Inference using simulated neural moments
Creel, Michael (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament d'Economia i d'Història Econòmica)

Date:	2021
Abstract:	This paper studies method of simulated moments (MSM) estimators that are implemented using Bayesian methods, specifically Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Motivation and theory for the methods is provided by Chernozhukov and Hong (2003). The paper shows, experimentally, that confidence intervals using these methods may have coverage which is far from the nominal level, a result which has parallels in the literature that studies overidentified GMM estimators. A neural network may be used to reduce the dimension of an initial set of moments to the minimum number that maintains identification, as in Creel (2017). When MSM-MCMC estimation and inference is based on such moments, and using a continuously updating criteria function, confidence intervals have statistically correct coverage in all cases studied. The methods are illustrated by application to several test models, including a small DSGE model, and to a jump-diffusion model for returns of the S&P 500 index.
Grants:	Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca 2017/SGR-1765
Note:	Altres ajuts: Government of Spain/FEDER PGC2018-094364-B-I00
Rights:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Subject:	Neural networks ; Laplace-type estimators ; Approximate Bayesian computing ; Simulated moments ; Jump diffusion
Published in:	Econometrics, Vol. 9 Núm. 4 (2021) , p. 35, ISSN 2225-1146

DOI: 10.3390/econometrics9040035

15 p, 533.3 KB

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