Debt stocks meet gross financing needs : a flow perspective into sustainability
Gabriele, Carmine
Erce, Aitor
Athanasopoulou, Mariaelena
Rojas, Juan

Date: 2017
Abstract: It is well known that no single metric can provide reliable cross-country risk assessments of debt sustainability. While approaches to understanding sustainability have traditionally relied heavily on stock metrics, a consensus is emerging that debt sustainability should be linked to both stock and flow features of underlying public debt. This paper informs this debate by analysing the ability of gross financing needs, the preferred flow metric in current debt sustainability analyses by official institutions, to provide additional information to that provided by standard stock metrics of a sovereign’s likelihood of distress. Our main contribution is to document a significant negative effect from changes in gross financing needs when debt stocks are high. These results support the intuition that countries can sustain very large debt stocks if these do not generate unmanageable flow needs. Additionally, we show that sovereign roll-over needs are a critical element driving this effect. Given the role of official lending in taming the dynamics of this component, our findings also inform the literature on the role of official lending in crises resolution.
Abstract: The ADEMU Working Paper Series is being supported by the European Commission Horizon 2020 European Union funding for Research & Innovation, grant agreement No 649396.
Note: Número d'acord de subvenció EC/H2020/649396
Rights: Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original. Creative Commons
Language: Anglès.
Series: Barcelona Graduate School of Economics: ADEMU working paper series
Series: ADEMU Working Paper Series ; 67
Document: workingPaper
Subject: Sovereign sustainability ; Debt stocks ; Financing needs ; Maturity

Adreça alternativa: https://hdl.handle.net/10230/32773


26 p, 1.0 MB

The record appears in these collections:
Research literature > Working papers

 Record created 2018-10-23, last modified 2018-11-10



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