Influence of Red and Yellow cards on team performance in elite soccer
Badiella Busquets, Llorenç (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Servei d'Estadística Aplicada)
Puig, Pedro (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Matemàtiques)
Lago Peñas, Carlos (Universidade de Vigo. Facultade de Ciencias da Educación e do Deporte)
Casals, Martí (Universitat de Barcelona. Institut Nacional d'Educació Física de Catalunya (INEFC))

Date:	2022
Abstract:	The aim of the current study is to analyze the effects of red and yellow cards on the scoring rate in elite soccer. The sample was composed of 1826 matches in the top five European leagues. All events were structured in 5-min intervals and were analyzed by means of a Generalized Linear Mixed Model with Poisson distribution, considering the presence of correlated data, where the dependent variable is represented by scoring rate. Team strength and home advantage were considered implicitly by means of a transformation of the betting odds for each game. The model also took into account the goal difference and time evolution. Overall, we found that after a sending off, each team's scoring rate changes significantly, damaging the penalised team and favouring its opponent. When the player who is sent off belongs to the Away team, the impact of a red card is more or less maintained over time intervals. The red card effect, on the other hand, tends to fade over time when the affected team is stronger. The relative difference in scoring rates is also affected by the goal difference and the difference in booked players, being slightly lower for the team going ahead if it has more booked players. Our approach allows estimating the expected cumulative soring rate through time for various red card scenarios. Particularly if a red card is given with 30 min of remaining time, the expected impact is 0. 39 goals if the guilty player is on the visiting team and 0. 50 if he plays for the home team. Coaches and analysts could use this information to establish objectives for players and teams in training and matches and to be prepared for these very different scenarios of numerical superiority or inferiority.
Grants:	Agencia Estatal de Investigación RTI2018-096072-B-I00 Agencia Estatal de Investigación PID2019-104830RB-I00 Agencia Estatal de Investigación CEX2020-001084-M
Note:	Altres ajuts: acords transformatius de la UAB
Note:	Open Access Funding provided by Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. This work was partially funded by the grants RTI2018-096072-B-I00 and PID2019-104830RB-I00/AEI DOI:10.13039/501100011033 from the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities, and the Severo Ochoa and María de Maeztu Program for Centers and Units of Excellence in R &D (CEX2020-001084-M) from the Spanish Research Agency.
Rights:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Subject:	Soccer ; Performance analysis ; Red and yellow cards ; Generalized linear mixed model ; Poisson distribution
Published in:	Annals of Operations Research, (May 2022) , ISSN 1572-9338

DOI: 10.1007/s10479-022-04733-0

17 p, 583.2 KB

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