Feasible future global scenarios for human life evaluations
Barrington-Leigh, Christopher (McGill University, Montreal. School of Environment)
Galbraith, Eric (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)

Date:	2019
Abstract:	Subjective well-being surveys show large and consistent variation among countries, much of which can be predicted from a small number of social and economic proxy variables. But the degree to which these life evaluations might feasibly change over coming decades, at the global scale, has not previously been estimated. Here, we use observed historical trends in the proxy variables to constrain feasible future projections of self-reported life evaluations to the year 2050. We find that projected effects of macroeconomic variables tend to lead to modest improvements of global average life evaluations. In contrast, scenarios based on non-material variables project future global average life evaluations covering a much wider range, lying anywhere from the top 15% to the bottom 25% of present-day countries. These results highlight the critical role of non-material factors such as social supports, freedoms, and fairness in determining the future of human well-being.
Grants:	European Commission 682602 Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad MDM-2015-0552
Note:	Digital object identifier for the 'European Research Council' (http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000781) Digital object identifier for 'Horizon 2020' (http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100007601).
Note:	Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu MdM-2015-0552
Rights:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Subject:	Economics ; Psychology and behaviour ; Socioeconomic scenarios
Published in:	Nature communications, Vol. 10 (2019) , art. 161, ISSN 2041-1723

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-08002-2
PMID: 30635565

33 p, 6.0 MB

The record appears in these collections:
Research literature > UAB research groups literature > Research Centres and Groups (research output) > Experimental sciences > Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA) > Integrated Earth System Dynamics Laboratory (IESD)
Articles > Research articles
Articles > Published articles