Epidemiological Investigation of Bovine Tuberculosis Herd Breakdowns in Spain 2009/2011
Guta Debela, Sintayehu
Casal i Fàbrega, Jordi (Institut de Recerca i Tecnologia Agroalimentàries. Centre de Recerca en Sanitat Animal)
Napp Avelli, Sebastián (Institut de Recerca i Tecnologia Agroalimentàries. Centre de Recerca en Sanitat Animal)
Sáez, José Luis
Garcia-Saenz, Ariadna (Institut de Recerca i Tecnologia Agroalimentàries. Centre de Recerca en Sanitat Animal)
Pérez de Val, Bernat (Institut de Recerca i Tecnologia Agroalimentàries. Centre de Recerca en Sanitat Animal)
Romero, Beatriz
Álvarez, Julio
Allepuz Palau, Alberto (Institut de Recerca i Tecnologia Agroalimentàries. Centre de Recerca en Sanitat Animal)

Data:	2014
Resum:	We analyzed the most likely cause of 687 bovine tuberculosis (bTB) breakdowns detected in Spain between 2009 and 2011 (i. e. , 22% of the total number of breakdowns detected during this period). Seven possible causes were considered: i) residual infection; ii) introduction of infected cattle from other herds; iii) sharing of pastures with infected herds; iv) contiguous spread from infected neighbor herds; v) presence of infected goats in the farm; vi) interaction with wildlife reservoirs and vii) contact with an infected human. For each possible cause a decision tree was developed and key questions were included in each of them. Answers to these key questions lead to different events within each decision tree. In order to assess the likelihood of occurrence of the different events a qualitative risk assessment approach was used. For this purpose, an expert opinion workshop was organized and ordinal values, ranging from 0 to 9 (i. e. , null to very high likelihood of occurrence) were assigned. The analysis identified residual infection as the most frequent cause of bTB breakdowns (22. 3%; 95%CI: 19. 4-25. 6), followed by interaction with wildlife reservoirs (13. 1%; 95%CI: 10. 8-15. 8). The introduction of infected cattle, sharing of pastures and contiguous spread from infected neighbour herds were also identified as relevant causes. In 41. 6% (95%CI: 38. 0-45. 4) of the breakdowns the origin of infection remained unknown. Veterinary officers conducting bTB breakdown investigations have to state their opinion about the possible cause of each breakdown. Comparison between the results of our analysis and the opinion from veterinary officers revealed a slight concordance. This slight agreement might reflect a lack of harmonized criteria to assess the most likely cause of bTB breakdowns as well as different perceptions about the importance of the possible causes. This is especially relevant in the case of the role of wildlife reservoirs.
Ajuts:	Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación AGL-2010/21098 Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación BES-2011/043628
Drets:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Llengua:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Matèria:	Beef ; Cattle ; Decision trees ; Epidemiology ; Goats ; Spain ; Veterinary epidemiology ; Wildlife
Publicat a:	PloS one, Vol. 9, Issue 8 (August 2014) , p.e104383, ISSN 1932-6203

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0104383
PMID: 25127254

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