MACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersion in Europe
Sofiev, Mikhail (Finnish Meteorological Institute)
Berger, Uwe (Medizinischen Universität Wien)
Prank, Marje (Finnish Meteorological Institute)
Vira, Julius (Finnish Meteorological Institute)
Arteta, Joaquim (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (France))
Belmonte, Jordina (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)
Bergmann, Karl-Christian (Stiftung Deutscher Polleninformationsdienst)
Chéroux, Françoise (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (France))
Elbern, Hendrik (Universität zu Köln. Rheinischen Institut für Umweltforschung)
Friese, Elmar (Universität zu Köln. Rheinischen Institut für Umweltforschung)
Galan Soldevilla, Carmen (Universidad de Córdoba)
Gehrig, Regula (Bundesamt für Meteorologie und Klimatologie MeteoSchweiz)
Khvorostyanov, Dmitry (Université Pierre et Marie Curie (Paris). Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique)
Kranenburg, Richard (TNO (Utrecht, the Netherlands))
Kumar, Ujjwal (Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut)
Marécal, Virginie (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (France))
Meleux, Frederik (Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques)
Menut, Laurent (Université Pierre et Marie Curie (Paris). Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique)
Pessi, Anna Mari (Turun yliopisto)
Robertson, Lennart (Sveriges meteorologiska och hydrologiska institut)
Ritenberga, Olga (Latvijas Universitāte)
Rodinkova, Victoria (VNMU, Vinnitsa National Medical University)
Saarto, Annika (Turun yliopisto)
Segers, Arjo (TNO (Utrecht, the Netherlands))
Severova, Elena (Moscow State University)
Sauliene, Ingrida (Šiaulių universitetas)
Siljamo, Pilvi (Finnish Meteorological Institute)
Steensen, Birthe Marie (Meteorologisk institutt)
Teinemaa, Erik (Eesti Keskkonnauuringute Keskus)
Thibaudon, Michel (Réseau National de Surveillance Aérobiologique (France))
Peuch, Vincent-Henri (European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecast)

Date:	2015
Abstract:	This paper presents the first ensemble modelling experiment in relation to birch pollen in Europe. The seven-model European ensemble of MACC-ENS, tested in trial simulations over the flowering season of 2010, was run through the flowering season of 2013. The simulations have been compared with observations in 11 countries, all members of the European Aeroallergen Network, for both individual models and the ensemble mean and median. It is shown that the models successfully reproduced the timing of the very late season of 2013, generally within a couple of days from the observed start of the season. The end of the season was generally predicted later than observed, by 5 days or more, which is a known feature of the source term used in the study. Absolute pollen concentrations during the season were somewhat underestimated in the southern part of the birch habitat. In the northern part of Europe, a record-low pollen season was strongly overestimated by all models. The median of the multi-model ensemble demonstrated robust performance, successfully eliminating the impact of outliers, which was particularly useful since for most models this was the first experience of pollen forecasting.
Grants:	European Commission 283576
Rights:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Published in:	Atmospheric chemistry and physics, Vol. 15 (Jul. 2015) , p. 8115-8130, ISSN 1680-7324

Adreça alternativa: https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/15/8115/2015/
DOI: 10.5194/acp-15-8115-2015

16 p, 8.8 MB

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