Why energy models should integrate social and environmental factors : Assessing user needs, omission impacts, and real-word accuracy in the European Union
Süsser, Diana (Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies)
Martin, Nick (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)
Stavrakas, Vassilis (University of Piraeus. Department of Industrial Management and Technology)
Gaschnig, Hannes (National Academy of Science and Engineering)
Talens Peiró, Laura (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)
Flamos, Alexandros (University of Piraeus. Department of Industrial Management and Technology)
Madrid, Cristina (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)
Lilliestam, Johan (Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies)

Date:	2022
Abstract:	Energy models are used to inform and support decisions within the transition to climate neutrality. In recent years, such models have been criticised for being overly techno-centred and ignoring environmental and social factors of the energy transition. Here, we explore and illustrate the impact of ignoring such factors by comparing model results to model user needs and real-world observations. We firstly identify concrete user needs for better representation of environmental and social factors in energy modelling via interviews, a survey and a workshop. Secondly, we explore and illustrate the effects of omitting non-techno-economic factors in modelling by contrasting policy-targeted scenarios with reality in four EU case study examples. We show that by neglecting environmental and social factors, models risk generating overly optimistic and potentially misleading results, for example by suggesting transition speeds far exceeding any speeds observed, or pathways facing hard-to-overcome resource constraints. As such, modelled energy transition pathways that ignore such factors may be neither desirable nor feasible from an environmental and social perspective, and scenarios may be irrelevant in practice. Finally, we discuss a sample of recent energy modelling innovations and call for continued and increased efforts for improved approaches that better represent environmental and social factors in energy modelling and increase the relevance of energy models for informing policymaking.
Grants:	European Commission 837089
Note:	Altres ajuts: acords transformatius de la UAB
Note:	Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-M
Rights:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Subject:	Energy modelling ; Energy planning ; Energy policy ; Ecological crisis ; Social acceptance ; Environmental impacts
Published in:	Energy research & social science, Vol. 92 (October 2022) , art. 102775, ISSN 2214-6296

DOI: 10.1016/j.erss.2022.102775

16 p, 3.9 MB

The record appears in these collections:
Research literature > UAB research groups literature > Research Centres and Groups (research output) > Experimental sciences > Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA) > Sustainability and Environmental Protection (Sostenipra)
Articles > Research articles
Articles > Published articles