Web of Science: 0 cites, Scopus: 0 cites, Google Scholar: cites,
Evolution of opinions in the growth-vs-environment debate : extended replicator dynamics
Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M. van den (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)
Savin, Ivan (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)
Drews, Stefan (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)

Data: 2019
Resum: The evolution of opinions in the long-standing debate on growth-versus-environment may affect support for important sustainability policies, in areas such as biodiversity loss, climate change, deforestation and freshwater scarcity. In order to understand this evolution, we develop a model describing the dynamics of four distinct opinions as identified in recent surveys, namely growth-at-all-cost, green growth, agrowth and degrowth. The model is based on modifying standard replicator dynamics to match a multi-group structure. Individuals are influenced by local or global interactions with others, based on adjacent opinion groups and exposure to information about environmental change. Psychological resistance to opinion change is also accounted for. The model is calibrated with recent survey data. Numerical analysis shows which opinions survive under particular conditions. We find, among others, that under local interactions, ultimate outcomes are characterized by lack of consensus, i. e. survival of multiple opinions. In addition, equal impacts of environmental change on opinions do not always translate in joint survival of associated opinions. Under worsening environmental conditions while continuing economic growth, opinions shift from green growth to agrowth and degrowth. Fostering global interactions among individuals, causing them to be influenced by a broad spectrum of opinions, makes consensus more likely. We also consider model dynamics if feedback from opinions to policy to environmental change and back is included. This confirms robustness of the results. It should be noted that the model is not meant to predict but to explore the consequences of combinations of assumptions about social networks, psychological mechanisms, environmental dynamics, and connections between opinion distribution and environmental policy. The study represents the first analysis of opinion dynamics in the growth-vs-environment debate and suggests a number of routes for further investigation.
Nota: Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu MdM-2015-0552
Nota: Digital object identifier for the 'European Research Council' (http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000781) Digital object identifier for 'Horizon 2020' (http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100007601).
Nota: Número d'acord de subvenció EC/H2020/741087
Drets: Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial i la comunicació pública de l'obra, sempre que no sigui amb finalitats comercials, i sempre que es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original. No es permet la creació d'obres derivades. Creative Commons
Llengua: Anglès.
Document: article ; recerca ; acceptedVersion
Matèria: Opinion dynamics ; Economic growth ; Environment ; Sustainability ; Climate change
Publicat a: Futures, Vol. 109 (May 2019) , p. 84-100, ISSN 0016-3287

DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2019.02.024


Disponible a partir de: 2021-05-30
Postprint

El registre apareix a les col·leccions:
Documents de recerca > Documents dels grups de recerca de la UAB > Centres i grups de recerca (producció científica) > Ciències > Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA)
Documents de recerca > Documents dels grups de recerca de la UAB > Centres i grups de recerca (producció científica) > Ciències > Environmental and Climate Economics (ECE)
Articles > Articles de recerca
Articles > Articles publicats

 Registre creat el 2019-05-03, darrera modificació el 2019-07-01



   Favorit i Compartir