On confinement and quarantine concerns on an seiar epidemic model with simulated parameterizations for the covid-19 pandemic
De la Sen, Manuel (Universidad del País Vasco. Instituto de Investigación y Desarrollo de Procesos)
Ibeas, Asier (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Telecomunicació i Enginyeria de Sistemes)
Agarwal, Ravi P. (Texas A & M University. Department of Mathematics)

Date:	2020
Abstract:	This paper firstly studies an SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) epidemic model without demography and with no disease mortality under both total and under partial quarantine of the susceptible subpopulation or of both the susceptible and the infectious ones in order to satisfy the hospital availability requirements on bed disposal and other necessary treatment means for the seriously infectious subpopulations. The seriously infectious individuals are assumed to be a part of the total infectious being described by a time-varying proportional function. A time-varying upper-bound of those seriously infected individuals has to be satisfied as objective by either a total confinement or partial quarantine intervention of the susceptible subpopulation. Afterwards, a new extended SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) epidemic model, which is referred to as an SEIAR (susceptible-exposed-symptomatic infectious-asymptomatic infectious-recovered) epidemic model with demography and disease mortality is given and focused on so as to extend the above developed ideas on the SIR model. A proportionally gain in the model parameterization is assumed to distribute the transition from the exposed to the infectious into the two infectious individuals (namely, symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals). Such a model is evaluated under total or partial quarantines of all or of some of the subpopulations which have the effect of decreasing the number of contagions. Simulated numerical examples are also discussed related to model parameterizations of usefulness related to the current COVID-19 pandemic outbreaks.
Grants:	Agencia Estatal de Investigación RTI2018-094336-B-I00 Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación COV20/01213
Rights:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Subject:	SEIAR epidemic model ; Confinement intervention ; Quarantine intervention ; COVID-19 ; Mathematical modelling ; Numerical modelling
Published in:	Symmetry, Vol. 12, Issue 10 (October 2020) , art. 1646, ISSN 2073-8994

DOI: 10.3390/sym12101646

33 p, 4.0 MB

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