On the early epidemic dynamics for pairwise models
Llensa, Carlos (Universitat de Girona. Departament d'Informàtica i Matemàtica Aplicada)
Juher, David (Universitat de Girona. Departament d'Informàtica i Matemàtica Aplicada)
Saldaña, Joan (Universitat de Girona. Departament d'Informàtica i Matemàtica Aplicada)

Date:	2014
Abstract:	The relationship between the basic reproduction number R0 and the exponential growth rate, specific to pair approximation models, is derived for the SIS, SIR and SEIR deterministic models without demography. These models are extended by including a random rewiring of susceptible individuals from infectious (and exposed) neighbours. The derived relationship between the intrinsic growth rate and R0 appears as formally consistent with those derived from homogeneous mixing models, enabling us to measure the transmission potential using the early growth rate of cases. On the other hand, the algebraic expression of R0 for the SEIR pairwise model shows that its value is affected by the average duration of the latent period, in contrast to what happens for the homogeneous mixing SEIR model. Numerical simulations on complex contact networks are performed to check the analytical assumptions and predictions.
Grants:	Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad MTM2011-27739-C04-03 Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca 2009/SGR-345
Rights:	Tots els drets reservats.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió acceptada per publicar
Subject:	Basic reproduction number ; Initial epidemic growth rate ; Pairwise epidemic models ; SEIR model
Published in:	Journal of Theoretical Biology, Vol. 352 (2014) , p. 71-81, ISSN 0022-5193

DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2014.02.037

Postprint 30 p, 690.3 KB

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