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Date: | 2020 |
Abstract: | The present paper introduces a new model used to study and analyse the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) epidemic-reported-data from Spain. This is a Hidden Markov Model whose hidden layer is a regeneration process with Poisson immigration, Po-INAR(1), together with a mechanism that allows the estimation of the under-reporting in non-stationary count time series. A novelty of the model is that the expectation of the unobserved process's innovations is a time-dependent function defined in such a way that information about the spread of an epidemic, as modelled through a Susceptible-Infectious-Removed dynamical system, is incorporated into the model. In addition, the parameter controlling the intensity of the under-reporting is also made to vary with time to adjust to possible seasonality or trend in the data. Maximum likelihood methods are used to estimate the parameters of the model. |
Grants: | Instituto de Salud Carlos III COV20/00115 Agencia Estatal de Investigación RTI2018-096072-B-I00 Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad MDM-2014-0445 Agencia Estatal de Investigación TIN2017-89244-R Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca 2017/SGR-856 |
Rights: | Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original. |
Language: | Anglès |
Document: | Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada |
Published in: | PloS one, Vol. 15 (December 2020) , art. e0242956, ISSN 1932-6203 |
20 p, 2.7 MB |