Relative decline in density of Northern Hemisphere tree species in warm and arid regions of their climate niches
Astigarraga, Julen (Universidad de Alcalá)
Esquivel-Muelbert, Adriane (University of Birmingham)
Ruiz-Benito, Paloma (Universidad de Alcalá)
Rodríguez-Sánchez, Francisco (Universidad de Sevilla)
Zavala, Miguel A. (Universidad de Alcalá. Instituto Franklin)
Vilà-Cabrera, Albert (Centre de Recerca Ecològica i d'Aplicacions Forestals)
Schelhaas, Mart-Jan (Wageningen University and Research)
Kunstler, Georges (Université Grenoble Alpes)
Woodall, Christopher W. (Northern Research Station)
Cienciala, Emil (Global Change Research Institute CAS)
Dahlgren, Jonas (Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences)
Govaere, Leen (Agency for Nature and Forests)
König, Louis A. (Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems)
Lehtonen, Aleksi (Natural Resources Institute Finland)
Talarczyk, Andrzej (Taxus IT)
Liu, Daijun (University of Vienna)
Pugh, Thomas A. M. (Lund University)

Fecha:	2024
Resumen:	Although climate-related tree species distribution shifts have long been expected, observational evidence of the anticipated changes toward cold and wet regions has been relatively elusive. Our analysis of 73 widely distributed species in 126,422 forest inventory plots across Europe and North America reveals a reorganization of density favoring colder and wetter regions of their climatic niches. However, contrary to the anticipated change toward smaller individuals over time due to climate change, our findings reveal a tendency toward increasing tree size over recent decades. The species-specific information on the direction and magnitude of climate-driven changes in density can form an important input for conservation, management, and restoration plans in an era of unprecedented human-caused environmental change. Although climate change is expected to drive tree species toward colder and wetter regions of their distribution, broadscale empirical evidence is lacking. One possibility is that past and present human activities in forests obscure or alter the effects of climate. Here, using data from more than two million monitored trees from 73 widely distributed species, we quantify changes in tree species density within their climatic niches across Northern Hemisphere forests. We observe a reduction in mean density across species, coupled with a tendency toward increasing tree size. However, the direction and magnitude of changes in density exhibit considerable variability between species, influenced by stand development that results from previous stand-level disturbances. Remarkably, when accounting for stand development, our findings show a significant change in density toward cold and wet climatic conditions for 43% of the species, compared to only 14% of species significantly changing their density toward warm and arid conditions in both early- and late-development stands. The observed changes in climate-driven density showed no clear association with species traits related to drought tolerance, recruitment and dispersal capacity, or resource use, nor with the temperature or aridity affiliation of the species, leaving the underlying mechanism uncertain. Forest conservation policies and associated management strategies might want to consider anticipated long-term species range shifts alongside the integration of contemporary within-distribution density changes.
Ayudas:	Agencia Estatal de Investigación PID2021-123675OB-C41 European Commission 758873 Agencia Estatal de Investigación IJC2018-038508-I
Derechos:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, i la comunicació pública de l'obra, sempre que no sigui amb finalitats comercials, i sempre que es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original. No es permet la creació d'obres derivades.
Lengua:	Anglès
Documento:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Materia:	Species density ; Climate change ; Climatic sensitivity ; Stand development ; Forest dynamics
Publicado en:	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 121, Issue 28 (July 2024) , art. e2314899121, ISSN 1091-6490

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2314899121
PMID: 38954552

8 p, 1.5 MB

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