Affective polarization in the face of crisis : the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and de-escalation policies in Spain
Galais Gonzàlez, Carolina (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Ciència Política i de Dret Públic)
Balinhas, Daniel (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Ciència Política i de Dret Públic)

Date:	2025
Abstract:	Previous research on Affective Polarization (AP) has often overlooked short-term variations due to external shocks and crises, which have significant implications for political stability, social cohesion, and democratic resilience. This paper leverages three waves of a panel survey conducted yearly in Spain to examine the evolution of AP during the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate whether the pandemic had polarizing effects on the electorate and find that AP intensified primarily among individuals with extreme evaluations of the government's management, as well as among those who perceived the pandemic as a threat to the country's economy. Additionally, drawing from the literature on affective depolarization and using a Difference-in-Differences design, we identify a significant seven-percentage-point reduction in aggregate AP levels following the implementation of COVID-19 de-escalation measures. Our analyses indicate that reductions in perceived left-right and issue-based polarization mediated this effect. These findings underscore the complexity of AP dynamics during crises, showing how aggregate depolarization can occur alongside individual-level polarization, and emphasize the importance of short-term factors in shaping political polarization.
Grants:	Agencia Estatal de Investigación PID2020-113030RB-I00
Rights:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, i la comunicació pública de l'obra, sempre que no sigui amb finalitats comercials, i sempre que es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original. No es permet la creació d'obres derivades.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Subject:	Affective polarization ; Depolarization ; Panel data ; Public opinion
Published in:	International journal of public opinion research, Vol. 37 Núm. 1 (2025) , p. edae059, ISSN 1471-6909

DOI: 10.1093/ijpor/edae059

12 p, 825.9 KB

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