Socio-technical discourses of European electricity decarbonization : contesting narrative credibility and legitimacy with quantitative story-telling
Renner, Ansel (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)
Giampietro, Mario (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals)

Fecha:	2020
Resumen:	This paper presents an innovative approach to the responsible use of quantitative analysis when dealing with the governance of sustainability. Rather than using complicated models which try to predict and control the future evolution of complex adaptive systems, quantitative story-telling is proposed to check, first of all, the plausibility of proposed policies. As a case study, we check the plausibility of 'a radical decarbonization of the European economy based on a quick deployment of alternative sources of electrical energy generation'. Although our case study includes a high-level set of quantitative results, it is primarily methodological. The procedure of quantitative story-telling includes: (1) identification of the narratives used to inform policy; (2) identification of the relevant factors determining the feasibility, viability and desirability of expected results; (3) a quantitative analysis which falsifies at least one of these three factors, indicating an implausibility of the expected results; and (4) identification of knowledge gaps in the existing discussions over the issue. The modern European energy system does need an urgent and radical transformation. However, before imposing drastic and ambitious policies, it is essential to check the quality of the diagnosis. Our analysis flags the existence of a few reasons for concern with regard to the current story-telling.
Ayudas:	European Commission 689669 Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad FPU15/03376 Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad MDM-2015-0552
Nota:	Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-M
Derechos:	Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.
Lengua:	Anglès
Documento:	Article ; recerca ; Versió publicada
Materia:	Quantitative story-telling ; Renewable energy ; Storage ; Complexity ; Electricity
Publicado en:	Energy research & social science, Vol. 59 (Jan. 2020) , art. 101279, ISSN 2214-6296

DOI: 10.1016/j.erss.2019.101279

14 p, 2.8 MB

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Documentos de investigación > Documentos de los grupos de investigación de la UAB > Centros y grupos de investigación (producción científica) > Ciencias > Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA) > Integrated Assessment: Sociology, Technology and the Environment (IASTE)
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