A 2,000-year Bayesian NAO reconstruction from the Iberian Peninsula
Hernández, Armand (Geosciences Barcelona)
Sánchez-López, Guiomar (Geosciences Barcelona)
Pla-Rabes, Sergi (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Comas-Bru, Laia (University of Reading. School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Sciences)
Parnell, Andrew (Maynooth University. Hamilton Institute)
Cahill, Niamh (Maynooth University. Department of Mathematics and Statistics)
Geyer, Adelina (Geosciences Barcelona)
Trigo, Ricardo M. (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. Departamento de Meteorologia)
Giralt, Santiago (Geosciences Barcelona)

Fecha:	2020
Resumen:	The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the major atmospheric mode that controls winter European climate variability because its strength and phase determine regional temperature, precipitation and storm tracks. The NAO spatial structure and associated climatic impacts over Europe are not stationary making it crucial to understanding its past evolution in order to improve the predictability of future scenarios. In this regard, there has been a dramatic increase in the number of studies aimed at reconstructing past NAO variability, but the information related to decadal-scale NAO evolution beyond the last millennium is scarce and inconclusive. We present a new 2,000-year multi-annual, proxy-based reconstruction of local NAO impact, with associated uncertainties, obtained by a Bayesian approach. This new local NAO reconstruction is obtained from a mountain lacustrine sedimentary archive of the Iberian Peninsula. This geographical area is not included in previous NAO reconstructions despite being a widely used region for instrumental-based NAO measurements. We assess the main external forcings (i. e. , volcanic eruptions and solar activity) on NAO variability which, on a decadal scale, show that a low number of sunspots correlate to low NAO values. By comparison with other previously published NAO reconstructions in our analyses we can test the stationarity of the solar influence on the NAO signal across a latitudinal gradient based on the position of the employed archives for each NAO reconstruction. Inconclusive results on the volcanic forcing on NAO variability over decadal time-scales indicates the need for further studies. Moreover, we highlight the potential role of other North Atlantic modes of variability (i. e. , East Atlantic pattern) on the non-stationary behaviour of the NAO throughout the Common Era, likely via solar forcing.
Ayudas:	Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación CGL2010-15767 Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad CGL2013-40608-R Agencia Estatal de Investigación CGL2016-75281-C2-1-R Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca 2016/BP-00023 Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad RYC-2012-11024 Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad CGL2015-72629-EXP
Derechos:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Lengua:	Anglès
Documento:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Materia:	Climate sciences ; Palaeoclimate
Publicado en:	Scientific reports, Vol. 10 (September 2020) , art. 14961, ISSN 2045-2322

DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-71372-5
PMID: 32917916

15 p, 4.2 MB

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Documentos de investigación > Documentos de los grupos de investigación de la UAB > Centros y grupos de investigación (producción científica) > Ciencias > CREAF (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
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