Carbon leakage in production networks under asymmetric climate policies
Grugni, Elisa (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)
Savin, Ivan (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)
van den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M. (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)

Date:	2026
Abstract:	Climate policies are typically designed at the regional level. This generates differences in implicit carbon prices across countries that can alter the structure of trade patterns and undermine the effectiveness of environmental regulations through carbon leakage. The paper examines the macroeconomic consequences of asymmetric climate policies, focusing on how they affect the international structure of production. The purpose is twofold: assessing the impact of uncoordinated climate policies on the outsourcing of production and studying the effectiveness of a border carbon adjustment mechanism aimed at safeguarding countries' competitiveness. To this end, we develop and simulate a theoretical agent-based model in which supply chains are endogenously determined by downstream firms' sourcing strategies; such firms select a supplier of intermediate goods, whose production generates emissions and is subjected to environmental regulations. Focusing on bottom-up interactions among heterogeneous and boundedly rational agents, this approach provides novel insights into how environmental policies rewire firm linkages within global production networks, and how this reshaping affects overall carbon emissions.
Grants:	European Commission 956107
Note:	Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-M
Rights:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Subject:	Agent-based modeling ; Border carbon adjustment ; Climate change ; Global value chains ; SDG 13 - Climate Action
Published in:	Journal of economic dynamics & control, Vol. 183 (February 2026) , art. 105241, ISSN 0165-1889

DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105241

24 p, 5.0 MB

The record appears in these collections:
Research literature > UAB research groups literature > Research Centres and Groups (research output) > Experimental sciences > Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA) > Environmental and Climate Economics (ECE)
Articles > Research articles
Articles > Published articles