A more conservative country? Asylum seekers and voting in the UK
Romarri, Alessio Ferdinando Federico (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament d'Economia Aplicada)
Fasani, Francesco Maria (Universita degli Studi di Milano)
Ferro, Simone (Universita degli Studi di Milano)
Pasini, Elisabetta (Alma Economics)
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament d'Economia Aplicada

Data:	2025
Descripció:	60 pag.
Resum:	This paper provides the first causal evaluation of the political impact of asylum seekers in the UK. Although they are dispersed across areas on a no-choice basis, political bargaining between central and local governments introduces potential endogeneity in their allocation. We address this concern with a novel IV strategy that exploits predetermined public-housing characteristics. Focusing on 2004-2019, we estimate a sizeable increase in the Conservative-Labour vote share gap in local elections: a one within-area standard deviation increase in dispersed asylum seekers widens the gap by 3. 1 percentage points in favour of the Conservatives. We observe a similar shift to the right in national elections and longitudinal survey data on voting intentions, along with an increase in the Leave vote in the Brexit referendum. Electoral gains are observed for UKIP as well, although this finding is less robust. No effect is detected for non-dispersed asylum seekers, who forgo subsidised housing and make independent residential choices. Turning to mechanisms, voters move to the right without becoming more hostile towards foreigners. Leveraging the universe of MPs' speeches, we show that representatives from more exposed areas emphasise asylum and migration more, with no systematic change in tone or content. This heightened salience appears to shape voters' choices, with Conservative MPs particularly effective at channelling discontent.
Nota:	The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support from: Nuffield Foundation (grant reference number: OPD/42944.) and the Italian Ministry of University and Research (MUR) under the Department of Excellence 2023-2027 grant and under PRIN project G53D23001980006. We received very useful suggestions and comments from Apurav Bhatiya, Christian Dustmann, Anthony Edo, Timothy Hatton, Matteo Sandi, Marco Tabellini, Riccardo Turati, and participants to seminars and conferences, including: Workshop on the Political Economy of Migration (ENS Lyon), Bocconi University, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, 3rd Workshop on Immigration, Integration ,and Attitudes (ZEW,Mannheim),1st Migration Forum (RF Berlin), AIEL 40th Conference (Bicocca University, Milan), Genova University. An earlier version of this paper was circulated with the title "The Politics of Asylum Seekers Allocation? Evidence from the UK".
Drets:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, i la comunicació pública de l'obra, sempre que no sigui amb finalitats comercials, i sempre que es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original. No es permet la creació d'obres derivades.
Llengua:	Anglès
Col·lecció:	Document de treball (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament d'Economia Aplicada) ; 20.25
Document:	Working paper
Matèria:	Refugees ; Elections ; Brexit ; MP speeches

Adreça alternativa: https://ideas.repec.org/p/uab/wprdea/wpdea2520.html

60 p, 4.6 MB

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