Opposite trends in the consumption of manufactured and roll-your-own cigarettes in Spain (1991-2020)
Fu, Marcela (Institut d'Investigació Biomèdica de Bellvitge)
Martínez-Sánchez, José M. (Institut d'Investigació Biomèdica de Bellvitge)
Clèries, Ramon (Institut d'Investigació Biomèdica de Bellvitge)
Villalbí, Joan Ramón (Institut d'Investigació Biomèdica Sant Pau)
Daynard, Richard A. (Northeastern University (Massachusetts, Estats Units))
Connolly, Gregory N. (Harvard School of Public Health)
Fernández, Esteve (Universitat de Barcelona. Departament de Ciènces Clíniques)
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona

Data:	2014
Resum:	Objective: The aim of this study is to describe trends in the consumption of manufactured and roll-your-own cigarettes between 1991 and 2012 in Spain, and to project these trends up to 2020. Methods: We estimated daily consumption per capita during 1991-2012 using data on sales of manufactured cigarettes (20-packs) and rolling tobacco (kg) from the Tobacco Market Commission, and using data of the Spanish adult population from the National Statistics Institute. We considered different weights (0. 5, 0. 8 and 1 g) to compute the number of rolled cigarettes per capita. We computed the annual per cent of change and assessed possible changes in trends using joinpoint regression, and projected the consumption up to 2020 using Bayesian methods. Results: Daily consumption per capita of manufactured cigarettes decreased on average by 3. 0% per year in 1991-2012, from 7. 6 to 3. 8 units, with three trend changes. However, daily consumption per capita of roll-your-own cigarettes increased on average by 14. 1% per year, from 0. 07 to 0. 92 units of 0. 5 g, with unchanged trends. Together, daily consumption per capita decreased between 2. 9% and 2. 5%, depending on the weight of the roll-your-own cigarettes. Projections up to 2020 indicate a decrease of manufactured cigarettes (1. 75 units per capita) but an increase of roll-your-own cigarettes (1. 25 units per capita). Conclusions: While the consumption per capita of manufactured cigarettes has decreased in the past years in Spain, the consumption of roll-your-own cigarettes has increased at an annual rate around 14% over the past years. Whereas a net decrease in cigarette consumption is expected in the future, use of roll-your-own cigarettes will continue to increase.
Ajuts:	Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad RD12/0036/0053 Generalitat de Catalunya 2009SGR192
Drets:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, sempre que no sigui amb finalitats comercials, i sempre que es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Llengua:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Matèria:	Bayes Theorem ; Commerce ; Humans ; Smoking ; Spain ; Tobacco ; Tobacco Products
Publicat a:	BMJ open, Vol. 4 Núm. 12 (2014) , p. e006552, ISSN 2044-6055

DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2014-006552
PMID: 25500162

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