A systemic overreaction to years versus decades of warming in a subarctic grassland ecosystem
Walker, Tom W. N. (Université de Lausanne. Department of Ecology & Evolution)
Janssens, Ivan (University of Antwerp. Department of Biology)
Weedon, J. T. (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. Department of Ecological Science)
Sigurdsson, Bjarni D. (Agricultural University of Iceland)
Richter, Andreas (Universität Wien. Department of Microbiology and Ecosystem Science)
Peñuelas, Josep (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Leblans, Niki I. W. (Universiteit Antwerpen. Departement Biologie)
Bahn, Michael (University of Innsbruck. Institute of Ecology)
Bartrons Vilamala, Mireia (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Jonge, Cindy De (Universiteit Antwerpen. Departement Biologie)
Fuchslueger, Lucia (University of Antwerpen. Department of Biology)
Gargallo-Garriga, Albert (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Gunnarsdóttir, Gunnhildur E. (Agricultural University of Iceland)
Marañón Jiménez, Sara (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Oddsdóttir, Edda S. (Icelandic Forest Research)
Ostonen, Ivika (Tartu Ülikool)
Poeplau, Christopher (Institut für Agrarklimaschutz)
Prommer, Judith (University of Vienna)
Radujkovic, Dajana (University of Antwerp. Department of Biology)
Sardans i Galobart, Jordi (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Sigurðsson, Páll (Agricultural University of Iceland)
Soong, Jennifer L. (University of Antwerp. Department of Biology)
Vicca, Sara (University of Antwerp. Biology Department)
Wallander, Håkan (Lunds universitet. Biologiska institutionen)
Ilieva-Makulec, Krassimira (Uniwersytet Warszawski. Instytut Ekologii i Bioetyki)
Verbruggen, Erik (Universiteit Antwerpen. Research Centre of Excellence Plants and Ecosystems)

Fecha:	2020
Resumen:	Temperature governs most biotic processes, yet we know little about how warming affects whole ecosystems. Here we examined the responses of 128 components of a subarctic grassland to either 5-8 or >50 years of soil warming. Warming of >50 years drove the ecosystem to a new steady state possessing a distinct biotic composition and reduced species richness, biomass and soil organic matter. However, the warmed state was preceded by an overreaction to warming, which was related to organism physiology and was evident after 5-8 years. Ignoring this overreaction yielded errors of >100% for 83 variables when predicting their responses to a realistic warming scenario of 1 °C over 50 years, although some, including soil carbon content, remained stable after 5-8 years. This study challenges long-term ecosystem predictions made from short-term observations, and provides a framework for characterization of ecosystem responses to sustained climate change.
Ayudas:	European Commission 610028 European Commission 291780 European Commission 676108 Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad CGL2016-79835-P Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca 2017/SGR-1005
Derechos:	Tots els drets reservats.
Lengua:	Anglès
Documento:	Article ; recerca ; Versió acceptada per publicar
Materia:	Climate-change ecology ; Ecology ; Ecosystem ecology
Publicado en:	Nature ecology & evolution, Vol. 4, Issue 1 (January 2020) , p. 101-108, ISSN 2397-334X

DOI: 10.1038/s41559-019-1055-3
PMID: 31819236

Postprint 18 p, 675.8 KB

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