Climate and landscape changes as driving forces for future range shift in southern populations of the European badger
Rosalino, Luis M. (Universidade de Lisboa. Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes)
Guedes, Diana (Universidade de Aveiro. Departamento de Biologia & CESAM)
Cabecinha, Diogo (Universidade de Lisboa. Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes)
Serronha, Ana (Universidade do Porto. Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos)
Grilo, Clara (Universidade de Aveiro. Departamento de Biologia & CESAM.)
Santos-Reis, Margarida (Universidade de Lisboa. Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes)
Monterroso, Pedro (Universidade do Porto. Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos)
Carvalho, João (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Servei d'Ecopatologia de Fauna Salvatge)
Fonseca, Carlos (Universidade de Aveiro. Departamento de Biologia & CESAM)
Pardavila, Xosé (Universidade de Santiago de Compostela. Área de Ecoloxía. Departamento de Bioloxía Funcional)
Virgós, Emilio (Universidad Rey Juan Carlos. Departamento de Biologia, Geología, Física y Química Inorgánica)
Hipólito, Dário (Universidade de Aveiro. Departamento de Biologia & CESAM)

Date:	2019
Abstract:	Human-Induced Rapid Environmental Change (HIREC), particularly climate change and habitat conversion, affects species distributions worldwide. Here, we aimed to (i) assess the factors that determine range patterns of European badger (Meles meles) at the southwestern edge of their distribution and (ii) forecast the possible impacts of future climate and landcover changes on those patterns. We surveyed 272 cells of 5 × 5 km, to assess badger presence and confirmed its occurrence in 95 cells (35%). Our models estimate that badger's presence is promoted by the occurrence of herbaceous fields and shrublands (5%-10%), and low proportions of Eucalyptus plantations (<~15%). Regions with >50% of podzols and eruptive rocks, higher sheep/goat density (>4 ind/km ), an absence of cattle, intermediate precipitation regimes (800-1000 mm/year) and mild mean temperatures (15-16 °C) are also more likely to host badgers. We predict a decrease in favourability of southern areas for hosting badgers under forecasted climate and landcover change scenarios, which may lead to a northwards retraction of the species southern distribution limit, but the overall landscape favourability is predicted to slightly increase. The forecasted retraction may affect community functional integrity, as its role in southern ecological networks will be vacant.
Note:	Altres ajuts: CESAM/UID/ AMB/50017
Note:	Altres ajuts: CESAM/UID/BIA/00329/2013
Note:	Altres ajuts: POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007638
Note:	Altres ajuts: FEDER/PT2020
Note:	Altres ajuts: FCT/MCTES/SFRH/BD/98387/2013
Rights:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Subject:	Teixons ; Canvis climàtics ; Animals -- Influència del clima
Published in:	Scientific reports, Vol. 9 Núm. 1 (january 2019) , p. 3155, ISSN 2045-2322

DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-39713-1
PMID: 30816237

15 p, 2.2 MB

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