Modeling Global Trade in Phosphate Rock within a Partial Equilibrium Framework
Khabarov, Nikolay (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Àustria). Ecosystem Services and Management)
Obersteiner, Michael (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Àustria). Ecosystem Services and Management)

Fecha:	2018
Resumen:	Against the background of combined population and consumption growth, the global sustainable development agenda foresees limits to the expansion of agricultural land. The application of fertilizer is necessary to replenish soil nutrients and keep crop yields high. Phosphate rock (PR) is the main raw material for the production of commercial phosphorus fertilizers. The international PR market is highly concentrated in terms of reserves and supply: a few countries export the major share of all PR traded globally. As many countries are highly dependent on phosphorus import, the modeling of international PR trade and thus exploration of what-if scenarios is of great interest. For modeling purposes, we employ the partial equilibrium framework. The model is driven by a subset of the United Nations (UN) Comtrade database at a yearly time step spanning the period 1997-2016. The only inputs to the model are slope coefficients of demand-supply curves. The transportation costs are internalized by creating a costs ensemble on the basis of historical data. While reasonably sensitive to its inputs, the model fits very well to reported global annual traded quantities and prices and considerably improves per-trade-partner quantity estimates as compared to simple period-averaging approaches. This is the first application of a partial equilibrium approach to global PR market modeling, including validation.
Ayudas:	European Commission 610028
Derechos:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Lengua:	Anglès
Documento:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Materia:	Phosphate rock ; International trade ; Partial equilibrium
Publicado en:	Sustainability, Vol. 10, Núm. 5 (May 2018) , art. 1550, ISSN 2071-1050

DOI: 10.3390/su10051550

15 p, 403.1 KB

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