Coexistence of Abies alba (Mill.) - Fagus sylvatica (L.) and climate change impact in the Iberian Peninsula : a climatic-niche perspective approach
Serra Díaz, Josep M. (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Biologia Animal, de Biologia Vegetal i d'Ecologia)
Ninyerola i Casals, Miquel (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Biologia Animal, de Biologia Vegetal i d'Ecologia)
Lloret Maya, Francisco (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament de Biologia Animal, de Biologia Vegetal i d'Ecologia)

Date:	2012
Abstract:	Abies alba Mill. (European silver fir) and Fagus sylvatica L. (beech)are Eurosiberian species dispersed over the Iberian Peninsula. Climate change predictions indicate a rise in temperature and a decrease in precipitation in this region, threatening the future existence of these species. In the present study we analyzed the future topo-climatic suitability of Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and the mixed forests of these two species, using the General Linear Models technique and data from the third National Forest Inventory (Ministerio de Agricultura PyA 2007). We considered two modeling approaches based on niche theory: modeling community (Abieti-Fagetum) and overlapping individual species models. General trends showed an overall decrease in both species' topo-climatic suitability and indicated that the Pyrenees will play a crucial role as a climatic refuge. The modeling approaches markedly differed, however, in their current and future spatial agreement. Despite good accuracy results, community modeling through co-occurrence do not encompass the environmental space of individual species prejudicing future assessments in new environmental situations, suggesting a need for future studies in community modeling.
Rights:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Language:	Català
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Subject:	Species distribution ; Co-occurrence ; Abies alba ; Fagus sylvatica ; Climate change
Published in:	Flora, Vol. 207, Núm. 1 (January 2012) , p. 10-18, ISSN 0367-2530

DOI: 10.1016/j.flora.2011.10.002

Pre-print version 28 p, 1.1 MB

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Research literature > UAB research groups literature > Research Centres and Groups (research output) > Experimental sciences > Grupo de Investigación Métodos y Aplicaciones en Teledetección y Sistemas de Información Geográfica (GRUMETS)
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Articles > Published articles