD 7.27 trillion relative to the REF-G baseline. We conclude that reaching absolute sustainability in the EU transport sector necessitates a policy shift away from resource-intensive green growth strategies toward demand sufficiency and durable public infrastructure. Keywords: transport transition; biophysical limits constraints; transport modal shift; stationary economy Author: Creator: LaTeX with hyperref Producer: pdfTeX-1.40.25; modified using OpenPDF 1.4.2 CreationDate: Mon Jul 20 09:40:00 2026 CEST ModDate: Mon Jul 20 10:11:26 2026 CEST Custom Metadata: yes Metadata Stream: no Tagged: no UserProperties: no Suspects: no Form: none JavaScript: no Pages: 29 Encrypted: no Page size: 595.276 x 841.89 pts (A4) Page rot: 0 File size: 4732988 bytes Optimized: no PDF version: 1.7 name type encoding emb sub uni object ID ------------------------------------ ----------------- ---------------- --- --- --- --------- COKEFC+URWPalladioL-Bold Type 1 Custom yes yes yes 204 0 EOACLI+URWPalladioL-Roma Type 1 Custom yes yes yes 205 0 QMGQNC+URWPalladioL-Ital Type 1 Custom yes yes yes 206 0 KCTUYU+CMSY10 Type 1 Builtin yes yes yes 315 0 NIWPUW+CMEX10 Type 1 Builtin yes yes yes 316 0 OQOETX+PazoMath-Italic Type 1 Builtin yes yes yes 317 0 GIGFZE+CMR10 Type 1 Builtin yes yes yes 318 0 SYFPBV+CMMI10 Type 1 Builtin yes yes yes 350 0 MKNXBF+SFTT1000 Type 1 Custom yes yes yes 506 0 KDZWRK+CMBSY10 Type 1 Builtin yes yes yes 521 0 BWLCEU+PazoMath-BoldItalic Type 1 Builtin yes yes yes 522 0 HVSBKL+PazoMath Type 1 Builtin yes yes yes 576 0 Jhove (Rel. 1.28.0, 2023-05-18) Date: 2026-09-30 03:56:55 CEST RepresentationInformation: sustainability-18-07402.pdf ReportingModule: PDF-hul, Rel. 1.12.4 (2023-03-16) LastModified: 2026-09-29 13:35:19 CEST Size: 4732988 Format: PDF Version: 1.7 Status: Well-Formed and valid SignatureMatches: PDF-hul MIMEtype: application/pdf PDFMetadata: Objects: 776 FreeObjects: 1 IncrementalUpdates: 0 DocumentCatalog: ViewerPreferences: HideToolbar: false HideMenubar: false HideWindowUI: false FitWindow: true CenterWindow: false DisplayDocTitle: false NonFullScreenPageMode: UseNone Direction: L2R ViewArea: CropBox ViewClip: CropBox PrintArea: CropBox PageClip: CropBox PageLayout: SinglePage PageMode: UseNone Outlines: Item: Title: Introduction Item: Title: Materials and Methods Children: Item: Title: Scenarios Definition Children: Item: Title: Reference Scenario: Institutional Green Growth (CETO 2025) Item: Title: Alternative Pathway: Rail Scenario Item: Title: Macroeconomic Variants: Growth vs. Steady-State Economy Item: Title: Modeling Framework Children: Item: Title: Transport Data Preprocessing and Demand Projection Item: Title: Material Demand and Economic Evaluation Item: Title: Data Integration and Calibration Children: Item: Title: Modal and Fuel Classification Item: Title: Model Calibration and Performance Parameters Item: Title: Results Children: Item: Title: Passenger and Freight Metabolic Transition Item: Title: Transport Final Energy Demand Item: Title: Decarbonization Trajectories and Emissions Item: Title: Cumulative Material Requirements: The Lithium Wall Item: Title: Economic Valuation: Capital Investment and Infrastructure Deployment Item: Title: Discussion Children: Item: Title: The Rail Transition as a Limit Case: Feasibility, Materiality, and Implementation Barriers Item: Title: Macroeconomic Implications and Capital Reallocation Item: Title: Conclusions Item: Title: Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) Children: Item: Title: Methodology: The Morris Method Item: Title: Input Parameters and Configuration Item: Title: Results and Interpretation Item: Title: pymedeas2 Improvements Children: Item: Title: Transport Module Architecture and Causal Logic Item: Title: Economic Framework Integration Item: Title: Econometric Estimation and Statistical Analysis Children: Item: Title: Econometric Specification Item: Title: Estimation Results and Diagnostics Item: Title: Material and Economic Formulations Children: Item: Title: Vehicle Stock and Material Demand Item: Title: Economic Valuation of the Transition Item: Title: Additional Data Tables Item: Title: References Info: Title: Beyond Green Growth: Evaluating the Biophysical Feasibility of Rail-Centric Transport Systems in the European Union Author: Subject: Achieving the European Union's (EU-27) 2050 climate neutrality goal requires a drastic reduction in transport emissions. This study utilizes the pymedeas2 integrated assessment model to evaluate trade-offs between technology-led and structure-led transitions under both continuous growth and steady-state economic paradigms. Our results reveal that relying primarily on private vehicle electrification falls short of emission targets. The baseline REF-G scenario—following current institutional roadmaps centred on rapid technological substitution and sustained economic growth—maintains a high final energy demand and requires a cumulative extraction of 2.35 Mt of lithium by 2050, claiming nearly 6.4% of current global proven reserves solely for European mobility. Conversely, combining a modal shift toward electrified rail with macroeconomic stabilization (RAIL-SSE) reduces transport final energy demand by 68% relative to the projected 2024 peak and decreases lithium requirements by 57%. This sufficiency-driven pathway achieves the deepest absolute climate mitigation, dropping residual transport emissions to approximately 90 MtCO2/year. Furthermore, despite the front-loaded costs of rail expansion, RAIL-SSE emerges as the least capital-intensive pathway, requiring a total investment of USD 19.83 trillion—a systemic saving of USD 7.27 trillion relative to the REF-G baseline. We conclude that reaching absolute sustainability in the EU transport sector necessitates a policy shift away from resource-intensive green growth strategies toward demand sufficiency and durable public infrastructure. 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