Fertility decline to low and very low levels in Latin America
Pardo, Ignacio (Universidad de la República (Uruguai))
Sacco, Nicolás
Acosta, Enrique (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)
Castro Torres, Andrés F (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)
Centre d'Estudis Demogràfics

Data:	2025
Resum:	The literature on fertility decline in Latin America from 2000 to 2010 suggests that reductions in higher-order births and postponement of first births moved fertility toward replacement levels. However, the factors behind the continued fertility decline to low and very low levels in 2011-2020 remain less explored. This paper analyzes recent fertility trends in Latin America, identifying the key drivers and mechanisms behind the decline and discussing their potential impact on future trends. To this end, we compute period-, age-, and order-specific rates and assess their relative contributions to decreases in total period fertility rates across six Latin American countries, which together represent nearly three-quarters of the region, as well as the Latinx population in the United States. Our findings show that most of the decline is concentrated in the youngest ages (49-85%), suggesting that first-birth postponement is likely the main underlying mechanism. If so, a slight fertility recovery is expected, although the consolidation of very low or even lowest-low levels cannot be fully discarded.
Drets:	Aquest material està protegit per drets d'autor i/o drets afins. Podeu utilitzar aquest material en funció del que permet la legislació de drets d'autor i drets afins d'aplicació al vostre cas. Per a d'altres usos heu d'obtenir permís del(s) titular(s) de drets.
Llengua:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió acceptada per publicar
Matèria:	Fertility ; Low fertility ; Latin America ; Fertility decline
Publicat a:	Population Research and Policy Review, Vol. 44 (January 2025) , ISSN 1573-7829

DOI: 10.1007/s11113-024-09934-y

Disponible a partir de: 2026-01-30 Postprint

El registre apareix a les col·leccions:
Documents de recerca > Documents dels grups de recerca de la UAB > Centres i grups de recerca (producció científica) > Ciències socials i jurídiques > Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics (CED-CERCA)
Articles > Articles de recerca
Articles > Articles publicats