Downscaling down under : towards degrowth in integrated assessment models
Kikstra, Jarmo S. (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Àustria))
Li, Mengyu (University of Sydney)
Brockway, Paul (University of Leeds)
Hickel, Jason 1982- (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)
Keysser, Lorenz (University of Lausanne)
Malik, Arunima (University of Sydney)
Rogelj, Joeri (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Àustria))
van Ruijven, Bas (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Àustria))
Lenzen, Manfred (University of Sydney)
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament d'Antropologia Social i Cultural

Data:	2024
Resum:	IPCC reports, to date, have not featured ambitious mitigation scenarios with degrowth in high-income regions. Here, using MESSAGEix-Australia, we create 51 emissions scenarios for Australia with near-term GDP growth going from +3%/year to rapid reductions (-5%/year) to explore how a traditional integrated assessment model (IAM) represents degrowth from an economic starting point, not just energy demand reduction. We find that stagnating GDP per capita reduces the mid-century need for upscaling solar and wind energy by about 40% compared to the SSP2 growth baseline, and limits future material needs for renewables. Still, solar and wind energy in 2030 is more than quadruple that of 2020. Faster reductions in energy demand may entail higher socio-cultural feasibility concerns, depending on the policies involved. Strong reductions in inequality reduce the risk of lowered access to decent living services. We discuss research needs and possible IAM extensions to improve post-growth and degrowth scenario modelling.
Ajuts:	European Commission 776608
Nota:	Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-M
Drets:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Llengua:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Matèria:	Degrowth ; Integrated assessment models ; Post-growth ; SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy ; SDG 8 - Decent Work and Economic Growth ; SDG 13 - Climate Action ; SDG 10 - Reduced Inequalities
Publicat a:	Economic Systems Research, Vol. 36, Núm. 4 (April 2024) , p. 576-606, ISSN 1469-5758

DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2023.2301443

32 p, 6.9 MB

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