The employment effects of a means-tested guaranteed income policy
Verlaat, Timo (Utrecht University School of Economics (Països Baixos))
Todeschini, Federico (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
Ramos Morilla, Xavier (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament d'Economia Aplicada)

Date:	2025
Abstract:	Through a randomized controlled trial, we study the labor market effects of a generous means-tested guaranteed income policy targeting low-income families in Barcelona. Two years into the program, beneficiaries are 22 % less likely to work compared to subjects assigned to a control group. A lower phase-out of transfers attenuates negative employment effects and reduces the government cost per euro of benefit by two-thirds. Participation elasticities for a family of four range from 0. 39 to 0. 49. Treatment effects persisted at least 6 months after the program ended. We find indications that effects are driven by subjects with care duties, suggesting substitution of labor for care tasks.
Grants:	Agencia Estatal de Investigación PID2022-137352NB-C41 Generalitat de Catalunya 2021 / SGR-0189
Note:	Altres ajuts: acords transformatius de la UAB
Note:	Altres ajuts: European Unions' Urban Innovative Actions program (UIA-01031-2016) ; Dutch Research Council (406.16.538)
Rights:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, sempre que no sigui amb finalitats comercials, i sempre que es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Subject:	Welfare ; Cash transfer ; Policy evaluation ; RCT ; Labor supply
Published in:	Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 248 (august 2025) , p. 105420, ISSN 1879-2316

DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105420

27 p, 3.4 MB

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