Social copying drives a tipping point for nonlinear population collapse
Oro, Daniel (Centre d'Estudis Avançats de Blanes. Laboratori d'Ecologia Teòrica i Computacional - CSIC)
Alsedà i Soler, Lluís (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Matemàtiques)
Hastings, Alan (University of California. Department of Environmental Science and Policy)
Genovart, Meritxell (Centre d'Estudis Avançats de Blanes. Laboratori d'Ecologia Teòrica i Computacional - CSIC)
Sardanyés, Josep (Centre de Recerca Matemàtica)

Fecha:	2023
Resumen:	Sudden changes in populations are ubiquitous in ecological systems, especially under perturbations. The agents of global change may increase the frequency and severity of anthropogenic perturbations, but complex populations' responses hamper our understanding of their dynamics and resilience. Furthermore, the long-term environmental and demographic data required to study those sudden changes are rare. Fitting dynamical models with an artificial intelligence algorithm to population fluctuations over 40 y in a social bird reveals that feedback in dispersal after a cumulative perturbation drives a population collapse. The collapse is well described by a nonlinear function mimicking social copying, whereby dispersal made by a few individuals induces others to leave the patch in a behavioral cascade for decision-making to disperse. Once a threshold for deterioration of the quality of the patch is crossed, there is a tipping point for a social response of runaway dispersal corresponding to social copying feedback. Finally, dispersal decreases at low population densities, which is likely due to the unwillingness of the more philopatric individuals to disperse. In providing the evidence of copying for the emergence of feedback in dispersal in a social organism, our results suggest a broader impact of self-organized collective dispersal in complex population dynamics. This has implications for the theoretical study of population and metapopulation nonlinear dynamics, including population extinction, and managing of endangered and harvested populations of social animals subjected to behavioral feedback loops.
Ayudas:	Agencia Estatal de Investigación CGL2017-85210-P Agencia Estatal de Investigación PID2021-122893NB-C21 Agencia Estatal de Investigación CEX2020-001084-M Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación RYC-2017-22243 Agencia Estatal de Investigación PID2020-118281GB-C31
Nota:	Altres ajuts: CERCA Programme/Generalitat de Catalunya
Derechos:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, i la comunicació pública de l'obra, sempre que no sigui amb finalitats comercials, i sempre que es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original. No es permet la creació d'obres derivades.
Lengua:	Anglès
Documento:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Materia:	Tipping points ; Runaway dispersal ; Nonlinear population dynamics ; Social behavior ; Feedback
Publicado en:	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 120, Issue 11 (March 2023) , art. e2214055120, ISSN 1091-6490

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2214055120
PMID: 36877850

8 p, 1.6 MB

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