A simple method to estimate the number of doses to include in a bank of vaccines. The case of Lumpy Skin Disease in France
Casal i Fàbrega, Jordi (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Sanitat i d'Anatomia Animals)
Saegerman, C. (University of Liège. Fundamental and Applied Research for Animal and Health (FARAH) Center)
Bertagnoli, Stéphane (Université de Toulouse. INRA. ENVT)
Meyer, G. (Université de Toulouse. INRA. ENVT)
Ganière, Jean-Pierre (ONIRIS)
Caufour, Philippe (UMR Cirad-Inra ASTRE)
De Clercq, Kris (Unit Vesicular and Exotic Diseases)
Jacquiet, Philippe (Université de Toulouse. INRA. ENVT)
Hautefeuille, Claire (Agence nationale de sécurité sanitaire de l'alimentation, de l'environnement et du travail)
Etore, Florence (Agence nationale de sécurité sanitaire de l'alimentation, de l'environnement et du travail)
Napp Avelli, Sebastián (Institut de Recerca i Tecnologia Agroalimentàries. Centre de Recerca en Sanitat Animal)

Fecha:	2019
Resumen:	A simple method to estimate the size of the vaccine bank needed to control an epidemic of an exotic infectious disease in case of introduction into a country is presented. The method was applied to the case of a Lumpy Skin disease (LSD) epidemic in France. The size of the stock of vaccines needed was calculated based on a series of simple equations that use some trigonometric functions and take into account the spread of the disease, the time required to obtain good vaccination coverage and the cattle density in the affected region. Assuming a 7-weeks period to vaccinate all the animals and a spread of the disease of 7. 3 km/week, the vaccination of 740 716 cattle would be enough to control an epidemic of LSD in France in 90% of the simulations (608 196 cattle would cover 75% of the simulations). The results of this simple method were then validated using a dynamic simulation model, which served as reference for the calculation of the vaccine stock required. The differences between both models in different scenarios, related with the time needed to vaccinate the animals, ranged from 7% to 10. 5% more vaccines using the simple method to cover 90% of the simulations, and from 9. 0% to 13. 8% for 75% of the simulations. The model is easy to use and may be adapted for the control of different diseases in different countries, just by using some simple formulas and few input data.
Derechos:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Lengua:	Anglès
Documento:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Materia:	Animals ; Cattle ; Computer Simulation ; Epidemics ; France ; Lumpy Skin Disease ; Lumpy skin disease virus ; Vaccination ; Vaccination Coverage ; Viral Vaccines
Publicado en:	PloS one, Vol. 14 Núm. 1 (january 2019) , p. e0210317, ISSN 1932-6203

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0210317
PMID: 30682041

10 p, 1.0 MB

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Documentos de investigación > Documentos de los grupos de investigación de la UAB > Centros y grupos de investigación (producción científica) > Ciencias de la salud y biociencias > Centre de Recerca en Sanitat Animal (CReSA-IRTA)
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