A model of protests, revolution, and information
Barberà, Salvador 1946- (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)
Jackson, Matthew O. (Stanford University)

Date:	2019
Description:	45 pàg.
Abstract:	A collective action or revolt succeeds only if sufficiently many people participate. We study how potential revolutionaries' ability to coordinate is affected by what they learn from different sources. We first examine how people learn about the likelihood of a revolution's success by talking to those around themselves, which can either work in favor or against the success of an uprising, depending on the prior beliefs of the agents, the homogeneity of preferences in the population, and the number of contacts. We extend the analysis by examining the effects of homophily on learning: people are more likely to meet others who have similar preferences, undercutting learning. We introduce variants of our model to discuss other ways of learning about the support for a revolution. We discuss why holding mass protests before a revolt provides more informative signals of people's willingness to actively participate than other less costly forms of communication (e. g. , via social media). We also show how outcomes of revolutions in one region can inform citizens of another region and thus trigger (or discourage) neighboring revolutions. We also discuss the role of governments in avoiding revolutions and learning about their citizens' concerns; in particular, by observing the strength of protests and counter-protests.
Grants:	Agencia Estatal de Investigación ECO2017-83534-P Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca 2017/SGR-711
Rights:	Aquest material està protegit per drets d'autor i/o drets afins. Podeu utilitzar aquest material en funció del que permet la legislació de drets d'autor i drets afins d'aplicació al vostre cas. Per a d'altres usos heu d'obtenir permís del(s) titular(s) de drets.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Working paper ; recerca ; Versió de l'autor
Subject:	Revolution ; Demonstration ; Protests ; Strikes ; Arab Spring
Published in:	Quarterly Journal of Political Science, Vol.15, Num.3(2020) , p.297-335, ISSN 1554-0634

DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2732864
DOI: 10.1561/100.00019002

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Research literature > Working papers