A multilayer temporal network model for STD spreading accounting for permanent and casual partners
Vajdi, Aram (Kansas State University. Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering (USA))
Juher, David (Universitat de Girona. Departament d'Informàtica, Matemàtica Aplicada i Estadística)
Saldaña, Joan (Universitat de Girona. Departament d'Informàtica, Matemàtica Aplicada i Estadística)
Scoglio, Caterina (Kansas State University. Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering (USA))

Date:	2020
Abstract:	Sexually transmitted diseases (STD) modeling has used contact networks to study the spreading of pathogens. Recent findings have stressed the increasing role of casual partners, often enabled by online dating applications. We study the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic model -appropriate for STDs- over a two-layer network aimed to account for the effect of casual partners in the spreading of STDs. In this novel model, individuals have a set of steady partnerships (links in layer 1). At certain rates, every individual can switch between active and inactive states and, while active, it establishes casual partnerships with some probability with active neighbors in layer 2 (whose links can be thought as potential casual partnerships). Individuals that are not engaged in casual partnerships are classified as inactive, and the transitions between active and inactive states are independent of their infectious state. We use mean-field equations as well as stochastic simulations to derive the epidemic threshold, which decreases substantially with the addition of the second layer. Interestingly, for a given expected number of casual partnerships, which depends on the probabilities of being active, this threshold turns out to depend on the duration of casual partnerships: the longer they are, the lower the threshold.
Grants:	Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad MTM2017-86795-C3-1-P Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca 2017/SGR-1617 Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca 2017/SGR-1392
Rights:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Language:	Anglès
Document:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Published in:	Scientific reports, Vol. 10 (March 2020) , art. 3846, ISSN 2045-2322

DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-60790-0
PMID: 32123251

12 p, 1.2 MB

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Research literature > UAB research groups literature > Research Centres and Groups (research output) > Experimental sciences > GSD (Dynamical systems)
Articles > Research articles
Articles > Published articles